With Grapefruit League action now underway, the long, not-so-cold, and pretty quiet offseason has transitioned into Spring Training — a time of optimism and high expectations. For the Tampa Bay Rays, the ultimate goal will be to get back to the postseason for the fifth consecutive season in a row, and ultimately win it all.
What follows is our annual guide to Spring Training, which includes a healthy dose of look-fors.
Sample sizes are so small that any meaningful conclusion about a player’s performance cannot truly be determined
Everyday starters, and players getting serious roster consideration, typically get around 60 at-bats during the spring. Yet, given this year’s somewhat disjointed schedule for the players participating in the World Baseball Classic, a 60-at-bat sample size won’t be enough to give an accurate depiction of what to expect out of a batter. Why? Among other things, the first statistic to stabilize for hitters is strikeout percentage, and it takes at least 60 plate appearances to do so. Hitters ultimately aren’t worried about looking for the perfect pitch to clobber, rather they are trying to get their timing down. Anything above and beyond that is the icing on the cake.
Conditions for hitting in south Florida are vastly different than in the Trop
The Rays play in a dome where there is less air resistance on the ball in flight and because of it, wind resistance is not as much of a factor. And while wind resistance won’t play a role in their Grapefruit League home games, since the Rays will play all but one home game at the Trop, the Southwest Florida weather conditions can change quickly in the month of March. A stiff breeze blowing in can turn a home run into a routine fly ball.
Last Spring Training, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and a player on the Pirates came about a biscuit away from driving the ball out of the park if not for the stiff breeze blowing across the field, from left field to right field.
Ultimately, the outcome of Spring Training at-bats is completely meaningless once the calendar hits March 30.
Pitchers aren’t worried about setting up a batter for a punch out, rather they are concerned with staying healthy and building up arm strength
Pitchers are focused on getting ready for the season, not getting batters out. It takes time for pitchers to build up their arm strength. Dips in velocity are going to happen, homers are going to happen, and a pitcher might look like, well…crap prior to Opening Day.
Bear in mind that a handful of poor spring outings likely are not indicative of a pitcher’s regular-season performance.
Pitchers use Spring Training to work on pitches
The time for trial and error is now. Pitchers know that they should not spend their time experimenting with a different variation of a changeup or a slider, for example, during the regular season. That tinkering is generally reserved for side and bullpen sessions, and exhibition games that do not count.
Spring Training offers pitchers a stress-free environment to try out some changes that could be beneficial to their future performance.
Pitchers will often throw a particular pitch on the outside corner to work on their command over the outer half of the plate. Sometimes a pitcher will only work inside and give up a couple of bombs because he missed his spot. At the end of the day, it’s only Spring Training.
Players are going to make errors, and that’s fine
Cloudless skies turn poppers into doubles, and errors from players playing out of position likely would not happen during the regular season. Last season, Randy Arozarena misjudged a popper that eventually bounded away from the outfielder for a Little League triple.
Spring Training is a time for players — many of whom are untested at the Major League level — to prove their worth. Instead, watch how a player jumps on the ball. Is he quick? Does he have good range? Do his movements seem fluid or stilted? What about his arm?
The win-loss record at the end of Spring Training is meaningless
Last season, the Los Angeles Angels went 11-6 in the Cactus League, while Rays went 6-11. The Angels did Dicky McGeezacks in the 2022 regular season, while the Rays made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. At the end of the day, the Spring Training record is indicative of nothing.
Make note of who plays where and for how long
The Rays typically experiment with player positioning in exhibition games to see how it works. Who will get more reps on the infield — Taylor Walls or Vidal Bruján? To that end, how much of a competition for playing time at first will there be between the right-handed hitters Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez, as well as the now-healthy Brandon Lowe?
It should also be noted that Kevin Cash is going to give the newly acquired Ben Gamel some reps both in the outfield and the infield.
We’re going to get his legs underneath him. He’s an outfielder by trade. I think we’re going to challenge him a little bit, put a first baseman’s mitt in his hands, get him some work there. And then we’ll get him in the lineup. His bat is probably his driver. It’s a nice option to talk about. Let’s see how it plays out when we get him in the games. He’ll get plenty of reps hopefully in both spots, outfield and first.
— Kevin Cash
After a disappointing 2022, Josh Lowe will also be working hard to make some noise in order to crack the Opening Day roster.
He’s going to get a lot of at-bats. He will be a priority for us throughout this camp to see how he’s continuing to adjust to Major League pitching in these games.
— Kevin Cash
Players will be adjusting to the rule changes
Bigger bases, pitch clocks, no more than three throw-overs, and no more overloading one side of the infield in lieu of the other. Suffice it to say, this could be a strange season. The players will be put to the test in Spring Training.
As Anthony Castrovince (MLB.com) wote, the first full slate of games with the pitch timer, defensive shift restrictions, and bigger bases arrived Saturday in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, and, as promised, games were quick and enforcement was strict.
All involved were warned that there would be no grace period with regard to the rules. So it was that a game between the Red Sox and Braves in North Port, Fla., ended in the bottom of the ninth (with the score tied, as there was no intention between the two teams of using extra men to play extra innings) when Braves infielder Cal Conley, who was up to bat with the bases loaded, two outs and the count full, was not alert to the pitcher by the 8-second mark of the pitch timer and was therefore assessed an automatic strike.
Struck out lagging.
Game over.
In all fairness, the younger players on the roster are already familiar with the pitch clock, given they played with it in Triple-A. However, the other players, and the coaches, will have to work hard to make the adjustment.
Pay attention to injuries
In the last few days Ryan Thompson (triceps), Shawn Armstrong (neck), Calvin Faucher (oblique), and Taylor Walls (oblique) were nipped by the injury bug in various degrees of severity. As of now, Armstrong and Walls are questionable for the start of the season.