Here we are, about a month into the season, and most of the everyday players in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup have racked up anywhere between 51 and 99 plate appearances. While it is easy to look at a particular player’s batting average and conclude that he is performing at a certain level, be that good or bad, only one statistic offers a valid measurement at this point in the season — strikeout rate (K%).
Allow me to expand on the subject.
Strikeout percentage is a statistic based on total plate appearances. It can be used to make inferences about a player based on a certain sample size — in this case 60 plate appearances, when strikeout percentage tends to stabilize. To put things in perspective, beyond the watermark of 60 plate appearances, it is unlikely that a player’s strikeout percentage is based solely on random variation.
It is, typically, the first statistic to be analyzed because of the incredibly small sample size needed to accrue information. Walk rate follows, stabilizing at 120 plate appearances, while home run rate stabilizes at 170 plate appearances — so on and so forth.
You can read an excellent article on statistics and sample size at Baseball Prospectus.
Note: The chart above is meant to be used as an estimate. League-average strikeout rates vary on a year-by-year basis.
The question begs, how are the everyday players on the Rays’ roster looking so far? Let’s take a look.
The great to average — Adeiny Hechavarria, Denard Span, Wilson Ramos, Jesus Sucre, Mallex Smith and Joey Wendle
At this point last season, Adeiny Hechavarria had performed to an 8.7% strikeout rate, although that was over a minuscule 46 plate appearances. That number seesawed every month throughout his injury plagued first half, then settled at 19.3% which is still pretty good. Fast forward to 2018, Hecahvarria has settled in at 15.0% strikeout rate and paired that with a 5.6% walk rate. Hechavarria is currently outperforming his career numbers, although not at unsustainable levels.
Denard Span has been pretty good for the Rays since coming over in the Evan Longoria trade. Span has come up big in some pretty important situations, and provided the young team with a veteran presence both in the clubhouse and in the dugout. True, his strikeout rate is higher than his career numbers by four points, however, I don’t think anyone would complain with a 15.8% strikeout rate and a 128 wRC+. Moreover, his discerning eye in the batters box has afforded him a 16.4% walk rate and a .357 wOBA.
Wilson Ramos, the Buffalo … What can you say about the .313 BA/.368 OBP/.525 SLG/.893 OPS/.385 wOBA slashing backstop that hasn’t already been said? Ramos has been a key figure in the Rays offense so far, and he’s outperforming both his career and projected numbers (as it relates to strikeout rate). If the Rays really and truly see themselves as contenders, the Buffalo will need to continue putting the ball in play and performing at productive levels.
While Jesus Sucre and Joey Wendle are performing around their career and projected numbers, Mallex Smith is outperforming both by four-to-five points. While the Rays could always use a healthy Kevin Kiermaier on the field, and rightly so, Smith has proven to be an apt replacement for the Outlaw — especially in the batter’s box.
The slightly below average to worrisome — Daniel Robertson, Matt Duffy, CJ Cron, Brad Miller, Johnny Field, Rob Refsnyder and Carlos Gomez
Though his 22.2% strikeout rate puts him in below average territory, albeit barely, Robertson is outperforming both his career (24.3%) and projected (27.0%) numbers. What’s more, D-Rob leads the team in walk rate (19.1%) and OBP at a healthy .447. A former Rays’ skipper famously said a walk is as good as a hit, and Robertson’s high OBP, low strikeout rate approach is working so far.
There is some concern with Matt Duffy, as he is performing well under his career strikeout rate, at 25.3%, and that rate has ballooned to +30% over the last 14 days. The contact hitter is coming off an injury plagued season, so perhaps his year off has made him a touch rusty? In all fairness, Duffy has been productive and has the eighth best OBP on the team at .313. Look for Duffy
I know I know, CJ Cron’s 25.6% strikeout rate is leaps and bounds higher than his predecessor, Corey Dickerson, and a few points higher than LoMo. However, we all know what happens when the league figures out that Dickerson likes to swing at junk outside of the zone — his strikeout rate will blossom. To his credit, Cron has performed to an 18% strikeout rate over the last 14 days, so he clearly is capable of lowering the overall figure. At this point in the season, Cron is outperforming LoMo overall — 0.4 WAR vs -0.2 WAR) — and I’ll gladly take the offset for a three point difference in strikeout rates.
Carlos Gomez has an unsightly 34.7% strikeout rate, although that is four points higher than his projected total, so, ideally, that will even out. Gomez has performed at his projected strikeout rate over the last 14 days, so there’s that. Look at the bright side: Curt Casali struck out a staggering 47.1% of the time at this point in 2016. Gomez has said on multiple occasions that he, historically, gets off to slow starts, however, his career numbers don’t bear that out. Gomez is what he is: a free swinger that will hit the ball hard when he makes contact, but whiffs hard when he doesn’t.
Conclusion
The team, as a whole, has posted a 22.6% strikeout rate, good for fifth best in the American League, and just .2 higher than league average. Compare that to 2017, when Tampa Bay ended the year with the highest strikeout rate in the American League. Sure, they’re hitting fewer home runs, but they are on pace to plate more runs if just slightly so. It all comes back to making consistent contact and mounting a respectable team OBP.
In the end, strikeout percentage (as with any other statistic) is fluid and can change for better or worse, and it can decrease when a batter makes the proper adjustments at the plate. Take former Ray Wil Myers for example. Myers lowered his below average 24.9 K% in 2014 to an average/above average 19.4% at this point in 2015 with the San Diego Padres. It will be interesting to see if the more concerning players can lower their strikeout rate, and if the others can maintain their current levels.