The New What Next: Rays vs. Astros, Part One — A Series Preview of Sorts

The Tampa Bay Rays start a three-game set in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. (Photo courtesy of James Ray)
The Tampa Bay Rays will start a three-game set in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. (Photo courtesy of James Ray)

Fresh off a big win in the series finale against St. Louis, the Tampa Bay Rays will start a three-game set against the Astros, in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. Compared to this time last season, the Astros have improved whereas the Rays, well… Because of it, this three game set promises to be interesting.

Houston is playing its best baseball in years. Once the laughing stock of baseball, after losing a whopping 324 games over the past three seasons, the Astros have been energized this season thanks in part to rookies George Springer and Jon Singleton. Springer has nine homers and 22 RBI in his last 18 games, and Singleton has three homers and nine RBI in 10 games since being called up. What’s more, DH Chris Carter has gotten toasty, entering the series with three solo homers in his last two games for the resurgent Astros, who are 20-11 since May 11. Meanwhile, Friday’s starter, 26 year-old Collin McHugh, has gone 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three outings. The Astros have won all three contests, while he’s held opponents to a .188 batting average. Not playing in the Rays favor, Houston has gone seven straight series without a series loss.

The Rays, on the other hand, are in the midst of their longest road losing streak since a 12-game slide July 30-Aug. 30, 2006. A positive; they ended a stretch of 31 consecutive scoreless innings at the plate Wednesday night.

Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.

Collin McHugh: McHugh has been very good this season, due in part to the use of his off-speed stuff — namely a very good curve ball with ridiculous vertical movement. The Astros righty has been able to incur a 19.5 percent swinging-strike rate, while opponents have hit a minuscule .025 with a .075 slugging percentage against it. Per the Brooks Baseball graph below, McHugh’s curve dropped an average of 9.02 inches in April and 8.61 inches in May. The second graph shows the horizontal movement, which was 8.73 inches in April and 7.73 in May.

Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated writes, “Moreover, when McHugh spots his curveball at or beneath the bottom of the strike zone, hitters have barely been able to lay off. Of the 118 curveballs that McHugh has thrown at or below opposing hitters’ knees, they have swung at 53 of them and come up empty on 29 of those swings. The information is reflected in the two graphs below.”

Colin McHugh percentage of whiffs. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Colin McHugh percentage of whiffs. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Jarrod Cosart: Per Rotowire, “Cosart allowed three runs on five hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six solid innings to earn his fifth win of the season Monday against the Diamondbacks.” Cosart was incredibly good in his one start against Tampa Bay last season, giving up only two hits in eight innings of work. Cosart’s quick arm generates a mid 90s fastball with plenty of movement to boot. He also features a power curve and change that has good separation from his fastball. His change, however, doesn’t feature notable movement. Expect Cosart to coax a fair number of grounders and a few strikeouts along the way. A caveat for Cosart, his motion features little deception, giving hitters an opportunity to see the ball for extended periods of time. To that end, Craig Goldstein of Fake Teams writes, “While Cosart generates a lot of movement on his fastball by using a crossfire delivery, he also sacrifices control, both due to the delivery and the exceptional spin imparted by it.”

Brad Peacock: Peacock has been plagued with control issues over the years, this season being no different. The fly-ball pitcher has also given up his fair share of homers, which could bode well for the Rays in the hitter friendly confines of the Juice Box. He’s given up three or more runs in six of his 13 outings, averaging just under five innings per outing. You’d expect the Rays to be able to hit Peacock hard — here’s to hope, anyway.

Noteworthiness

  • Per Marc Topkin, “What’s new: The Astros have won 13 of their last 18 games. They began Thursday 6-3 since the debut of 1B Jon Singleton, who signed a contract for a guaranteed $10 million this month before his first major-league game. RF George Springer has also made a huge imprint as a rookie, becoming the first Astro to hit 12 home runs in his first 47 games. CF Dexter Fowler is third in the AL with a .393 on-base percentage, and 2B Jose Altuve is on pace to become the third player with at least 50 doubles and 50 steals in the same season. Houston’s pitching is in the bottom half of the league in runs and walks, and only the White Sox have fewer shutouts than Houston’s two.”
  • Tampa Bay leads the series 11-8 overall, and 8-5 in Houston.
  • The Astros entered Thursday with the second-worst average in the league (.240) but the third-most home runs (71).

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win, 6-3

An eighth inning panoramic shot of the Trop, from the friendly confines of The Porch.
An eighth inning panoramic shot of the Trop, from the friendly confines of The Porch.

The Rays, mired in their biggest slump in some time, finally hit their way to victory Wednesday night — taking the last game of the home stand by a score of 6-3 over the Cardinals.

The franchise record streak of scoreless innings sat at 31 innings, when a little luck started to benefit the Rays’ side. James Loney singled on a check swing down the third base line. Ben Zobrist was next, hitting a seeing eye single between shortstop and left field. Matt Joyce, whose OPS has dropped by some 400 points over the last month plus, finally got the Rays on the board — lining a ball up the middle, and driving in two. Michael Wacha loaded the bases on back-to-back walks of Yunel Escobar and Ryan Hanigan, setting up Desmond Jennings who plated two more runs, and gave the Rays a 4-3 lead. Yes friends, a lead!

