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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Odorizzi Leads the Rays to A 2-1 Victory

Jake Odorizzi pitches during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Call me neurotic, but every time Tampa Bay loses a game I slip into worry mode, with my biggest fear being the Rays are going to regress back into the team with inconsistent performance on the field. And though that may not be the best way to enjoy the team I love, it’s been my uncomfortable approach to the Rays since 2011.

To be fair, that approach hasn’t been unwarranted.

And despite my better judgement, when they lost Sunday afternoon, I worried that the Rays were starting down an unproductive path back to the bottom of the AL East. However, Tampa Bay — behind an excellent seven inning start by Jake Odorizzi — was able to walk away with the series opener Monday night. Both Odorizzi and Kyle Lohse were impressive in what would go down as a duel. Both worked quickly and matched one another until the Rays took the lead in the sixth.

Lohse kept the Rays off balance all night by varying his four-pitch repertoire — striking out six over six innings, though he did walk three batters. His pitches had a ridiculous amount movement, something that was even noticeable from where I sat in the outfield. But Odorizzi was better.

It has been fun watching young Jake evolve with the progression of the season. Where he once struggled with pitch efficiency, Odorizzi needed just 91 pitches to work through seven innings — an average of 13 pitches per inning. More impressive, 71% of the pitches he threw were strikes. Odorizzi rung up five and walked none, giving up only three hits in the process.

The Rays’ righty has relied upon his plus curve ball of late, yet he tossed only two curves the entire night. Odorizzi instead relied on his slider — tossing it 20 times to go with 25 splitters and 44 fastballs (per Brooks Baseball).

Screen Shot 2014-07-29 at 12.07.57 PM — Jake Odorizzi’s pitching statistics. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Jake Odorizzi made one costly mistake last night — leaving an 89 mph fastball over the heart of the plate to Mark Reynolds. The result was predictable.

This isn’t to say there weren’t any close calls for Odorizzi. As a team, the Brewers swing the bats hard and hit a lot of fly balls. Kevin Kiermaier found himself with his back against the wall in right on a couple of different occasions, and Khris Davis clobbered two towering fly balls that easily could have left the yard under different circumstances.

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Situational statistics can be a good predictor of things. The stats say if Tampa Bay doesn’t do anything early in the game, the odds are good they’ll make something happen in the fifth or sixth innings. The Rays combined slash line jumps from .243 BA/.320 OBP/.373 SLG/.693 OPS in the first inning, to .277 BA/.346 OBP/.410 SLG/.756 OPS in the sixth. Not so ironically, the Rays made their offensive breakthrough in the bottom of the sixth inning.

With two outs, Ben Zobrist drew a five-pitch walk, bringing Matt Joyce to the plate. Joyce lined an outside fastball up the third base line for a base hit, allowing Zobrist to advance to third. Despite looking bad in his first two plate appearances against Lohse, Evan Longoria stepped up to the plate determined to put Tampa Bay on the board (and then some). Though he didn’t get anything good to drive, Longo worked a disciplined at bat, accepting a walk to load the bases for James Loney.

Loney didn’t disappoint. He hit an inside fastball over the infield and into right-center, plating two runs — all the Rays would need.

Yunel Ecobar attempted to put together an inning in the bottom of the seventh, but Jose Molina happened. As Ian Malinowski (of DRaysBay) wrote,

Yunel Escobar lined a high fastball from Jared Jeffress the other way for a single. That was good. Then Jose Molina tried to bunt and did so badly, fouling it backwards. On the next pitch, he tried to bunt again, doing so back to the pitcher. Jeffress picked it up, turned, and threw to second base in time to get Escobar. With Molina running, it was a sure double play.

Here’s why the Rays should never have Jose Molina bunt in that situation again. It’s a true sacrifice with no upside and extra downside. When most players bunt, there is a chance that they might beat the throw out, or that they force a fielder to rush and he makes a mistake. There is, at least, very little chance of a double play. If the opposing team tries for the lead runner, they risk not getting any outs. But with Molina running, it’s essentially a free pass to try for that lead runner. If you get him, double play. If you don’t oh well, go get the out at first.

The dominant late inning duo of Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee blew the Breweres away over the last two innings. They combined to ring up five of the six batters they faced. Rays win, 2-1!

