Rays vs Blue Jays series preview Archives - Page 3 of 8

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays, part deux — a series preview

April 28, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

At least Tim Beckham had reason to smile in the series finale with the Orioles. He went 3-4 with two homers and a double. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following back-to-back series losses, including extra innings series finale losses in both, the Tampa Bay Rays head to Toronto for a three-game set against a team they’ve already has success agains this season — the Blue Jays. For the Rays, a battle against the last place team in the AL East provides them with an opportunity to get back on the winning side of .500.

Tampa Bay won the second game of the series against the Orioles, 2-0, but dropped the first and last by a combined four runs. Over on the Blue Jays’ side, they just finished up against the Cardinals. Toronto squeaked out a 6-5 win against St. Louis on Tuesday, but dropped both games of a day/night doubleheader; 8-4 in 11 innings in the early game, and 6-4 in the nightcap.

(Stats: ESPN)

The Rays will be looking to Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson to continue their toasty ways. Souza leads the team with 29 hits, 14 runs and 17 RBI, while Dickerson follows with 25 hits — including five homers — 11 runs and nine RBI. Evan Longoria, on the other hand, has stumbled of late, posting a .227 average with 20 hits, 10 runs and 12 RBI.

Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar has collected 24 hits, eight runs and six RBI, while Kendrys Morales has 18 hits, seven runs and 11 RBI to his name. Pillar lashed two hits and a run in game one in the first game of the double header, and a hit, a run and an RBI at night. Morales — relegated to pinch hitting duties in the first game — bagged a hit, and then a homer and three RBI in the second game. Still, the injury ridden Jays have the second worst run differential in the American League.

If anything, this should be an interesting series, as the Rays are 2-8 on the road, while the Blue Jays are 2-7 at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will start Blake Snell (0-2, 3.38 ERA, 5.50 FIP), Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.86 ERA, 5.35 FIP), and Chris Archer (2-1, 3.94 ERA, 3.50 FIP). John Gibbons will counter with Marcus Stroman (2-2, 3.10 ERA, 2.80 FIP), Francisco Liriano (1-2, 4.58 ERA, 3.60 FIP), and Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching matchups

Snell walked a career-high-tying five batters on Saturday against Houston. His three starts with five walks have come over his last 11 starts, and he has pitched five innings or less over his last three straight starts (seven of his last eight). Snell’s FIP has progressively ballooned over his last couple of starts, while his 15 strikeouts through 21-1/3 is worrisome. Repeat after me, his command (or lack thereof) continues to be a problem.

Stroman allowed two runs — one earned — in his second complete game of the season. His first start of the season was versus Tampa Bay and he picked up a win after 6-1/3 quality innings. Following a shaky start, Stroman settled in and kept the Angels off base for the next five innings while retiring 17 consecutive hitters. In spite a rather unlucky .400 BABIP over the last 14 days, Stroman owns an excellent 3.10 ERA and 3.03 FIP overall. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-24, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (4-15, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (4-12, 2B, 2 BB)

Andriese was in line for his second win of the season in the series finale with the Astros before Alex Colome blew his first save of the season, and allowed an unearned run in the ninth. The right-hander has allowed 10 runs this season, six of which coming on the long ball.

Liriano was touched up for five runs on three hits in just 1/3 of an inning in his season debut against Tampa Bay. Since, however, he has turned things around. Liriano has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts, notching 18 strikeouts to seven walks over those 17-1/3 innings. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-31, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (7-20, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Daniel Robertson (1-1)

Archer gave up three home runs — the first he’s given up this season — in a loss against Baltimore Monday night. He pitched well in his season debut against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs on five hits. Archer has struggled with his command of late, leading to a triplet of five inning starts. In any case, he’ll try to move past his blip on Sunday in Toronto.

Sanchez has been out since April 14th with a blister on his right middle finger, although the injury has healed. Sanchez threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Tuesday with tape around his injured finger. He will throw a side session on Friday without any protective covering, and if all goes as planned, he should face the Rays on Sunday. In two starts this season, Sanchez has allowed six runs on 11 hits (including three homers) with a 9:4 strike to ball ratio. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-10, 2B), Colby Rasmus (1-3), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith was activated off the DL by the Rays and optioned to AAA Durham.

Doing so allows the team to keep OF Shane Peterson for a couple extra days as protection if Rasmus has a setback. As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) writes, Peterson is out of options so has to be passed through waivers, and potentially lost, before he can be sent to the minors.

