Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Offense Was Productive in Their 10-3 Win

Chris Archer worked through the sixth inning in Saturday night's 10-3 shellacking of the Angels. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Bays)
Chris Archer worked through the sixth inning in Saturday night’s 10-3 shellacking of the Angels. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Bays)

There was a palpable, post trade, feeling of despair that permeated The Trop Friday night. You could feel it in the stands, and though you’d never hear the players make mention of anything of the sort, you could see it in the on field action — the Rays seemed slow, void of spark until the ninth inning. Though the trade was a major blow to the esteem of the 25+ guys in the dugout, at some point they’d have to emerge from the proverbial fog and prove they could still be competitive without Price. That point was last night. The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Los Angeles Angels by a score of 10-3, Saturday night.

The offense came to life — scoring 10 runs on 16 hits — Rays’ starter Chris Archer pitched six innings while recording nine strikeouts, and CJ Wilson allowed six runs in only 1-1/3 innings in his first start since returning from the disabled list.

Brandon Guyer provided the Rays with their first baserunner of the game by working a seven pitch, two out walk in the bottom of the first inning. Evan Longoria gave the Rays an early 2-0 lead by hitting a home run into the left field stands.

The Rays were able to extend their early lead to six runs in the bottom of the second inning. James Loney started the hit show with a one out single to center — extending his on base streak to 21 games. Curt Casali was next, working a free pass and giving the Rays a real threat. Logan Forsythe proved his worth, driving in Loney and moving Casali to third with a single up the middle. With runners on the corners, Desmond Jennings laid down a beautiful bunt back to Wilson who, in a flummoxed state, could neither throw out Jennings at first or Casali at home. Ben Zobrist followed with the second consecutive bunt which loaded the bases with only one out. Guyer ended Wilson’s night early with a two RBI single to center that plated Forsythe and Jennings, giving Tampa Bay a commanding lead. Cory Rasmus came on in relief of Wilson and retired Longoria and Sean Rodriguez to end the inning, but not before the damage was done.

The Angels were able to cut the deficit in half in the top of the fourth by scoring three runs against Archer. Albert Pujols got things started with a seeing eye single that fell in right field for a hit. Archer was on cruise control up to the point, (tossing 14 of 15 first pitch strikes) but his command started to waiver and spiral out of control. After he rung up Josh Hamilton, Archer walked Eric Aybar to put runners on first and second. Howie Kendrick put the Angels on the board, scoring Pujols on a ground rule double to right field and moving both runners into scoring position in the process. LA tacked on two more runs on a David Freese groundout, and a Hank Conger RBI double to right. But Archer finally got out of the inning by striking out Kole Calhoun.

Despite scoring opportunities in the fourth and sixth innings, the Rays wouldn’t put up any insurance runs until the eighth. Logan Forsythe led off the inning with a towering home run to left. Jennings attempted to make up for his egregious at-bat the night prior with his second hit of the night, a single to left. Zobrist followed with his fourth hit of the night, an RBI double to left (he moved to third on an error charged to shortstop Aybar). With first base open, the Angels decided to intentionally walk Longoria, bringing the pinch hitting Matt Joyce to the plate. Joyce did what he couldn’t the night previous, hitting a single to center — scoring Zobrist from third. Yunel Escobar nailed the coffin shut with an RBI base hit of his own, giving the Rays a 10-3 advantage they wouldn’t relinquish.

In the seventh inning, Joel Peralta put together his third consecutive clean outing since returning from the DL, culling a Mike Trout strikeout on a fastball in the process. And while Brad Boxberger ran into one out trouble in the top of eighth after walking Hamilton and Aybar, he was able to end the inning with a pair of Kendrick and Freese strikeouts.

Kiermaier ended the game by himself in the ninth inning with Cesar Ramos on the mound. First he threw Cron out at home after he attempted to score on a Chris Iannetta single to right. Down by seven, the Angels manager called for a review of the play to see if Casali was blocking the plate. The play stood. The game ended when Ramos coaxed a pair of poppers out of Calhoun and Trout, both to Kiermaier in right.

