Rays 8/11/15 Starting Lineup
Jaso DH
Sizemore LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Nava RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Ramirez RHP
…On Tomorrow’s Starter, Jake Odorizzi
Watch any gamecast when Jake Odorizzi is on the mound, and you’ll hear BA say one of two things (if not both); Odorizzi throws the ball to all quadrants of the zone, and he isn’t afraid to use his excellent split-change effectively. In short, Jake has become a pitching juggernaut for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Romano (Beyond the Box Score) has also taken notice of Jake, writing that Odorizzi may have found the right recipe for success. His strikeouts have declined, as have the walks. Fewer balls have gone for hits, and for home runs, while a spike in ground balls have coincided with a drop in fly balls and pop-ups.
His whiff and caught looking rates haven’t decreased, rather Odorizzi has forced batters to put the ball in play more often. Romano found that the 2014 version of Odorizzi threw a fair amount of strikes, at 63.8%; however, he didn’t allow hitters to put the ball in play, with the third-lowest in play-strike rate (24.9%) in the American League. Consequently, he found himself in a lot of deep counts, leading the league in pitches per plate appearance. As research will tell you, pitchers who don’t pound the strike zone and/or pitch to contact will generally run mediocre walk rates, in addition to higher strikeout rates.
Because of it, the righty has worked more effciently while also lowering his levels of free passes and punchouts. Odorizzi’s strike rate has risen to 64.7%, while his in-play strike rate has come all the way up to 29.0%. Not only has the type of Odorizzi’s batted balls shifted, the volume has increased, thus affecting his strikeouts and walks.
From there, Romano went on to discuss Odorizzi’s repotoire, finding that while his four-seamer still occupies the largest spot in Odorizzi’s arsenal, the splitter has spiked to nearly its level. The cutter, too, has become a primary pitch, as has (to a lesser extent) the sinker, while the slider has nearly disappeared.
The righty has swapped out a good pitch for an elite one — the split-change, which gave him most of his success in 2014, putting up a 68.2% strike rate, 20.0% whiff rate, and — most importantly, given what we’ve established earlier — a 21.5% in-play rate.
In Year Two of its existence, the splitter has gone from good to great. Packing on a half a mile-per-hour of velocity (from 84.8 to 85.5) and some extra horizontal movement (from 4.7 inches to 5.0) has helped it generate weaker contact, as it’s sustained its output with strikes, swinging strikes, and balls in play. Its 2015 BABIP of .267 and home run rate of 0.4% have made it worth three runs above average, compared to 2.7 runs below average last season. That’s, if I may, pretty damn good!
I haven’t done Romano justice by just summarizing his excellent piece. Do yourself a favor and head to Beyond the Boxscore to read the article in its entirety (linked above).
Noteworthiness
— Both Casali and Kiermaier are back in the lineup, hitting eighth and ninth respectively. Kiermaier said his injured right thumb is progressing. He put extra padding around it, and will use a thinner handled bat tonight, saying, “It’s pain toleration at this point.”
— Desmond Jennings (knee) will continue his rehab assignment with the Class-A Stone Crabs tonight, playing nine innings in left-field. He is slated for two games with the Stone Crabs, then will be activated from the DL.
— Haven’t read our Rays/Braves series preview? Change that here and now!