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The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the final series preview of the regular season

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Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays look to end the 2018 campaign on a high note this weekend. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are ready to open their season-ending series on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field. Both teams are coming off series losses to the Yankees and Astros (respectively).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays are looking to close the book on a stellar second half after starting the season with a disappointing 4-13 overall record. Tampa Bay has a legitimate shot of winning 90 games for the first time since 2013, making the small market heroes a popular pick to sneak into the postseason in 2019. More than that though, the players are looking to set some individual achievements this weekend.

Blake Snell will take the hill on Saturday with one last start to solidify his AL Cy Young Award bid. 1B/DH C.J. Cron, who had hit 16 homers in each of his three seasons with Los Angeles, enters the series with 29 and a shot to get over 30. 3B Matt Duffy has a chance to become the first qualifying Ray (3.1 plate appearance per team game, 502 for a full season) to hit .300 in seven years, since Casey Kotchman in 2011. Then there is Joey Wendle, who is vying for an AL Rookie of the Year nomination.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Recently-acquired OF Tommy Pham has been on fire since coming over at the trade deadline. Pham is batting a healthy .346 with seven home runs, seven doubles, and five triples as a member of the Rays, sporting a 2.3 fWAR and a 1.087 OPS in 35 games with his new team.

But Pham insisted you have not seen the best of him yet in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times, saying:

Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out some things. And I think when I do figure it out, whether it be this year or the offseason because it will be figured out before next season, I think I could truly be the player I think I’m capable of being. I just haven’t figured out how to fix myself just yet.

I have a lot of ability. The key to this game is just putting it all together. The guys that are really good in this game, they know how to put it together. And when you showcase it consistently, you get the great you. I haven’t showcased my ability consistently like I did last year. … The key is being consistent all year.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA), Blake Snell (21-5, 1.90 ERA), and an as of now unnamed array of hurlers in the season finale. John Gibbons, who could be managing in his last series with Toronto, will counter with Thomas Pannone (4-1, 3.86 ERA), Ryan Borucki (4-5, 3.76 ERA), and Marco Estrada (7-14, 5.64 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite throwing a quality start. The right-hander allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while striking out six across six innings. Glasnow gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on a Rowdy Tellez two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. It was his fourth quality start in five outings although he is just 1-5 in his last six turns on the mound.

Thomas Pannone earned the win Saturday against Tampa Bay, pitching 6-2/3 innings while allowing two runs on six hits (including two home runs) and three walks. He struck out five. Pannone has won each of his last three outings, all quality starts. He, however, has struck out only 6.2 batters per nine innings and doesn’t boast much velocity (88.4 mph average before Saturday’s outing). The Rays seek to pay him back. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-5), CJ Cron (1-2, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2), Tommy Pham (1-3, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 2B), Jesus Sucre (1-3, HR, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB)

Blake Snell blanked Toronto across 6-2/3 innings on Sunday, allowing three hits and two walks. He struck out 11. The southpaw was outstanding once again, winning his ninth consecutive start. Snell relinquished just three singles and during his nine-start winning streak has given up only six earned runs in 46 innings. He has a sterling 1.90 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP this season.

Ryan Borucki was dealt a loss on Sunday even though he allowed just two runs on three hits and four walks while striking out seven over seven innings. Borucki was solid once again, limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer for his fourth straight start. Borucki was nicked for RBI doubles in the fourth and sixth innings, saddling him with the loss. He is 0-2 but with a 2.77 ERA against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Tommy Pham (1-4, 2 BB), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

TBA

Marco Estrada allowed four runs on seven hits and one walk across 4-2/3 innings. He struck out one. Estrada got off to a rocky start, giving up a run in the first inning, two in the second and another in the third. Two of the four runs allowed came via the home-run ball. Estrada owns a 5.64 ERA and 103 strikeouts across 143-2/3 frames in what could be his final outing as a Blue Jay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-1, 2B, BB), Ji-Man Choi (2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI), CJ Cron (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-6, 2B, 3 RBI), Carlos Gomez (3-6, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier was shut down for the rest of the season after he was hit on the foot by an 84 mph slider from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka on Wednesday.

It didn’t feel good from the start, Kiermaier said. I hate coming out of games and I wanted to try and tough it out.

