Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Ouch!

Jeremy Hellickson gave up four runs on seven hits and two walks in 4-1/3 innings of work.
Jeremy Hellickson gave up four runs on seven hits and two walks, in 4-1/3 innings of work Wednesday night.

When things are rolling well, it becomes an expectation that they will continue to do so. Case in point, the Rays starting pitching over the last month and a half. Boy, does the hangover feel extra crappy when things don’t go your way. Case in point, Jeremy Hellickson’s 4.1 IP/7 H/4 ER/2 BB/3 K outing last night. The Rays fell flat on their faces, losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks by a score of 7-0 in front of 25,000+ fans.

Helly didn’t resemble the Rays dependable RHP that’s won his previous six starts. Rather, he had more in common with The Nibbler who hadn’t reared his ugly head in some time. To add insult to injury, Kyle Farnsworth (who couldn’t even record an out in the seventh inning…don’t act surprised) and Jamey Wright gave up a combined two runs on four hits in the seventh and eighth innings, while Cesar Ramos gave up a 422 foot solo-shot to Paul Goldschmidt in the ninth, sealing the Rays fate.

And though they recorded just three hits on the night, the Rays had their chances to score. However, you get blanked when you leave nine men on the bags, while going 0-6 wRISP. The most gut wrenching moment of the night came with the bases juiced one out into the seventh inning. The Rays trailed 5-0 at the time, and a big hit could have put them back in the ballgame. But Desmond Jennings struck out swinging, and Evan Longoria struck out looking to end the threat.

About that at-bat…

Heath Bell started the frustrating at-bat with a pair of  high-and-on-the-outside-corner fastballs, for strikes one and two. He, predictably, threw a low and inside breaking pitch to change Longoria’s eye level. Finally, Bell came back with a high-and-on-the-outside-corner breaking pitch — the strike that sealed Longo’s fate. Bell’s sequence of pitches twas predictable at best, and I have no clue how he — the face of the franchise — couldn’t see it coming.

The Rays have an off-day ahead of a three game series against the St. Petersburg…urm, San Franciso Giants. Despite the loss, the Rays finished the month of July with their best record ever at 21-5, the third best July record in the history of baseball.

Noteworthiness

  • Not everything was terrible last night. Ben Zobrist continued to hit the ball hard, going 2-for-4 with a double, and Alex Torres lowered his ERA to 0.27 after posting a 1.2 IP/1 H/2 K outing, throwing 19 pitches total (12 for strikes).
  • Dave and Andy (on the radio side) interviewed Rays VP Matt Silverman. He mentioned that we can expect more family friendly ticket options down the stretch. Silverman also acknowledged that building a fan base is a relatively arduous and slow task. Ahem, just sayin’.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Robo Posts His First Complete Game in Three Years

Roberto Hernandez, right, gets a hug from rookie Chris Archer after pitching his first complete game since September 2010. (James BOorchuck/Tampa Bay Times)
Roberto Hernandez, right, gets a hug from rookie Chris Archer after pitching his first complete game since September 2010. (James BOorchuck/Tampa Bay Times)

Going into last night’s game, Roberto Hernandez hadn’t put together a complete game — or a shutout — since 2010. Two hours and thirty-four minutes *later, Hernandez walked off the mound with his eighth career complete game — having taken a shutout two-outs into the ninth inning. Tampa Bay was able to maintain its status as the top team in the AL East, after Hernandez and the Rays took the first game of a two-game set against the Diamondbacks by a score of 5-2.

So how did Hernandez put together the Rays seventh complete game — spread out among four different starters — in the last 19 games? It’s simple, really. He kept the ball down. As BA pointed out during the broadcast, Hernandez’s pitches have a lot of life when he keeps them down in the zone.

Woo-doggy, look at the cluster of pitches down in the zone. (Strike-zone plot courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Woo-doggy, look at the cluster of pitches down in the zone. (Strike-zone plot courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Hernandez alternated his pitches — throwing sinkers primarily, then change-ups at the bottom of the zone once he got ahead. Walking that fine line between forcing the Diamondbacks to pound the ball into the turf, and posting more than a handful of strikeouts, he induced 15 easy ground balls for the Rays defense, while striking out six. It bears mentioning, like Price and Archer before him, Robo was insanely efficient, throwing 15 pitches in a single inning only once.

