The New What Next: Rays vs Twins — A Series Preview of Sorts

Wil Myers celebrates with Matt Joyce and James Loney after Myers' three-run home run during the fifth inning of a game against the New York Yankees. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Wil Myers celebrates with Matt Joyce and James Loney after Myers’ three-run home run during the fifth inning of a game against the New York Yankees. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The Rays will try to get their bats going again after a 5-1 loss in 12 innings to the Yankees on Sunday. They totaled 32 hits while outscoring New York 27-6 on Friday and Saturday following Price’s loss in the series opener. However, Tampa Bay managed only one run on six hits Sunday, striking out 14 times after fanning a combined 10 times in the previous two contests. Matt Joyce’s seventh-inning sacrifice fly provided the lone run. The Twins avoided a sweep Sunday with an 8-3 win in Kansas City. Minnesota was 6-for-14 wRISP after going 6-for-34 in their previous four games.

The Rays took the Knutson Cup, once again, from the Twin this past spring. They’ve also dominated Minnesota since 2008, posting a 29-14 record. Tampa Bay is 33-26 at Tropicana Field, and they won six of seven last year.

Of note: the Twins will start Kyle Gibson against David Price Tuesday — not Mike Pelfrey. Price is coming off a six run, 10 hit outing Friday. His worst three earned run totals allowed last season were 8, 6 and 5. In his outings immediately following those starts, he posted a 2.45 ERA while striking out 22 batters in as many innings. One could only hope for similar results. After all, at 3-0 with an 0.93 ERA, Gibson will prove to be tough. Price is 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA in seven career games — six starts — against the Twins.

Kyle Gibson has been called a revelation through his first three starts — especially given his struggles as a rookie in 2013, when he went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 10 outings. Gibson was solid in the Twins 7-0 win over Toronto on Thursday, yielding only four hits and a walk over eight innings. He gave up four runs in six innings of a 4-1 loss at Tampa Bay on July 9th in his third major league outing.

At one game over .500, the Twins are ahead of what was expected of them this season. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they are 1.5 games back in the AL Central.

Rays and Twins series starters.
Rays and Twins series starters.
Rays and Twins offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Twins offensive production at home, away, and overall.
By the Numbers-1
Rays and Twins, by the numbers.

Kyle Gibson: Per Rotowire, “Gibson (3-0) shut down the Blue Jays for eight innings Thursday, allowing just four hits and a walk while striking out four.” Gibson offers a 90-94 MPH fastball, a plus slider — which he uses to miss bats — and a plus change-up. The 25 year-old RHP works comfortably in the lower range, but has the strength to add a bit of extra oomph when necessary.

Mike Pelfrey: RHP Mike Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one start (6 IP) against the Rays, back in 2013. Small sample size or not, a handful of Rays have put together some good numbers against Pelfrey. Look at the bright side: he doesn’t frequently throw pitches in that low-and-outside quadrant that Evan Longoria and Wil Myers seem to have a hard time against. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (5-18, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Ryan Hanigan (1-3), Matt Joyce (1-3), Evan Longoria (3-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Wil Myers (2-3, RBI), Sean Rodriguez (1-2).

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Ricky Nolasco: Nolasco allowed five runs on 11 hits, striking out three over 5.2 innings of a 5-0 loss to the Royals on Friday night. More importantly, the Rays have had a lot of success against Nolasco, extending back to his tenure with the Marlins, tagging him with an 0-3 record and a 5.60 ERA in his last three starts. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (10-29, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (3-3, HR, 2 RBI), Ryan Hanigan (2-8, HR, RBI), Matt Joyce (3-6, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (1-4, HR, RBI), Ben Zobrist (4-8, 2B, RBI, 3 BB).

Noteworthiness

  • Joe Mauer has a career .374 average against Tampa Bay, his highest batting average against any American League club, though he’s just 2 for 14 off Price. That .143 average is tied for the 11th-lowest among the 144 pitchers whom he has faced at least 10 times.
  • Minnesota RF Jason Kubel is off to a good start in his return to the Twins, batting .328 with 11 RBI.
  • Ben Zobrist boasts a .398 on-base percentage and has scored 14 runs — five more than anyone else on the team.
  • The Rays are last in the league with only four stolen bases and Minnesota is tied for ninth with 13 — five by Brian Dozier.
  • The Rays have activated Juan Carlos Oviedo from the DL. The fastball/splitter throwing pitcher will join the ranks in the bullpen, and could see action Tuesday night. Per Joe Smith of the Times, Oviedo says he’s excited to finally be back, (his) arm feels great, (and he’s) hoping to pitch in first big league game since 2011.
  • This is pretty awesome! This interactive graph of batter-pitcher matchup projections, for every game of the series, was created by Ian Malinowski of DRaysBay and Jason Hanselman (Dock of the Rays). It incorporates Bojan Koprivica’s research on regressing platoon splits and ZiPS projections. The grey line is at an average wOBA of .320
  • Daniel Russell of DRaysBay spoke with John Sickels, who runs the SB Nation site Minor League Ball, and asked a few questions regarding some key players in the organization. For anyone interested in the pitching depth aspect of the Rays organization, especially in this time of need, this interview is for you!

