Rays vs Blue Jays series preview Archives - Page 3 of 6

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays — the Opening Series

April 2, 2016 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Corey Dickerson era begins Opening Day. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

At long last, the six month long baseball-less chasm, that constitutes the offseason and Spring Training, will be bridged Sunday afternoon. Behold the magnificence that is the Opening Series, dear friends. The Tampa Bay Rays will become one of six times to open the 2016 season on April 3, when they welcome their AL East foes, the Toronto Blue Jays, into the Trop for a four-game series.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive numbers (in 2015).

The Rays finished below .500 in each of the last two seasons after making the playoffs in four of the previous six campaigns. Yet the ball-club added some pop to an offense that finished second-to-last in the American League in runs scored, 13^th in batting average (.252) and 14^th in slugging percentage (.406) last season. Taking the field for the first time in a Rays uniform are 1B Logan Morrison, 1B/DH Steve Pearce, OF/DH Corey Dickerson, SS Brad Miller and C Hank Conger.

And thanks to those offseason moves, the PECOTA projection system has high hopes for Tampa Bay, estimating the Rays to win the AL East with a 91-71 record. Their success will be dependent upon the upgraded offense, that is expected to score 713 runs — 69 more than they plated in 2015. They’ll also depend upon the tried and true Rays way formula: pitching and defense. The Nate Silver curated projection system sees the Rays allowing just 619 runs (second best in the AL, and just four runs behind Cleveland), while FRAA (fielding runs above average) pegs the team’s defense to save 57.8 runs above average for the best in baseball.

On the flip side of the coin, Toronto came within two wins of reaching the World Series last fall. The potent Blue Jays offense plated 127 more runs than their closest competitor and led the majors in homers (232) in 2015. That high octane offense will define the team again this season. The question begs, can Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore stifle the team that also led the majors in slugging percentage (.457) and on-base percentage (.797) last season? The three-headed beast that is Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion combined for 120 of the team’s homers and 937 RBI in 2015, and the Rays front four will be tasked with silencing those bats.

Of course there are some caveats for the Blue Jays. First, Encarnacion didn’t appear in any official Spring Training games which calls into question his timing and ability to see the ball at the moment. Then there’s the fact that the Rays won the season series against Toronto last season 10-9. Tampa Bay is also 6-4 in its last 10 home games against the Jays.

Rays series starters and key matchups

Rays and Blue Jays series starters (in 2015).

Kevin Cash will send Archer to the mound in Sunday’s season opener. Archer, who went 12-13 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2015, has held Toronto’s current lineup to a .174 career batting average. Moreover, Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion are only 12-for-86 (.139) combined against the Rays ace.

Smyly, who gets the ball Monday, went 5-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 12 starts in 2015. Since joining the Rays, he has gone 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 19 starts. Fun fact: The three pitchers with the lowest ERA in the America League since the 2014 trade deadline (min 15GS) are Drew Smyly (2.52), Dallas Keuchel (Smyly’s college roommate, 2.56) and David Price (traded for Smyly, 2.75).

Then there’s Odorizzi. The lanky right-hander went at least seven innings in 15 of his 28 starts last season. Odorizzi posted a 2.79 ERA at the Trop in 2015.

Finally, Moore will round out the front four on Wednesday. The southpaw returned from an extended stint at Durham last season and collected a 2-1 record with a 2.97 ERA in his final six starts.

Key matchups

Marcus Stroman: Stroman missed most of last season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, yet he was outstanding upon his return including three decent postseason starts. The 24 year-old went 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 26 games in 2014. Stroman won his only start at Tampa Bay in September 2014, allowing just two runs on seven scattered hits over six innings. He went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across four starts. What to expect from Stroman: a 93 mph sinker, an 86 mph slider, an 83 mph curveball, an 85 mph change, a 90 mph cutter, and a 93 mph four-seam fastball. Key matchups: Curt Casali (2-3), Hank Conger (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Desmond Jennings (2-4, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (3-5, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Steve Pearce (3-5, HR, RBI, BB)

