After sweeping the Marlins over the weekend, the Tampa Bay Rays make their way to Houston where they will start their penultimate regular-season series on Tuesday. The Astros were swept by the Athletics, and are in the throes of a four-game losing streak.
At 97-59 on the season, the Rays enter play a season-high 38-games above .500 and need to win just one game against the Astros in order to earn home-field advantage for the entire American League playoffs.
Tampa Bay performed about as expected against Miami. Not only did they average six runs per game, while driving in eight two-out runs, but the pitching staff limited the Marlins to just five runs over 27 frames. Meanwhile, the Astros vastly underperformed both their season numbers, and their offensive output over the last 14 days, having been outscored 20-6 by the Athletics, including a 14-2 shellacking in the first game of the series.
Both these teams are in first place in their respective division, while the Rays won the AL East on Saturday. They are both good teams, yet they are different. Tampa Bay has tied the franchise record in wins in what could be the toughest division in baseball, while the Astros have won at a tepid pace in a tired and possibly soft division. Even though both teams have gotten plenty of wins, the Rays have played tougher baseball.
Still, the Astros have a very good offense, and a good pitching staff, and are a formidable opponent that’s capable of lighting up any opposing hurler with questionable stuff.
While many think the Rays will take their foot off the gas pedal going into the final six games of the season, Kevin Cash is trying to gain some answers about a potential playoff roster. That is to say, don’t expect them to lay down anytime soon, much less in Houston.
Tampa Bay is 1-2 against Houston this season, having been outscored 16-8.
PITCHING PROBABLES
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.49 ERA), Drew Rasmussen (3-0, 2.67 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (9-6, 5.09 ERA). Dusty Baker will counter with José Urquidy (8-3, 3.56 ERA), Luis Garcia (11-7, 3.23 ERA), and Lance McCullers Jr. (12-5, 3.17 ERA).
Michael Wacha allowed one run on three hits with four strikeouts and zero walks across three relief innings on Tuesday against Toronto. Wacha was penciled in as Wednesday’s probable starter, yet he instead covered the final three frames of Tuesday’s contest for Tampa Bay. The right-hander has allowed seven earned runs across his last nine innings of work. All told, Wacha maintains a 5.49 ERA and a 4.61 FIP, with a 1.39 WHIP, and a 4.04 K/BB across 114.2 innings on the season. He is 0-0 with a 6.14 ERA in two career starts against Houston.
José Urquidy allowed four earned runs on six hits while striking out three across 5.1 innings on Tuesday against the Angels. Urquidy surrendered home runs to Jack Mayfield and Phil Gosselin that accounted for all four runs allowed. The 26-year-old has a 3.56 ERA and a 3.93 FIP, with a 0.99 WHIP, and a 4.76 K/BB with 81 punchouts across 96 innings this season. Urquidy is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start (seven innings) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Nelson Cruz (1-2, HR), Brandon Lowe (1-3), Manuel Margot (2-3)
Drew Rasmussen pitched five innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out three. As per usual, the 26-year-old commanded the strike zone in this one with 52 of his 70 pitches going for strikes (74% strike rate). The only major blow against him was a solo home run by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the fifth inning. Since joining the starting rotation on August 12, Rasmussen has posted a fantastic 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 32 innings. Overall, he maintains a 3.04 ERA and a 3.13 FIP, with a 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.84 K/BB across 71.0 innings on the season.
Luis Garcia pitched six innings of shutout ball on Wednesday against the Angels. He allowed three hits and three walks while striking out one. Garcia wasn’t flawless in the outing — he threw only 42 of 79 pitches for strikes (53% strike rate) and induced just six swings and misses — yet the right-hander kept Los Angeles off the scoreboard for six frames. He was able to notch his first quality start in nearly a month. On the season, Garcia maintains a 3.23 ERA and a 3.51 FIP, with a 1.15 WHIP, and a 3.35 K/BB across 150.1 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 99 mph sinker and an 86 mph slider with two-plane movement, while also mixing in an 89 mph hard splitter that has some natural sink to it.
Ryan Yarbrough pitched out of the bulk role on Friday, scattering just two hits across six scoreless frames on 80 pitches (54 strikes, 68% strike rate, 6 whiffs, 8% SwStr%) — striking out four while walking none for the second time in as many games.
Yarbrough was terrific, allowing just one batter into position in his scoreless outing. He had a rather interesting, yet effective, pitch mix, throwing his curveball 29 times while coaxing 33% swings and whiffs. He rounded things out by leaning on the rest of his repertoire — his sinker, changeup which boasted a lot of sweeping movement, and cutter — essentially equally. In two of his previous three outings, Yarbrough was hammered for 14 runs over 4.1 innings, yet he’s allowed just four runs over 12 innings since. He now owns a 5.09 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, with a 1.23 WHIP, and a 4.28 K/BB across 150.1 innings. Yarbrough is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA in three career outings (two starts) against Houston.
Lance McCullers Jr. allowed three runs on two hits and four walks across six innings on Thursday against the Angels. He struck out five. McCullers posted his fourth consecutive quality start, yet he lacked run support and was the victim of a poor offensive showing from his teammates which resulted in a loss. His command also was a bit shaky in this one, which has been a trend of late. Over his last six starts, McCullers owns a 3.03 ERA but has also posted a 2.05 K/BB across 35.2 innings. All told, he maintains a 3.17 ERA and a 3.48 FIP, with a 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.41 K/BB across 156.1 innings on the season. McCullers is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA in four career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Brandon Lowe (2-3, 2B), Manuel Margot (2-5, BB)
NOTEWORTHINESS
— On Monday, the Rays optioned OF/1B Jordan Luplow to Triple-A Durham and placed RHP Nick Anderson on the 10-day Injured List with a back strain. They recalled RHP Louis Head and LHP Ryan Sherriff from Durham.
— Something to consider while I formally write a piece on Rays’ home attendance.