After taking two out of three from the Kansas City Royals, and winning 12 of their last 13 overall, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Philadelphia Phillies into the friendly confines of the Trop for a brief two-game interleague series, starting Saturday. The Phillies split a four-game series against the Marlins. The Rays enter the series 12-games over .500 and in first place in the AL East, while Philadelphia enters play a game under .500, in second place in the NL East, and 10-16 on the road.
Things fell into place for the Rays against the Royals. While they scored just three runs total in the first two games, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff limited Kansas City to five runs overall and relinquished exactly zero two-out runs. Meanwhile, the offense was relatively quiet in the first two games of the set, yet they erupted for seven runs on eight hits. Overall, they went 6-for-17 with runners in scoring position, good for a .353 wRISP batting average.
The Phillies have been able to overcome key injuries with their depth on full display, yet key hitter Bryce Harper is out of action. Philadelphia is dealing with injuries and former Ray Brad Miller has taken advantage of his increased playing time, clubbing two home runs along with five RBI in his last five games and is hitting .318 with 14 RBI and a .871 OPS. However, it’s streaky old Brad Miller we are talking about, so take things with a grain of salt.
All told, the Rays have vastly outperformed the Phillies over the last two weeks to the tune of a 143 wRC+ (vs a 90 wRC+), a 26.7 wRAA (vs a -3.3 wRAA), and 96 runs scored (vs 47 runs scored). And while Tampa Bay will have its hands full with Zach Wheeler on the bump in the series opener, the Rays should be able to get to the Phillies’ pen, which has performed to a 4.63 ERA and 4.60 FIP overall (4.89 ERA and 4.79 FIP the last two weeks).
Tampa Bay took all three games against Philadelphia in the truncated 2020 season.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.27 ERA) and Josh Fleming (4-3, 2.88 ERA) the next two days, although he hasn’t named a starter in the series finale, so this could be a fluid situation. Joe Girardi will counter with Zack Wheeler (4-2, 2.38 ERA) and Zach Eflin (2-4, 3.84 ERA).
Ryan Yarbrough allowed three runs on three hits while striking out four over six innings on Monday against the Blue Jays. Yarbrough was staked to five runs of support in the first inning, yet he allowed one run in the second inning and two in the fourth. Still, he left the game with the lead. Yarbrough owns a 4.27 ERA with a 3.5 K/BB across 52-2/3 innings on the season. He is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two career outings (one start) against the Phillies.
Zack Wheeler allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out an eye-popping 12 batters across 7-1/3 frames against the Red Sox on Sunday. The right-hander has now recorded double-digit punchouts in each of his last two starts and has posted a 2.38 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 68 innings this season. Wheeler relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball that has natural sinking action and a hard 91 mph slider with 12-6 movement, while also mixing in a whiffy 97 mph sinker with slight arm-side run and an 81 mph curveball with sharp downward bite. He is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in one career start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-3), Brandon Lowe (1-3, RBI, BB), Manuel Margot (3-9, 2B), Mike Zunino (2-3, RBI)
Josh Fleming followed Wacha with a one-run lead and ultimately tossed six innings of four-run baseball on four hits and a walk while striking out two. Fleming threw 56 of 79 pitches for strikes (71% strike rate). He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against the Phillies.
Zach Eflin surrendered four runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks while striking out six across six innings on Monday against Miami. Eflin wasn’t at the top of his game, although he kept the Phillies in the contest before exiting two runs down. He’s now been saddled with three consecutive losses while allowing 10 earned runs over his last 18 frames. The right-hander relies primarily on a 93 mph sinker with arm-side run and natural sinking action and a hard 88 mph slider with 12-6 movement, while also mixing in a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, an 85 mph changeup with arm-side fade and natural sink, and a 78 mph curveball with glove-side movement. Eflin is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA across 2-2/3 career innings against the Rays. Key Matchup: Mike Brosseau (1-1)
Noteworthiness
— Making mountains out of molehills:
