It’s been a long off-season — too long, if you ask me. I wouldn’t go as far as to say baseball defines who I am. However, I do love baseball and I feel a bit empty when I don’t have it in my life. And though I’ve been consumed by other things in the interim — things that deserved my whole, undivided attention — there’s a little piece of me that springs to life at this point of the year. Friends, at long last, the Rays’ pitchers and catchers have reported to Port Charlotte, and I couldn’t be more excited!
I’ve spent much the Hot-Stove period writing about the Rays’ acquisitions and moves, and now it’s time to put the proverbial rubber to the road. I received an interesting email from a fellow blogger the other day. His challenge, if I choose to accept it: answer six simple questions about the state of the Rays going into Spring Training and the 2014 season.
- How would you grade the off-season?
- What does Wil Myers do for an encore?
- Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?
- What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
- What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?
- Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?
Challenge accepted! A note before I get started, it may be too early to make any accurate predictions for the upcoming season. With this in mind, I’ll be answering the same six questions in a little more than a month. The aforementioned blogger will be posting my responses on his site as well. If anything, it’ll be interesting to see how things progress in Port Charlotte, leading up to opening day.
Since this is a fairly expansive topic, I’ll be splitting it into two different pieces.
How would you grade the off-season?
If you asked me this question during the 2013 Winter Meetings, I’m not certain I would have graded the Rays favorably. After all, there were lingering concerns over David Price’s status with Tampa Bay, and the Rays hadn’t made any significant moves to fill holes in the bullpen and the right-hand side of the infield. Sure, Friedman and company made a good move by acquiring Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan. Yet low we sat facing the prospect of having a rent-a-player at first, and no official closer. My how things have changed.
Since the 2013 Winter Meetings, the Rays locked James Loney into a three-year contract, signed utility infielder Jayson Nix to a minor league contract, avoided another round arbitration hearings with seven players (including David Price), acquired five players from the Padres — including Brad Boxberger and Logan Forsythe — in a seven player trade, and brought Grant Balfour back home to the other Bay Area. In short, the Rays went from mediocrity to pretty damn good, as it relates to their off-season moves.
Sure, the Rays didn’t sign a designated hitter. However, allow me to remind you that their last productive DH was Johnny Damon, who slashed .261 BA/.326 OBP/.418/.744 OPS in 2011. He wasn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination, however, he didn’t fit the mold of what the Rays were looking out of that position. And lest we forget those who came before and after Damon — Pat Burrell and Luke Scott? Need I really say anything about them? The absence of an official DH gives the Rays flexibility. They’ll be able to give Evan Longoria, Wil Myers, Matt Joyce, David DeJesus and Ben Zobrist some time off their feet, while keeping their productive bats in the lineup on a fairly regular basis.
What does Wil Myers do for an encore?
Oh Wil “AL Rookie of the Year” Myers… The player who out performed the ballyhooed Yasiel Puig (considering a shorter stint in the majors in 2013) with half the fanfare, the player whose first major league homer was a grand slam in Yankee Stadium, and the player whose embarrassing error gave the Red Sox a decided advantage in game one of the 2013 ALDS — what can we expect out of you this year? Warts and all, Myers met most people’s expectations in 2013. With him in the lineup, the Rays were able to push their way into the postseason following a lackluster August.
Most projection sites find Myers regressing in 2014, presumably due to his hard time in making adjustments at the plate — especially on pitches on the outside corner, and inside (and lower) third of the plate.
However, those sites also project that Myers will be more patient at the plate. They find his K% falling anywhere from 1% to 2%, with an increase in his BB%. Regression happens, it’s inevitable. I don’t see him posting the .293 BA/.354 OBP/.478 SLG/.832 OPS he had the year prior. However, I don’t see him regressing to the .264 BA/.334 OPS/.453 SLG/.787 OPS hitter Steamer projects he’ll be. Over the span of his professional career, Myers has averaged somewhere in the ballpark of a .304 batting average, while hitting under .260 only once — in 2011 with the Royals Double-A affiliate, in 416 plate appearances. Unless there is a drastic change in his approach, or he’s unable to adjust to the pitchers — who will, undoubtedly, adjust to him — I really don’t see a reason for the drastic regression in production many have projected. Would I be content with a .286 BA/+.320 OBP/+.800 OPS/+25 HR slash line? Absolutely!
To be continued tomorrow…
- Per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, “The Rays have agreed to a minor league contract and an invitation to big league Spring Training with left-hander Erik Bedard, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted last night that the two were likely to strike such a deal, and MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo first connected the two sides on Wednesday. Bedard is a client of Relativity Baseball. The 34-year-old Bedard spent the 2013 campaign with the Astros, posting a 4.59 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate in 151 innings as both a starter and reliever. Bedard has always been injury prone, but until the past two seasons, he had always been effective when on the active roster. From 2006-11, Bedard posted a 3.44 ERA and whiffed 679 batters against 245 walks in 671 1/3 innings. Since that time, however, he’s turned in just a 4.78 ERA in 276 2/3 innings between Pittsburgh and Houston.”