In the end, Hernandez gave up only five hits and one walk, all on 107 pitches (70 for strikes, 65% K/BB). The only runs he gave up came with two-outs in the bottom of the ninth, on an Eric Chavez home run that hit off the foul pole in right-field. If Robo did anything last night, it’s prove that he won’t be sent to the bullpen quietly.

On the offensive end of things, the Rays swarmed Ian Kennedy in the bottom of the first inning, tagging him for a pair of runs. Desmond Jennings got the ball rolling early, sending a changeup near the top of the zone into left-cetner field. Jennings legged it out, turning a single into double and quickly getting into scoring position. Ben Zobrist plated the first run of the game on the very next pitch, sending an RBI single into right field. Evan Longoria was next, however he grounded into a fielder’s choice and replaced Zobrist at first. But James Loney came through, doubling to deep to right-center, and driving in Longoria who beat out a play at the plate. As Ian Malinowski of DRaysBay noted, “A good throw and a good relay nearly nabbed Longo at the plate, but his slide got his feet over the plate before Wil Nieves’s tag caught his body.”

Tampa Bay was relatively quiet until the fourth inning when Yunel Escobar gave the Rays a 3-0 lead on a solo shot to right-field. The Rays were able to hit the ball hard off Ian Kennedy, however the Diamondbacks fielders were able to chase down those potential hits (two of which could have been homers), and converted them into outs.

In the top of the sixth inning, Kennedy was replaced with Will Harris who promptly walked Matt Joyce. With the runner in motion and Aaron Hill following him to bag to receive the throw, Jose Molina slapped a base-hit right where Hill had been, moving Joyce to third base with no outs. Yunel Escobar drove in his second run of the night — and the fourth run overall — on a sac-fly to right-field, just deep enough to bring Joyce home. The Rays tagged on one more run in the eighth inning, when Zobrist doubled in Molina from third.

The New What Next

Jeremy Hellickson will toe the rubber against Wade Miley and the D’Backs in this, the final game of a two-game set. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 7/31/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Longoria DH
Myers RF
Zobrist 2B
Rodriguez 1B
Roberts 3B
Escobar SS
Lobaton C
Fuld LF
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays have announced that Matt Moore is headed to DL with elbow soreness, and he’s projected to miss only one start thanks to an August filled with off-days. Ryan Roberts has been added to the roster, and the Rays will shift to a four man rotation for the time being.
  • In better news, Wil Myers leads the majors in hitting since the All-Star Break with a .457 batting average.
  • Brandon Gomes will continue his rehab stint in Triple-A Durham on Thursday.
  • It bears mentioning, only one starter in the active starting rotation rotation (Hellickson) has not thrown a complete game this month. No other team in baseball has more than two pitchers with a complete game.

*That includes a 20-minute delay of play due to a lightning strike which knocked out the power at the Trop. We’ve had some wild weather in the area the last few months, and last night was no different. Say what you will about Tropicana Field. However, be grateful for the dome. 

In Defense of Something

photo4-1024x774
A meager 12,777 fans watched a 9-1 Rays (over a 10-game stretch) beat the Twins by a score of 4-1 on July 9th.

We posted a piece titled In Defense of the Trop back on July 10th. Penned by a relative newcomer to the area, Ryan posits that many pathologically spend more time focusing on the superficial aspects stopping them from attending Rays games on a semi-regular basis, than actually attending the games themselves. In light of recent events, namely news that the City of St. Pete and the Rays are on a path — the right one or otherwise — to dealing with the Stadium Saga, I thought revisiting the topic might be apropos.

Let me start by saying that I am a proponent of a new facility; a fact that longtime X-Rays Spex (and Raysbaseball.co) followers can attest to. My concerns about a new stadium have always been two-fold: A. How would a new ballpark be financed? B. Where would it be built?