It was written, “For a change it was the Rays getting the lucky bounces. For a change it was the Rays scoring runs with two outs. For a change it was the Rays actually winning a game.” And my goodness, if the atmosphere of the Trop didn’t take an air of… Fun!

Tampa Bay tacked on a pair of insurance runs in the seventh, thanks to an RBI single to right by Evan Longoria, and sacrifice fly off the bat of James Loney. Kevin Kiermaier scored on Loney’s sac-fly, which wasn’t hit overly deep to left. You can thank The Outlaw’s aggressive base running and speed for the run. For once, every starter reached base, while the team — at 3-7 wRISP on the night — was finally able to make something of its opportunities. Isn’t it amazing what can happen when the team is able to generate runs?!

Starting pitcher Erik Bedard lasted only four innings after giving up three runs on eight hits and a walk. And though he didn’t get hit hard — of the eight hits he allowed, only one went for extra bases — he struggled from the onset. That is, things could have gotten worse hadn’t Joe Maddon made the decision to pull the lefty. Brad Boxberger came on in relief and loaded the bases with two outs, bringing Peter Bourjos to the plate. Bourjos made a valiant attempt to put the Cardinals up by two on a liner to the right-field gap, but Kevin Kiermaier made a tremendous diving catch to rob him of extra bases.

With the Rays ahead by one with two outs in the seventh, Grant Balfour was called upon. The Metallica loving Australian recorded the out to end the inning, coaxing a grounder to short out of Ellis. Balfour pitched a perfect eighth, then came back out to do the same in the ninth — closing out the game, picking up a 2-1/3 inning save on 37 pitches. Balfour may no longer be the closer, but you’d never know it by how dominant he was last night.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Groundhog Day

The horse has been in the stable for 28 innings now. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
The horse has been in the stable for 28 innings now. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

For the sixth time in 13 games, a Tampa Bay Rays’ starter has put up a quality outing, only to be rewarded with a loss. Jake Odorizzi was the mark in the Rays 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, last night. Make no mistake, Odorizzi was very good in his 104 pitch/7.1 inning outing — the deepest he’s ever worked into a major league game. He struck out five, walked only one, and gave up three hits; two singles, and an unfortunate Matt Holiday one run homer on a hanging change-up.

What follows (below) is a recap of sorts, by the numbers. Ian Malinowski put together a more comprehensive recap over at DRaysBay.

3: The number of consecutive shutouts.

2004: The last time an AL team (Kansas City Royals) had been shutout in three consecutive games.

10: The total number of Rays’ shutouts — at the hands of the opposition — this season (AL leading).

28: The number of innings since the Rays scored their last run — extending back to the eighth inning of Saturday’s game. The previous record of 26 consecutive scoreless innings came in 2002, when Tampa Bay went 55-106.

48: The AL record of scoreless innings, held by the 1906 Philadelphia A’s.

25: The difference between runs allowed (68) and runs scored (43) over the last 14 days.

3.07: The number of runs the Rays have averaged (per game) over the last 14 days.

.100: The Rays batting average wRISP in their last 100 opportunities.

0%: Per Joe Maddon, the Rays offensive woes are, “Zero percent is Shelty’s fault,” and he sees no reason for a change.

1.5%: The odds Tampa Bay can put together a postseason run, in any capacity, according to Fangraphs.

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyBSrBqogPY”]

The New What Next

Erik Bedard will close out the series Wednesday night, against Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Rays last victory came last Friday with Bedard on the mound — perhaps he’ll play the role of stopper once again. Wacha has the 90+ fastball, an excellent change-up, and a strong curve. Pitch F/X also identifies some cutters in his profile, which could be remnant sliders, but either way the guy has three strong pitches and a fourth one he can go to on occasion. You can read about the pitching matchup, and more, in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 6/11/14 Starting Lineup

TBA

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays optioned Ali Solis back to Durham, as Ryan Hanigan is set to return from the DL today.
  • (Watch) Party people, the scheduling for our second X-Rays Spex Watch Party of the season is under way! July 18th is the tentative date, when the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Minnesota Twins. More information is to come; start planning accordingly.
  • Your tweets of the day:

Rays 6/10/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

20140610-150519-54319088.jpg
You learn something new every day. Super agent, Scott Boras, started his career in baseball, as a minor league player in the St. Louis Cardinals organization. He played second base for the St. Petersburg Cardinals.

Rays 6/10/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Kiermaier RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Zobrist SS
DeJesus DH
Joyce LF
Forsythe 2B
Molina C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Jake Odorizzi will take the mound tonight, opposite of Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.31 ERA). Despite going 0-1 in his last two starts, the cutter/fastball/sinker/curve ball throwing RHP allowed only two runs over eight innings in his last start without getting a decision against Kansas City. You can read about tonight’s match up, and much more, in our series preview.
  • Your tweets of the day:

The New What Next: Rays vs. Cardinals — A Series Preview of Sorts

The Seattle Mariners cha-cha line, following the Rays 3-0 loss.
The Seattle Mariners cha-cha line, following the Rays 3-0 loss.