Allow Me to Unofficially Announce Our Upcoming Watch Party

 

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(Photos in the collage provided by the Tampa Bay Rays and Trip Advisor)

I’ve been tight lipped about our upcoming Rays watch party, though I recall saying I’d give you, dear reader, more information once some of the fine details have been hammered out. In the spirit of transparency, here’s what we’ve got lined up (so far).

On Friday, May 30th, we (along with our sponsors Big Sea Design and Star Booty) will be partnering with Green Bench Brewing Company to throw our first watch party of the 2014 season! Come join us when the Rays take on the Red Sox, in Boston. First pitch, 7:10 PM. This will be a family friendly event.

Along with the killer venue, Green Bench will have a variety of great things at the ready, such as:

  • Outside game viewing under the stars, (once the sun sets) in the beer garden.
  • Yard games like whiffle ball, corn hole, and more.
  • Drink specials for anyone wearing Rays gear — including your “Raymones” shirt.
  • Food provided by a local food truck (specifics to come).
  • Live music leading up to first pitch (specifics to come).

And much more!

We’ll also be selling “Raymones” shirts, if you haven’t purchased one yet.

This being the “unofficial” announcement, we’ll continue to update things as they are confirmed. Save the date, spread the word, and come one and all — we can’t wait to see you at Green Bench!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Fall to Yankees, 5-1, Roster Moves, Etc

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The Rays fell to the Yankees by a score of 5-1 Sunday, walking away with a series tie after the four hour and 23 minute, extra innings, contest.

Credit where it’s due, the Rays pitching staff, with Cesar Ramos at the charge, was great until the 12th inning, when CJ Riefenhauser and Josh Lueke were tagged for four runs.

Ramos was excellent, slashing 5 IP/4 H/1 ER/1 BB/3 K/53 pitches (35 strikes, 66% K/BB)/5 GO/5 FO. His start, ironically, matched his line from his previous five inning start, back in 2009.

Ramos’ outing today was indicative of what we should expect out of him in the starting rotation. Everyone has bad outings (see Price’s last outing, and Archer’s outing prior to his start Saturday night). I’m inclined to believe Ramos’ previous start against the Reds was the exception, not the rule. It’ll be interesting to see whether Maddon will allow him to go deeper in his next outing — assuming Maddon gives him another shot.

Moving forward, the Rays will cap off their current home stand with a three game set against the Twins, starting Tuesday. I’ll put together the series preview shortly.

Noteworthiness

  • Joe Maddon said Myers should have tagged up in 11th, though he was not sure he would have made it. The ensuing steal was actually a botched hit and run play.
  • Overall, “Maddon was pleased with (the) pitching, and put more focus on the Rays lack of offense,” tweeted Marc Topkin. He went on, the “decision in (the) 12th was obvious to face Anna rather than Ellsbury, was confident in Riefenhauser.
  • The Rays optioned CJ Riefenhauser back to Triple-A Durham. They will reinstate Juan Carlos Oviedo from the DL prior to Tuesday’s game against the Twins.
  • The 12th inning intentional walk of Jacoby Ellsbury was the 25th time since ’06 that Joe Maddon ordered an IBB with a man on first — Seven more than any other team.

    • Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Crush Yankees, 16-1

    Who doesn't like an orange roof -- especially after a 16-1 shellacking of the Yankees?
    Who doesn’t like an orange roof — especially after a 16-1 shellacking of the Yankees?

    Just a day removed from the Rays’ come from behind victory against the Bronx Bombers Friday, Tampa Bay absolutely destroyed the Yankees Saturday night, handing Derek Jeter and company a crushing 16-1 loss — a score worthy of a football game. The Rays will walk into the series finale Sunday, having scored 29 runs in three-games — more than they scored in the previous 11 games combined. The 16 runs matched the club’s most since April 4, 2011 in Boston, and are the second most at home in franchise history (17 vs Baltimore, Sep 5, 2007). Wil Myers (3-4, 4 R, 4 RBI) and Ryan Hanigan (3-4, 2 R, 6 RBI) each homered twice, while Evan Longoria smacked career homer number 164. Longo now owns the franchise record for home runs. Archer was credited the win (2-1) while Ivan Nova, who gave up eight earned runs, was charged with the loss. Nova left the game in the fifth inning with what was reported as a partial tear of ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He’ll be placed on the DL Sunday.

