After a 3-1 road trip to the south side of Chicago, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they are set to start a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday. The Pirates took two of three from the Nationals over the weekend.
At 23-6 on the season, the Rays enter play 17 games over .500 and in first place in the AL East. For their part, the Pirates enter play 20-9 and in first place in the NL Central.
The Rays capped a successful first month of play by putting up 38 runs (9.5 runs per game) across four games against the White Sox pitching staff. Through the month of April, Tampa Bay averaged 6.72 runs per game, while their .281 batting average leads the league. Their .351 OBP also leads the league, as does their .528 slugging percentage.
Big Randy Arozarena has wielded, well…the big bat for Tampa Bay. He leads the team with a .327 batting average, with seven homers, 28 RBI, and a 172 wRC+. However, Josh Lowe (190 wRC+), Harold Ramírez and Yandy Díaz (185 wRC+ respectively), and Taylor Walls (175 wRC+) have all been more productive than Arozarena, at least as wRC+ is concerned.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are off to a surprisingly great start to the season, and they’ve won four of their last five games. Pittsburgh has been more productive than Tampa Bay over the last week, although the team is averaging less than one run per game than the Rays overall at 5.38. Their .264 batting average is fifth in the league, while their .343 OBP is fourth, and their .449 SLG ranks second.
Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .320 batting average with 23 RBI, while Jack Suwinski leads the team with six home runs.
Tampa Bay’s pitching is one of the best in the league, which is a shock to no one. The Rays are giving up 3.17 runs per game, while opponents have a .209 batting average against them, which leads the league. Their 3.10 ERA and 3.60 FIP (3.22 ERA and 3.18 FIP for the starters, and 2.97 ERA and 4.44 FIP for the relievers) are also the best in the league, as is their 1.11 WHIP.
Pittsburgh’s pitching has been good, with the team surrendering 3.72 runs per game. Opponents have a .240 batting average against Pittsburgh, which is 15th in the league. Their 3.55 ERA and 3.80 FIP (3.83 ERA and 3.98 FIP for the starters, and 3.10 ERA and 3.53 FIP for the relievers) are seventh, while their 1.30 WHIP is 16th.
Tampa Bay swept Pittsburgh at the Trop last season, although all three games were close with the Rays putting up just a +4 run differential over the life of the series.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Josh Fleming (0-0, 3.26 ERA, 2.97 FIP) behind opener Javy Guerra, Shane McClanahan (5-0, 2.12 ERA, 3.3.0 FIP), and Zach Eflin (3-0, 3.00 ERA, 3.81 FIP). Derek Shelton will counter with Roasny Contreras (3-1, 3.58 ERA, 3.06 FIP), Mitch Keller (3-0, 3.53 ERA, 3.69 FIP), and Vince Velasquez (4-2, 3.06 ERA, 3.82 FIP).
Josh Fleming followed Calvin Faucher in both of his last two turns as a bulk pitcher, but now he is slated to pitch behind the recently returned Javy Guerra. The left-hander covered a season-high six innings and struck out two while allowing no runs and permitting just five baserunners against the Astros on Wednesday. Fleming tossed 43 of 69 pitches for strikes (62% strike rate) in his best performance of the season. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 2.97 FIP on the season, with a 1.29 WHIP, and 2.5 K/BB through 19.1 innings.
Roansy Contreras allowed two hits and two walks while striking out five across six innings on Wednesday against the Dodgers. Contreras was excellent throughout his appearance, as he allowed only two runners to reach scoring position across the six innings of work. He relied primarily on flyball outs, although he did get 26 combined called and swinging strikes across 87 total pitches. Setting aside a disastrous outing against the Astros on April 10, Contreras has worked at least 5.2 innings while surrendering two runs or fewer earned in his other four turns. All told, he has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 2.00 K/BB across 27.2 frames. Contreras relies primarily on an 83 mph slider that has exceptional depth and short glove-side cut and a 94 mph fourseam fastball, while also mixing in a whiffy 77 mph curveball that has exceptional bite. Key Matchups: Wander Franco (1-3), Josh Lowe (1-2), Isaac Paredes (1-1, 2B, BB)
Shane McClanahan allowed two runs on five hits and two walks over five innings against the White Sox on Thursday. He struck out five in the short outing and threw 51 of 73 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate). McClanahan is now tied with Gerrit Cole and Joe Ryan for the most wins in the league following Thursday’s victory. The southpaw also ranks seventh with 42 strikeouts. Overall, McClanahan maintains a 2.12 ERA and a 3.30 FIP on the season, with a 1.09 WHIP, and a 3.00 K/BB.
Mitch Keller allowed two runs on five hits and a walk over six innings against the Dodgers. He struck out 10. Keller allowed a pair of runs in the first inning but managed to skirt further damage with a 10-punchout performance, setting a new season high. The 27-year-old hurler now has five consecutive quality starts, lowering his ERA to 3.53 and his FIP to 3.69, with a 1.21 WHIP, and 3.33 K/BB over 35.2 innings. He relies primarily on a 91 mph cutter that has some natural sink and strong cutting action and a whiffy 96 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in a 94 mph sinker that has slight arm-side run, an 83 mph slider that has exceptional depth, and a 78 mph curveball that has slight glove-side movement. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-3), Josh Lowe (1-2), Luke Raley (1-2, RBI)
Zach Eflin made his second start since returning from the Injured List and was effective, tossing five innings of two-run ball. He surrendered six hits and two walks on 74 pitches (47 strikes, 64% strike rate) while striking out five. The cold weather in Chicago impacted Eflin’s ability to grip the ball…especially his sinker. In the first inning, after giving up a solo home run to Jake Burger, Eflin uncorked a wayward sinker into Luis Robert’s back. He was able to escape a fourth-inning, one-out, bases-loaded situation that arose after he allowed pair of singles and a walk. The right-hander got Lenyn Sosa to strike out, and Andrew Benintendi to ground out to second to end the frame without any damage to his line. Eflin now owns a 3.00 ERA and a 3.78 FIP on the season, with a 7.00 K/BB, and a 1.14 WHIP across 21 frames.
Vince Velasquez allowed no runs on five hits while striking out five batters over six innings in the second game of a doubleheader on Saturday. He threw 65 of 92 pitches for strikes (71% strike rate). Overall, Valasquez owns a 3.06 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, with a 2.67 K/BB, and a 1.18 WHIP across 32.1 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph fourseam fastball, and an 84 mph slider that has short glove-side cut, while also mixing in a hard 89 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (4-6, 2 2B), Yandy Díaz (1-2, RBI, BB), Wander Franco (1-3), Manuel Margot (1-3, RBI, BB), Francisco Mejía (1-4, 3B, RBI, BB), Harold Ramírez (2-6, HR, 3 RBI, BB)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
Throwing it way back to Born Against’s baby brothers, Universal Order of Armageddon. An artsy punch to the face? You betcha.