The New What Next

The Rays start the day with a 15.5% chance of a postseason berth (ahead of the Yankees), 7.0 games out of first in the AL East, and 4.5 games back in the AL Wildcard race. Alex Cobb will take aim at their fifth consecutive series win against former Ray Matt Garza. Allow me to take you back to 2013, when Tampa Bay faced former Ray Matt Garza for the first time. The Rays absolutely crushed Garza to the tune of six runs on eight hits in the abbreviated, 4-1/3 IP start. Expect for Maddon to put into place the same game plan that was in place a little less than a year ago — attempt to exploit Garza’s weaknesses (specifically fielding). Whatever it takes to pressure the former Rays and force a meltdown. Incidentally, Alex Cobb toed the rubber opposite of Garza in that game. Cobb led the Rays to a 6-2 win over Texas, in an excellent eight inning outing. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 7/29/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Escobar SS
Casali C
Kiermaier RF
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

Ryan Hanigan, who has been on the DL with an oblique injury, is doing better. Per Marc Topkin, he’s eyeing rehab games with the Stone Crabs this week, with the plan to rejoin Tampa Bay Friday.
The Rays have won 28 of their last 40 games since bottoming out at 24-42 on June 10.
Your tweet of the day:

Amazing stat from @msimonespn: Since 5/20 infield 1B by Punto, LHB vs. #Rays Boxberger are 0 for 40 with 22 K, 3 BB pic.twitter.com/bq1Dk5toKu

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 29, 2014

Rays 7/28/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

Rays 7/28/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist LF
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Escobar SS
Molina C
Kiermaier RF
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

As we mentioned earlier, the Rays designated Erik Bedard for assignment in order to clear roster space for right-hander Joel Peralta, who has been reactivated from the disabled list, the team announced. Per Marc Topkin, the Rays confirmed Peralta had the chikungunya virus.
Don’t forget to check out our Rays/Brewers series preview.

The Economics Behind the Decision to Buy or Sell David Price, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Joyce (Reposted from DRaysBay)

David Price reacts after his inning ending 10th strike out of the night, against the Boston Red Sox Friday (Photo courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

Ian Malinowski of DRaysBay penned the piece below, and I felt that it was important enough to repost on X-Rays Spex.

The Rays enter the week of the trading deadline with one of the more interesting decisions they’ve faced. They can either sell, David Price, Ben Zobrist, and/or Matt Joyce, all three of whom are desirable players with one year after this one remaining of team control, or, they can keep their veterans and perhaps even add small pieces to help in a playoff run.

The FanGraphs playoff odds (which include projections of team strength) currently give the Rays a 13% chance of making the playoffs. That could either go up or down by Thursday.

For this thought experiment, I will assume that the decision to trade Price, Zobrist, and/or Joyce has no bearing on the Rays’ ability to resign them in 2016. For Price, the chance that happens is near-nonexistent. For the other two it is merely unlikely.

The Economics

The dominant force of the the trade-deadline market is the difference between the marginal values of a win for different teams. Vince Gennaro laid out the structure of the system in his iconic book, Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball. If you haven’t read the book, though, don’t worry. Back in 2007, The Hardball Times published a series of articles by Gennaro, laying out the same ideas. You can read them all here. The money totals are out of date (the average cost of a win on the free-market is now around $7 million), but the overall system has changed little.

The basic idea is that every game that a baseball team wins makes them additional money, but this doesn’t happen at a constant rate. A team’s 71 win and or their 101th win might make them only an additional $4 million over what a 70 or 100 win team would make, while their 88th win makes makes them $9 million over an 87 win team would make. The amounts and the slope of the curve is different for every team and depends on the details of their market place, but the basic idea of the win curve APPLIES to every one.

Of special interest is the playoffs. Making the playoffs provides a large monetary boost for teams, both through playoff ticket sales and through future season tickets sales. Therefore, the value of the win that puts a team into the playoffs is dramatically more than the value of the win previous. It’s this imbalance that drives deadline deals. When a player’s production is worth more to a potential buyer than it is to a potential seller at this moment, then a deal sending current wins one direction and future wins in the other is more likely to get done.

Note that small-market teams like the Rays both make less money in total, and make relatively less money through the playoffs than do large-market teams, so the Rays are always under some incentive to sell current wins. It’s not a fair system, but it’s what we’ve got.

What Could Be Sold

It’s a given that David Price will be traded at some point before his contract runs out. The only question is when. By the FanGraphs projections, Price has about 1.5 wins above replacement level to offer his team over the rest of the season. Ben Zobrist has 1.7 wins to offer, and Matt Joyce has .8 wins to offer (Matt Joyce’s is more variable than the other two, based on how he is used). I figure that the Rays replacements for Price and Zobrist are pretty close to replacement level, while their replacements for Matt Joyce are somewhat better. This means that all together, those three are a win swing of perhaps three wins.