RA Dickey: Dickey told reporters he felt better this Spring than he has in years, and because of it he hopes that he can avoid the slow start which has plagued the knuckleballer in each of the last three seasons. Last April, Dickey went 0-3 with a 5.23 ERA over 31 innings. Boding well for the Rays, they finally figured Dickey out last season, collecting a 3-1 record against the 41 year-old with a 4.40 ERA. When facing Dickey the old adage goes, if it’s high let it fly, if it’s low let it go. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, 2B, BB), Hank Conger (1-2), Logan Forsythe (6-21, 2 2B, 3 RBI), Brandon Guyer (3-12, 2B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (11-43, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Brad Miller (2-7, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (6-23, 2 2B, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, RBI, BB)

Aaron Sanchez: Despite initially being considered for the bullpen, Sanchez was officially named to the rotation after collecting a 1.35 ERA, 19 strikeouts and just three walks over 20 Spring innings. The 23 year-old righty relies primarily on a 93 mph sinker, while mixing in an electric 95 mph four-seam fastball and an 80 mph curve. Sanchez went 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA over 8-2/3 innings against Tampa Bay last season. Key matchups: Brandon Guyer (1-2) Kevin Kiermaier (2-2, 2B), Logan Morrison (1-4, 2B), Steve Pearce (1-4, BB)

JA Happ: Happ will always be intrinsically linked with the Rays after he being struck in the head by a Desmond Jennings comebacker in 2013. The lefty tossed 14-2/3 innings this Spring and allowed five runs on 15 hits and three walks with nine strikeouts. The lefty had an incredible second half of 2015 spinning 63-1/3 innings of 1.85 ERA baseball after coming to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. However, with Toronto, he collected a career 4.13 ERA. Happ isn’t overpowering, yet he gets by by mixing his 93 mph four-seam fastball with an 85 mph cutter, 92 mph sinker, 79 mph curveball and an 86 mph change. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, BB), Desmond Jennings (3-6, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (7-18, 2 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Brad Miller (2-3), Logan Morrison (7-14, 3 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Steve Pearce (7-19, 2 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Rays 3B Evan Longoria has 141 career hits against the Blue Jays, tied for the most hits he has against any opposing team.

— Kevin Kiermaier batted .315 in 16 games against Toronto in 2015.

— The team filled the need for experienced catching depth at the Triple-A level by acquiring Carlos Corporan from New York for cash considerations.

Corporan has played parts of six seasons in the big leagues with the Brewers, Astros and Rangers. By adding Hank Conger to the big-league roster and releasing Rene Rivera, Tampa Bay had only one catcher with big-league experience, Luke Maile, who made nine starts last September.

— MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred will be in attendance for the season opener. He is expected to meet with media prior to the game.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays ― the Final Series Preview of the Year

October 2, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

John Jaso hits a single to right field off of pitcher Jose Fernandez during the third inning on October 1, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The end is nigh. The Tampa Bay Rays have come full circle from the start of the season to now, and they are set to start the final series of the season on Friday when the Toronto Blue Jays come to town.

In my estimation, the Rays are playing for three things: Pride, the desire to end things on a high note, and the ability to end the season with a .500 record. However, to accomplish those things may be easier said than done ― we all saw first hand what Toronto is capable of when the Jays sunk Tampa Bay in a three game sweep last weekend.

Tampa Bay is coming off a three game sweep of the Miami Marlins; their first since July 10-12 when they took three from the Houston Astros. Coming off a pair of losses against the Orioles, the Blue Jays are still in the fight for the best record in the American League with the Royals. That is, don’t expect either team to roll over and allow the other to take advantage.

Kevin Cash will throw Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Archer, and Matt Moore over the next three days. After allowing a two-run homer to David Ortiz in the first inning on September 24th, Ramirez (11-6, 3.65 ERA) held Boston scoreless over the next six innings, earning his 11th win of the year. In 18 starts with at least two runs of support this season, he is 11-1 with a 2.87 ERA. The righty has worked seven innings in three straight starts, and is 11-5 with a 2.99 ERA since moving into rotation full time. Ramirez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 18 starts. Archer (12-13, 3.26 ERA) experienced his worst outing of the season in his last start against Toronto, allowing nine runs on 10 hits in 3-2/3 innings, including five walks and two home runs. Moore (2-4, 5.84 ERA) gave Tampa Bay his third consecutive quality start en route to his fifth win of the year on Tuesday. Moore is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA in five starts since his September 5 recall from Triple-A Durham.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.

Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.76 ERA) enters his start Friday 8-2/3 innings shy of hitting the 200-inning plateau for the 15th consecutive season. Warren Spahn, Don Sutton and Gaylord Perry are the only ones to have done it. The quick working lefty took a no-decision in his last start, giving up three earned runs across six innings on Sunday. He gave up eight hits and two walks while striking out one. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (4-8), Logan Forsythe (10-25, 4 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (7-20, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, RBI), James Loney (7-27, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (16-50, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Mikie Mahtook (2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Daniel Nava (4-13, 2B, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-9, HR, RBI, BB)

Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.15 ERA) has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 outings while posting a 2.63 ERA over that stretch. Estrada did not factor into the decision on Monday against Baltimore, surrendering four hits, three earned runs and a walk over 7-1/3 innings. He struck out two. The righty enjoyed his third consecutive quality start, capping off a strong September. Estrada was sharp with his control as well, throwing 58 of 82 pitches for strikes, though he induced just seven whiffs. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, 2B, BB), Logan Forsythe (3-8, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-4, RBI), James Loney (2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Grady Sizemore (1-4, BB)

Sunday’s starter is TBA.

Noteworthiness

― The Rays have homered in a season high 11 consecutive games.

― Tampa Bay has played in an MLB most 93 games decided by one or two runs; they are 45-48 overall.

― The Rays and Marlins played the first regular-season interleague game in October in major-league history on Thursday. There have been 617 such meetings in World Series play.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays ― A Series Preview

September 25, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Third base coach Charlie Montoyo congratulates Evan Longoria after he crushed homer number 204 over the Monstah on September 24, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays packed their belongings and exited the tin can like confines of Fenway Park after winning three of four against the Boston Red Sox. Next stop Toronto, where the Rays will take on David Price and the Blue Jays, in their last road series of the 2015 season.

As with the Rays’ fall from grace, Toronto’s ascension to the top of the AL East has been well documented. Still, the Blue Jays have struggled against Tampa Bay this season, dropping six of seven to the Rays back in April. The Jays, however, have gone 4-2 since.

The Rays will see the Blue Jays after what can be described as a challenging week for Toronto, who has lost three of their last five at home to the Yankees and divisional rival Boston Red Sox, and are just 5-5 over the past 10 games. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has played consistent ball of late ― winning six of 10, and posting a +15 run differential in those victories.

Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Matt Andriese over the next three days. Odorizzi (8-8, 3.38 ERA) fell short of six innings pitched for just the sixth time this season. He also was unable to win for the first time (in six starts) when he received at least four runs of support. Archer (12-12, 2.92 ERA) reached the 200-innings plateau for the first time in his career on Monday night. Unfortunately for Archer and the Rays, he came away with a no-decision after allowing just one run on three hits and five walks in five innings. Andriese (3-5, 4.37) will make the start on Sunday in place of Matt Moore, who will face the Marlins on Tuesday. The rotation shuffle set up marquee matchup Saturday afternoon in Toronto: Chris Archer vs. David Price — student vs. mentor. In any case, Andriese has a 5.27 ERA in 15 relief appearances this year, compared to a 3.62 ERA in seven starts.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue jays by the numbers.

RA Dickey (10-11, 4.05 ERA) has allowed 13 earned runs over 23-2/3 innings against Tampa Bay this season, but seven of those came in one outing on April 24. Outside of that one blowout loss, Dickey has tossed three quality starts vs. the Rays. Dickey got a no-decision on Saturday despite a quality start, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk over six innings while striking out three. It was Dickey’s fourth QS in his last five starts. Key matchups: JP Arencibia (1-2, HR, 3 RBI), Tim Beckham (1-3, 2B, 2 BB), Asdrubal Cabrera (6-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (6-19, 2 2B, 3 RBI), John Jaso (3-7, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (10-40, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Grady Sizemore (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, RBI, BB)

David Price (17-5, 2.34 ERA) has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, and in 19 of his last 23 outings. He allowed two just hits during his last start vs. the Yankees, which was the fewest he’s allowed since August 21, 2014, in a loss at Tampa Bay. The Rays tagged Price for five runs on seven hits (including two homers) over six innings on July 28th. The lefty, however, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any game since. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, RBI), Asdrubal Cabrera (5-18, 3 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB), Nick Franklin (1-4, 2B, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (1-3, 2B)

Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.69 ERA) took a no-decision, giving up three earned runs across six innings on Sunday. He gave up eight hits and two walks while striking out one. The lefty is 14-2/3 innings shy of reaching the 200 mark for the 15th consecutive year, but he’s starting to run out of time. He has two starts remaining, otherwise he might have to chase the milestone pitching out of the bullpen. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (3-5), Logan Forsythe (9-22, 4 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (6-18, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-11, RBI), James Loney (7-27, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (16-47, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Mikie Mahtook (1-1, HR, 2 RBI), Daniel Nava (4-13, 2B, HR, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, HR, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— How many Rays and Jays stats can you take? Per the Toronto Star:

The Jays are 1-6 vs. the Rays this year in games decided by two runs or less. The Jays have been outscored by the Rays 51-47 in the 13 games, averaging just 7.5 combined runs per contest.

Jays were 1-6 vs. the Rays in April and that month were 10-5 vs. everyone else.

The Jays were 11-8 vs. the Rays in 2014, including a 5-4 mark at the Rogers Centre.

The Jays vs. the Rays lifetime are 145-163 (83-72 in Toronto; 62-91 in St. Pete and Orlando).

The Jays are 26-35 vs. the Rays at home since 2009.

— With his sixth inning blast in the series finale, Evan Longoria joined Eddie Mathews, Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen as the only third basemen in major league history to hit 20 HR seven times in their first eight seasons.

— Q: See you at Green Bench Brewing Company on Friday? A: See you at Green Bench Brewing Company on Friday!

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays, Part Four — A Series Preview

July 17, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

David DeJesus celebrates with third base coach Charlie Montoyo after hitting a one-run triple to score Logan Forsythe during the second inning of a game on July 12, 2015. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

After being hampered by the injury bug in the first half — in which the team both over and underperformed for stretches of the season — the Tampa Bay Rays will resume play on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays with a winning 46-45 record and the confidence they can remain in contention for a postseason berth.

The good guys will look to build on the three consecutive wins that preceded the All-Star Break when they visit the Rogers Centre for a three-game set against a scuffling Toronto team. The Rays allowed just four runs during their sweep of Houston last weekend, allowing them to move into second place in the American League East — 3-½ games behind the New York Yankees. All this after losing 15 of their previous 18 contests.

We feel that through all the injuries, through all the ups and downs, we’ve put ourselves with the opportunity to make a run at it in the second half, David DeJesus told the Tampa Bay Times.

In order for Tampa Bay to remain relevant from this point forward, the offense — which currently stands 13th in the AL in runs — must be more consistent. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have scored 77 more runs than any team in the majors. However, Toronto has dropped its last four series while going 4-10.

Kevin Cash will throw Jake Odorizzi, Erasmo Ramirez, and Chris Archer over the course of the next three days. Odorizzi (5-5, 2.30 ERA) was solid in his first start since missing a little over a month with an oblique injury, limiting the Astros to two hits in 5-2/3 scoreless innings on Saturday. The righty has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 13 outings in 2015, holding opponents to a .210 average. Odorizzi is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four career starts versus the Blue Jays, and has controlled Jose Bautista (0-for-9), Jose Reyes (1-for-10) and Edwin Encarnacion (1-for-8). Ramirez allowed just one run on four hits, while walking one and fanning five over six innings on Friday night. The smiley one has culled an impressive 95.2% LOB over his last 25-2/3 innings of work, something no other starter in the rotation can say. Archer wasn’t so great in his last start, surrendering nine runs and 12 hits while striking out six and walking two over six innings. The All-Star righty will look to bounce back against a Blue Jays team he has fared well against in the past.

Despite a less than operable outcome in the last meeting between the two teams (6/22-6/25), Tampa Bay is 7-3 against Toronto this season with nine games remaining in the season series. What’s more, the Rays are 5-1 in games decided by two runs or less against the Jays. The road warriors are 22-18 on the road this year — the fifth straight season for the Rays playing above .500 on the road (the longest active streak in the majors). They are 240-208 on the road since 2010.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters in the first half of the 2015 season.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production in the first half of the 2015 season.

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.