    Myers got the Rays’ offense started early with a solo no-doubter to left (his first homerun of 2014) off a hanging curveball from Nova in the second inning. Hanigan followed suit in the third, cranking a leadoff homer down the left field line. Ben “Mr. Dependable” Zobrist hit a one out, opposite field, single to left, and was subsequently brought home by Evan Longoria on a two out home run off another poorly located Nova curveball. His blast hit the C Ring in the outfield.

    The Rays were not done with the Yankees. Myers drew a leadoff walk, and was driven home on Hanigan’s second homer of the evening — another pulled shot to left, giving the Rays a six run advantage. The four home runs relinquished by Nova were a career high for an outing.

    Though the Yankees got on the board in the top of the fifth inning, the Rays more than answered for their run. Former Ray Kelly Johnson drove Alfonso Soriano home on a hard hit double to left center. Soriano initially reached base on an infield single.

    Zobrist led off the bottom of the fifth with a single against the Yankees’ shift, and was moved to third on a Matt Joyce opposite field double. Nova left the game in the following at bat after a 1-1 pitch to Longoria. That he shook his right arm several times after throwing the pitch, was enough to prompt the removal of Nova in favor of Matt Daley. Of note, Daley replaced Cesar Cabral on the Yankees’ roster after Friday night’s three HBP fiasco. Longoria welcomed Daley with a Zobrist plating sac-fly to right. With one out and a runner at second, the Yankees intentionally walked James Loney, bringing Myers to the plate. Myers promptly ripped a three-run laser shot off a poorly located fastball, giving the Rays a 10-1 lead. The Rays still weren’t done.

    Longoria drove in Zobrist on a single in the sixth, giving Longoria eight consecutive multi-hit games against the Yankees. He also has a 12 game hitting streak against the Bronx Bummers. Loney followed with an RBI double to right, scoring Matt Joyce and moving Longo to third. Daley was pulled in favor of Dellin Betances who struck out Myers for the second out of the inning. They were a hairs width away from ending the inning, if not for a Yangervis Solarte error that allowed Longoria to score. Betances responded with two consecutive walks (Yunel Escobar and Hanigan), scoring Loney.

    The Rays added two more runs on a Hanigan single in the bottom of the eighth, with shortstop Dean Anna on the mound. Watching Anna throw what amounted to batting practice quality pitches was amusing at best. It bears mentioning: Anna topped out at 72 MPH, with most of his pitches ranging in the 55-60 MPH range.

    Chris Archer was on point Saturday night, improving to 2-1 on the season. Archer cruised through the first four innings of the game– facing the minimum number of batters, while throwing just 50 pitches. Though he was touched for a run in the top of the fifth, Archer limited the damage and put together a solid 6.2 IP/3 H/1 ER/0 BB/4 K on 94 pitches (61 strikes, 65% K/BB) outing. I really liked that Archer wasn’t afraid of pitching to contact. Archer induced weak contact, for the most part, which the Rays fielders gobbled up.

    CJ Riefenhauser, made his major league debut in the top of the seventh inning, impressively needing only 12 pitches (10 strikes) to get four outs in his 1-1/3 innings of work. Josh Lueke finished the game for the Rays, striking out two in the top of the ninth.

    Cherish these moments. Do I think this is who the Rays are, offensively speaking? Absolutely not. However, they are better than the team that scored only 27 runs in the previous 11-games. They’re somewhere in between. In the end, it’s been incredibly exciting to watch the players who need to be productive, and in synch with one another, begin to heat up at the plate.

    The New What Next

    Cesar Ramos could be making his final start of the season, depending on how well he performs against Vidal Nuno and the Yankees. The Rays have had success against Nuno in the past, slashing .294 BA/.333 OBP/.471 SLG/.804 OPS in six innings of work. Ramos will look to keep the Rays in the game, while Tampa Bay will look to hit Nuno hard early on. If the Rays can knock Nuno out of the game early, they will get to face a tired Yankee bullpen which they’ve had success against the past few days.

    Rays 4/20/14 Starting Lineup

    Rodriguez LF
    Zobrist DH
    Forsythe 2B
    Longoria 3B
    Myers RF
    Loney 1B
    Guyer CF
    Escobar SS
    Hanigan C
    Ramos LHP

    Noteworthiness

    • Zobrist will get a day off, of sorts, Sunday. He’ll take on the DH role, hitting second, while Logan Forsythe gets the start at second, hitting third. 
    • Myers has gone 6-for-9, with 9 RBI, and 2 HR since Friday.
    • With their recent offensive outburst, the Rays’ pythagorean record went from 7-10 to 10-8.
    • Per a Marc Topkin tweet, Jeremy Hellickson said felt good playing catch Sunday after a week off. In his previous throwing session, Hellickson felt soreness from throwing curveballs. He said the setback would only be a few days.
    • Desmond Jennings is set to test his groin today by running. He mentioned it’s feeling better, and said theres on fear or concern he’ll spend time on the DL.