That’s enough to take the Rays — who are already on the edge — firmly out of playoff contention. Even missing the playoffs, those wins are already on a fairly fat part of the curve. I’m fairly certain that to the Rays, those wins are now worth at least the average value of a win, or $7 million. Those same wins would be worth more to teams like the Mariners, who are both a larger market team and who currently have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Let’s guess that those three wins are worth $10 million each to Seattle.

This offseason, Michael Valancius did some work on figuring out the dollar value of prospects. He found that a $21 million value is roughly the equivalent of a Baseball America ranked 41-100 prospect. A $30 million value is a 16-41 ranked prospect. So, for those three together, the Mariners would now be willing to give up Taijuwan Walker (preseason #11 ranked prospect, whose stock has fallen a bit since then) plus the same package they would give for those three players’ 2015 production (Note: this is just an exercise, all three would not likely go to the same team).

So, the difference between trading now, as opposed to trading during the offseason is basically one flawed but potential ace pitcher. Andrew Friedman must weigh that against the value of a potential playoff run. If, in this week, the value of those three players to the Rays goes down (as the chance of a playoff run goes down), he will probably sell. If the value goes up, he will probably not sell. My numbers may be inaccurate, but this is the structure of AF’s decision.

What Could Be Bought

Now, assume for a second that it is Thursday and the Rays have swept the Brewers. Their chance of making the playoffs has gone up, and the value of Price, Zobrist, and Joyce this season evens with the value of those three to potential buyers. Friedman keeps them all. It’s a major GAMBLE that will only pay off if the Rays stay on the fat portion of the win curve.

Major moves are unlikely, but after Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, the entire Rays bullpen can potentially be improved upon. And while those improvements will be small, a they can do important work by maximizing the returns from the investments already made in this Rays team. Luckily for Friedman, the deadline for improving the bullpen with low-risk moves is not Thursday. After Thursday, players can still be traded but they must first be passed through waivers.

As a team on the back end of playoff contention, the Rays are in a perfect spot to make waiver claims for any relievers that become available. In the past, potential impact arms such as Jesse Crain (who did not recover from injury) and Chad Bradford were acquired this way for nearly nothing. That type of player will be on the wishlist once again, and while they will be worthless to the teams selling them, they will be worth a little bit to the Rays, and that valuation difference makes the trade possible. It’s the same interaction as the non-waiver trades writ small.

Either way, this upcoming series could go a long way toward deciding the immediate future of two of the best players in Rays history.

The New What Next: Enter the Brewers — A Series Preview of Sorts

You take the good with the bad. Despite Sunday’s 3-2 loss to the Red Sox, the Rays were able to walk away with their fourth consecutive series win — and series’ wins are the name of the game. (Photo courtesy of Erica Ritter)

Despite the loss in Sunday’s series finale, the Tampa Bay Rays are still in a favorable position — relatively speaking, of course — as they ready themselves for a three-game set against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. As the trade deadline looms, this will be an important series as it relates to the future of Ben Zobrist and David Price with the Rays this season.

The Brewers have led the NL Central every day since April 5 thanks to a solid offense. They are second in the league in runs (464) and home runs (108). Catcher Jonathan Lucroy is sixth in the league with a .310 batting average and leads the NL with a .349 road average, while Ryan Braun tops the league in RBI per at-bats, with one in every 5.5 at-bats. Closer Francisco Rodriguez is third in the NL in saves with 30 (in 34 save opportunities). Overall, Milwaukee is 9-6 in interleague games this year.

There is a caveat, however.

After winning 11 of 15 road games in June, the Brewers are 2-6 away from Milwaukee this month — having been outscored 34-21 on the road in July. To that end, when you look at the overall side by side comparison of the Rays and Brewers at home and away, (respectively; below) one thing becomes clearly obvious: Tampa Bay pairs well with the Brew Crew. What’s more, the Rays have been much more productive over the last 30 days, extending back to the end of June.

If the Rays can continue playing as they have since June 11, this could be a successful series for Tampa Bay. Just remember, series’ wins are the name of the game. Sweeps are the icing on the cake.