The New What Next

The Rays will go for their third consecutive home series win with Alex Cobb on the hill this afternoon. He’ll be opposed by the Angels ace Jered Weaver. Weaver (11-6, 3.62) — Subway’s all-time best pitchman — is a far cry from his previous ace-like self. I mean, had you told me at the height of his prowess, that he’d relinquish four or more runs, seven times in a partial season, I’d have laughed in your face. But that’s the reality for the tall RHP, whose fastball velocity has been on a constant decline over the last few seasons. The Rays lone 2014 win against The The Angels Angels came against Weaver, in a well pitched, 7 IP/2 ER start. Tampa Bay has posted a productive .284 BA/.333 OBP/.503 SLG/.836 slash line against Weaver, and the Rays will try to continue that success, Sunday. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/3/14 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Zobrist RF
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Forsythe 2B
Molina C
Guyer LF
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Per Marc Topkin, 1B/OF/DH Mike Carp, designated for assignment by Boston, could be of interest. RHP, released by Oakland, probably not. … Since both designated-for-assignment Ps Erik Bedard and Juan Carlos Oviedo can refuse outright assignments to the minors, they have to soon be released or traded. … In what wouldn’t be good news for the Rays, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Red Sox are expected to go hard to sign Shields this winter.
  • Thanks for all the birthday wishes! I guess 30 isnt so bad after all, now all I need is a bday homer, a rays win and some cake to celebrate! — Matt Joyce (via Twitter)

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Hellickson, Rays Fall to Angels 5-3

Screen Shot 2014-08-02 at 9.34.46 AM
(Photo courtesy of AP Photo)

Friday marked the first game of the post David Price era, and boy was it a doozy! I’m obviously lying. In short Jeremy Hellickson gave up four early runs and couldn’t make it through the fifth inning for the third consecutive game, and Tampa Bay — despite scoring opportunities aplenty — couldn’t overcome a two run deficit. Joe Maddon called it a winnable game in his presser following the contest — and it was. But would have, could have, and should have beens don’t count for anything in baseball; The Rays dropped the first game of the series to the Angels by a 5-3 score. Come to think of it, it didn’t deviate much from a typical Rays’ loss even when Price was on the roster.

Bulleted highlights and low-lights follow.

  • Suffice it to say, Jeremy Hellickson didn’t have his best stuff Friday night. Helly was hit hard to the tune of four runs on six hits in 4-2/3 innings of work. He gave up an extra base hit in every inning except the fifth, including a two-run homer to Mike Trout and a solo shot to Josh Hamilton — defying the theory that Hamilton can’t hit anything but fastballs. The much maligned righty left too many pitches over the plate, and the Angels punished him for doing so. Simply put, he doesn’t resemble a major league pitcher right now.
Jeremy Hellickson at-bat outcomes. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
  • James Loney hit a second inning double off the top of the railing in right field. Joe Maddon thought it might be a homer, but the umpires thought otherwise. Upon further review, the umps were correct. Either way Loney ended up scoring that inning so no harm, no foul.

  • The Rays mounted a two-out, two run rally in the fifth inning. With Zobrist on first, Matt Joyce scorched a double down the right field line that could have scored Zo, but for whatever reason it didn’t. Nevertheless the Rays had runners in scoring position, bringing Evan Longoria to the plate. Longo worked a pretty good at-bat before hitting a ball right at David Freese at third. Freese misplayed it, threw it away, and allowed two runs to score. However, Longo collided with the first base umpire Larry Vanover, fell down, and was tagged out at second.

  • Let me first qualify things by saying I would never wish illness upon anyone. That said, I think the 15 days of rest as a result of Joel Peralta’s case of Chickenchimichonga may have rejuvenated him. Peralta’s stuff looks a lot tighter and his control seems on point, as exemplified by a 10 pitch (nine strikes) 1-2-3 eighth. Consider this: Since returning from the DL, Peralta has worked two perfect frames, ringing up four in the process.
  • The Rays loaded the bases with no outs in the ninth, on a Cole Figueroa single, Brandon Guyer walk, and a Kevin Kiermaier infield single. BUT, Desmond Jennings struck out, Zobrist struck out, and Matt Joyce flied to center. Jennings’ timing looked off after he took a breaking pitch for strike one. With that disconnect, Street tossed Jennings a hittable pitch that he fouled off setting up the swinging strikeout. Zobrist almost gets a pass after he went 2-5 on the night with a run. Still, much like Jennings, Zo got a hittable pitch which he fouled off, then struck out swinging. I’m not even going to attempt a dissection of Joyce’s at-bat. I will say, he is slashing .188 BA/.308 OBP/.219 SLG/.526 OPS in high leverage situations this season, with a capital P PATHETIC .031 ISO.
Matt Joyce in high leverage situations. (Screenshot courtesy of Fan Graphs)
Matt Joyce in high leverage situations. (Screenshot courtesy of Fan Graphs)
  • Every time Joyce comes to the plate with runners in scoring position, this song (below) goes through my head:

