X-Rays Spex – Page 495 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

Sayonara Off-Season, Hello Spring Training; Part Two

A man and his RV. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Allow me to pick up where I left off yesterday. If you need a quick primer, I received an interesting email from a fellow blogger the other day. His challenge, if I choose to accept it: answer six simple questions about the state of the Rays going into Spring Training and the 2014 season. Below are my thoughts on the questions left unanswered in my previous piece.

Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?

Prior to the re-signing of Grant Balfour, and the news Jeremy Hellickson would be out until mid-May, it was easy to foresee battles between Heath Bell and Juan Carlos Oviedo for the closer spot, as well as Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi for the fifth starter spot. Since Balfour was named as the closer, and one would assume Odorizzi has the fifth starter spot while Helly is on the mend, the focus now turns to who will get a bench/depth spot on the roster, who will fill the supporting roles in the ‘pen, and what to do with Hellickson once he returns.

Tampa Bay lost bench depth this off-season. First, they chose not to re-sign Kelly Johnson, then they non-tendered Sam Fuld, leaving open a couple of spots on the opening day roster. Granted, in the scheme of things, neither Johnson nor Fuld represented consistent productivity last season. What they lacked at the plate however, they made up for in the field. Fuld was a capable outfielder, while Johnson was flexible, playing multiple positions. Expect Maddon and Co. to seek players that exhibit the qualities both Fuld and Johnson displayed, while also adding some umph at the plate. The recently acquired Logan Forsythe, veteran utility-man Jayson Nix, Vince Belnome, OF Brandon Guyer, utility-man Sean Rodriguez, and utility man Wilson Betemit will battle it out for one of these coveted spots on the bench. A cautionary tale for Sean Rodriguez: He needs to have a good spring. After all, it’s not a stretch to imagine his head being on the chopping block.

The Rays added a significant amount of pitching depth, both in the last 24-hours and the off-season in general. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how they fit those pieces into the ‘pen. What do we know so far? The back end guys — Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, and Grant Balfour — are already set. It’s could also be assumed that Juan Carlos Oviedo, Heath Bell, Cesar Ramos, and Brandon Gomes will find themselves on the opening day roster. The need for an Alex Torres-like reliever is ever present. As I mentioned back in January, Brandon Boxberger could fill that position. The Rays also need a ground-ball specialist. The still warm acquisition of Erik Bedard proves intriguing. His 36.4% ground-ball rate is serviceable. Then again, Matt Andriese owns a 55% ground-ball rate. That he has gone 26-16 with a 3.18 ERA (322.1-IP, 114-ER) and 278 strikeouts to 77 walks over the span of three minor league seasons is nothing to scoff at.

What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?

Simply put, Jake Odorizzi. Enny Romero could make a dent in things as well. In my opinion, it all depends on two things:

What happens when Hellickson returns.
Whether the rest of the rotation can stay healthy.

What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?

The Rays have averaged 91 wins per season since 2008, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t exceed the 90-win plateau in 2014. The pitching staff is strong, the infielders are the same, they acquired a strong catcher in Ryan Hanigan, and the bats in the lineup are solid — as long as Myers, Longo, Zobrist, Escobar, and DeJesus can maintain consistency and productivity.

The question then becomes, how do the other teams fare in the AL East? The Yankees spent a royal boat-load of money in the off-season, spending $503MM on acquisitions. But as Joe Giglio wrote in a piece for Bleacher Report,

Unfortunately for their fans, it’s hard to take an honest look at the roster and peg them for 90-plus wins right now. If Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively, perform up to Cy Young and MVP standards, a different picture could emerge by October. For now, the team is only slightly better than the group that won 85 games last season.

The other teams in the AL East had fairly quiet off-seasons — including the World Series champs. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays have have deep, powerful lineups. Yet, both teams are lacking a high impact starter or two. Then there’s the Red Sox — a team that retained the core nucleus of their 97 win squad. The question begs, should we expect another dominant season, or will we see a step back from excellence? I think we can expect another competitive season from those mouth breathers in Boston. However, it’s going to be a lot closer of a race in 2014. My prediction: the Rays and Red Sox* at the top of the AL East for the second consecutive season.

Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Without a doubt, Ben Zobrist. Alex Cobb, Yunel Escobar, and James Loney are run a very close second.

Noteworthiness

A series of relevant Marc Topkin tweets, in screen shot form:

*In no specific order.

Sayonara Off-Season, Hello Spring Training; Part One

Rays pitchers and catchers will report to Port Charlotte on Valentine's Day -- the greatest gift Cupid could ever give us! — Tampa Bay Rays pitchers and catchers reported to Port Charlotte on Valentine’s Day — the greatest gift Cupid could ever give us! (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

It’s been a long off-season — too long, if you ask me. I wouldn’t go as far as to say baseball defines who I am. However, I do love baseball and I feel a bit empty when I don’t have it in my life. And though I’ve been consumed by other things in the interim — things that deserved my whole, undivided attention — there’s a little piece of me that springs to life at this point of the year. Friends, at long last, the Rays’ pitchers and catchers have reported to Port Charlotte, and I couldn’t be more excited!

I’ve spent much the Hot-Stove period writing about the Rays’ acquisitions and moves, and now it’s time to put the proverbial rubber to the road. I received an interesting email from a fellow blogger the other day. His challenge, if I choose to accept it: answer six simple questions about the state of the Rays going into Spring Training and the 2014 season.

How would you grade the off-season?
What does Wil Myers do for an encore?
Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?
What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?
Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Challenge accepted! A note before I get started, it may be too early to make any accurate predictions for the upcoming season. With this in mind, I’ll be answering the same six questions in a little more than a month. The aforementioned blogger will be posting my responses on his site as well. If anything, it’ll be interesting to see how things progress in Port Charlotte, leading up to opening day.

Since this is a fairly expansive topic, I’ll be splitting it into two different pieces.

How would you grade the off-season?

If you asked me this question during the 2013 Winter Meetings, I’m not certain I would have graded the Rays favorably. After all, there were lingering concerns over David Price’s status with Tampa Bay, and the Rays hadn’t made any significant moves to fill holes in the bullpen and the right-hand side of the infield. Sure, Friedman and company made a good move by acquiring Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan. Yet low we sat facing the prospect of having a rent-a-player at first, and no official closer. My how things have changed.

Since the 2013 Winter Meetings, the Rays locked James Loney into a three-year contract, signed utility infielder Jayson Nix to a minor league contract, avoided another round arbitration hearings with seven players (including David Price), acquired five players from the Padres — including Brad Boxberger and Logan Forsythe — in a seven player trade, and brought Grant Balfour back home to the other Bay Area. In short, the Rays went from mediocrity to pretty damn good, as it relates to their off-season moves.

Sure, the Rays didn’t sign a designated hitter. However, allow me to remind you that their last productive DH was Johnny Damon, who slashed .261 BA/.326 OBP/.418/.744 OPS in 2011. He wasn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination, however, he didn’t fit the mold of what the Rays were looking out of that position. And lest we forget those who came before and after Damon — Pat Burrell and Luke Scott? Need I really say anything about them? The absence of an official DH gives the Rays flexibility. They’ll be able to give Evan Longoria, Wil Myers, Matt Joyce, David DeJesus and Ben Zobrist some time off their feet, while keeping their productive bats in the lineup on a fairly regular basis.

What does Wil Myers do for an encore?

Oh Wil “AL Rookie of the Year” Myers… The player who out performed the ballyhooed Yasiel Puig (considering a shorter stint in the majors in 2013) with half the fanfare, the player whose first major league homer was a grand slam in Yankee Stadium, and the player whose embarrassing error gave the Red Sox a decided advantage in game one of the 2013 ALDS — what can we expect out of you this year? Warts and all, Myers met most people’s expectations in 2013. With him in the lineup, the Rays were able to push their way into the postseason following a lackluster August.

Most projection sites find Myers regressing in 2014, presumably due to his hard time in making adjustments at the plate — especially on pitches on the outside corner, and inside (and lower) third of the plate.

