After a very successful road trip in which Tampa Bay swept both the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, the Rays return home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field where they will start a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday. The Rays are in the midst of an 11-game win streak, the second-longest win streak in franchise history. The Royals took two of three from the Tigers over the weekend.
Tampa Bay scored 86 runs over the last 10 games, good for an average of 8.6 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Rays BABIP, wRC+, and wRAA also increased to lucky, yet potentially unsustainable, levels over the last two weeks. In short, Rays’ hitters have feasted on poor pitching, making opposing hurlers pay for any mistakes they left in the zone. Good teams do that, and the Rays are a good team. Look at their cheat-code numbers over the last two weeks — a .506 SLG, 24 homers, 32 doubles, and 82 runs … and that’s not even including the run production in Monday’s 14-8 series finale against Toronto.
Will that production fall off at some point? Sure. But I’ll be damned if this ride hasn’t been fun. At the end of the day, the Rays have banked 11 wins over this stretch, which is important when their wins slow down and come at a .666 win percentage, for example (the devil is in the details). Remember, Tampa Bay simply needs to stay competitive until June or July when their schedule becomes easier. At that point, they should be able to put together a run heading into the postseason. Anything above and beyond all that is icing on the cake … and refreshing icing at that.
Kansas City has been one of the most confounding teams in baseball this season. The Royals got off to a red-hot start before suffering an 11-game skid to fall behind Cleveland and Chicago in the AL Central. Since then, they have won six of their last nine games to improve to 22-23 on the season.
The Rays took two of three from the Royals in April, outscoring them 26-17 in the process.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Rich “Dick Mountain” Hill (3-1, 3.89 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.90 ERA), and Shane McClanahan (1-0, 4.03 ERA). Mike Matheny will counter with Brad Keller (3-4, 6.52 ERA), Mike Minor (3-2, 5.14 ERA), and Brady Singer (2-3, 4.00 ERA).
Rich Hill allowed one earned run on two hits and four walks while striking out four across six innings on Thursday against the Orioles. Hill put together another strong outing and has now allowed just three earned runs across his last 27-2/3 innings of work. His four walks indicate some shakiness, although he still managed to record 56 strikes on 90 total pitches (62% strike rate). He also tossed 13 of the 23 first-pitch strikes (57% first-pitch strike rate). For the season, Hill has lowered his ERA from +8 to 3.89 with a 2.65 K/BB across 44 frames. The worst start of his season came on April 20, ironically against the Royals, when he allowed four runs on four hits and a walk across two innings. He’ll look to avenge that outing in the series opener on Tuesday.
Brad Keller allowed three earned runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out four across 5-1/3 innings on Wednesday against the Brewers. Keller was knocked around in the ballgame, with four of the eight hits he surrendered going for extra bases. Even so, he avoided a disastrous start by getting timely outs and limiting Milwaukee to just three earned runs. Be that as it may, through nine starts this season, the right-hander has completed six innings twice and at least five innings on five occasions. Keller has logged a 6.52 ERA across 38-2/3 innings on the season. He is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA in four career outings (three starts) against Tampa Bay. He allowed five runs on three hits and three walks against the Rays on April 20. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-4), Ji-Man Cjoi 1-2, BB), Yandy Díaz (3-8, 3 EBI, BB)
Tyler Glasnow coughed up five runs on nine hits and a walk over 4-2/3 innings on Friday in Dunedin. He struck out just two. The Jays jumped on Glasnow for four runs through the first three frames, but the Rays were able to tie things up after he exited the contest. The two strikeouts were his lowest total of the year by far — he hadn’t fanned fewer than seven in any of his previous nine turns — while the five earned runs tied his season-high. Despite the speed bump, Glasnow maintains a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 4.14 K/BB through 62 innings on the season. He is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in one career outing against Kansas City.
Mike Minor allowed four runs on 10 hits over six innings on Friday against Detroit. He struck out eight. Minor served up a solo homer to Miguel Cabrera in the second inning before allowing two RBI singles in the fourth. He left the game with no outs in the seventh after giving up two base hits that eventually led to Cabrera’s grand slam off Greg Holland. Minor has struck out at least seven batters in three consecutive starts, giving him a 3.06 K/BB this season. He maintains a 5.14 ERA on the season and is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three career outings (4-1/3 innings) against the Rays. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (1-2)
Shane McClanahan allowed one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out four across five innings Saturday against the Blue Jays. McClanahan allowed his only run to score in the first inning on a two-out double by Teoscar Hernandez. While the rookie has struggled with retiring batters with two outs, he got away with minimal damage Saturday. It was a good bounce-back performance from his last turn against the Mets in which he allowed four runs on a pair of homers. The 24-year-old has a 4.03 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with a 10.5 K/9 across 22-1/3 innings this season.
Brady Singer allowed three runs on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts on Saturday across 6-1/3 innings against the Tiger. Singer was effective in his second consecutive quality start, although an RBI single by Harold Castro in the fifth inning cut the Royals’ lead to one run. The right-hander picked up his first win on April 24. He now maintains a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 2.71 K/BB across 45 innings (nine starts) on the season. He has never faced the Rays. Singer relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph sinker and an 85 mph slider with two-plane movement.