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SckD99B51IA”]

The New What Next

Chris Archer will try to nudge the Rays back into the win column tonight, opposite of CJ Wilson (8-6, 4.33 ERA). Wilson has been on the DL since incurring an ankle injury at the beginning of July. While his poor, three plus inning outing prior to his placement on the DL can be explained by an ankle issue, his seven starts of four earned runs or more cannot. If I must be fair to the preeminent Head and Shoulders’ sales jockey, his best outing of the year was a doozy of a complete game shutout against… Tampa Bay. Womp womp! Still, I have to think this is a winnable game. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/2/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist RF
Guyer LF
Longoria DH
Rodriguez 3B
Escobar SS
Loney 1B
Casali C
Forsythe 2B
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Per Roger Mooney of the Trib, C Ryan Hanigan is expected to start a rehab stint with the Stone Crabs tonight. Mooney writes, “Hanigan will not play Sunday, catch for the Stone Crabs on Monday, take Tuesday off and catch Wednesday for the GCL Rays. If all goes well, Hanigan could rejoin the team Friday when they begin a three-game series in Chicago against the Cubs.”
  • Mooney also wrote about the false trade rumors surrounding Ben Zobrist, saying, “Zobrist said he was taking a nap Thursday afternoon when a fake Bob Nightengale Twitter account announced he had been traded to the Pirates. His wife, Julianna, was flying home from Los Angeles when she began receiving texts about the trade. “I called my dad and said: ‘Hey, have you seen anything on TV? Because Jules is getting texts from friends,’ ” Zobrist said. “We were getting emails from people asking for tickets in Pittsburgh. She didn’t know if anything was true, and I was trying to find out if it was, so eventually I was like, ‘It’s not true. It’s a false report.’ ”
  • LHP Drew Smyly, acquired from the Tigers in the Price trade, will report to The Trop today. He will wear No. 33 — James Shields’ old number.
  • Your tweet of the day:

Rays 8/1/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

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Rays 8/1/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist LF
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Figueroa 2B
Molina C
Kiermaier RF
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Per Marc Topkin, with the release of reliever Jim Johnson by the Athletics today, don’t be a surprised to see the Rays express interest. Johnson represents a low risk pitcher with a potential upside.
  • New starter LHP Drew Smyly is not expected to arrive at the Trop until Saturday.
  • Longoria and Hanigan both took early BP this afternoon. Myers got some work in the outfield as well.
  • Don’t forget to read our Rays vs Angels series preview. Hell, while you at it, peruse the entire site — there are a slew of updates.

    • The New What Next: The Future is Now, Enter the Angels

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    (Photo courtesy of Schmitty/X-Rays Spex)

    Most of us hoped we’d see David Price on the 25-man roster on this day following the trade deadline, but low and behold he is not. And for those of us who thought the post Price era would commence in 2015, the future is now. We won’t know the ultimate state of  the rotation until Tuesday when Drew Smyly takes the mound for Tampa Bay, so the Rays — as of now — will take the field against the Angels this weekend, void of their biggest supporter in the dugout. David Price was more than just an excellent pitcher, he was an outstanding teammate. The loss is palpable.

    If the Rays are going to maintain the attack on the jugular of their opponents, they will have to brush off their shoulders and move on. I know, that’s easier said than done.

    It’s now up to Alex Cobb, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria to step up to the metaphorical plate, and fill the chasm left in Price’s wake. Cobb said it best,

    The Number one message needs to be is the fact there will no quitting in the clubhouse. We’re not throwing in the white towel.

    Enter the Angels.

    The 64-43 Angels have a commanding 8.5 game lead in the Wildcard race. They enter The Trop on the heels of a series loss at the hands of the Orioles — including a 13-inning contest in Baltimore, Thursday. Though they ended the symbolic first half of the season with an impressive 12-3 run, the Angels have cooled down significantly since the All-Star Break, dropping six of their last 13 with Mike Trout slumping and the offense struggling. That doesn’t mean it will be easy. The Angels, who moved within two games of AL West-leading Oakland, outscored the Rays by an 18-10 margin en route to seizing three of four from May 15-18 in Anaheim. To be fair, the Rays were also in the throes of their worst play at that point.

    The Rays’ bullpen will need to be exceptional over the span of this series. The Angels lay claim to 33 come-from-behind wins (the most in the majors), including 13 from two or more runs, and six from the seventh inning on.

