The New What Next: Rays vs. Astros, Part Two — A Series Preview of Sorts

Artistic, right?!
Artistic, right?!

The Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Houston Astros into the friendly confines of the Big Top, a mere four days after they last faced them at Minute Maid Park. The Rays are in slightly better shape than they were last week when they first took on the Astros. Tampa Bay has won three out of their last six, averaging just under four runs per game in that span. Still, the last two games were winnable, and therefore left a lot to be desired.

When the Rays lose, it’s as though they find new ways to do so. Take the last series against the Orioles, for example. Tampa Bay scored five, yet the pitching staff — led by Erik Bedard — gave up seven. Then Wednesday, the Rays were blanked for the sixth time in the month of June (the 11th time overall), making Baltimore’s struggling starter, Kevin Gausman, look like the second coming of Cy Young himself.

The Astros, on the other hand, have dropped four of their last five, including a two game, Interleague set to the Washington Nationals — both by a score of 6-5. Still, as Marc Topkin writes,

Houston’s power and speed remain impressive: only Oakland and Toronto entered Wednesday with more homers, only Kansas City had more steals. 2B Jose Altuve had boosted his average to .326, third in the AL. Sunday’s starter, LHP Dallas Keuchel, is in the top 10 in the AL with a 2.63 ERA. But Houston is near the bottom of the league in ERA and shutouts.

Also unpalatable; Houston’s opponents have failed to score at least four runs, four times through 15 games this month — the Rays were responsible for two of those games.

I remain cautiously optimistic for Tampa Bay in this series. On one hand, the Rays pair well with Houston when you compare their numbers at The Trop, with the Astros’ numbers away. Too, Tampa Bay took two of three from Houston last week. Then again, nothing has been easy for the Rays, so who knows?

Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.

Collin McHugh: As I wrote of McHugh last week, McHugh has been very good this season, due in part to the use of his off-speed stuff — namely a very good curve ball with ridiculous vertical movement. The Astros righty has been able to incur a 19.5 percent swinging-strike rate, while opponents have hit a minuscule .025 with a .075 slugging percentage against it. Per the Brooks Baseball graph below, McHugh’s curve dropped an average of 9.02 inches in April and 8.61 inches in May. The second graph shows the horizontal movement, which was 8.73 inches in April and 7.73 in May.

Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated writes, “Moreover, when McHugh spots his curveball at or beneath the bottom of the strike zone, hitters have barely been able to lay off. Of the 118 curveballs that McHugh has thrown at or below opposing hitters’ knees, they have swung at 53 of them and come up empty on 29 of those swings. The Rays were able to tag him for four runs (three earned) in five innings of work, last Friday. Key matchups: David DeJesus (1-3, 2 RBI), Desmond Jennings (1-3, 2B), Matt Joyce (1-1, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3, 3B), Ben Zobrist (2-3, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI).

Jarrod Cosart: As I wrote of Cosart last week, Cosart’s quick arm generates a mid 90s fastball with plenty of movement to boot. He also features a power curve and change that has good separation from his fastball. His change, however, doesn’t feature notable movement. Expect Cosart to coax a fair number of grounders and a few strikeouts along the way. A caveat for Cosart, his motion features little deception, giving hitters an opportunity to see the ball for extended periods of time. To that end, Craig Goldstein of Fake Teams writes, “While Cosart generates a lot of movement on his fastball by using a crossfire delivery, he also sacrifices control, both due to the delivery and the exceptional spin imparted by it.” Cosart held Tampa Bay to three runs last Saturday, despite allowing 10 Rays to reach on nine hits and a walk. He was hittable then, and I’d argue he’ll be hittable Friday. The question du jour; can the Rays pounce on the opportunities they get? Key matchups: David DeJesus (1-2, BB), Ryan Hanigan (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2 2B), James Loney (2-6, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-7, HR, 3 RBI).

Brad Peacock: Peacock has been plagued with control issues over the years, including last week when he gave the Rays four free passes in his 4 IP outing. The fly-ball pitcher has also given up his fair share of homers, which could bode well for the Rays. He’s given up three or more runs in six of his 13 outings, averaging just under five innings per outing. You’d expect the Rays to be able to hit Peacock hard — here’s to hope, anyway. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (1-1, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), James Loney (1-2), Ben Zobrist (1-2).