Rays and Brewers series starters. (over the last 30 days)

Rays and Brewers offensive production. (at home, away, and over the last 30 days)

Kyle Lohse: It’s been some time since the Rays last faced Lohse (11-4, 3.07 ERA) — three years to be exact. However, in that last meeting, Tampa Bay tagged the 35 year-old RHP for five runs (four earned) in 5-1/3 innings of work. The Rays have put together a healthy combined .294 BA/.339 OBP/.431/.771 OPS slash line against Lohse, over a somewhat small sample size of 57 plate appearances. Averaging seven innings per start this season, the soft tossing sinker/slider/change up/curve ball throwing hurler has been beaten up for four or more runs only three times. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (4-12, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (1-2, HR, RBI), Matt Joyce (1-3, 2B), James Loney (5-18, 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (1-3, 2B), Jose Molina (2-4, BB).

Matt Garza: Allow me to take you back to 2013, when Tampa Bay faced former Ray Matt Garza for the first time. The Rays absolutely crushed Garza to the tune of six runs on eight hits in the abbreviated, 4-1/3 IP start. Expect for Maddon to put into place the same game plan that was in place a little less than a year ago — attempt to exploit Garza’s weaknesses (specifically fielding). Whatever it takes to pressure the former Rays and force a meltdown. Incidentally, Alex Cobb toed the rubber opposite of Garza in that game. Cobb led the Rays to a 6-2 win over Texas, in an excellent eight inning outing. Key matchups: Matt Joyce (2-4, 2B), James Loney (1-3, RBI), Evan Longoria (2-3, RBI), Ben Zobrist (2-2, BB).

Yovani Gallarado: As a team, the Rays have never faced the right handed Gallarado (5-5, 3.57 ERA), though a handful of Rays’ players have faced him when they appeared on other rosters. Eno Saris of Fangraphs writes of the ground ball pitcher,

Only his curve ball rates above-average by both grounders and whiffs. The sinker gets 55% grounders, so that’s good, but no whiffs (3.7%). Same for the four-seamer (45% and 3.4% respectively). The change gets ground balls (58%) but no whiffs (7.4%, 15% is average). Same on the slider (48% but only 11% whiffs). The cutter is probably his slider, but has the same numbers as his slider too. That’s how a pitcher reworks his arsenal to work after losing stuff — Gallardo has the best ground-ball rate of his career. With one pitch that’s all-around good. The arsenal seems to suggest that he can keep up the ground-ball work, for what it’s worth.

Key matchups: James Loney (4-14, 2B, 3 RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

The Rays lead the series overall at 4-2, and are 2-1 at Tropicana Field.
The Rays had their second-longest win streak in franchise history snapped at nine Sunday with a 3-2 home loss to Boston. Rays pitchers posted a 1.33 ERA and the club outscored opponents 48-15 during the streak. “Listen, like I said, this has been a great run we’ve been on. Now we’ve got to start another one-game winning streak tomorrow and try to win another series. We’ve got two really good teams coming in in Milwaukee and the Angels.” — Rays manager, Joe Maddon
The Rays, expectedly, designated Erik Bedard for assignment in order to clear roster space for right-hander Joel Peralta, who has been reactivated from the disabled list, the team announced.
Does anyone else hope Hank, the Brewers team dog, joins the Brew Crew at the Trop this week?

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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Blank Red Sox 3-0, Take Series

Tampa Bay Rays’ Matt Joyce lines an RBI single John Lackey during the first inning, scoring Desmond Jennings from third. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the sinking Boston Red Sox 3-0 Saturday night at The Trop, behind an excellent effort from the bullpen. Grant Balfour, who pitched 1-2/3 shutout innings in relief, received credit for the win, while Red Sox starter John Lackey getting tagged with the loss. Simply put, the Rays are finding ways to win, and the Red Sox are finding ways to lose. Tampa Bay starts the day 3-1/2 out of the Wildcard, and 6-1/2 out of first in the East. They’re now winners of nine in a row — the longest winning streak of the Joe Maddon era.

Things started with two outs in the first, when David Ortiz hit a ground rule double off Jeremy Hellickson. A rather swarthy Red Sox fan reached over the railing in right field, catching Ortiz’s liner in the field of play before it could careen off the railing. If anything, the ball appeared as if it may skim over the top of the fence and leave the yard for a home run. The play was reviewed and the call on the field stood: No home run. Helly struck out Mike Napoli to end the inning with no damage.

The Rays’ offense got off to a quick start in the bottom half of the first, thanks in part to Boston’s defense. With an 0-1 count, Desmond Jennings laid down a bunt that was fielded by Christian Vazquez. Mike Napoli was unable to come up with Vazquez’s throw to first, and the ball ended up in the right field corner. In kind, Jennings — running hard — ended up at third base. Despite John Farrell’s complaints of Jennings interfering with the throw, he remained on third. After Ben Zobrist worked a walk to put men on the corners, Matt Joyce laced an RBI single into right field, giving the Rays an early lead. Though he appeared visibly frustrated — an affect that plagued Lackey all night — Boston’s mouth breathing righty managed to recover and retire the next three batters to limit the damage.