After being pulled from the game in the third inning, an X-ray revealed a hairline fracture in a small bone on the side of the foot.

It’s just an unfortunate way for me to end the season but that’s kind of my 2018, in a nutshell, Kiermaier said. I feel like everything that could’ve went wrong for me did.

I just want to let everyone know that I wasn’t the player that I know I could have been this, obviously the worst of my career dating back my whole life, ever since I was born. I take my job and what I do very seriously. But it seems like every ball I hit hard this year was an out. Every diving play that could have been made was made on me. And of course an 84 mph slider breaks a bone in my foot.

— Matt Duffy left Wednesday’s game after the first inning with right quad tightness that he said had been bothering him for several days. Duffy said he isn’t ruling out returning this weekend although he is going to be cautious.

Tampa Bay Rays 9/25/18 pregame notes, etc

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Blake Snell is donating his jersey from win No. 21 to the Rays display in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After being officially eliminated from the Wildcard race on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back to their winning ways on Tuesday against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field.

We’re obviously proud of what we’ve accomplished this year, third baseman Matt Duffy said. It is unfortunate, you can go back and look at a game here, a game there that we let get away or should have won. The reality is that’s baseball. … With where we stood coming into the season, the expectations that were on us, I think everybody kind of expected us to have as many losses as we have wins now.

We’re not a hidden little secret anymore. I think the Red Sox and Yankees and other teams in the league are going to approach us with a little more caution going forward. That’s going to make our jobs tougher next year.

The Rays fought hard for a postseason berth, going 25-8 since August 19 and 38-22 since the All-Star Break.

Well, Marc, to answer your question, Baseball Prospectus had the Rays pegged for 84 wins (+/- six games), so my guess is them.

With the immediate postseason window settled, Tampa Bay’s focus now shifts to winning at least 90 games for the first time since 2013. The Rays will need to win three of their final six games to get to 90 victories, and two more to reach 50 wins at the Trop.

Tampa Bay is 8-8 against the Bronx Bummers and would need to take two of the final three games to take the season series. That will be a challenge, however, as the Rays will face Luis Severino tonight.

The New What Next

Jake Faria (4-3, 5.17 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA).

Faria threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Rangers. The right-hander has made just three appearances in September, allowing five runs across five innings. Faria last started on August 1- against New York, allowing one run in 3-1/3 innings in a 6-1 victory. Jalen Beeks is also available to provide length today.

Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Rays 9/25/18 Starting Lineup

Smith RF
Wendle 3B
Pham LF
Choi 1B
Lowe 2B
Cron DH
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS
Moore C
Faria RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

Noteworthiness

— Ji-Man Choi is getting the start at first base while Adam Moore will get the start behind the plate.

— Sure looks like the other Bay Area team, who we’ll be rooting for, is pretty excited for their playoff berth:

— Blake Snell is donating his jersey from win No. 21 to the Rays display in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.

Rays 9/24/18 pregame notes; Carlos Gomez fined

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Diego Castillo is lined up to open for the Rays tonight.

After finishing their final road trip of the season on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to begin a four-game series against the New York Yankees. At 87-68  on the season, Tampa Bay can move to 20 games above .500 for the first time this season with a win.

Tampa Bay needs to win at least three of the final seven games to get to 90 for the first time since 2013. Two more wins would help the Rays reach 50 at home. Per Neil Solondz, so far only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have won 50 games in their home ballpark.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying to stay ahead of Oakland for the top Wildcard spot, as they look to host that game.

The New What Next

Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jonathan Holder (1-3, 2.97 ERA), not Luis Severino as previously thought. This could likely be due, in part, to lining up their Wildcard starter properly. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings.

Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Holder has faced the Rays on five occasions and has allowed runs in two of those outings.

Rays 9/24/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Duffy 3B
Choi DH
Pham LF
Wendle SS
Lowe 2B
Meadows RF
Bauers 1B
Ciuffo C
Castillo RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier, who banged his shoulder on a catch yesterday and aggravated it on a check swing, is available off the bench today. Willy Adames is sick for the second straight day, although he too is available.

— Carlos Gomez was fined by Major League Baseball for comments about umpire Andy Fletcher, although he plans to appeal. Gomez did not disclose the amount of the fine saying, “I don’t think it’s fair,” yet sources say it was for $10,000.

You can read more about what led up to the fine below.

