Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Misplays and an Unproductive Offense Spoil Smyly’s Start

In May I wrote about just wanting to see the Tampa Bay Rays play consistent baseball, back when it seemed like a postseason berth was both improbable and impossible. Yet toward the beginning of June, the Rays started playing uber consistent, .700 ball, and the impossible almost seemed within reach — the odds of Tampa Bay making the postseason jumped from a sub 1% chance to a 15% chance over the course of a month and a half. But after dropping four of their last five, including last night’s disappointing 3-o loss to the Athletics, the Rays have dropped back down to a 3.9% chance of making the playoffs (per Fan Graphs).