Dallas Keuchel: Make no mistake, Keuchal has been very good this season, thanks to the fact that he’s been a ground ball inducing machine. If the heat map below is indicative of anything, it’s that Keuchal has an almost pathological avoidance of the high strike.

Keuchel heat map. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
Keuchel heat map. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)

Tampa Bay owned Keuchel last season, tagging the 26 year-old LHP for eight runs in a pair of starts. Keuchel’s losses, this season, have been few and far in-between — with his last coming in a four run, 5 IP start against the Nats, Tuesday. This season, Keuchel has been able to bounce back in his starts following a loss. If you’re a Rays fan, pray that Tampa Bay can force mistakes and find the Keuchel of yore — after all, it’s not going to be Sunday. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (1-3, 2B, 2 BB), James Loney (1-4, RBI), Sean Rodriguez (3-6, 2B).

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays lead the series 13-9 overall, and are tied 3-3 at home.
  • Evan Longoria has hit safely in seven straight games, batting .286 during that span.
  • Jose Altuve leads the majors with 96 hits, recording multiple hits in four of his last six games.
  • We’re incredibly happy to announce that Fancred has picked us up! You may be asking, what exactly is Fancred? Well buckaroo, Fancred’s mission is to unite the world’s sports fans by creating a new way to consume sports information and interact with other fans and members of their community. Fancred is essentially an aggregator site with mod a community feel to it. Our page can be found here. Click the link, make an account, and follow us!

X-Rays Spex Present Another Watch Party!

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On Friday, July 18th at 7:00 p.m. X-Rays Spex , Green Bench Brewing Company, and Star Booty are teaming up to host a proper Rays Watch Party, when the Rays take on the Minnesota Twins, in Minneapolis. We’re bringing all of the camaraderie of the game, some delicious foodstuffs, and some wonderful sounds — all just a stones throw from The Trop.

Enjoy the game on one of the flatscreen televisions in the tasting room, then make your way to the beer garden where the game will be projected once the sun sets.

The first pitch is set for 8:10 p.m., but be sure to get down to Green Bench early to enjoy the sweet sounds of the Galbraith Group and pre-game with your friends and your favorite brew. Outdoor games (including whiffle ball, corn hole, and more) will be available, so bring the entire family. Local barbecue provisioners Urban Brew and Barbecue will be on site, providing you with all your smoked food needs.

Throughout the night Green Bench will be offering $1.00 off beers to folks wearing Tampa Bay Rays gear, including X-Rays Spex’s very own “Raymones” shirt.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Bedard, Rays Fall to Orioles, 7-5

David DeJesus, in search for that elusive banana peel. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
David DeJesus, in search for that elusive banana peel. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The Baltimore Orioles, bolstered by a five-run third inning, walked away from the Big Top with a 7-5 win Tuesday night. LHP Erik Bedard befell the axe early (once again) after he gave up five runs on four hits, including a Chris Davis grand slam.

The skinny: Bedard was all over the zone. And even when he found the zone, his pitches were hammered.

Beadard's start had more in common with a Jackson Pollock painting, in that his pitches were spattered all over the place. (Pitch F/X courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Beadard’s start had more in common with a Jackson Pollock painting than a quality outing, in that his pitches were splattered all over the place. (Pitch F/X courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

If this home stand is viewed as a second Spring Training, I’d imagine Bedard should be in preservation mode. After all, the imminent return of Jeremy Hellickson is right around the corner, and either Bedard or Jake Odorizzi will be sent to Triple-A Durham by means of an option (in the case of Odorizzi) or a DFA.

Source: FanGraphs

The Rays battled back. Tampa Bay pulled within three in the third, thanks back-to-back solo shots by Sean Rodriguez (a mammoth shot off the “C” ring) and Desmond Jennings. The Rays came within a run two innings later on a James Loney, two RBI, opposite field double. But the rally stopped there after the Rays failed to drive in Loney to tie the game. Yunel Escobar tallied another run when he hit sacrifice fly to right, allowing Ben Zobrist to cross the plate. Five runs was enough to win the game Monday, though not last night.