However, those sites also project that Myers will be more patient at the plate. They find his K% falling anywhere from 1% to 2%, with an increase in his BB%. Regression happens, it’s inevitable. I don’t see him posting the .293 BA/.354 OBP/.478 SLG/.832 OPS he had the year prior. However, I don’t see him regressing to the .264 BA/.334 OPS/.453 SLG/.787 OPS hitter Steamer projects he’ll be. Over the span of his professional career, Myers has averaged somewhere in the ballpark of a .304 batting average, while hitting under .260 only once — in 2011 with the Royals Double-A affiliate, in 416 plate appearances. Unless there is a drastic change in his approach, or he’s unable to adjust to the pitchers — who will, undoubtedly, adjust to him — I really don’t see a reason for the drastic regression in production many have projected. Would I be content with a .286 BA/+.320 OBP/+.800 OPS/+25 HR slash line? Absolutely!

To be continued tomorrow…

Noteworthiness

Per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, “The Rays have agreed to a minor league contract and an invitation to big league Spring Training with left-hander Erik Bedard, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted last night that the two were likely to strike such a deal, and MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo first connected the two sides on Wednesday. Bedard is a client of Relativity Baseball. The 34-year-old Bedard spent the 2013 campaign with the Astros, posting a 4.59 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate in 151 innings as both a starter and reliever. Bedard has always been injury prone, but until the past two seasons, he had always been effective when on the active roster. From 2006-11, Bedard posted a 3.44 ERA and whiffed 679 batters against 245 walks in 671 1/3 innings. Since that time, however, he’s turned in just a 4.78 ERA in 276 2/3 innings between Pittsburgh and Houston.”

X-Rays Spex and Star Booty Present: A Raymones Shirt Release Party!

The folks at Star Booty (in St. Pete) and X-Rays Spex have paired together for a special “Raymones” shirt release party/open house on Saturday, March 1st from 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM, at Star Booty — 681 Central Avenue, in the Sunshine City.

See, we’d like to think of things as more than just another t-shirt. In fact, we’d love to say thank you in person! If you pre-ordered a shirt or shirts, you’ll be able to pick it/them up at the open house. Fret not, we’ll have a few available for sale if you never got a chance to order one.

We’ll also have some adult beverages available, for those of you that want to hang around for a few minutes and talk all things Tampa Bay Rays, and music.

More information on this is to come. Until then, start to spread the word – we’d love to see each and every one of you!

Hot-Stove: Helly Expected to Miss 6-to-8 Weeks of the Season, Rays Sign Three to Minor League Contracts

Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks of the 2014 baseball season.

Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow last week and is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late May, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

The 26-year-old struggled through his worst season in 2013, posting a career-high 5.17 ERA and yielding a .274 OBA/.325 OBP/.450 SLG/.775 OPS line to opposing hitters. Hellickson, the Rays and agent Scott Boras all said that there were no physical ailments following the season, according to Topkin, but something flared up in his elbow when Hellickson began throwing in late January.

“The Rays have the rotation depth to overcome an injury to Hellickson, as Jake Odorizzi now seems likely to step into the rotation alongside David Price, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore and Chris Archer,” writes MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams. He went on to write,

“It already appeared likely that the Rays would hang onto Price for at least one more season (contrary to what many pundits believed earlier this winter), but the loss of Hellickson may further strengthen that standpoint. The Rays have added payroll this offseason by re-signing James Loney to a three-year deal, signing Grant Balfour and acquiring Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan (and extending the latter), so it seems unlikely that they’d shift from those win-now moves by dealing Price — especially with depleted rotation depth. As Topkin notes, Enny Romero and Alex Colome represent additional rotation options, but Colome himself is recovering from an injury.”

It’s doubtful the Rays will look to the free agent or trade market to add another starting option. With a projected payroll of roughly $76MM, including league minimum players, adding significant dollars seems unlikely. Adding a veteran with starting experience on a minor league deal could make some sense.

In other Hot-Stove news, Tampa Bay re-signed RHPR Juan Sandoval (who is blind in one eye), while also signing CF Jeremy Moore and utility man Wilson Betemit to minor league deals. All three deals include Spring Training invites, pushing the number of players attending camp to 60+ plus as of now.