Drew Hutchison: Hutchinson (8-2, 5.33) has struggled in his last two starts, yielding 11 runs (nine earned) over 9-2/3 innings after going 5-0 in his previous seven outings. The 24 year-old righty has been much better at home (6-1, 2.12 ERA) than on the road (2-1, 8.81), although he is 3-2 lifetime versus the Rays with a plus five ERA. Key matchups: Joey Butler (2-3), David DeJesus (2-5, HR, 2 RBI), Jake Elmore (1-2, 2B, BB), Logan Forsythe (1-4, BB), Brandon Guyer (1-3), John Jaso (2-3, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-7, 2 2B, RBI, BB), James Loney (4-8, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB)

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey (3-10, 4.87) pitched well Thursday, conceding two earned runs across seven innings while striking out six, but was tagged with the loss against the White Sox. The Rays won all three games they played the Jays with Dickey on the mound in 2015, tagging the knuckle baller for 12 runs in 17-2/3 innings. Key matchups: Joey Butler (1-3, RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (5-17, 2 2B, 3 RBI), Brandon Guyer (2-7, 2 2B, RBI, BB), John Jaso (1-4, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (10-37, 4 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB), Grady Sizemore (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB)

Marco Estrada: Per Rotowire, Estrada (6-5, 3.52 ERA) pitched well in a loss to the Royals on Friday, allowing two runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out two over 6-2/3 innings. Estrada has increased his reliance upon his change-up to great effect: “He’s throwing the change more often than ever before, and it’s still getting as many whiffs as ever (23.1% whiff rate),” wrote Eno Saris (FanGraphs). “…Estrada has the fourth-best change-up among starters by whiff rate. But if you look at his overall line, you can see he’s doing the same thing as ever — showing a great whiff rate, a decent walk rate, a low BABIP… and a terrible home run rate.” Estrada has pitched well against Tampa Bay this season, allowing no runs in 13 innings (one start). Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (2-5, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-4, RBI), John Jaso (1-3), James Loney (1-2, 2B, 2 RBI), Grady Sizemore (1-1, BB)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are looking toward the August return of Desmond Jennings and Drew Smyly to help make a difference in the second half, rather than any huge trade at the July 31 deadline. Although the chance to bolster the offense — to better supplement their strong pitching and defense — may warrant attention.

Per Marc Topkin,

Even then, it would be a small, under-the-radar move, adding a part-time player they can use in a specialized role. But if they wanted to dream big, and at least consider trading for a proven big bat, they would find some options, perhaps none more appealing than San Diego’s Justin Upton, who could add right-handed power and would have less than $7 million left on the last year of his contract.

— Joey Butler batted .338 through June 23 but has recorded only four hits in 41 at-bats since then.

— The Rays placed Asdrubal Cabrera, who has committed only two errors in 82 contests, on the 15-day disabled list with a hamstring injury.

— 2B Devon Travis is 9-20 over his last five games and is hitting .370 versus the Rays this season.

— Slugger Jose Bautista, who missed the All-Star Game with a sore shoulder, is expected back for the Blue Jays while teammate Jose Reyes is 14-38 during an eight-game hitting streak.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Blue Jays, Part Three — A Series Preview; Injury Update

June 22, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Jake Elmore reacts after striking out against Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Cody Allen. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their dominance over the Blue Jays when they welcome Joey Bats and company into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Monday. The Rays, who lead the American League with a combined 3.28 ERA, have won six of seven against the major league’s top-scoring team in 2015, holding the Blue Jays to two runs or fewer five times. The team returns home after a solid 4-1 road-trip, having won eight of 10 overall to maintain a one-game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees — three ahead of the Blue Jays.

Tampa Bay will start Matt Andriese, Chris Archer and Nathan Karns over the course of the series. Andriese has won his last two outings — once each as a starter and a reliever — while allowing just two runs over 9-2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox and Washington. The Rays have won in his last six appearances, while the righty which has fanned 16 and walked three. Archer put 10 men on base (eight hits and two walks) and struck out just three in five innings on Thursday, but limited the damage to three runs and came away with the win. Karns allowed one run on six hits while walking one and striking out four over 5-1/3 innings on Friday night.

For Toronto, the Blue Jays will attempt to continue their winning ways of late. The Jays have dropped four of their last seven, showing that the mighty team from the great white north can be stopped. The potentially brief lull came after the Blue Jays won 11 in a row, while scoring (on average) close to seven runs per game over the last 18 games. Toronto’s pitching staff allowed just under four runs (on average) per game in that span. Adding to their reputation of being a powerful team, nine of the last 14 wins have been lopsided.

