After splitting a series against the Bronx Bummers, the Tampa Bay Rays head to Queens where they will start a three-game set against the Mets on Tuesday. The Mets split their most recent series against the Nationals.
At 31-11 on the season, the Rays enter play 20 games above .500. New York enters play at 20-22, two games below .500.
Overall, the Rays are scoring 6.2 runs per contest, which is second in baseball. That trend continued in the Bronx over the weekend when Tampa Bay’s offense put up 29 runs on Yankee hurlers for an average of 7.25 runs per game. All told, they’ve crossed the plate 260 times while maintaining a team on-base percentage of .349 (.353 OBP over the last seven days). While their slugging percentage over the last week (.440 SLG) is below their season SLG (.508), that’s nothing to scoff at…and it’s 73 points higher than that of the underperforming Mets over the same stretch. Whatever the case, Tampa Bay has put up a 126 wRC+ over the last seven days thanks to a .272 BA/.353 OBP/.440 SLG/.793 OPS line, with a 6.6 wRAA. Compare that to New York, whose wRC+ is 29% off the Rays’ pace over the same stretch.
Tampa Bay is sitting with a team ERA of 3.26 and a team FIP of 3.79 thus far (3.03 ERA and 3.33 FIP for the starters, and 3.51 ERA and 4.28 FIP for the relievers) which is the best in baseball. The pitching staff has struck out 355 hitters and yielded just 33 long balls in addition to 140 runs surrendered (first in baseball).
Meanwhile, New York holds a team WHIP of 1.346 and has a FIP of 4.88 thus far. They currently have an 8.70 K/BB (341 strikeouts against 155 free passes). They come in at ninth in baseball in total hits allowed with 320. The Mets have served up 54 home runs and they allow an average of 4.59 runs per game.
The Rays went 3-0 against the Mets the last time the two teams faced one another in 2021 and outscored them 22-8.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn Yonny Chirinos (1-1, 2.22 ERA, 3.91 FIP), likely Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.52 ERA, 2.58 FIP), and Josh Fleming (0-0, 4.26 ERA, 4.78 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.25 ERA, 4.22 FIP), Kodai Senga (4-2, 4.14 ERA, 4.95 FIP), and Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA, 5.23 FIP).
Yonny Chirinos allowed two runs on five hits and four walks while striking out a batter over five innings. Chirinos took over in the third inning and kept the Orioles off the board until the sixth. He allowed back-to-back hits and a walk to load the bases before Adam Frazier’s groundout to second and Austin Hays’ single drove in a pair of runs. Chirinos would come back out for a 1-2-3 seventh inning on just seven pitches. The right-hander now owns a 2.22 ERA and a 3.91 FIP, with a 0.99 WHIP, but a 0.90 K/BB over 24.1 innings.
Justin Verlander allowed one run on two hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in his last start. The only damage against Verlander came in the opening inning when Jonathan India led off with a single and eventually came around to score on a double by Jake Fraley. Verlander quieted the Reds from there, allowing just two other batters to reach via walks. He generated 13 whiffs on 104 pitches (13% SwStr) and was still touching 96 MPH with his fastball in the seventh inning. It was a dominant effort from Verlander, who owns a 2.25 ERA but a 4.22 FIP, with a 0.83 WHIP, and a 4.00 K/BB across two starts. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph fourseam fastball and a hard 87 mph slider, while also mixing in a 79 mph 12-6 curveball. Verlander is 10-4 with a 3.14 ERA in 20 career outings against the Rays. Key Matchups: Christian Bethancourt (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Yandy Díaz (2-7, 2B, BB), Brandon Lowe (2-8, 2B)
Taj Bradley surrendered four earned runs across 3.1 innings Thursday for Triple-A Durham and has a 16.00 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in nine innings across three starts since getting sent back to the minors on April 25. It’s been a really rough stretch for the Rays’ top prospect since he was surprisingly demoted after racking up three wins with a 3.52 ERA and a 2.58 FIP, with a 0.91 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts in 15.1 innings across his first three big league starts. Bear in mind the purpose of his original demotion was to transition him to a five-day schedule as opposed to a six-day schedule, but his start Thursday against Charlotte was the first time he has actually pitched on a five-day schedule all season, while his presumed start on Wednesday will be six days after his last start. In other words, go figure.
Kodai Senga allowed five runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out seven batters over five innings. Senga gave the Mets five frames, which can be viewed as a small moral victory after he was tagged for five hits and four runs in the first inning. He settled in from there and yielded just one more run. Both the five runs and eight hits were season-worst marks for Senga, who was coming off six scoreless innings against Colorado in his previous start. His season ERA now sits at 4.14 while his FIP sits at 4.95, and he’s posted a 1.87 K/BB over 37 innings. He relies primarily on a 96 mph worm-killer fourseam fastball and a 90 mph cutter, while also mixing in a whiffy 84 mph splitter that has some natural sink to it, and an 82 mph slider that sweeps across the zone and has exceptional depth.
Josh Fleming allowed one run on three hits and a walk over four relief innings on Friday against the Yankees. He struck out two. Entering the game in the third inning following the opener, Fleming was handed a 2-1 lead but eventually gave up the tying run before exiting after 52 pitches (29 strikes, 56% strike rate). The southpaw has been erratic this season — 11 of his 15 earned runs allowed have come in just two of his eight appearances — while he owns a 4.26 ERA and a 4.78 FIP, with a 1.42 WHIP, and a 1.21 K/BB through 31.2 innings. Fleming is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two outings (one start) against the Mets.
Tylor Megill gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks over five innings against the Nationals on Friday. He struck out four. The right-hander was far from efficient, throwing only 53 of 93 pitches for strikes (57% strike rate), and when Megill left the mound for good after the bottom of the fifth, the Mets were staring at a two-run deficit. He continues to fight the strike zone and has issued at least three walks in five of his last six turns while posting a 4.91 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and 1.16 K/BB through 29.1 innings over that stretch. He relies primarily on a 95 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action and an 84 mph slider that has exceptional depth, while also mixing in a hard 89 mph changeup that has arm-side fade and has some natural sink, and a whiffy 77 mph curveball that has exceptional bite.
Noteworthiness
— The Rays reinstated right-hander Pete Fairbanks from the 15-day Injured List on Monday and optioned right-hander Chris Muller to Triple-A Durham.
The Music That Influenced This Preview
If you’re into distorted, raging, hardcore punk with a rock and roll attitude, check out Negative Blast’s newest ripper, “Echo Planet.”