As it relates to question A, I am highly doubtful that Sternberg and Co. will be able to put together a wool over the eyes Marlins Ballparklike deal. Miami’s citizenry will be paying between $600 MM and $1 BB over the span of a 30-year mortgage, and that’s — if I may be frank — fucked. Simply put, the Rays organization will have to finance the bulk of a new facility… That is unless all of the forces that be, can put together some sort of package that would take the brunt of culpability away from the taxpayers.

The question then begs: Where would it be built? To be fair to all the fans in the area, there is no right place. Fans from surrounding areas like Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota would be disenfranchised if it was built in downtown Tampa. And fans from Hillsborough will continue their petulant whining if it was built on the Trop’s remaining 84-acres, or in the Carillon area. It’s funny, the argument surrounding the building of a new facility is largely predicated on those not willing to make the 30-45 driving sacrifice to support the team in the present tense. Which brings up another point, the attendance in the here and now.

The tired reasons (traffic, parking, I don’t like the color of the stadium, blahblahblah) fans aren’t coming out to games are ridiculous at best. Yes, I get it: The Trop doesn’t have the best sight-lines, the amenities aren’t that of New Yankee Stadium, and the seats aren’t angled toward the playing field in certain spots. However, I’d argue that Wrigley, Fenway, and Dodger stadium (to a lesser extent now) do not have the three attributes mentioned above either, yet you don’t really hear the chirping of fans or figureheads like Dick Vitale.

Chirp chirp, Dickie V.
Chirp chirp, Dickie V.

Fans attend games at Wrigley, Fenway, and Dodger Stadium because they are fans of the Cubs, Sox, and Dodgers first and foremost. They don’t drive 30-45 minutes on a regular basis to get to the ballpark, because their beloved facilities have the most luxurious of amenities. Rather, they attend the games because they are supportive of their team. To implicate a facility as the root cause for the lack of attendance is asinine at best. That fans do not attend games at the Trop on a regular basis, should be a glaring indicator of the fickle and disingenuous nature of the Rays fan base.

Again, I agree that the Rays deserve better. However, if the argument that a new stadium is a cure-all for a lagging attendance in the long-term — *which it isn’t — what is going to be done to fix attendance in the here and now? After all, even if the ball got rolling on a new stadium today, there would still be a window of three or more years between the ground breaking and opening day.

*Drops in attendance (on average) in new(er) facilities

New Yankees Stadium -3,736
Target Field -2,891
Miller Park -3,651
Citi Field -974
Marlins Park -9,587

The New What Next: Enter the Diamondbacks

Jose Molina ends the eighth inning by tagging out Daniel Nava, who challenged Sam Fuld’s arm after a flyout to left-center. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)
Jose Molina ends the eighth inning by tagging out Daniel Nava, who challenged Sam Fuld’s arm after a flyout to left-center. Of the play, Dick Vitale (via Twitter) was quoted as saying, “Red sox fans whining about the lucky play at the plate…. If it doesn’t rain price goes nine and 2 hits your bosox.” Well played, Dickie V. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

The Rays return home in first place, after beating the Red Sox in a dramatic 2-1 victory Monday night. If I may, I’m going to take care of a little house cleaning before I get into the series preview.

David Price is now 6-1 following his stint on the DL, after putting together a 7-1/3 inning two-hit, one run, ball game. Both Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney made the game interesting in relief of Price — both allowing runners to reach second and third, though they didn’t relinquish the tying or winning runs.

There was a contentious play in the eighth inning that has the Massholes up in arms. David Price started the inning by striking out Jonny Gomes. Joe Maddon didn’t like what he saw out of Price who took the mound after a 39-minute rain delay, and quickly pulled him in favor of the typically dependable Joel Peralta. However, dependability went by the wayside on this fine evening after Peralta gave up back-to-back doubles. Thankfully horrible base running and Sam Fuld would preserve the one run lead. First, Daniel Nava, errantly, didn’t attempt to score on Steven Drew’s double. Then Fuld gunned Drew down at the plate as he attempted to tag-up on a sac-fly.