— Colby Rasmus expected to come off the DL this weekend.

— It bears mentioning…

Rays bullpen:
– lacks LHP
– has 4 veterans on DL
– has thrown 80.2 IP, 2nd most in AL
– has a 3.47 ERA (MLB average is 4.06)

— Dave Haller (@HallerDave) April 28, 2017

The New What Next: Rays vs. Jays — a series preview

April 6, 2017 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays took two of three from the Yankees during the Opening Series. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the Trop, on Thursday, for a four-game set on the heels of a successful series win against the New York Yankees.

Over the Opening Series, Rays’ starters out-hurled their opponents, throwing 18-2/3 innings to New York’s 11-1/3. The ‘pen, somewhat surprisingly, was even sharper, allowing just one run in 8-1/3 innings over the three games, while fanning six and walking one.

For Tampa Bay, it was the first time since 2012 the team won an Opening Series — the same season the Rays beat the Yankees three straight.

Awesome series win, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. I think we played really good baseball three games.

The Blue Jays enter St. Pete with a series loss (against Baltimore) to their credit, although their pitching was solid. The Orioles managed to eke out a win on Wednesday without a single at-bat with runners in scoring position, doing so on the back of two home runs.

(Stats: ESPN)

Two of the top defensive center fielders in baseball, Kevin Kiermaier and Kevin Pillar, will showcase their wares over the next four days. Pillar has struggled against Tampa Bay, with a career .229 batting average, and a meager .619 OPS. Kiermaier, on the contrary, has owned the Jays, hitting .335, with 31 runs and 22 RBI in 48 games.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Toronto went 8-11 against Tampa Bay in 2016 — 3-6 at Rogers Centre and 4-4 at Tropicana Field. And while the Trop used to be a graveyard for the Jays (10-35 from 2008 to 2012), but they have gone 18-21 there the past four seasons.

For the Rays, manager Kevin Cash will lean on starters Blake Snell, Matt Andriese, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi over the next four days. The Blue Jays will counter with Marcus Stroman, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Series Starters

Blake Snell fanned 98 over 89 innings last season, so his stuff — a big curveball and a mid-‘90s fastball — is there. However, control problems are generally a big concern for Snell, who didn’t have an overly strong spring.

Marcus Stroman picked up MVP of the World Baseball Classic after a dominant start against Puerto Rico in the championship game. However, Stroman was beaten up over the first half of the 2016 season, and ended the year with a 4.34 ERA/3.71 FIP. Due to his 7.45 K/9 (9% SwK%), there’s not a lot of reason to believe Stroman will be an elite strikeout pitcher. In spite of all that, Stroman led the Blue Jays in innings pitched, and pitched well in the Playoffs. As Mike Sonne (FanGraphs) pointed out, the optimism for Stroman in 2017 comes from his ERA in 2016 being nearly a full run above what his Deserve Run Average, and (DRA = 4.34), and xFIP (4.12) claimed they should be. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (4-14,2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (8-22, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB)

Matt Andriese begins the season as the number five starter, after shuffling between the starting rotation and the bullpen last season. Andriese, who also didn’t have the strongest of springs, went 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2016, and is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against Toronto.

Francisco Liriano is coming off a dominant spring that saw a lot of whiffs and fewer walks than previous years. Yet the southpaw must continue to work on command if he is to be successful as he enters the final season of his contract. Liriano had an ERA of 2.92/3.98 FIP in 8 starts (10 total games) with Toronto last season. He has been the model of inconsistency, and that inconsistency could bode well for the Rays on Friday. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-31, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (6-19, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI)

Chris Archer posted a strong Opening Day performance on Sunday, holding the Yankees to two runs in seven innings to earn his first win of the season. Archer struck out five and walked one. Last season he went 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts against Toronto.

Aaron Sanchez opens as the fifth starter following a slightly delayed start to the spring due to a finger injury. Sanchez was the AL ERA leader last season, and possesses electric stuff — although his strikeout-to-walk ratio and tendency, and a problem with homers to left-handed hitters are his main weaknesses — and could repeat or even improve upon last season’s performance. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-7, 2B), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

Jake Odorizzi, after retiring six of the first seven hitters he faced, ran into trouble in the third inning. The right-handed hurler gave up a two-run blast to Ronald Torreyes in the third inning before allowing another homer to Chase Headley one out into the sixth. All told, Odorizzi gave up four runs on seven hits, including two home runs, and two walks while striking out four over six innings.