Hilarity ensued, when Brock Holt committed a base running gaffe in the top of the third that helped the Rays end the inning. Holt, who initially reached base on a walk (and moved up to second on a groundout) attempted to score on a weak grounder by Ortiz. James Loney, who was warned that Holt may try to score on a grounder prior to the play, caught Zobrist’s throw from right field. He turned and fired off a throw to Jose Molina, who easily applied the tag in front of the plate to end the inning.

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The Rays were able to extend the lead in the bottom of the fourth inning. Yunel Escobar led things off with a single to left, and moved to second base on a well placed sac-bunt from Molina. With Kevin Kiermaier at the plate, Vazquez rifled off a throw to second in a pickoff attempt of Escobar. Stephen Drew clearly applied the tag to Escobar who was called safe on the field, though the replays showed that he was more than likely out. Farrell initially came out of the dugout but the Red Sox, for whatever reason, elected not to challenge the call. That decision proved costly. Kiermaier plated a run on a single to center, giving the Rays a 2-0 lead.

Though he was able to wiggle out of jams all night — staving off Red Sox threats and runs — Hellickson’s night came to an end with 96 pitches under his belt, in the top of fifth inning, after a two out single by Dustin Pedroia. With the lumbering giant coming to the plate, Maddon called on the lefty Jeff Beliveau to face Ortiz. Papi hit a laser, though right to Loney at first to end the inning.

Boston mounted another threat in the top of the sixth, after Napoli hit a leadoff single and moved to third on a pinch hit single from Jonny Gomes. Neither Escobar or Evan Longoria attempted to collect Gomes’ hit, even though it appeared both could have made a play. The ball rolled out of the infield, allowing Napoli to sprint to third. But Beliveau came back with a strikeout of Stephen Drew for the first out of the inning. Grant Balfour came on in relief and got the Rays out of the jam on a strikeout of Xander Bogaerts, and groundout from Jackie Bradley Jr.

Zobrist tacked on an insurance in the form of a seventh inning solo shot off of Lackey, giving Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead. Though Joyce and Longoria both followed with walks, they were stranded when Loney grounded out to end the Rays’ threat.

Brad Boxberger pitched the eighth inning, and though he allowed a walk to Napoli, he was able to put down the side without allowing a run. The ninth was Jake McGee’s. The Rays relief ace pitched a perfect frame — striking out Bogaerts and Bradley, and getting Vazquez to fly out to end the game; his eleventh save in twelve opportunities.

The New What Next

The Rays will go for their third consecutive sweep (and tenth consecutive win) Sunday afternoon when Chris Archer pitches opposite of Alan Webster who was called up to replace the recently traded Jake Peavy. Webster is described by scouts as being a,

Ground ball pitcher with a lean, projectable frame. Delivery is smooth, but he can short-arm the ball on occasion, losing his release point. Excellent athlete. Fastball sits 92-95 mph and tops out at 98 mph. Shows plus plus sinking movement, with late life. Fringe-average command. Needs improvement spotting up with offering and consistently staying down in the zone. 82-84 mph changeup grades as plus, misses a lot of bats. Shows depth and bottom-dropping action. Generates consistent arm speed when throwing pitch. Also features a solid-average-to-plus 83-87 mph slider, with tight rotation and late bite. Can throw for a strike and bury out of the strike zone. Creates strong wrist rotation. Late break makes it deceptive from the fastball. Both secondary offerings show the ability to miss bats. Mixes in a loopy 73-77 mph curveball at times. Pitch is more of a show me offering designed to steal a strike when the hitter is looking for something else. Aggressive on the mound. Projects as a middle-to-back-end starter at the major-league level.

I’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 7/27/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist LF
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Figueroa 2B
Casali C
Kiermaier RF
Archer RHP

Noteworthines

Rays’ pitchers threw 173 pitches in a combined shutout — they hadn’t thrown more pitches in a shutout prior to last night.
A Rays win today would make Tampa Bay the sixth team in the last 25 years to have a 10-game winning streak and 10-game losing streak in the same season. The other teams: 2008 Indians, 2004 Devil Rays, 1999 Orioles, 1998 Reds, 1991 Mets.