The New What Next

Alex Cobb and Kevin Gausman will face off in a matinee matchup this afternoon to decide the series winner. Tampa Bay last faced Gausman in 2013, when they tagged the 23 year-old RHP for eight runs on 10 hits and three walks, over 5-1/3 innings. The mid-90s fastball/mid-80s changeup/mid-80s slider throwing Gausman has struggled on the inner half of the plate, and he’s been charged with seven runs in 17 innings of work (this season) because of it. That is, if the offense can remain productive, and if Alex Cobb can put together another dominating outing, we could be talking about back-to-back series wins later this afternoon. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 6/18/14 Starting Lineup

Joyce RF Kiermaier CF Longoria 3B Loney 1B Zobrist 2B DeJesus LF Sands DH Escobar SS Hanigan C Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

 

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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win 5-4, Thanks to Jerry Sands

Jerry Sands hits a two-run home run off Brian Matusz in the eighth inning. Catching for Baltimore is Caleb Joseph. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Jerry Sands hits a two-run home run off Brian Matusz in the eighth inning. Catching for Baltimore is Caleb Joseph. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

The Tampa Bay Rays entered The Trop yesterday afternoon, having not won a game against the Baltimore Orioles. Yet they walked out of Tropicana Field with a huge win under their belts, thanks to the second consecutive day of eighth inning, pinch hit heroics by Jerry Sands. The skinny; with the game tied at three runs apiece, Sands crushed a 2-0 pitch, giving the Rays a lead they’d never relinquish. Tampa Bay took the first game of the series by a score of 5-4, picking up its fourth win in five games. It certainly wasn’t a perfect win, but my oh my… Watching the Rays has become fun once again.

Tampa Bay took the lead following a relatively uneventful 1-2-3 first inning. To be fair, there was a bit of tension in the 10-pitch Manny Machado at-bat which culminated in a strikeout. Yunel Escobar got things started early, sending a laser shot to section 143. The extra batting practice before the game paid off, Escobar absolutely destroyed a 2-1, 92 MPH fastball, giving the Rays an early 1-0 lead.

Yunel Escobar reacts after hitting a home run off Wei-Yin Chen. Click the photo to watch the homer in all of its glory. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Yunel Escobar reacts after hitting a home run off Wei-Yin Chen. Click the photo to watch the homer in all of its glory. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Evan Longoria followed with a hard hit fly ball to deep center. What looked to be a homer off the bat found the deepest part of the park, falling a few feet shy of the wall. Longo ended up with a double, though he was stranded on second after a Ben Zobrist strikeout, and a James Loney foul out.

In the second inning, JJ Hardy singled and David Lough drew an 11 pitch walk with two outs, but Odorizzi got Ryan Flaherty swinging to end any threat. Then in the third, the Rays and O’s essentially mirrored one another, when both Chen and Odorizzi walked a runner, but stranded him on the base paths. In the case of the O’s, Nick Markakis drew a four-pitch walk, while Longo took the free pass on the side of Tampa Bay.

The Rays finally struck again in the fourth, after Odorizzi sat Baltimore down in order. James Loney led off the inning by doubling up the left-field line. Sean Rodriguez followed, laying down a beauty of a sac-bunt, and moving Loney to third with one out. Yet Logan Forsythe (who was 1-1 on the night by this point) hit into an unproductive out — sending a ball to shallow center which wasn’t deep enough to allow Loney to tag up and score. Yet Ryan Hanigan stepped into the box and delivered, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead on a two-run, no doubter to left.

GIF courtesy of DRaysBay.
GIF courtesy of DRaysBay.

History almost repeated itself in the fifth. Odorizzi mowed Baltimore down in order, while Jennings led off the inning with ground rule double to left. Yet Chen, doing his best Odorizzi impression, plowed through the heart of the Rays’ order, tossing seven consecutive strikes and ending the threat.

Tampa Bay held the shutout until the sixth when the Orioles struck back. After retiring eight consecutive batters, Odorizzi allowed a double to Nick Markakis. Two hitters later, the Rays righty tossed a center-center fastball to Adam Jones, and he crushed it — bringing Baltimore within one. Maddon pulled Odorizzi in favor of Brad Boxberger, after he tossed a respectable 5-1/3 innings of ball, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks. Boxberger put down both Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz, effectively cauterizing the wound.

