X-Rays Spex – Page 479 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

The New What Next: From One “Sox” Team to the Other

The look on Ryan Hanigan's face sums up the Rays four-game series in Chicago. (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images) — The look on Ryan Hanigan’s face sums up the Rays four-game series in Chicago. (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays will go from facing one “Sox” ball club to the other Tuesday, when they head to Boston for a three-game series at Fenway. A very disjointed Rays will battle the reigning World Series champs, in the battle for last. That is, at 12-14 and 11-15 (respectively), both teams sit at the bottom of the AL East, behind the Blue Jays. Why disjointed?

Joe Maddon would be (and has been) the first to admit that the pitching has been less than stellar of late. Yet, they haven’t been completely out of the games they’ve recently lost — Monday night’s four run loss to the White Sox speaks to that. Simply put, they haven’t been able to sync up the pitching and hitting when they’ve so desperately needed too. In the end, a three or four run gap is not one that a good team cannot overcome. Consider too, the Rays gave up 11 two-out runs over the course of their four game set against the ChiSox, including six two-out runs (yes, six) Monday night. A weak link? The bullpen, which has given up 16 of 27 total runs over the past seven days. The offense was no better, batting .167 wRISP (6-36) over the course of the series in Chicago. The (little) consolation if there was one the Rays, per their Pythagorean Expectation, should be 12-14. I’d reckon two games under .500 sounds better than four.

Boston, on the other hand, isn’t playing at the highest level either. The Red Sox have struggled in 2014, and have failed to win more than two straight. Furthermore, they’re only 5-8 at Fenway, 3-1/2 back of the first-place Yankee. They (like the Rays) will not be above .500 come May 1st, with two games left in the season’s first month of play.

Rays and Red Sox offensive production at home, away, and overall.

John Lackey: The mouth-breather has gone 1-2 with an 8.84 ERA while pitching fewer than six innings in his recent starts against Tampa Bay. Lackey also gave up four runs and walked three in 5 1-3 innings of a 7-4 victory in Game 2 of last season’s division series against the Rays. We’re well versed in the ways of Lackey by now — after all, X-Rays Spex has written about him at length for the past few years. You know what to expect out of him: poorly located fastballs and hittable cutters (he’s given up five homers on those pitches alone), and a put away curve-ball. The question begs, how much of an advantage will Bedard give the Sox Tuesday night? Key match-ups: David DeJesus (6-24, 2 RBI), Yunel Escobar (8-15, 2 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Matt Joyce (6-18, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), James Loney (4-16, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (10-31, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-5) Ben Zobrist (11-27, 3 2B, 4 RBI, 5 BB)

Felix Doubront: Simply put, Doubront is the weakest link in the Red Sox rotation, and the Rays will attempt to pounce. He’s put together a lofty 6.00 ERA, with opponents hitting .294 against him — including a .901 OPS for left-handers. What’s more, he’s thrown just 24 innings in his five start, leaving the pen with an incredible amount of stress. Finally, his LOB percentage is an atrocious 58.2%. Doubront could bode well for Tampa Bay. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (6-20, 2 BB), Desmond Jennings (4-16, 2B, 4 BB), Matt Joyce (1-3, BB), Evan Longoria (6-17, 3 2BB, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Jose Molina (1-4, BB), Wil Myers (3-8, 3 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (5-20, 2 RBI, 4 BB)

Jake Peavy: Peavy was very good in his previous start against Toronto, allowing just one run on five hits, walking two and striking out seven over seven innings of work. The Rays have been able to touch Peavy in the past, cranking four homers off the 31 year-old righty over in his last 20 innings of work against Tampa Bay. Key match-ups: Ryan Hanigan (1-3), James Loney (10-31, 5 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wil Myers (1-2, RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-4), Ben Zobrist (4-13, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