Marco Estrada somehow has out pitched his peripherals. His 88 mph fastball and 8.5 K/9 outwardly make no sense, yet the past two seasons have been great for Estrada. When he’s healthy, he can pitch deeply into games, get average to above average strike outs, and control his walks. However, when he loses his command and control he becomes a home run pitcher because of his affinity for pitching up in the zone. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (3-11, 3B, HR, 4 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Colby Rasmus’ rehab stint with the Charlotte Stone Crabs starts Thursday.

Rays outfielder Colby Rasmus will be hitting second & playing left field tonight for the Stone Crabs against @The_Marauders. pic.twitter.com/ELTSQzQS9j

— Charlotte StoneCrabs (@StoneCrabs) April 6, 2017

— ….So, we (Baseball Forever) made a pretty big announcement on Wednesday, and then we celebrated at Ferg’s! Unaware of our announcement? You can find out more here.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — yet ANOTHER series preview

September 12, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays rookie dress-up theme this season: Team USA wrestling. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays avoided a four-game sweep in the Bronx over the weekend with a 4-2 victory on Sunday against the Yankees. Next stop Toronto, where they are set to start a three-game series against the Blue Jays.

Before Tampa Bay lost six of its last eight, the team took two of three from the Blue Jays — nine of 16 overall (including a series win at home September 2nd – 4th). The Rays need just one victory to win the season series for the eighth time in nine years.

The Blue Jays need to turn things around, and quickly, if they are going to avoid missing the playoffs. Toronto has lost seven of nine, and suffice it to say this will be a critical three-game set before the ball club to the great white north heads out west for a seven game road trip.

Kevin Cash will lean on Jake Odorizzi (9-6, 3.86), Drew Smyly (6-11, 5.05 ERA), and Alex Cobb (0-0, 4.09 ERA) the next three days. John Gibbons will counter with Francisco Liriano (7-12, 5.27 ERA), RA Dickey (9-14, 4.60 ERA), and Marcus Stroman (9-7, 4.55 ERA). Note: pitching matchups are subject to change; keep checking back for any updates.

Rays Series Starters

Odorizzi allowed seven runs on six hits and three walks while striking out two over four innings on Tuesday. Odorizzi was okay until the fourth inning when he walked two, hit a batter, and gave up a pair of singles before allowing a grand slam to Manny Machado. Still, Odorizzi has been Tampa Bay’s most consistent pitcher of late, going nine straight starts while giving up three earned runs or fewer entering Tuesday’s debacle.

Smyly posted just 3-2/3 innings in a start against the Orioles on Wednesday, allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks. He fanned just two. The lefty has disappointed expectations this season, sporting a 5.05 ERA over 28 starts, although he’s done much better of late. And while his 1.28 WHIP suggests some back luck, the 30 home runs allowed (good enough for fifth most in the big leagues) certainly haven’t done Smyly any favors.

Cobb allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits over six innings on Thursday, striking out one without a walk. The righty regained his form by coaxing 13 ground balls to three fly balls. Unfortunately two of those fly balls left the yard. Be that as it may, Cobb has pitched well in two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, issuing just one walk over 11 innings.

Blue Jays Series Starters

Liriano, after being demoted to the bullpen following his August 26th turn on the mound, will start Monday. He will take the spot of RA Dickey in the Blue Jays’ rotation. The Rays roughed up Liriano on September 2nd, tagging him for three runs (two earned) on three hits. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (2-4, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3, 3B, RBI), Evan Longoria (5-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Alexi Ramirez (14-33, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Bobby Wilson (1-2, BB)

Dickey was slated to start Monday, but Gibbons decided to replace him in the rotation with Liriano for the time being. Dickey owns an unimpressive 6.23 ERA since the All-Star Break, including a 4.1 IP/4 R/6 H/3 BB start against Tampa Bay on August 8th. Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-4), Logan Forsythe (8-26, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (14-50, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB), Mikie Mahtook (1-1, 2B, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (4-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Alexi Ramirez (5-15, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-12, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB)

