After a winning, albeit brief, homestand, punctuated by a 5-4 walk-off win in the series finale against the Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays will open a four-game series in Cleveland on Thursday night. Cleveland salvaged a win in their three-game set against Houston.
The Rays enter play 18-games over .500 and 1.0 game back of the Red Sox in the division. Tampa Bay is 7-3 over the last 10 games, while Cleveland is 6-4.
The Rays rank seventh in runs per game, despite ranking 25th in batting average. They have one of the more balanced offenses, which could give Cleveland fits from the top to the bottom of the order. Randy Arozarena enters the series red hot, having gone 7-for-13 in the series vs. Baltimore, including five extra-base hits — two doubles and three home runs. All the contact he made was loud, with each of the hits registering at +100 mph off the bat. Brandon Lowe boasts 21 homers on the season, while Austin Meadows — the hero of Wednesday’s contest — has 65 RBI.
Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense has struggled overall, although it still ranks 13th in home runs per game. The home run numbers have helped prop up the run totals in general, as Cleveland ranks 17th in runs per game — something that’s evidenced by their .192 ISO and .456 SLG over the last 14 games. While José Ramírez has taken a step back from the MVP-contending numbers of the last few seasons, he still leads the team with 19 long balls, 52 RBI, and a .341 OBP. Amed Rosario leads in batting average and is hitting .409 over the last week, while Franmil Reyes and Bradley Zimmer each have scored twice over the same stretch, showing the potential this offense still has.
Tampa Bay won all three games against Cleveland earlier this month at home, posting a +12 run differential and outscoring them 21-9, however, the Rays traditionally struggle in northeast Ohio.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Luis Patiño (1-2, 4.87 ERA), Josh Fleming (7-5, 3.93 ERA), a bullpen day on Saturday, and Ryan Yarbrough (6-4, 4.59 ERA) over the life of the series. Terry Francona will counter with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.05 ERA), Zach Plesac (5-3, 4.19 ERA), J.C. Mejía (1-5, 7.53 ERA), and Triston McKenzie (1-4, 5.91 ERA).
Luis Patiño was added to the taxi squad then subsequently recalled and added to the starting rotation on Wednesday. Kevin Cash said the right-hander could stay in the rotation after Thursday’s start if he fares well. Patiño has been in Durham — where he maintains a 3.07 ERA and a 2.78 FIP, with a 1.16 WHIP and a 3.73 K/BB across 29.1 innings — since July 2. With the big league squad, the right-hander maintains a 4.87 ERA and a 3.77 FIP, with a 1.18 WHIP, and a 4.80 K/BB in 20.1 innings and six appearances (four starts). He last pitched on July 16, allowing four runs on six hits (including a home run) and a walk over six innings. He struck out seven and threw 64 of 90 pitches for strikes (71% strike rate).
Cal Quantrill allowed a run on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in five innings on Saturday against Oakland. While it wasn’t exactly a gem, Quantrill kept Cleveland in a position to win. The right-hander has won consecutive starts, although he’s allowed 17 runs in 24 innings across his last five turns. For the year, Quantrill has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.35 FIP, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 2.18 K/BB across 66.2 innings. He relies primarily on a 95 mph sinker that has little sinking action and an 88 mph hard slider with 12-6 movement, while also mixing in a firm 86 mph changeup, and a 95 mph four-seam fastball with slightly above-average velocity.
Josh Fleming was hit hard by Atlanta, allowing seven earned runs on eight hits and a walk over 4.1 innings. He also struck out two and hit a batter. Fleming had his worst outing as a big-leaguer, surrendering a pair of home runs in same-handed at-bats with Joc Pederson and Freddie Freeman to account for part of the damage. Atlanta was able to square up consistently against the lefty, as former Rays Kevan Smith and Guillermo Heredia, as well as opposing starter Max Fried and Ozzie Albies all laced doubles off him as well. Prior to that though, he threw 2.2 scoreless innings against Cleveland on July 7th, a seven-inning game where Tampa Bay didn’t allow a hit. Fleming currently maintains a 3.93 ERA and a 4.41 FIP on the season, with a 1.09 WHIP, and a 2.39 K/BB across 73.1 innings of work.
Zach Plesac allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out three across six innings on Sunday against the Athletics. Plesac surrendered a game-tying home run to Seth Brown in the fifth inning, however, Cleveland added a run in the seventh to set up Plesac with the win. The 26-year-old missed six weeks with a thumb injury and has had an inconsistent season. He maintains a 4.19 ERA and a 4.78 FIP on the season, with a 1.02 WHIP, and a 3.46 K/BB across 68.2 innings of work. He is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one career start against the Rays. Plesac relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball, an 88 mph hard slider with 12-6 movement, and a frim 86 mph changeup, while also mixing in a hard 81 mph curveball with 12-6 movement. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (2-2, HR, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-2, 2B)
Bullpen Day
J.C Mejía allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings Monday against the Astros. He struck out eight. Mejía allowed RBI base hits in the first and fourth innings before coughing up a two-run homer to Yordan Alvarez in the fifth, knocking him out of the ballgame. He’s surrendered at least four runs in four of his last five outings, driving his ERA up to 7.53 across 34.2 innings. He’s also lost five consecutive decisions dating back to June 9. The right-hander maintains a 4.70 FIP, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 2.69 K/BB on the season. The Rays tagged Mejía for six runs on four hits (including a home run) and two walks across 2.2 innings on July 7. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-2, 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Joey Wendle (1-2, 2B)
Ryan Yarbrough got the start Monday and coughed up six runs on eight hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out five. Baltimore didn’t hit the southpaw particularly hard, as a first-inning double by Ryan Mountcastle was the only extra-base hit Yarbrough surrendered. However, given how little run support he received, Yarbs had little to no margin for error. The ebbs and flows of Yarbrough … the lefty has lasted six innings only once in his last five outings. On the season, Yarbrough maintains a 4.59 ERA and a 4.20 FIP, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 4.42 K/BB across 102.0 innings pitched. He is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA across two career outings (one start) against Cleveland.
Triston McKenzie allowed five runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out three over four innings against the Astros on Tuesday. While McKenzie was brilliant in a spot start against Kansas City, he couldn’t replicate the same success against a much more potent Astros’ lineup. José Altuve took him deep twice in the first three frames and the eight hits allowed were a season-high. McKenzie walked just one batter for a second straight game, a category he’s struggled with for most of the season. Even so, the right-hander is having a rough sophomore season, owning a 5.91 ERA and a 5.30 FIP, with a 1.46 WHIP, and a 1.73 K/BB over 53.1 innings. McKenzie relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball that has some added backspin, while also mixing in a whiffy 79 mph curveball with 12-6 movement and a whiffy 87 mph slider.
Noteworthiness
— The Rays optioned Vidal Bruján back to Triple-A Durham to make room for Luis Patiño on the 26-man roster.