The Sox lead the series 162-116, and are 89-50 in Boston. However, the Rays are 22-15 in Fenway over the past four seasons.
Boston won 12 of 19 regular-season meetings between the two last season, then won three of four in the ALDS. Boston won. Of the Rays’ 12 losses to Boston last year, six were decided from the ninth on — three on walkoffs.
Tuesday night will be the team’s 1,000th game since changing from Devil Rays to Rays in 2008, with a 561-438 record after Monday.
Will Middlebrooks, mixed bag. Middlebrooks has been back in the lineup for a couple of games and has gone 3-for-8 with a home run and a double. However, he has only one walk in that incredibly small sample size. Make quality pitches against this swing happy youngin.
Telling stat: Rays starters have gone five innings or fewer in 10 of last 14 games.

I’ll write more shortly!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Game Third Game of the Series to the White Sox, 9-2

Yunel Escobar tosses the ball to Ben Zobrist, unsuccessfully forcing out Gordon Beckham in the third inning Sunday. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

It’s up to debate whether the Rays would/could have eked out a 2-0 win against the White Sox Sunday — that is, assuming the five run, four error sixth inning, and the four run seventh never happened. For one thing, David Price sailed, efficiently, through the front five innings. And though the offense failed to tack on more than two runs — that is, when they had opportunities to do so in three other innings — they seemed in line for another one of their patented one or two run victories (see: the games on April 8, April 11, and April 12). Overall, they went 1-5 wRISP, stranding six men on the bags. Instead, they were embarrassed by the soft tossing, 29 year-old rookie (and the rest of the south-siders for that matter), falling 9-2.

Hell, even Fangraphs gave the Rays a 71.8% chance of winning with only one run up to the sixth inning. Go ahead, run your cursor over the graph, and watch as the odds of a Rays’ win plummeted from the sixth inning on.

Source: FanGraphs

One hiccup, a rare error by Ben Zobrist, turned into a defensive miscue. Then a two-run, two error play by David Price and Wil Myers (both throwing) on a bunt up the third base line preceded a two-run blast to deep left, by Jose Abreu. That then — stop me, oh oh oh stop me, stop me if you think that you’ve heard this one before — preceded another run scoring error, this time by Yunel Escobar. Previous to the sixth, Price threw only 69 pitches. The Rays ace tossed 31 pitches in that inning alone. The seventh inning wasn’t any better. Price and Josh Lueke combined for four runs on two hits and a walk.

If I may, the idea is to put a dependable pitcher on the mound in a high leverage situation — one you that you trust can, and will, mop up any mess the previous pitcher may have gotten himself into. I’d hardly qualify Josh Lueke as that pitcher. Lueke has now given up five hits (to eight batters) in medium and high leverage situations, while striking out only one. He’s okay in low leverage situations — batters have slashed .254 OBA/.310 OBP/.377 SLG/.303 OPS against the Rays’ righty. However, the quality of his outings plummet when the pressure is applied. Furthermore, with a .474 OBA/.500 OBP/.632 SLG/.488 OPS slash line with runners in scoring position, relinquishing six earned runs and striking out only two, I’d argue that Lueke is the last pitcher that should see time on the mound when the Rays are down by a manageable three or four runs, with runners on second or third.

The Rays put together the ugliest two-inning tandem I’ve ever seen. Moving Forward.

The New What Next

Tampa Bay will try it’s chances at a split series tonight, in the final game of this four game set. Jake Odorizzi will get the start against Andre Rienzo and the White Sox… That is, if the game even takes place — rain is expected. In any case, you can read about the pitching match-up, and oh so much more, in our series preview.

Rays 4/28/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
DeJesus DH
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

If you didn’t already know, Mike Montgomery and Brad Boxberger threw a combined no-hitter for Durham last Saturday. Watch the video (below) of that no-no… Just make sure you turn down the volume — The music leaves a lot to be desired. If any of you caught the interview with Marc Topkin on WDAE this morning, you heard about the distinct possibility of Mike Montgomery, Nate Karns, or Enny Romero (in that order) joining the Rays if the Erik Bedard experiment continues to sputter, and ultimately fails.