LBWMF: Rays punish Blue Jays, 11-3; Andy Fletcher’s liberal strike zone

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

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Tommy Pham scored on a sixth-inning double by CJ Cron on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Following their 5-2 win in the road finale against the Blue Jays on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field ahead of a four-game series against the New York Yankees. In spite of the two tough losses in Toronto, the Rays won five of seven during their last road trip of the season. The Yankees took two of three from the lowly Orioles, yet fell 6-3 on Sunday. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 10-10 over a 20-game stretch.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need a lot of help from Seattle this week, as they sit 6.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 7 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

There is still a way the Rays can make it to the playoffs, albeit one that is absolutely improbable: Tampa Bay must win all seven games on their homestand against the Yankees and Blue Jays, while the Athletics must lose the final six games of their season. The odds of that happening are astronomical, to say the least.

Still, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) opined, the Rays might be motivated to make life tough on the rival Yankees, who are trying to keep the home-field advantage in the AL Wildcard game. On top of that, the team has a chance to finish with 90-plus wins, thus defying even the bullish 85-win PECOTA projection from February. And while that may not offer much solace to the casual fan, two things bear mentioning:

  1. The Rays are a young team with a high upside for years to come. A successful season at the big league level will go a long way for the kids.
  2. The last time the Rays put together a 90+ win campaign without the benefit of a trip to the playoffs (in 2012), they played relevant games past September 30 the following season — a game 163 tie-breaker, and the subsequent Wildcard win thrust them into the ALDS against Boston.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

As has been the case for the second half of the season (.268 BA/.346 OBP/.430 SLG/.776 OPS/.336 wOBA/115 +wRC for Tampa Bay vs .242 BA/.326 OBP/.424 SLG/.750 OPS/.325 wOBA/103 wRC+ for New York) the Rays have outperformed the Yankees offensively over the last 14 days. The question begs, however: Can the Rays continue their recent dominance over the Yankees? Tampa Bay has won eight of the last 10 games against the Bronx Bummers after starting the season 0-5. Moreover, the Rays are 5-1 against the Yankees at home.

Pitching Probables

Note: It is rather difficult to project who will take the mound over the life of the series since only one hurler has been named; Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25 ERA) will open the series for the Rays. Beyond that, it’s a reasonable assumption the below-listed hurlers will toe the rubber for dueling foes this week, based on when they last pitched. This projection is in no way, shape, or form set in stone. I will make note of any changes as they are announced, either in this series preview or in subsequent articles.

Kevin Cash could lean primarily on Ryan Yarbrough (15-5, 3.88 ERA), Yonny Chirinos (4-5, 3.68 ERA), Jalen Beeks (5-1, 5.36 ERA), and Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA) over the next four days. Aaron Boone could counter with Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (12-5, 3.67 ERA), CC Sabathia (8-7, 3.77 ERA), and Lance Lynn (9-10, 4.80 ERA).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Diego Castillo has been the Rays’ opener on 10 occasions so far this season, and Monday will mark the 11th. Castillo allowed one run on one hit (a home run) in one inning of work on Friday. Otherwise, the right-hander has given up just two runs in his last eight appearances (totaling 11-2/3 innings) while striking out 15 and walking just two (a 7.5 K/BB over that stretch).

Ryan Yarbrough picked up his 15th win of the season on Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks across four innings. He struck out six. The southpaw wasn’t exactly sharp, but he was able to pick up the win thanks to a plethora of run support from Tampa Bay’s offense. Working primarily as a long reliever, the southpaw has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 123 strikeouts across 139-1/3 innings this season.

Luis Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Yonny Chirinos tossed 4-2/3 scoreless innings, yet took a no-decision on Thursday, allowing just one hit and a walk while striking out five. After the “opener” Ryne Stanek allowed three straight hits to start the second inning, Chirinos came in and shut the Blue Jays down. The 24-year-old now owns a 3.68 ERA and would’ve earned the victory had it not been for a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed five earned runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out three across four innings on Thursday against the Red Sox. Tanaka never got comfortable on the mound, allowing at least one earned run in three of the four innings he completed. It was his highest earned run total since August 10, and the first time he has not worked at least five innings in his last eight turns. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA against the Rays this season, including a complete game shutout on July 24. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (3-6, 2B), Carlos Gomez (3-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (7-22, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2, 2B), Tommy Pham (2-3, 2B, RBI), Jesus Sucre (2-5, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Jalen Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