Home plate umpire Jerry Meals admitted after watching the replay he was wrong: “What I saw was: Molina blocked the plate and Nava’s foot lifted. But in the replays, you could clearly see Nava’s foot got under for a split second and then lifted, so I was wrong on my decision. From the angle I had, I did not see his foot get under Molina’s shin guard.” But that’s neither here or now.

Offensively speaking, Tampa Bay was dominated by Doubront and company. The Rays were able to eke out two runs, thanks to a Sean Rodriguez two-out RBI single (that he stretched into a double), and a Wil Myers RBI base-hit. The Rays SHOULD have done more at the plate though; they ultimately went 2-10 wRISP while stranding 10 men on the bags.

Back to interleague play. The second place Diamondbacks will come into the Trop Tuesday for a two game set against the Rays. Arizona took two out of three from Tampa Bay the last time the two teams met in 2010, though the Rays lead the series, 8-4 overall and 4-2 at the Trop. The Diamondbacks have stumbled to a 4-6 record following the All-Star break, while dropping two-and-a-half games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Rays, on the other hand, are coming off a franchise best 8-2 post All-Star Break road trip, winning 22 of their last 26.

The Diamondbacks offensive leader — Paul Goldschmidt (.303 BA/.392 OBP/.545 OPS, 23 HR, 85 RBI) — has cooled off significantly, going 1-18 at the plate leading into this series. Meanwhile, Wil Myers has gone 19-for-41 with four homers and 12 RBIs during a 10-game hitting streak, and Evan Longoria has snapped out of a slump by hitting safely in 11 consecutive games.

Rays and Diamondback series starters.
Rays and Diamondback series starters.
Rays and Diamondbacks offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Diamondbacks offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
By the numbers-1
Rays and Diamondbacks, by the numbers.

Ian Kennedy: Per Rotowire, “Kennedy gave up six earned runs on six hits over five innings Wednesday against the Cubs.” Kennedy has gone nine starts without a victory, receiving only one run (or fewer) of support in four of them. He’s faced the Rays once since 2008, and is 1-3 lifetime against the Rays with a 6.66 ERA. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (1-1, 2 BB), Matt Joyce (1-2, BB), James Loney (6-13, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB).

Wade Miley: Per Rotowire, “Miley said Friday that his leg is fine and won’t prevent him from making his next start, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.” On the subject of Wade Miley, the writers at 60 ft. 6 in note, “At first glance, Miley looks terribly average. His fastball sits around 89-92 mph and his secondary offerings don’t appear to be plus pitches. Miley works in plenty of change-ups that routinely miss the strike zone. Wade also spins a slider that has improved dramatically in 2012, and rare curve. Miley’s pitching breakout: fastball (89-93), change-up (79-82), slider (81-85), curve.

Noteworthiness

  • Jason Kubel is 14-for-38 against Roberto Hernandez with three homers and 11 RBI.
  • RHPR Brad Ziegler allowed only one unearned run in his last nine outings while converting five of five save opportunities.
  • Marc Topkin notes, “The D’backs want to play a gritty style under manager Kirk Gibson and can resemble the Rays in terms of versatility. They don’t hit many homers and don’t run much but do put a lot of balls in play.”
  • If I may hit the Red Sox below the belt a little, who’d have guessed that there would be another rain delay in that hell-hole of a stadium? Could someone please remind Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe and ESPN, that this is why we have a roof over our facility?! For what it’s worth, the Rays have had two games rained out in Boston this season, and now both makeups have had rain delays.
  • Furthermore, Price is the first starting pitcher to beat Red Sox at Fenway Park twice in a span of 5 days since Rip Collins (St. Louis Browns) in 1931.
  • Wil, don’t get me wrong, we love you. However, you live near the Trop in St. Petersburg, not Tampa. Is it really that hard to type St. Pete or Tampa Bay? C’mon braah!