It’s always darkest before dawn.
— Spanish proverb

I’m not naive enough to tout the chances of a Rays postseason run. After all, Tampa Bay has gone scoreless in 19 consecutive innings, and are 5-of-their-last-51 wRISP. They’ve also accumulated all of one win in the month of June. Oof — That’s not how you put together a 15-win June.

At this point however, it would be wonderful to see the Rays pull themselves together, and start to play some solid ball. The team has made some solid roster decisions of late — namely designating Josh Lueke for assignment (he cleared waivers, and has been out righted to Durham), relieving Grant Balfour of the closer role, and relying more on Kevin Kiermaier — and the pitching has come around for the most part. What better time than now? With all of this in mind, the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the St. Louis Cardinals into the Trop for a quick two game set.

I know what you may be saying, “The NL champs are going to be tough to beat,” to which I’d be inclined to agree. However, they’ll be tough to beat because both teams are essentially the same. (you can see the numbers below) The equalizing factor, for both teams, is the pitching. For the Cardinals, their two best — Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.31 ERA) and Michael Wacha (4-4, 2.61 ERA) — will take the bump. They’ll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi (2-6, 5.31 ERA) and Erik Bedard (3-4, 3.61 ERA).

St. Louis leads 6-3 overall, and are 4-2 at Tropicana Field. However, Tampa Bay went 2-1 against the Cardinals in their last interleague series at the Trop in 2011. Wainwright, who received a no decision that 2011 series, is 9-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 19 career interleague starts. As Marc Topkin wrote, The Cardinals are 4-6 in interleague play but boast a strong pitching staff. Their 12 shutouts — including Shelby Miller’s second of his career Saturday at Toronto — are the most in club history through 64 games. St. Louis enters this series with only three wins this month and has been plagued by injuries. Closer Trevor Rosenthal’s 16 saves were tied for fifth in the NL entering Monday. Both pitchers the Rays face — RHP Adam Wainwright and RHP Michael Wacha — ranked in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, strikeouts and opponents’ batting average. C Yadier Molina has cooled off after a hot start and is batting .167 this month.”

Both teams pair well with one another, including when runners are in scoring position — Rays .230 BA/.326 OBP/.358 SLG/.683 OPS/15 R vs. Cardinals .238 BA/.325 OBP/.337 OBP/.662 OPS/7 R. Unless Odorizzi gives up the big inning Tuesday night, expect a pair of low scoring games.

Rays and Cardinals series starters.
Rays and Cardinals series starters.
Rays and Cardinals at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Cardinals at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Cardinals, by the numbers.
Rays and Cardinals, by the numbers.

Adam Wainwright: Make no mistake about it, Wainwright is good. Despite going 0-1 in his last two starts, the cutter/fastball/sinker/curve ball throwing RHP allowed only two runs over eight innings in his last start without getting a decision against Kansas City. Wainwright has yielded two or fewer runs in 10-of-13 starts, while boasting 89 strikeouts and only 65 hits against in 93-1/3 innings. Key match ups: David DeJesus (9-25, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (2-6, 2B, 2 RBI), James Loney (10-23, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-3, RBI), Jose Molina (1-2, 2B).

Michael Wacha: What to expect out of Wacha… John Sickels of Minor League Ball writes, Wacha has the 90+ fastball, an excellent change-up, and a strong curve. Pitch F/X also identifies some cutters in his profile, which could be remnant sliders, but either way the guy has three strong pitches and a fourth one he can go to on occasion. His command is excellent, his mound presence is first-class, and it looks like he should be durable.” Brad Johnson of Fangraphs goes on, His pitch usage chart (slow) shows that he likes to get ahead with the fastball and move to the change-up. Because Wacha was new to the league, it is my suspicion that Yadier Molina presented him with a straight forward game plan. Change-up artists usually mix their pitches uniformly so as to remain as unpredictable as possible.” Replace cutter with splitter, and the Rays are, for all intents and purposes, facing Alex Cobb.

Michael Wacha pitch usage chart. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
Michael Wacha pitch usage chart. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)

Noteworthiness

  • Evan Longoria has warmed up with 10 hits in 27 at-bats. He, however, went 0-for-7 in his last two games.
  • James Loney was 4-for-14 with three walks in the last series against Seattle and leads the team with 15 doubles and 30 RBI.
  • Catcher Ryan Hanigan (right hamstring) is eligible to return June 11.
  • Cardinals LF Matt Holliday (lower back) missed Sunday’s game and 2B Kolten Wong (shoulder) could return after sitting out the last three contests.
  • St. Louis 3B Matt Carpenter is 33-for-86 over the last 21 games, raising his average from .256 to .299.
  • The Rays turned to a 77-year-old rainmaker from the Seminole Tribe, to try to stop their slide, inviting him to work his wonders at Tropicana Field. “I guess this guy made it rain in Tampa in the mid ’80s at some point, so he’s got some supernatural powers,” manager Joe Maddon said. “If it rains in the Trop, I’ll be really impressed.” For the record, it rained outside but stayed dry inside the dome.