However, the Blue Jays have made a nasty habit of putting it all together, only to return to mediocrity afterward. In fact, they did so in each of the last two seasons.

2014: Toronto won nine straight, and 15 out of 17, then dropped 10 of 13.
2013: Though they won 11 straight, the Blue Jays followed by dropping a pair to Tampa Bay, then losing 19 of the next 25 games (going into the All-Star Break).

Are they a good team? Absolutely, that goes without saying. But, they just can’t seem to put it together consistently. The Rays can put some distance between themselves and the Jays with a series win this week.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters of the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays offensive numbers over the last 14 days.

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.

Drew Hutchison: Hutchison (6-1, 5.33 ERA) has won his last three decisions, allowing one run combined across 21 innings in the trio of wins. However, Hutchison owns a 5.65 ERA in those three starts. He has been inconsistent, permitting five or more runs in five of his 14 starts and two or fewer in seven of them. Hutchison is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA in five career outings against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (1-3, 3B), David DeJesus (1-3, HR, RBI), Brandon Guyer (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2 2B, BB).

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey will return from the bereavement list Monday and is in line to make his next scheduled start Tuesday, SportsNet’s Shi Davidi reports. The Rays “figured out” Dickey the last time they faced the knuckle-baller on April 24. They chased him from the game after just 4-2/3 innings, tagging Dickey for eight runs on nine hits including two homers. However, you can never be sure of what you’ll get when RA is on the mound. One thing is certain, he’s allowed four or more runs four times since the 24th, and seven times overall. Furthermore, Dickey is showing regression — his O-Swing (27.8%), first-pitch strike (58.1%), and swinging strike (9.0%) rates are down, while his Z-swing (68.3%), Z-contact (83.7%), and overall contact (80.7%) rates are up. Combine his regressed numbers with a decrease in knuckleball velocity, and you’re left with a pitcher who has become a middle of the rotation starter with a -0.2 WAR, not an ace. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (5-13, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (4-14, 2 2B, 3 BB), Evan Longoria (9-35, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Rene Rivera (1-4, HR, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. 1-2, RBI, BB).

Marco Estrada: Per Rotowire, Estrada flirted with a no-hitter, eventually allowing one run on one hit, walking four and striking out six over seven-plus innings of a 5-4 win against the Orioles on Friday night. As Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) pointed out, Estrada has increased his reliance upon his change-up to great effect: “He’s throwing the change more often than ever before, and it’s still getting as many whiffs as ever (23.1% whiff rate). …Estrada has the fourth-best change-up among starters by whiff rate. But if you look at his overall line, you can see he’s doing the same thing as ever — showing a great whiff rate, a decent walk rate, a low BABIP… and a terrible home run rate.” Estrada allowed just two hits and two walks to the Rays in 4-1/3 combined innings of work this season. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-1, RBI).

Noteworthiness

— Steve Geltz has retired 25 consecutive batters, one shy of Kyle Farnsworth’s franchise record in 2011.

— The Rays are 19-2 when Evan Longoria knocks in a run this season. Longoria has 86 RBIs in 121 career games against the Blue Jays.

— Matt Moore made his fourth (of five or six) rehab start on Sunday with Triple-A Durham and, and threw 92 pitches over 5-1/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits (two home runs) while striking out seven and walking one. The lefty reportedly felt good after after the start, clocking in the 92-93 mph range with his fastball. He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session at the Trop on Tuesday, then be reevaluated for the next step. The lefty return to the rotation in 10-15 days, putting his return around July 1.

— Jake Odorizzi threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Monday afternoon at Tropicana Field. He told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) that the plan right now is for him to rejoin the rotation in two weeks. Between then and now Odorizzi will throw another bullpen session (on Wednesday), throw live batting practice on Saturday, and begin a rehabilitation assignment thereafter.

— Other Rays injury updates: James Loney fielded ground balls at the Trop Monday afternoon; he is scheduled to take dry swings later this week. John Jaso hit in the batting cage to face more velocity than he would in batting practice. Finally, Drew Smyly threw long toss from 105 feet.

— Erasmo Ramirez told Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times) that he’s feeling better, and will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, which will determine whether he’ll start this Friday against the Red Sox.

— Jose Bautista is 5-11 with eight RBI in his last four games and has reached base in 29 of the last 30 contests.