Stroman allowed two runs on seven hits over five innings on Wednesday, striking out eight and walking one. Toronto scored under three runs for the fourth time in Stroman’s last seven starts, leaving the righty with little to show for his efforts. He looked good (coaxing 15 whiffs) however, a two-run third inning — including a solo home — was enough to propel the Yankees to a victory. The Rays beat up on Stroman over six innings of work on September 2nd, tagging the righty for four runs (three earned) on five hits and two walks, including a homer. Curt Casali (2-6, RBI), Corey Dickerson (3-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (3-10, BB), Nick Franklin (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (8-19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Logan Morrison was diagnosed with a left wrist strain after fouling off a pitch in Sunday’s game against the Yankees. The team is expected to re-evaluate Morrison and provide an update on his outlook, however, Morrison doesn’t anticipate a return to the lineup this season, saying,

(I) Felt it pop on that one swing. More than likely, I’m probably done for the year.

Morrison returned from a strained right forearm on August 15.

— The Rays have recalled LHP Dana Eveland from Triple-A Durham, while designating RHP Tyler Sturdevant for assignment in order to create room on the 40-man roster. Though he didn’t fare well with the big league club this season, Eveland posted a 0.30 ERA with the Bulls.

— So you’re saying there’s still a chance… Any combination of a Tampa Bay loss or a Boston win the rest of the season will officially eliminate Rays from AL East contention.

— Troy Tulowitzki is 10-23 in his last six games after knocking in four runs on Sunday.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

September 2, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Alex Cobb gets warmed up before a rehab start in Daytona Beach, Fla. on Monday, July 11, 2016. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home, after having dropped four of their last six games, where they’ll face the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays, who’s won five of their last six. Tampa Bay actually has a 7-6 edge in the season series, although Toronto took two of three in the most recent series (August 8-10).

Despite the sloppy-play induced slump, the Rays played just a game under .500 throughout August. Since the All-Star Break, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has the lowest ERA in the American League. However, the pitching staff also has posted a combined 4.23 ERA/4.41 ERA over the last 14 days, due in part to an overworked bullpen that’s had to cover a lot of ground over that stretch.

The big story surrounding the upcoming series is the return of Alex Cobb, who will make his first big-league start in almost two years following Tommy John surgery. Expectations have to be lowered for his return, although with Tampa Bay out of contention, there is little to no pressure on Cobb to dominant in his return…although that would be pretty great to see.

Cobb had an ERA under 3.00 in 2013 and 2014, including a 10-9 mark with a 2.87 ERA in 2014 after going 11-3 with a 2.76 in 2013.

Kevin Cash will throw the above mentioned C0bb (0-3, 6.65 ERA), Blake Snell (4-7, 3.56 ERA), and Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10 ERA) over the next three days. John Gibbons will counter with Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.58 ERA) and RA Dickey (9-13, 4.43 ERA), with Saturday’s starter TBA.

Note: There may be a shuffling of the rotation, contrary to what you see above. We’ll keep you abreast of any changes/updates.

Rays Series Starters

Cobb struggled in eight rehab starts, going 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. Rays manager Kevin Cash remains encouraged, however. As I wrote above, tempered expectations are the key with Alex.

Snell was pulled in the fourth inning of his start Saturday against the Astros, after he was struck on the left leg by a comebacker. In that outing, the southpaw allowed five runs (four earned) on nine hits and no walks while striking out three. Though he sustained some bruising and soreness, Snell noticed improvement with his condition and doesn’t anticipate a stint on the DL (you know, hence the start).

Archer allowed three runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings on Sunday, striking out 10 Astros along the way. The righty has surrendered three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts, allowing him to lower his ERA some 32 points, from 4.42 to 4.10. He also surpassed the 200 strikeout mark once again, and has a fair chance of punching out at least 250 in back-to-back seasons.

Blue Jays Series Starters

Stroman will take Francisco Liriano’s scheduled start Friday night. The 25 year-old righty looks for a better result than his previous outing in which he surrendered five runs over six innings, but took a no-decision in the Blue Jays’ 8-7 win. In three starts against Tampa Bay Stroman is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA this season, including an abominable 5.2 IP/7 R/13 H/2 BB outing back on May 13. Key matchups: Curt Casali (2-6, RBI), Corey Dickerson (3-9, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-14, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (8-16, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB)

Dickey luckily came away with a no-decision on Sunday after he allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five. Josh Donaldson’s throwing error led to two unearned runs and helped salvage what otherwise was a rough outing for the knuckleballer. Dickey’s managed an excellent 0.31 HR/9 in August after giving up just one homer in 29 innings over five starts leading to a solid 3.41 ERA, although there’s reason to believe he’ll regress back to his 1.52 HR/9 season norm. The Rays have hammered Dickey, tagging the righty with 12 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits, including four homers, over 15-1/3 innings this season Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-4), Logan Forsythe (8-26, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (14-50, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB), Brad Miller 4-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (9-28, 2 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-12, HR, RBI, 2 BB)

Noteworthiness

— ICYMI, the Rays demoted Tim Beckham to Triple-A Durham as a punitive move after he committed yet another running blunder on Wednesday.