Your browser does not support iframes.

Tampa Bay has allowed nine-plus runs five times this season. They’re tied with Houston for the most such games in the AL.
The Rays had the fewest number of errors in all of baseball, going into Sunday’s game, at seven. At four errors in the sixth, they set a franchise record for the most errors committed in one inning, previously three (set in 2007). An achievement of non-distinction if there ever was one.
A shorter summary of the game? Hatfield of DRaysBay summed things up perfectly, “Between Price’s ineffectiveness, the mind-numbing defensive miscues, Josh Lueke being Josh Lueke and the quiet Rays bats against a career minor leaguer, there weren’t too many positives today. Not too many at all.”
It’s well documented that Jake Odorizzi pitches well the first time through the order (allowing a .121 OBA), yet can’t quite make the proper adjustments the second and third times through allowing a .452 OBA). Marc Topkin writes that he’s working on the imperative to keep himself, and his team, in the game. “Just be more aggressive,” Odorizzi said. “I’m losing aggressiveness. I’m trying to make the perfect pitch and instead that puts me in a bad spot if I miss it. I’m trying to work on getting some early count outs and I’ve been having trouble getting them the last couple games, so that’s going to be my focus. Get some early count outs, put the ball in play, let the defense work, try not to do everything myself.”
Jeremy Hellickson threw off the mound for the first time since arthroscopic elbow surgery Sunday — a step toward his projected early June return. “Hellickson, working out at the Trop,” writes Marc Topkin, “threw 20 pitches, all fastballs, and was said to feel good.”

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Ramos, Rays Blank ChiSox, 4-0

Hail Cesar! Ramos picked up his first victory as a starter with tonight's shutout effort for the Rays. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays) — Hail Cesar! Ramos picked up his first victory as a starter with tonight’s shutout effort for the Rays. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Many have suggested that Cesar Ramos is not fit for the starting rotation. I’d imagine some of you reading this might be one of those who may feel this way. I, on the other hand, feel as though he got the short end of the stick coming out of Spring Training — a feeling that’s bolstered every time he’s taken the mound since. Sure… He flubbed his first start of the season against the Reds. Since however, he’s tossed 10 innings of one run ball, including his impressive start Saturday night against the White Sox. Ramos put together an efficient 5 IP/4 H/0 R/2 BB/0 K/65 pitches (39 strikes, 60% K/BB)/9 GO/6 FO outing, in the Rays three-game, skid-ending, 4-0 win against the White Sox.

Having grown from his outing against the Reds, while improving on his outing against the Yankees, Ramos pounded the outer and lower reaches of the zone Saturday night, inducing his fair share of weak contact off the bats of the mightily productive White Sox hitters. He was able to work through a pair of high leverage innings, and came out unscathed. Ramos pitched around a leadoff double in the third inning, and got out of a bases loaded situation in the fifth — all the while, preserving the shutout.

The Third Inning

Gordon Beckham led off the third by hitting one of the only hard hit balls of the night; shooting a laser of a liner to right field. Wil Myers quickly fielded the play and returned the ball to Yunel Escobar as Beckham slid into second. Escobar had a chance to tag him before Beckham got to the bag, but he could not handle what was a pretty good throw from Myers. Beckham was safe at second with no outs. Adrian Nieto came to the plate with the Sox threatening, and promptly grounded out to second — moving Beckham to third with only one out. Adam Eaton was next, but he hit a comebacker to Ramos, keeping Beckham at third. Finally, he got Marcus Semien to line out to Longoria, consequently stranding Beckham at third.

Ramos ran into trouble once more in the bottom of the fifth, and he again worked through the jam.

