After sweeping the Minnesota Twins, the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Texas Rangers into the Trop Friday, in what could be viewed as a preview of the 2023 postseason. The Rangers took two of three from the Cardinals in their most recent series.
At 46-19 on the season, the Rays enter play a season-high 27 games above .500, and 6.5 games up on the second-place Orioles in the AL East. The Rangers enter play 40-21, 5.0 games up on the second-place Astros in the AL West.
In a rebuttal of the critics that say “Tampa Bay doesn’t play anyone,” since the start of May, the Rays are 26-13 against teams with a record of .500 or better — by far the most wins of any team in MLB. The next closest team is Texas at 14-10. Nine of their 11 series wins have been against winning teams.
Their most recent series win came against the first-place Twins, against whom Tampa Bay put up 13 runs (4.33 runs per game), and allowed just four.
The team is averaging 5.75 runs per game (second only to the Rangers) and slashing a combined .263 BA/.338 OBP/.474 SLG/.812 OPS line. And while some of the offensive numbers have fallen off of late (you can see the offensive peripherals of both teams over the last seven days below), they still lead the league in homers (108) and stolen bases (83).
Meanwhile, Texas is scoring 6.33 runs per game (first) and slashing a combined .277 BA/.344 OBP/.458 SLG/.802 OPS line. They are seventh in the league in homers (79), although they aren’t really that active on the base paths (24 stolen bases).
Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is getting back to where it should be. Overall, the Rays boast a 3.53 ERA and a 4.03 FIP (2.94 ERA and a 3.47 FIP for the starters, 4.19 ERA and a 4.65 FIP for the relievers) and a 1.21 WHIP, with 20 quality starts. Those numbers look dramatically better over the last seven days, with the Rays pitching staff maintaining an overall 2.18 ERA and a 3.40 FIP (1.36 ERA and a 2.98 FIP for the starters, 3.10 ERA and a 3.87 FIP for the relievers).
The Rangers’ pitching staff is very good, too, sporting an overall 3.58 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, with a 1.17 WHIP and 31 quality starts. They, too, have been very good over the last week, maintaining an overall 2.67 ERA and a 3.12 FIP (1.91 ERA and a 3.76 FIP for the starters, 4.41 ERA, and a 1.63 FIP for the relievers).
Last season, the Rays went 4-3 against the Rangers with a +1 run differential.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.72 ERA, 2.97 FIP), Taj Bradley (4-2, 3.60 ERA, 3.12 FIP), and Shane McClanahan (9-1, 2.02 ERA, 3.51 FIP). Bruce Bochy will counter with Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.03 ERA, 4.78 FIP), Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24 ERA, 2.45 FIP), and Martin Perez (6-1, 3.97 ERA, 4.72 FIP).
Tyler Glasnow allowed one run on four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out six. Making his second start of the season after suffering a grade two oblique strain in Spring Training, Glasnow looked sharp as he tossed 88 pitches (54 strikes, 61% strike rate, 12 whiffs, 14% SwStr%). The right-hander had a good pitch mix and got five of his six strikeouts on offspeed pitches. It was an encouraging performance as he continues to ramp things up. Glasnow now maintains a 3.72 ERA and a 2.98 FIP through 9.2 innings, with a 3.5 K/BB, and a 1.34 WHIP. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers.
Andrew Heaney allowed three runs on six hits and four walks over three innings on Saturday against the Mariners. He struck out five. Heaney tied his season high with four walks and completed his fewest innings since the season opener when he surrendered seven runs over 2.2 innings. Since his horrendous season debut, the southpaw has been really sharp, posting a 3.09 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and 2.52 K/BB over his last 10 appearances (55.1 innings). Heaney relies primarily on a whiffy 92 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action, an 84 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, and an 82 mph slider that has short glove-side cut. Heaney is 0-3 with a 3.67 ERA in five career starts against the Rays. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (1-4, BB)
Taj Bradley allowed two runs on six hits and three walks over five innings against the Red Sox. He struck out six. Bradley allowed two runs or fewer and finished five innings for the fourth time this season. Per Rays pitching coach, Kyle Snyder, Bradley continues to evolve — he is increasing his curveball usage, and using his above-average changeup more often against left-handed hitters. The rookie has made seven appearances across two stints at the big-league level this season, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 3.12 FIP, with a 1.17 WHIP, and 6.00 K/BB over 35 innings.
Nathan Eovaldi allowed one hit and struck out seven over six scoreless frames on Saturday against the Mariners. Eovaldi was given plenty of run support early on and exited the contest with a 12-0 lead after tossing six dominant frames. This was his fifth scoreless outing of the season, all of which have come in his last seven starts. He’s won six times over that stretch. Eovaldi maintains a 2.24 ERA and a 2.45 FIP, with a 0.93 WHIP, and 5.5 K/BB through 80.1 innings over 12 appearances this season. He relies primarily on a 96 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and arm-side run and a hard 89 mph splitter that has some natural sink, while also mixing in a 92 mph cutter, and a 77 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite. The former Ray is 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA in 15 career outings (13 starts) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Josh Lowe (1-1), Manuel Margot (2-7), Francisco Mejía (2-7, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), José Siri (1-3), Taylor Walls (1-2, 2B)
Shane McClanahan allowed one run on five hits and two walks over six innings against the Red Sox on Monday. He struck out five. McLanahan has only allowed more than two runs once in 13 starts this season. The lone blemish on his line Monday came on Justin Turner’s solo homer run in the sixth inning. McLanahan now boasts a pristine 2.02 ERA and a 3.51 FIP, with a 1.15 WHIP, and a 3.00 K/BB over 75.2 innings this season.
Martin Perez allowed an unearned run on three hits and one walk over seven innings against St. Louis on Monday. He struck out five batters. Perez tossed arguably his best game of the campaign, giving up a season-low three hits and tying a season-high by completing seven frames. The only run he allowed was unearned, and he finished with his fifth quality start. Perez bounced back nicely after coughing up six earned runs over 4.2 frames against Detroit his last time out. He maintains a 3.97 ERA and a 4.72 FIP, with a 1.44 WHIP, and a 2.33 K/BB over 68.0 innings this season. Perez relies primarily on a 92 mph sinker, an 84 mph circle change, and an 89 mph cutter. Perez is 4-6 with a 5.46 ERA in 18 career outings (15 starts) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (8-25, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Wander Franco (2-5, 2B, 2 RBI), Francisco Mejía (5-8, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Taylor Walls (2-5)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
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