The seventh inning was Joel Peralta’s. He would, as Brett Phillips of DRaysBay put it, “Provide some self-induced high-leverage innings that only Joel Peralta can give.” Peralta quickly gave up a leadoff hit to Hardy, and he moved to second on a David Lough sac-bunt. But Peralta buckled down and struck out the next two hitters (Ryan Flaherty and Caleb Joseph) to end the inning.

Grant Balfour, as he’s been wont to do this season, allowed the one-run lead to evaporate in the eighth, after he promptly gave up back-to-back singles. Maddon had seen enough, and called on de facto closer, Jack McGee to clean up the mess. Unfortunately McGee walked Chris Davis to load the bases, which brought Nelson Cruz to the plate. Cruz followed a high chopper off the plate (a mere inches away from being a foul ball) which, by the time Longoria fielded it, found all the runners safe on their respective bases — including home. With the game knotted at three, McGee buckled down, following with a strike out of Hardy and coaxing an inning ending ground-ball to short out of Steve Pearce.

Fortunately the tie lasted less than an inning. Evan Longoria led off the Rays half of the eighth with a walk, yet Darren O’Day responded by putting Ben Zobrist and Loney down — the balloon, that is the Rays, seemed to deflate a bit. Up against the wall, Joe Maddon called upon David Dejesus to pinch hit for Saen Rodriguez, which led to Buck Showalter to pull O’Day in favor of Brian Matusz. Then Maddon, forced to play the odds, called upon Jerry Sands to pinch hit for the pinch hitter. The move made sense on paper — Matusz has been tough against lefties but is weak against righties. Jerry Sands responded, crushing a 2-0, 91 MPH fastball over the foul pole.

Jerry Sands crushed a two-run homer, his first of the season, giving the Rays a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. Click the photo to watch the monster shot in all of its glory.
Jerry Sands crushed a two-run homer, his first of the season, giving the Rays a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. Click the photo, to watch the monster shot in all of its glory.

Your guess is as good as mine, as to how it stayed fair! I suppose the old saying, “A game of inches” would be apropos.

In the top of the ninth, Juan-Carlos Oviedo came into the game to close out the game. And despite the solo shot he gave up to Delmon Young, Oviedo retired everyone else. Rays win! Rays win! Rays win!

The New What Next

Erik Bedard will try to bounce back from a rough outing last Friday, when he takes the mound against Miguel Gonzalez and the Orioles tonight. Over the course of the last three seasons, the Rays have fared well against Gonzalez, handing the Orioles RHP a 2-3 record (in eight appearances) with a 3.94 ERA. Despite that, Gonzalez blanked the Rays over five innings in April, relinquishing only three hits along the way. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 6/17/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce RF
Longoria DH
Loney 1B
Zobrist 2B
DeJesus LF
Escobar SS
Molina C
Rodriguez 3B
Bedard LHP

Noteworthiness

  • Don’t look now, but the Rays have almost improved to a .400 WP, and boast a 30-41 (.425) Pythagorean Expectation — two games better than their W/L may indicate.
  • Evan Longoria will get a little time off his feet tonight, hitting third as the DH. Rodriguez will get the start at third, hitting ninth.
  • Jośe Molina and Matt Joyce were the recipients of early batting practice today, with Joe Maddon joining Derek Shelton once more. Escobar came back for more as well.
  • Jeremy Hellickson is slated to pitch in Durham Tuesday night, making his third of three scheduled rehab starts. However, he may pitch one additional game before returning to the team. With one more start, Helly could rejoin the Rays in Baltimore, on June 27th for their day-night doubleheader.
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Rays Day at the Emerald Bar

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Come and watch the Rays play the Detroit Tigers on the semi big-screens of the Emerald Bar, while listening to live music by Broken Things, Doug Burns of No Fraud, Kyle Chason and the Swindlin’ Hearts, and others on July 6th. First pitch is at 1:08 PM, and the music will start promptly after the 27th out.

This special watch party is a benefit for Second Chance Boxer Rescue, with provisions courtesy of Jimbo’s Joint — food will be free with a $5.oo donation to SCBR. X-Rays Spex will be on site hocking Raymones shirts (with proceeds going to SCBR), while the boxer rescue crew raffles off goodies among other things.

If anyone is interested in donating raffle or auctions items, please contact Michael Watkins, Janice Watkins or Cyndi Mulligan. All donations are tax deductible.