— ICYMI Part Deux, Tampa Bay promoted Curt Casali, Ryan Garton, and Eddie Gamboa on Thursday.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — a series preview

August 8, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Jake Odorizzi gets the start in Monday’s series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays may be last in the American League East, and second-to-last in the AL, but they have won six of of their last 10 games against the Blue Jays this season, including a three-game sweep in mid-May. They’ll take that success into Toronto where they’ll take on the second best team in the AL East, starting Monday.

Tampa Bay lost 6-3 Sunday in the series finale against the Minnesota Twins, completing a 6-4 homestand that included a three-game sweep of the Evil Empire.

In spite of their 45-65 overall record (50-60 Pythagorean Expectation, 55-55 BaseRuns), they are 11-11 since the All -Star break, and have been pitching well — allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of their past 13 games.

The Blue Jays are returning from a 4-3 road trip against the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals without much, if any, offensive production. Toronto was outscored 19-17 over the seven games and batted .138 with runners in scoring position.

They haven’t scored more than four runs in a game since July 30 when they plated nine against the Baltimore Orioles, who have one-game lead over the Blue Jays (63-49) in the AL East.

Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA), Drew Smyly (3-11, 5.14 ERA), and Blake Snell (3-4, 2.95 ERA) over the next three days. John Gibbons will counter with RA Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA), Marco Estrada (7-4, 2.92 ERA), and JA Happ (15-3, 3.09 ERA).

Rays Series Starters

Odorizzi posted a six inning shutout against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out six. That makes three consecutive scoreless outings for the righty, and he’s gone at least six frames each time.

Smyly pitched seven quality innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Thursday, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out 10. After a rough first half of the season, the southpaw appears to have turned a corner. He’s now collected three straight quality starts for the first time since April, and his 5.14 ERA — although still bloated — is down to its lowest mark since June 20.

Snell turned in another solid outing on Friday, striking out seven while giving up just one earned run on four hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings. The southpaw threw 97 pitches by the sixth, leading to his early exit, however, Snell was still impressive — inducing 12 swinging strikes and putting together a fifth straight start with no more than two earned runs allowed. He also didn’t allow a homer for the fourth time in his last five turns, giving up just two over 55 innings this season.

Blue Jays Series Starters

Dickey gave up just one run on six hits over seven innings in a win on Tuesday against the Astros. The knuckleballer struck out five. Dickey snapped a three-game losing skid with his outing, his first quality start since July 10 against the Royals. Dickey had full control over his repertoire and didn’t walk a batter. Free passes were a huge problem over his losing streak, as he walked nine batters and hit three more in just 14-2/3 innings. He is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, and 8-9 with a 4.33 ERA against the Rays overall. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (2-6, 2 2B, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (6-23, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (14-49, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-11, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Estrada held the Astros to four hits and a single run over seven strong innings on Wednesday. He struck out seven. Even though he’s been effective overall, July was his worst month of the season (4.24 ERA), and he hadn’t allowed fewer than two runs in an outing since May 30. Estrada is fifth among all big league starters in WHIP at 0.99, outperforming Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. The fastball/curveball/changeup/cutter throwing righty is 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA over three starts (and 31-1/3 innings) against the Rays. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-3, RBI), Logan Forsythe (3-8, 2B)

Happ fanned six over six innings Thursday in Houston, surrendering just one run on four hits and a walk en route to a 4-1 win. Happ’s become unbeatable in his age 33 season — Toronto hasn’t lost one of his starts since June 6, earning a win in nine of his 10 outings over that span. He’s been really good of late, allowing one run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Be that as it may, Happ is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, and 2-3 with a 5.37 ERA overall against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (4-10, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (5-19, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (10-26, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (2-3), Steven Souza Jr. (5-11, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI)