If you believe in miracles, then you believe in the possibility that Tampa Bay has a chance of eking out a postseason birth — this despite entering the ceremonial second half of the season 20 games under .500. After all, the 1951 Giants entered play on August 11th 13.5 games back, then won 21-of-27 games in September to end the season with 98 wins. More recently, the 2011 Rays started the month of September nine games back, and after going 35-20 in August and September, they reached the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. In order for the team to become a postseason threat, they’ll have to play at least .723 baseball, consequently ending the season with an 86-76 record. However, there is currently zero indication of that special spark that we fans can hold onto until the final pitch is thrown on October 2.
Personally, I don’t believe in miracles, rather I believe you create your own destiny. As Joe Maddon once said, “If you take care of the seconds, the minutes and the hours, the days will take care of themselves.” Playing better baseball should be the objective from this point forward. If something comes of it, excellent. If not, at least we’ll be able to gauge the needs of the ball club going into the 2017 season.
Be that as it may, if the Rays hope to play competitive baseball again this season, Kevin Cash and the front office will have to make some drastic changes — be them personnel, performance, or positional.
Personnel
Tampa Bay’s active roster is largely composed of 4A players, sprinkled in with a fair number of regulars. And while injuries led to the inclusion of players like Jaff Decker and Mikie Mahtook, there is little to no reason for the likes of Desmond Jennings, Enny Romero, and Tim Beckham to clog up crucial active roster spots. Instead, option Beckham and Jennings back to Durham, thus opening spots for Taylor Motter and Nick Franklin, who is currently on the active roster because of an injury.
Even though Romero has the tools to be a dominant reliever, his ongoing struggle with command has made him a liability. Since he doesn’t have any remaining options, in order for him to get back to Triple-A — where he could work on his command — he’d have to be designated for assignment then clear waivers. It’s a risky venture, yet the only other options would be to throw him in lower leverage situations, or hope for the best.
It is logical to assume there is an increased likelihood that the front office will shift into seller mode with the trade deadline looming, with Jake Odorizzi and Steve Pearce being the most plausible targets. While Alex Cobb is expected to return around the deadline, should Odorizzi be moved significantly beforehand, expect to see Matt Andriese back in the starting rotation.
The expected returns of Kevin Kiermaier, Brad Boxberger and Chase Whitley should stabilize the shaky outfield and bullpen, and in an ideal world, reenergize the ball club at large.
Performance
Cash views two areas as the most damaging to the team — an overall decline in defense and the tendency for games to get away in the middle innings.
Jason Collette (Process Report) wrote about the defense (cough, or lack thereof) and the inability for the Rays to collect three outs cleanly, saying,
ESPN’s Mark Simon tweeted something out earlier today which showed the rates each team converted ground balls into outs. The league-wide average for that is 73.2%, but the Rays (before today’s loss to the Angels) were a league-worst 69.8%. That is not a nice rate. The surprising thing is, it is not that far off from the most recent performances although it is quite a drop-off from earlier seasons (data from TruMedia begins in 2009):
Prior to the season, a decision was made to add more offense and sacrifice defense. The team is more powerful, as exemplified by their 118 home runs (good for fourth in the AL). However, that sacrifice has made them defensively weak, especially Brad Miller* at shortstop.
Miller has been good in the batter’s box, collecting a .315 wOBA and a career best 14 homers. However, he’s struggled with footwork, range and throws, consequently posting an uninspiring -15 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -12.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Compare that to his predecessor, Asdrubal Cabrera, who has a -6 DRS and a -3.3 UZR, with similar offensive production to Miller.
The lack of solid defense forces whichever pitcher is on the mound to throw more pitches, thus allowing the opposition four or five outs to score more runs. Because the starters work more over a smaller number of innings, it also forces Cash to turn to a short-armed bullpen,.
Want to see a turn around in fortunes? The simple fix is two-fold. First, the team must play better baseball.
I don’t think it’s a lack of effort, Evan Longoria said after Sunday’s 4-0 loss to Boston. I don’t think it’s a lack of preparation. I don’t think it’s a lack of care. At times, it was sloppy play. And at times, we just didn’t play good enough.
Fair enough, Evan.
The team should reconsider who plays where as well.
Positional
Something should be done to get Miller off short, by any means necessary. Platoon him at first base and/or left-field? Sure, why not? His power numbers thus far — extrapolated over the context of a whole season — make him a bigger power threat than any other Rays first baseman in the last four years. He already has infielder hands and instincts, and the team will ultimately need a replacement for Logan Morrison, as he will be a free agent at the end of the season. Should Pearce be traded away, Corey Dickerson would likely shift to DH — opening up an outfield spot for Miller, who spent time in left field last season with the Seattle Mariners.
If you view the rest of this season as an audition for 2017, shifting Miller away form short would allow Taylor Motter or Daniel Robertson to prove their big league mettle. It too opens the door for Richie Shaffer in some capacity
Conclusion
I’ll be frank, the Rays are boring. Their play is listless and disorganized, and it shows all over the player’s faces. I honestly cannot remember the last time I didn’t want to leave a game early, or didn’t want to watch something more entertaining. It’s gotten so bad I’ve started paying closer attention to my favorite childhood team, the Chicago Cubs. Don’t get me wrong, win or lose, I love my small market ball club. Yet the fact remains that you lose 22-of-25 games, baseball ceases to be fun. In the end a few tweaks here or there could make baseball fun again. Who knows, a few tweaks could make the Rays next great improbable miracle team, or at least be used as a performance evaluator for the 2017 season.
*In his critique of the Rays defense, Collette had some choice words for Brad Miller. I used his format and updated the numbers.