Aight kiddies, today marks the start of the second half of the season. The Rays performed well in the first half, all things considered. However, a few things have got to change if they Rays are going to be contenders in a few short months from now, namely defense and hitting. Joe Maddon touched on that subject at the Rays voluntary team work out Thursday, at the Trop:
We posted about Luke Scott’s hitting woes prior to the All-Star break. In kind, we’ll be looking at two other players who are crucial pieces to the Rays offensive puzzle; Carlos Pena and BJ Upton.
The Rays re-signed Carlos Pena based on his merits prior to his 2011 stint with the Cubs, combined with his numbers last season in Chicago. Ideally, ‘Los and Upton, along with Evan Longoria, Scott, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, and Ben Zobrist, were expected to be the Rays offensive oomph. As Murphy’s Law would have it, two things have hampered the Rays expectations at the plate thus far. The injury bug, and inconsistent performance at the plate have left a team that’s struggled to stay above water. And again, all things considered, Tampa Bay has fared well, ending the first half of the season just a half game out of the wildcard race.
Zobrist has really cranked it up since the beginning of June, Jennings seems like he’s starting to piece together better at bats, LUKE looks as though like he’s finally coming out of his horrendous dry spell, and Elliot Johnson has surprised many by hitting .295 in June and .296 in July, while driving in 22 RBI and crossing the plate 26 times. On the other hand, despite a few peaks both Pena and Upton have left us with a lot to be desired. Both are under-performing.
To be fair, we can’t quite compare last seasons overall numbers to this half seasons production values. Bear with me. If you double the number of runs batted in, runs, and extra base hits in 2012, you can get an idea of the kinds of numbers they may put up by game 162. Let’s just say this, if they continue to produce the way the have, you could see a discount outfielder and first basemen on the market at the end of the season.
Compared to last season, Upton has a higher batting average. Mind you though, that his batting average isn’t really indicative of much beyond he getting a greater number of hits. Though Upton is getting more hits, his on base percentage is down. Why? He’s taking less walks. Upton’s slugging percentage is down also, while his strikeout percentage is up. If the first half of the season is indicative of anything (and let’s hope it’s not), Upton could end the season with fewer than 70 runs, 70 RBI, and 50 extra base hits. In short, Upton’s hitting the ball more, and that’s good. But with Upton hitting the ball on the ground more often (a 43%/37% GB/FB ratio), combined with he not getting on base as often, Upton’s performance is lacking.
A quick look at where BJ is making contact…rather where he may not be making contact, shows that he’s connecting with almost 80% of pitches in the zone, and about 58% of the pitches out of the zone. Both values are down from 84% and almost 61% respectively. Upton is swinging at a greater percentage (73.5% Z, and 30.8% O) of pitches, both in and out of the zone. Not surprisingly, that’s up from 70.7% Z and 27.2% O in 2011.
Pena has a lower batting average in 2012, yet his on base percentage is up. Why? He’s taking walks, yet not as many as last season. Otherwise Pena’s numbers are down across the board…with the exception of runs and strikeout percentage. Pena is on track to cross the plate a greater number of times this season. On the other hand, we could see him driving in a fewer number of runs while getting fewer extra base hits. ‘Los has a slightly higher ground-ball percentage than last year (37.5% vs. 37.3%), yet his fly-ball percentage is down by almost 4% (43.8% vs 47.3%). A lower fly-ball percentage = less home runs. And for Pena, that equals less production.
Where is or isn’t he making contact? Pena is connecting on pitches outside of the zone a little more than 53% of the time, up from 51% last season. However, he’s making contact on pitches inside of the zone 74% of the time, down from 80% last season. What’s more, he’s swinging at pitches outside of the zone more, and inside of the zone less. In short, Pena has a higher swinging strike percentage, and the amount of time he makes contact is drastically down from 70% to 66%.
A lot can be said about Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria adding protection to run producers on the team. And I’ll concede that they do. However, seeing that both Upton and and Pena are getting good pitches to swing at, yet aren’t, is a bit disconcerting. Carlos Pena and BJ Upton, in addition to the healthy boppers on the roster, are going to need to step up and get that timely hit. This is especially so with Longo on the DL for god knows how long, and Joyce out for the next two weeks. Both players have proven that they can get those important timely doubles, and they’re going to need to do so.