The Fifth Inning

The Rays lefty yielded a leadoff walk to Alejandro De Aza, who moved to second on a base hit by Beckham. With two on and no outs, Nieto hit a sacrifice back to Ramos — giving the Rays an out, but moving the runners to second and third. Ramos, again, got Eaton to hit a comebacker to the mound. Ramos calmly looked De Aza back to third, before firing the ball to James Loney to put away the White Sox’s speedy center fielder for the second out of the inning. With two outs, Ramos walked Semien, bringing a very dangerous Jose Abreu to the plate with the bases loaded. We all know how this could have ended. Instead, Ramos got Abreu to end the inning by grounding out to Evan Longoria, who fired the ball — on a hop — to Loney.

Ramos departed after allowing a leadoff single to Dayan Viciedo in the sixth, giving way to Brandon Gomes. But why pull Ramos when he’d done so well? Konerko was one of the only opposing hitters to put together a pair of good at-bats against Ramos. With the leadoff runner on first, a sharply hit base hit off the bat of Konerko, could have scored Viciedo from first. It made sense to pull Ramos after only 65 pitches, which gave him the opportunity to leave the game on somewhat of a high note. It could also be argued that he’s not fully stretched out yet. Maddon let Ramos throw 15 more pitches this time around, and I’d imagine he’d be allowed to throw 80 pitches (or so) in his next start, five days from now.

Gomes needed just four pitches to get a double play ball from Paul Konerko, and a fly ball out from Alexis Ramirez. He went on to throw two more superb innings of no hit, no walk ball — striking out one along the way. Juan Carlos Oviedo came out to pitch in the bottom of the ninth inning.

With spotty command, Oviedo gave up a leadoff walk to Viciedo. Grant Balfour got started tossing the ball pen just in case. But the Rays righty got Konerko swinging (…swatting?) at a filthy change-up, while Viciedo moved to second on defensive indifference. With one out and a runner in scoring position, Ramirez fouled out to first for the second out of the inning. Viciedo moved to third on a wild pitch thrown by Oviedo, before De Aza grounded out to second, finishing the shutout for the Rays. Oviedo has a lot of movement on his pitches, and I’d imagine his fastball command will come around sooner than later.

The Rays’ scoring looked a little something like this:

The New What Next

The bullpen preserver himself, David Price, will take on White Sox prospect Scott Carroll, who will be making his Major League debut. It’s widely predicted Monday’s game could be rained out. If so, a win today would be the Rays first road series win of the season.

Rays 4/27/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
DeJesus DH
Escobar SS
Molina C
Price LHP

Noteworthiness

To answer the elusive question: yes, a manager CAN get ejected in this post replay era — just ask Joe Maddon, who was canned for arguing balls and strikes from the dugout.
The Rays needed 117 pitches (70 strikes) to finish their shutout against the White Sox. John Danks needed 123 (63 strikes) to finish 5.2 innings.
Marc Topkin writes, “Got to wonder, the way things have been going, if the Rays won’t soon consider expanding to an eight-man bullpen to add depth and flexibility (and maybe a second lefty). That would mean going to a three-man bench and either cutting loose OF Brandon Guyer (who rarely plays anyway) or sending down INF Logan Forsythe or, less likely, INF Sean Rodriguez.”
Topkin went on to say, “Given RHP Josh Lueke‘s repeated failures in high-leverage situations at the big-league level, at what point does the Rays’ patience evolve into stubbornness?”
RHP Jeremy Hellickson is scheduled to throw off the mound today at the Trop for the first time since elbow surgery.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Oof, Rays Fall to ChiSox in Not So Grand Fashion

(Grant Balfour reacts as Paul Konerko walks to first base during the ninth inning. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

If I was asked to put together a list of the Rays ugliest losses this season, a list which would include the week’s previous frustrating extra innings losses, Friday night’s loss in Chicago would easily take the cake. The Rays had every opportunity to come out victorious — an early 4-1 lead, they reached base 21 times (10 hits, 11 walks), and the pitchers that kept Tampa Bay in the thick of things until the ninth inning — yet they couldn’t finish the job. The Rays walked away from US Cellular Field last night with a 9-6 loss, as opposed to a 6-4 win. I’m still stunned.

It would be too easy to pin the blame solely on Grant Balfour… And to be fair, he is deserving of most the blame. However, Chris Archer — though he kept the Rays in the game — gave up the three-run lead, and the hitters couldn’t tack on the go ahead runs among the many opportunities to do so.

Chris Archer gave up his first run in the bottom of the first inning after allowing a lead-off single to Adam Eaton. Archer followed by striking out Marcus Semien, though a very eager to run Eaton swiped second. With the runner in scoring position, Jose Abreu hit a first-pitch slider to left-center for an RBI single, giving the other Sox a 1-0 lead. Archer held Chicago at one run until the third, when he left a breaking pitch over the plate which Abreu absolutely crushed to dead center, cutting the Rays lead to two. The White Sox tacked on a pair of runs in the bottom of the fourth after loading the bases on three straight singles. Tyler Flowers came up big, hitting a two-RBI single up the middle on the first pitch, tying the game. Archer was able to induce a Gordon Beckham fly-ball out to right field for the first out of the inning. With two on and one out, the Rays ran into a bit of inning ending luck when Eaton hit a comebacker to Archer who started an unconventional 1-5-2-4-6 double play — first catching Alejandro De Aza between home and third, and then catching Flowers between second and third to end the inning.

Archer, Joel Peralta, and Jake McGee did a good job of keeping the wolves at bay until the ninth inning, when Grant Balfour entered the game and gave up the ghost.

Tampa Bay was able to drive in four or more runs for the sixth time in seven games; a positive if there ever was one. If anything, it’s a sign the Rays have slipped out of their offensive hibernation. BUT, they also left a lot of meat on the bone Friday night.

With a three run lead, and the bases loaded (with two outs) in the top of the second, Evan Longoria grounded to short to shut the door on what should have been an even bigger inning. James Loney and Wil Myers led off the third inning with a pair of back-to-back walks, giving the Rays a healthy wRISP opportunity with DeJesus at the plate. However, DeJesus hit a soft liner to Beckham, for the first out of the inning. Yunel Escobar followed by striking out, and Hanigan ended the inning by grounding out to Beckham. Tampa Bay had another scoring opportunity in the fourth after Desmond Jennings singled up the middle, then moved up to second on a wild pitch with Matt Joyce at the plate — Joyce wound up walking. An overly anxious Evan Longoria chased a fastball and, consequently, grounded into an inning ending double play. Another inning, another wasted scoring opportunity.

James Loney led off the fifth inning with a single to center, and DeJesus moved him to third on a single just under the glove of Jose Abreu. Zach Putnam came on in relief of Petricka and promptly walked Yunel Escobar to load the bases for Ryan Hanigan. Unfortunately, an overly anxious Hanigan chopped the first pitch he saw, grounding into an inning ending 5-2-3 double play. At this point in the game, the Rays had eight walks on the night, yet they were only able to score one.

Ben Zobrist led off the sixth with a soft infield grounder, but Zo was thrown out at second after Jennings hit a chopper to third base. Matt Joyce drew his fourth walk of the game, moving Jennings to second, and Longoria made his way to the plate. Longo, however, struck out on a slider in the dirt on the third pitch of the at-bat. Loney ended the inning with an opposite field fly-ball out. Tampa Bay put on the leadoff man (Myers) once more in the seventh, and once more a double play (DeJesus) ended the threat.

The White Sox bought in their closer, Matt Lindstrom, in the top of the ninth inning. Matt Joyce welcomed Lindstrom with his fifth walk of the game — a Rays club record. Evan Longoria broke up the 4-4 deadlock with a two-run blast to dead-center, giving the Rays a short lived 6-4 lead. In the end, the Rays went 3-13 wRISP, ultimately stranding 11 men on the bags.

