After sweeping the Tigers over the weekend, the Tampa Bay Rays will embark on their first road trip of the season — a brief three-gamer up to Washington DC, where they start a series against the Nationals on Monday. The Nationals dropped two of three to Atlanta.
It’s been said that good ball clubs beat the teams that they should…and the Rays did exactly that against the Tigers over the weekend. Friday and Sunday’s games were traditional Rays-like affairs, in that Tampa Bay relied on dominant pitching and timely offense to earn a couple of tallies in the win column. Saturday’s contest, and the other hand, was a bruiser with the Rays putting up 12 runs on 13 hits, seven walks, and a hit-by-pitch. All told Tampa Bay plated 21 runs total over the life of the Opening Series, including seven two-out runs, and went 12-for-27 with runners in scoring position. The pitching staff also allowed just three runs.
Tampa Bay fell 13 games short of first place in the division last season, which translates to roughly two extra losses per month (or, one additional loss per month if we are speaking in terms of second place). If they want to bridge that win/loss gap in 2023, they will need to make hay against teams like the Tigers and, frankly, the Nationals.
Meanwhile, Washington did as they are wont to do against the 26-headed beast that is the team from Atlanta: scoring just 2.33 runs per game (on average). They have an on-base percentage of .282 in addition to a team batting average of .206 so far this season. Is that indicative of anything given that we are just three games into the season? Not in the least. However, the Rays — much like Atlanta before them — have a fantastic staff of hurlers, not to mention a solid set of defenders, both of which specialize in run prevention. And while it’s not a given that the Rays will that the series, it sure as hell isn’t going to be easy for Washington.
On the pitching side of things, the Nationals have conceded 15 runs thus far, resulting in a team ERA of 5.50, with a FIP of 5.99, and a 1.72 WHIP. That’s, how do you say, erm…
The Rays went 1-3 against the Nationals the last time the two teams faced one another, in 2021, and were outscored 29-19.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Drew Rasmussen (11-7, 2.84 ERA, 3.26 FIP in 2022), Josh Fleming (2-5, 6.43 ERA, 4.43 FIP in 2022), and Shane McClanahan (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1,93 FIP). Dave Martinez will counter with Trevor Williams (3-5, 3.21 ERA, 3.67 FIP in 2022), Chad Kuhl (6-11, 5.72 ERA, 5.31 FIP in 2022), and Patrick Corbin (0-1, 6.00 ERA, 4.43 FIP).
Drew Rasmussen allowed one run (none earned) on one hit and one walk while striking out three across three innings on a March 17 Grapefruit League game against the Tigers. Rasmussen was hit hard in his first outing of the exhibition season, yet he rebounded his second time out. In addition to the solid line, he also ramped up to 47 pitches by that point, later stretching out across his next couple of appearances. Rasmussen is coming off a breakout campaign in which he posted a 2.84 ERA and 3.26 FIP, with a 1.04 WHIP, and a 4.03 K/BB across 146 innings. Rasmussen gave up two runs in two innings of his lone appearance against the Nationals.
Trevor Williams surrendered seven runs on 10 hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a March 19 Grapefruit League contest against the Marlins. He struck out four. The veteran right-hander came into that outing having allowed only three runs across three spring starts without having walked a batter, but little worked for Williams that time around. He posted a 3.21 ERA and a 3.67 FIP, for the Mets last season, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.65 K/BB. Williams relies primarily on a 91 mph fourseam fastball that has heavy sinking action and an 88 mph sinker with heavy gravitational sink, while also mixing in a whiffy 81 mph slider that has short glove-side cut, an 83 mph changeup that has slight arm side fade, and a 79 mph curveball. The right-hander is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA in one seven-inning outing against the Rays. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (1-3)
Josh Fleming appeared set to audition for a long-relief role heading into Spring Training, but a rotation spot opened up after Tyler Glasnow suffered an oblique injury. Fleming, who put together a fantastic spring campaign, has had occasional stretches of productive outings at the big-league level, although he floundered over his 35 big-league innings a season ago, logging a 6.43 ERA and a 4.43 FIP, with a 1.89 WHIP, and a 2.42 K/BB. He is a groundball machine, coaxing grounders at an extreme 63.8% rate. Fleming is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career 3.2-inning outing against the Nationals.
Chad Kuhl gave up a run on four hits and a walk over five innings during a March 20 Grapefruit League game against the Tigers. He struck out five. The right-hander put together his best spring performance yet, and because of it, earned the fifth starter spot with Stephen Strasburg on the Injured List. Kuhl’s overall spring numbers haven’t been great though, including a 1.8 K/BB through 12.1 innings. Last season, Kuhl put up a 5.72 ERA and a 5.31 FIP, with a 1.55 WHIP, and a 1.90 K/BB. He relies primarily on an 86 mph 12-6 slider and a 93 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and arm-side run, while also mixing in a whiffy 93 mph sinker, an 83 mph changeup that has slight arm side fade and some natural sink to it, and a 79 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite. Kuhl has never faced the Rays.
Shane McClanahan made his second Opening Day start in as many years, yet he appeared to almost be in mid-season form, turning in a six-inning scoreless outing on 87 pitches (58 strikes, 67% strike rate, 18% SwStr). The left-hander worked around a Javier Báez one-out single in the first, an Austin Meadows one-out double in the second, a walk and an infield single in the third, and a single in the fourth, striking out six along the way. McClanahan leaned primarily on his 96.7 mph heater (up 0.6 mph over his 2022 average), throwing it 56% of the time (49 total), while coaxing eight whiffs. Yet, it was his changeup that coaxed the most swings and misses as a total percentage of pitches thrown — five whiffs on 17 changeups. That’s neither shocking nor surprising. McClanahan gave up three runs on five hits (including two homers) in his lone start against Washington, a three-inning outing.
Patrick Corbin allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits over three-plus innings during the season opener against Atlanta on Thursday. He had three strikeouts and three walks. Corbin struggled against Atlanta’s deep and dangerous offensive attack and often pitched from behind — throwing a first-pitch strike to just seven of the 20 batters he faced. It’s an ominous start to 2023 after going 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA last season. He relies primarily on a 79 mph slider that has some two-plane movement and a 91 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in an 80 mph changeup. Corbin is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in one career outing against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-4, 2 RBI), Christian Bethancourt (1-3, 2B, BB), Yandy Díaz (1-4, BB), Manuel Margot (7-26, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, BB), Harold Ramírez (4-12, 2B, RBI)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
Aside from the fact that Brain Tourniquet is from DC, they play a raging version of hardcore punk. Take one dash of harDCore, and mix it with a heaping spoonful of west coast powerviolence, and you have Brain Tourniquet.