CC Sabathia allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five across six innings in a win against Baltimore on Friday. The southpaw surrendered a two-run single in the fifth inning but exited the ballgame with a four-run lead after throwing 59 of 97 pitches for strikes (61% strike rate). Sabathia was coming off a seven-run, 2-1/3 inning outing — his shortest start of the season. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 135 strikeouts through 148 innings this season. Sabathia is 0-2 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-6, RBI), Matt Duffy (5-9, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (9-21, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Adam Moore (1-2)  

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite giving up three runs in six innings. He allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while fanning six. The right-hander gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on Rowdy Tellez’s two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. Glasnow notched his fourth quality start in five outings although he is 1-5 in his last six turns.

Lance Lynn didn’t factor into the decision on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) in five innings. He allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out four along the way. Lynn has worked either five or six innings and given up two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. He has done just enough to eat innings at the back end of New York’s rotation with questionable depth. In spite of a 4.80 ERA and 4.39 BB/9 on the season, he’s fanned 9.20 batters per nine across 153-2/3 innings. Lynn last faced the Rays on April 20, in a 6 IP/7 H/5 R/5 BB outing. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B), Tommy Pham (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-2, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3) 

Tampa Bay Rays 9/24/18 pregame notes, etc

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In spite of a quality start by Tyler Glasnow, the Rays bats couldn’t provide any run support on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tyler Glasnow provided a quality start, yet took the loss for the second straight time in Toronto, as the Blue Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays, 5-2, on Saturday afternoon. They look to bounce back and split the series with AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell on the mound.

The Rays got within a run in the seventh inning when Jesus Sucre delivered his first homer of the season, which followed a third-inning solo homer by Tommy Pham. Yet the bats went cold as they left a lot of chicken on the bone — going 0-5 wRISP.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need help from the Twins on Sunday, as they sit 7.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 8 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

Even if we win out, I don’t see Oakland losing six games anyway, Rays third baseman Matt Duffy said. I’ve been saying it for a while — we understand the situation.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (20-5, 1.97 ERA) will make his final road start of the season, pitching opposite of Ryan Borucki (4-4, 3.86 ERA).

Snell allowed one hit across five scoreless innings in a win over Texas on Tuesday, striking out five and walking two. Snell was stellar once again, earning his eighth consecutive win and his 20th win of his 2018 campaign. He became just the second Rays pitcher to tally 20 wins in a season (David Price won 20 games in 2012) and he’s the only pitcher thus far to reach the mark in the majors this season. Snell also became just the 12th pitcher this year to break the 200-strikeout threshold, doing so in only 169 innings pitched. The southpaw’s 1.97 ERA trails only Jacob deGrom (1.78) in the majors and his .179 batting average against leads all starting pitchers.

Snell told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s so serious about not wanting to hear, read or think about what he has done that when his mom started texting him links to stories and video clips after he won his 20th Tuesday, he blocked her on his phone. His own mom!

I don’t want to hear it, he said. I know I’m going to reply to my mom, so the only way I’m not is if I don’t see it. So I gave it a couple hours where I couldn’t see it, she had no clue, and then I unblocked her. Having to do that was funny in a way, and weird ’cause it was my mother, but I just don’t like hearing it.

Borucki threw eight scoreless innings on Monday, allowing three hits and one walk while striking out seven across eight innings. Borucki kept the Orioles off the board, eventually exiting the game after throwing 105 pitches (67 strikes, 64% K/BB). He’s been a reliable starter in 15 starts this season, owning a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 57 strikeouts across 84 innings. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits on two walks in his last start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI)

Rays 9/23/18 Starting Lineup

Smith RF
Pham LF
Duffy 3B
Cron DH
Wendle SS
Lowe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Bauers 1B
Sucre C
Snell LHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

Noteworthiness

— Per Topkin, OF Carlos Gomez said he had not heard anything yet from Major League Baseball officials after his Twitter rant and comments criticizing home-plate umpire Andy Fletcher stemming from a called third strike and ejection on Thursday. MLB tends to look closely at those situations, and a fine or suspension would seem possible. Gomez said he wasn’t worried and would appeal any disciplinary action.