Tampa Bay’s brief lead came to pass in the bottom of the inning when Grant Balfour entered the game for the Rays. Alexei Ramirez led things off with a fly-ball out to center on second pitch of the at-bat. But De Aza quickly got into got into scoring position on a double to the left-center gap. Tyler Flowers followed with Chicago’s first walk of the night on five consecutive sliders which missed the zone by a good margin. It was obvious Balfour didn’t have his stuff.

With no one warming in the pen and runners at first and second, Paul Konerko entered the game, pinch hitting for Beckham. With a full count on Konerko, Balfour drew a walk a pitch that was high in the zone. Apparently Konerko didn’t like the pitch and let Balfour know as much while walking to first. After the bravado session came to pass, Eaton grounded into a run scoring fielder’s choice to short. Adrian Nieto (who ran for Konerko) was forced out at second, and Eaton barely beat the throw to first. Joe Maddon challenged the play at first, but the call was confirmed after a review. With two outs, Balfour loaded the bases once more on a walk of Marcus Semien, bringing a very dangerous Abreu to the plate. Abreu promptly crushed a walk-off grand slam into the right field bullpen.

Again, Balfour shouldn’t assume all of the blame. However, as the closer, Balfour should have been able to shut the door on the Sox. A 5 R/2 H/3 BB 25 pitch (11 strikes) inning isn’t acceptable, and it landed the Rays their third consecutive loss in a game they should (and could) have won. The ninth inning of the game became a high leverage situation that could have been avoided, had Balfour depended more on his fastball, and less on his slider which he had no command of.

The New What Next

Cesar Ramos will look to put together his second consecutive good outing Saturday, when he takes on John Danks and the White Sox. You can read about the match-up in our series preview.

Rays 4/26/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Jennings CF
Myers RF
Longoria 3B
Rodriguez LF
Loney 1B
Forsythe DH
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Ramos P

Noteworthiness

“That’s a frustrating night for me. I know I’m better than that. I was pitching away from contact a little bit. I probably got a little carried away with breaking balls. … You can’t go putting three guys on.” — Grant Balfour
“This is absolutely a game that we should have won. Right pitcher in the right spot, right part of their batting order coming up, and we just didn’t get it done.” — Joe Maddon
“He’s (Balfour) closed out some games for us already and nothing like this happened. I think he understands that we’re still behind him and we trust him, that when he comes in that it’s going to be a save. I think we understand that nobody feels worse than he does.” — Evan Longoria
“That’s a tough loss for us, for sure, especially after we went up two runs — we had that game in hand.” — Matt Joyce
Paul Konerko told the media he didn’t know what Balfour was yelling, saying, “When someone’s that close yelling, you want to find out why.” He went on to say, “When someone on a baseball field, on the other team is yelling that close to you, you just can’t have that.”

Rays 4/25/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

Comiskey Park, home of the White Sox prior to their aborted move to St. Pete. — Comiskey Park, home of the Chicago White Sox prior to their aborted 1988 move to St. Petersburg.

Rays 4/25/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
DeJesus DH
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

Little victories… As it relates to enforcement of the Transfer Rule, Major League Baseball made changes Joe Maddon (and assuredly other mangers around the big leagues) sought. Beginning with the games tonight, the umpires will enforce the Transfer Rule according to the standards pictured below:

Tampa Bay 7-2 in games started by Chris Archer and David Price, and 3-10 in the other games. What’s more, over last 10 games, the starters have thrown 48.2 innings, while the relievers have thrown 44.1 innings. Meanwhile, the Rays are 10-12 after 22 games for the second straight season.
The All-Star ballots have been released, and there are nine Rays listed: James Loney, Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar, Evan Longoria, David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers, Matt Joyce (DH), and RyanHanigan.
“The reality for the Rays, right now anyway,” writes Marc Topkin, “is they don’t have any better options to fill out their starting five — after David Price and Chris Archer — than Bedard, Cesar Ramos and Jake Odorizzi.” That is, don’t expect any moves to bolster the starting rotation any time soon.
Don’t forget to read our Rays/White Sox series preview, if you haven’t already. If you have, well…read it again!