 

Rays Finalize Deal With Jesse Crain

Jesse Crain delivers a pitch, ironically, against the Tampa Bay Rays. (Photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports)
Jesse Crain delivers a pitch, ironically, against the Tampa Bay Rays. (Photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports)

The Rays made it official this afternoon, they’ve finalized a deal with the White Sox for 32 year-old RHP All-Star reliever Jesse Crain. Tampa Bay traded future considerations for Crain, yet the terms of the contract are uncertain. It can be assumed, however, that the cost will likely to be low since he is in the final year of his contract.

The White Sox initially placed Crain on the 15-day DL back on July 3rd (retroactive to June 30), and he is eligible to be activated now. Nevertheless, the Rays have placed him on 15-day DL for the time being. The Rays made room on the 40-man roster by shifting Brandon Gomes to 60-day DL, though he is close to being reinstated.

Crain has a career 45-30 record and 3.05 ERA with the Twins and the White Sox, and his 2.10 ERA since joining Sox in 2011 is the eighth best in majors. Crain was having an excellent season prior to going on the DL, posting an 11.29 K/9 while only walking 2.70 batters per nine.

This acquisition is intriguing. If he is healthy, he’d immediately slide into the back of the Rays bullpen, alleviating the pressure on Joel Peralta.

Per Marc Topkin, Andrew Friedman said he would expect the compensation for Crain to finalized after season. Topkin went on to note that it’s “too early to speculate” exactly when Crain will be ready to pitch, but he (Friedman) has extreme confidence in the medical staff to get him back. It will be interesting to see how the Rays fit Crain on the 25-man roster at the point of his reactivation.

Daniel Russell of DRaysBay asserts that,

The return of Alex Cobb will force one pitcher off of the 25-man roster, and any pitcher with an option available (Jake McGee, Alex Torres, Chris Archer) is projected to remain with the team. One player has to go. Why not get something in return before he hits waivers?

The Rays could potentially deal one of three pitchers in order to make room for Crain on the 25-man roster: Cesar Ramos, Jamey Wright, and Kyle Farnsworth.

Of those three players, Russell notes,

  • LHRP Cesar Ramos is out of options, and projects to have his role of longman consumed by Roberto Hernandez for the rest of this season. He is under team control until 2017. Cesar Ramos has had terrible luck. His BABIP has jumped from .221 to .326 this season, which may be impacting his low groundball numbers (down 13.4% from last season’s 30 innings) and his 4.50 ERA. His FIP is down at 3.14 and he’s walking a career low 6.6%. He’s still able to carry a load when not performing as a LOOGY; Ramos has 11 appearances of 2.0+ innings this season.
  • RHRP Jamey Wright is the resident groundball specialist who can eat innings as necessary, but has not lived up to his groundball percentages (mid 50% range, not the 60%+ expected). He is a free agent next year. As I mentioned above, Jamey Wright’s groundball numbers have not lived up to the hype (down 13.3% from last season), even though his ability to go multiple innings has been a pleasant surprise (10 games longer than one full inning, including two 3.0 IP performances). He has 44.1 innings on the season thus far, and has actually improved his totals for walks, hits, and earned runs compared to last year. He’s not the same, but he’s not bad either.
  • RHRP Kyle Farnsworth has the potential of being a high leverage arm, but seems to get himself into trouble on the mound and has been the lease effective pitcher in the ‘pen; also a free agent next year. Kyle Farnsworth is the real glaring issue. He’s been trusted with only 28 innings over 35 games thus far, with seven walks and only 18 strikeouts. He owns a 5.14 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 45% ground ball rate, and 70% LOB. Not horrible for your worst guy, but that doesn’t mean the Rays can’t improve from those numbers.

In my opinion, Farnsworth seems to be the most expendable player in the bullpen. As Russell noted above, he’s a free agent at the end of the season and Tampa Bay hasn’t trusted him with a good number of innings this year — presumably as a result of the outcome of his outings. Furthermore, at $1.25 MM the Rays wouldn’t be losing much money, while they’d be be able to do away with an injury prone player.

Then the question begs, how exactly can they part ways with Farnsworth? What’s more, how are they going to make room for Cobb when he returns? Questions for another day, I suppose.