Betemit spent the last two seasons in Baltimore, but was sidelined for most of 2013 with a knee injury. In 2012, Betemit posted a .261 BA/.322 OBP/.422 SLG/.744 OPS slash line in 102 games with the Orioles, primarily playing third base. Betemit is known as a decent utility man and a bat off of the bench with a serviceable glove. The 11-year veteran will be competing for a spot on the Rays’ bench.

Noteworthiness

We’d like to put together a top notch squad to make an X-Rays Spex podcast in 2014. Think baseball analysis with beer, sarcasm, and good music. Can you help? Get in touch here, or at: belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com.

Hot-Stove: The Big News About Grant Balfour, As A Series of Tweets

Welcome back, Grant! (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin)

Most of you are familiar with Thursday’s big news by now. If not, allow me to quickly sum things up: right handed closer Grant Balfour is once again a Ray! Balfour signed a two-year, $12MM contract — $3MM less than the Orioles offered. Allow me to be presumptuous for a moment. Since most of you are already familiar with the acquisition, I decided to do something other than the typical summary. Behold, a summary of today’s big event in the form of a series of tweets.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times)

Rays make it official, announce 2 year, $12 million deal with Balfour.
Sternberg: “This is a big deal for us.”
Balfour said there was more money elsewhere but he wanted to be back with (the) Rays and Maddon.
As if any question Maddon says Balfour will be the closer: “We’re going to use the c-word this year.”
Balfour says, “I’m totally healthy, 100 percent healthy and you’ll see that.”
Balfour on whether he’ll be even more fired up facing (the) Orioles: “I guess you ‘ll have to tune in.”
Sternberg: “My expectation is that David Price will be here.”
Rays designate LHP Pedro Figueroa for assignment to make room for Balfour.
Heard the breakdown on Balfour deal with the Rays is $5M in 2014, $7M in 2015.

Joe Smith (Tampa Bay Times)

Balfour on (the) Rays “It has always a place that’s been on my radar. To be honest I never wanted to leave here.” Calls it “home.”
When it comes to payroll, Sternberg said they want to give organization best chance to win even if they’re “in for a penny, in for a pound.”

Ken Rosenthal

Balfour deal with (the) Rays is for two years, per source. Agreement with (the) Orioles that collapsed was for two years, $15M.

@metsonmymind

Wow, the Mets are so bad that players choose other teams for less money.

@Bill_Veeck

That O’s-Rays rivalry just became a little more interesting, in terms of explosively intense late innings.

@WaltHils

Balfour to the Rays makes the birds failed physical even worse now that you`ll see him about 15 times this season.

@DennisMitchell

Balfour to the Rays. Good…it’s been a while since we had a good on field brawl!

Other Interesting Nuggets

Per Marc Topkin, Balfour’s two-year, $12-million contract appears to be the third largest free-agent deal under the Sternberg regime, trailing the three-year, $21-million deal they just gave James Loney and the two-year, $16-million deal Pat Burrell got in 2009.
After Balfour’s two-year, $15-million agreement with the Orioles fell apart, there was some talk about him filing a grievance against Baltimore. According to Topkin, now that the deal is set with the Rays, Balfour indicated there may still be something in the works. “I’m not going to comment on it. We’ll see what happens,” Balfour said. “I’m here to stay. I have a contract with the Rays, and anything else that’s going to happen on that part will be taken care of, and we’ll move forward. That’s not going to affect anything I’ve got going here. I’m moving on. I’m glad to be here, really happy to be here. That stuff is going to be taken care of by other people on my behalf.”

Balfour Centric Stats

Over the past six seasons, Balfour ranks second among AL relievers in appearances (383), innings pitched (380.1) and strikeouts (410), and fourth in opponents’ batting average (.194).
His 6.74 hits allowed per nine innings over his 10-season career is the fifth lowest among all active relievers — with a minimum of 300 appearances.
Balfour has reached the postseason five times: 2004 with the Minnesota Twins, 2008 and 2010 with the Rays, and 2012-13 with Oakland. He said his primary goal is to win the World Series.