After a 3-3 road trip, including a 1-2 set in Seattle, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of the Trop, where they start a three-game series against the reigning National League champions on Tuesday. The Phillies dropped two of three to the Nationals over the weekend.
At 57-30 on the season, the Rays enter play 27 games over .500, and 6.0 games up on the second-place Orioles in the division. The Phillies enter play at 44-39 and in third place by 12.5 games in the NL East.
T-Mobile Field continued to be a house of horrors for the Rays over the weekend. Even though the team averaged eight runs per game, and easily could have walked away with two of three, the pitching failed Tampa Bay on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in a pair of ugly losses. Be that as it may, the Rays are in the top three of five different offensive categories: stolen bases (103, first), runs scored (488, second), slugging percentage (.462, second), on-base percentage (.336, third), and team batting average (.264, third). José Siri and Randy Arozarena are the leaders in home runs for Tampa Bay with 16 apiece, while Isaac Paredes and Luke Raley are third with 14 each. The leaders in RBI are Arozarena (58) and Paredes (53). Tampa Bay has hit 305 extra-base hits: 161 doubles, 13 triples, and 131 home runs.
The Rays are expected to welcome Brandon Lowe back to the lineup. In so doing, Vidal Bruján has been optioned to Triple-A Durham. Lowe has not played since June 3 due to a disk herniation in his lower back, which placed him on the 10-day Injured List back on June 5.
In five Minor League rehabilitation games over the past week, Lowe went 4-for-17 with two doubles, three walks, and six strikeouts.
While mostly filling in on the infield, Bruján slashed an ice-cold .177 BA/.222 OBP/.235 SLG/.457 OPS with two doubles and two steals across 12 games.
Much like the Rays, the Phillies put up 24 runs on the Nationals and dropped two of three. Philadelphia’s offense has been middling at best — they have the ninth-best team batting average in baseball (.260) and the ninth-best SLG (.423). However, they struggle to get on base consistently (.324 OBP) and score runs … their 377 runs scored is 15th in baseball. Be that as it may, Nick Castellanos is the most productive hitter for the Phillies with a team-high 26 doubles, one triple, 12 home runs, and a team-best 54 RBI. Kyle Schwarber is still a dangerous hitter, with 22 homers on the season, while Alec Bohm is tied for the lead in RBI with 54.
They’ve also been pretty good over the last seven days, slashing .292 BA/.342 OBP/.537 SLG/.879 OPS with a 134 wRC+.
The Rays went 4-0 against the Phillies the last time the two ball clubs faced one another, in 2021.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Zach Eflin (9-3, 3.29 ERA, 3.25 FIP), Yonny Chirinos (4-3, 3.64 ERA, 5.04 FIP) in some capacity, and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Thursday. Rob Thomson with Aaron Nola (7-5, 4.51 ERA, 4.31 FIP), Taijuan Walker (9-3, 3.93 ERA, 4.35 FIP), and Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 3.26 ERA, 3.19 FIP).
Zach Eflin allowed two runs on seven hits and struck out seven without walking a batter over seven innings on an efficient 83 pitches (66 strikes, 80% strike rate, 12 swinging strikes, 14% SwStr%) Wednesday against the Diamondbacks. Eflin gave up a run in each of the third and fourth innings, and the Rays didn’t get on the board until the ninth inning resulting in just his third no-decision this season. Eflin surrendered 11 runs over 30.1 innings (five starts) in June. He maintains a 3.29 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, with a 1.03 WHIP, and a 6.07 K/BB through 90.1 innings over (15 starts) overall.
Aaron Nola allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out four batters over five innings on 97 pitches (65 strikes, 67% strike rate, 14 swinging strikes, 23% SwStr%) against the Cubs on Wednesday. Nola recorded his shortest outing since going just 3.2 frames on Opening Day, and he needed 97 pitches to get through five frames. Nola’s outing was mostly forgettable — he snapped a 13-game streak of completing at least six frames and tallied his lowest strikeout total since May 14. His ERA is up to 4.51 (with a 4.31 FIP) on the season … a significant drop-off from the 3.25 mark he posted last season. Nola relies primarily on a 79 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite and a 92 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in a 92 mph sinker that has obvious tail and natural sinking action, a firm 85 mph changeup that has slight arm-side fade and some natural sink to it and an 86 mph swing and miss cutter that has heavy sink.
Yonny Chirinos allowed a run on seven hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings on 84 pitches (53 strikes, 63% strike rate, 5 swinging strikes, 6% SwStr%). After Zack Littell opened the game with two scoreless frames, Chirinos delivered six strong frames as the bulk guy, allowing just one run on Lourdes Gurriel’s homer. It was an encouraging effort from the 29-year-old Chirinos after he was tagged for eight runs in his last turn against the Royals. Chirinos lowered his ERA to 3.64 — although that’s belied by a 5.04 FIP — with a 1.20 WHIP, and 1.42 K/BB through 54.1 innings this season.
Taijuan Walker allowed a run on six hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings on 94 pitches (57 strikes, 61% strike rate, 8 swinging strikes, 8% SwStr%) against the Cubs. Walker had an excellent June, allowing just six runs over 36 innings (six starts) and posting a 3.4 K/BB for the month. After some uneven performances early on, he’s settled down with a 3.93 ERA and a 4.35 FIP, with a 1.23 WHIP, and a 2.33 K/BB over 89.1 innings through (17 starts) on the season. Walker relies primarily on an 89 mph hard splitter that has some natural sink to it and slight arm-side fade and a 93 mph sinker that has slight arm-side run, while also mixing in a whiffy 94 mph fourseam fastball, an 88 mph cutter, and an 84 mph slider that has short glove-side cut.
TBA
Cristopher Sanchez allowed two runs on seven hits and one walk over six innings against the Nationals. He struck out six and threw 87 pitches (63 strikes, 2 swinging strikes, 2% SwStr%). Sanchez finished with season highs in innings completed and strikeouts. The 26-year-old isn’t flashy, yet he’s getting results, posting a 3.26 ERA and a 3.19 FIP, with a 1.14 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB across 19.1 frames. Sanchez relies primarily on a 92 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action and an 83 mph 12-6 slider that has some two-plane movement, while also mixing in a whiffy 82 mph changeup that dives down and out of the zone.
The Music That Influenced This Preview
We lost a good one over the weekend. Rick Froberg (Pitchfork, Drive Like Jehu, Hot Snakes, and Obits) passed away in his sleep due to an undiagnosed heart condition. The tandem of Froberg and John Reis is credited with writing some of the most important punk and post hardcore music over the last 30 years. Our thoughts go out to Rick’s family, friends, and bandmates.