Here we are, almost a month into the season, and most of the everyday players in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup have racked up anywhere from 51 and 99 plate appearances. While it is easy to look at a particular player’s slash line and conclude that he is performing at a certain level, either good or bad, only one statistic offers a valid measurement at this point in the season — strikeout rate (K%).
Allow me to expand on the subject.
The strikeout rate is a statistic based on total plate appearances. It can be used to make inferences about a player based on sample size — in this case, 60 plate appearances when strikeout rates tend to stabilize. To put things in perspective, beyond the watermark of 60 plate appearances, it is unlikely that a player’s strikeout rate is based solely on random variation.
It is, typically, the first statistic to be analyzed because of the incredibly small sample size needed to accrue information. Walk rate follows, stabilizing at 120 plate appearances, while home run rate stabilizes at 170 plate appearances — so on and so forth.
You can read an excellent article on statistics and sample size at Baseball Prospectus.
Note: The chart above is meant to be used as an estimate. League-average strikeout rates vary on a year-by-year basis.
The question begs, how are the everyday players on the Rays’ roster looking so far? Let’s take a look.
The great to average — Tommy Pham and Yandy Diaz
Tommy Pham is outperforming his career numbers by 9% over 125 plate appearances this season, while also boasting a career-best 16.8% walk rate. Whether his 15.2% strikeout rate is sustainable over the long haul is unknown, although my gut tells me he will regress. By how much though fails to be seen.
At 114 plate appearances, Yandy Diaz is performing at a 17.5% strikeout rate which is slightly better than his career 17.9% K%. He has regressed nominally from last season, although he only saw 120 total plate appearances in 2018, so take that with a grain of salt. Besides having a pretty well-defined strike zone, his ISO has ballooned to .298. To put it bluntly, he doesn’t strike out often, and when he connects with the ball he barrels it up.
The slightly below average to worrisome — Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Daniel Robertson, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, and Brandon Lowe
Kevin Kiermaier was projected to improve on his 2018 strikeout rate, and he has done that so far, reducing his 24.8% K% last season by more than 3%. Kiermiaer still doesn’t walk a ton, but he’s striking out less and getting on base more often; reaching base at a .320 OBP clip.
Mike Zunino started the season slowly and has accrued an overall 25.7% strikeout rate, which is actually 8% better than his career numbers. Over the last 14 days, however, Zunino has really turned it on, slashing .375 BA/.400 OBP/.750 SLG/1.150 OPS with a 24% strikeout rate. He was projected to regress to a 34.9% K% this season, but that hasn’t borne out.
While Austin Meadows regressed from last season to now, it was by a whopping 1%. Still, Meadows was one of the most productive players on the team before he hit the IL, slashing .351 BA/.422 OBP/.676 SLG/1.098 OPS over 83 plate appearances. If strikeout rate regression makes Meadows a more productive player, I’ll take it.
Conclusion
The team, as a whole, has posted a 25.3% strikeout rate, good for sixth worst in all of baseball … yet roughly 4% higher than the league average. The team has the best run differential in baseball, not to mention an MLB best 19-9 record, so clearly they are doing something(s) right.
At the end of the day, strikeout percentage (as with any other statistic) is fluid and can change for better or worse — it can decrease when a batter makes the proper adjustments at the plate. Take former Ray Wil Myers for example. Myers lowered his below average 24.9 K% in 2014 to an average/above average 19.4% at this point in 2015 with the San Diego Padres. It will be interesting to see if the more concerning players — such as Daniel Robertson, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, and Brandon Lowe — can lower their strikeout rates and if the others can maintain their current levels.