    Rays and Angels series starters. (Over the last 30 days)
    Rays and Angels series starters. (Over the last 30 days)
    Rays and Angels offensive production. (At home, away, and over the last 30 days)
    Rays and Angels offensive production. (At home, away, and over the last 30 days)
    Rays and Angels. (By the numbers)
    Rays and Angels. (By the numbers)

    Matt Shoemaker: Shoemaker (8-3, 4.13 ERA) was very good against the Rays back in May, tossing six innings of one run ball. He’s had some ups and downs since that start, though he’s been pretty good in his last four outings since he yielding eight runs over 4-1/3 innings on June 27. Shoemaker has a legit curve/splitter/slider combination, and an iffy fastball. The whiff rates on his slider (19%) and splitter (24%) are well above average. Moreover, his curve is meh by whiffs (6%) but works as a change of pace that elicits grounders (56% ground balls). He doesn’t have a great overall ground-ball rate, but he tends to go to the curve when he needs a grounder. However, Shoemaker’s velocity on his two fastballs (around 91) is average, and the whiff rates (5% and 5.3% respectively) are not great. His sinker has only gotten 38.3% ground balls over his major league career, too, so it’s a well below-average pitch by results. All this is to say, if the Rays can do what they’re wont to do and work good at-bats, they could bat Shoemaker around. Key matchups: Matt Joyce (1-2, BB).

    CJ Wilson: Wilson (8-6, 4.33 ERA) has been on the DL since incurring an ankle injury at the beginning of July. While his poor, three plus inning outing prior to his placement on the DL can be explained by a lingering ankle issue, his seven starts of four earned runs or more cannot. If I must be fair to the preeminent Head and Shoulders’ sales jockey, his best outing of the year was a doozy of a complete game shutout against… The Rays. Womp womp. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (5-11, 2B, 3 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Sean Rodriguez (7-22, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Ben Zobrist (7-26, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB).

    Jered Weaver: Weaver (11-6, 3.62) — Subway’s all-time best pitchman — is a far cry from his previous ace-like self. I mean, had you told me at the height of his prowess, that he’d relinquish four or more runs, seven times in a partial season, I’d have laughed in your face. But that’s the reality for the tall RHP, whose fastball velocity has been on a constant decline over the last few seasons. The Rays lone 2014 win against The The Angels Angels came against Weaver, in a well pitched, 7 IP/2 ER start. Tampa Bay has posted a productive .284 BA/.333 OBP/.503 SLG/.836 slash line against Weaver, and the Rays will try to continue that success, Sunday. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (6-10, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), James Loney (10-32, 2 2B, 4 RBI), Evan Longoria (5-15, 3 2B, 2 BB), Jose Molina (4-13, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Sean Rodriguez (2-4, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (6-18, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, BB).

    Noteworthiness

    • The Angels lead the season series 3-1, are 86-62 overall, and 38-32 at The Trop.
    • Per the Sports Xchange, “Hellickson pitched well in his second start since returning from elbow surgery in January, scattering five hits over 4 2/3 scoreless innings against Boston on Saturday. The 27-year-old has dominated the Angels in his career, posting a 3-1 mark with a 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while limiting the club to a .207 batting average. Hellickson permitted only four hits in 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his last meeting with Los Angeles in 2013.”
    • James Loney is riding an on-base streak of 19 games and went 4-for-14 with three RBI in the previous series versus the Angels.
    • Now without Price to catch, do any of you think Jose Molina will be held accountable for his horrendous offense?

    The David Price trade: Who is Drew Smyly? (Reposted from DRaysBay)

    25 year-old LHP Drew Smyly. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
    25 year-old LHP Drew Smyly. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

    I wrote a piece on the David Price trade late last night, and included a small write up on the newest Ray, Drew Smyly. Ian Malinowski put together an excellent, detailed primer on the 25 year-old lefty on DRaysBay, and I felt that it should be shared with you.

    Pretend that Drew Smyly has absolutely nothing to do with David Price. Let’s say that he hadn’t been acquired in a trade, at all, but had simply been signed as a free agent to a very cheap four-year deal. What would you think? You would be happy. He’s a pitcher worth having on your team.

    Drew Smyly_00001
    Drew Smyly’s major league career numbers so far. (stats from Fan Graphs)

    It would be easy to over-analyze these numbers, so let’s keep it simple:

    • For a small sample size in 2013, Smyly pitched like a Cy Young contender.
    • For a small sample size in 2012, as in this season, he was not as good but was still valuable.
    • Taken as a whole, Smyly has been an above-average major league pitcher and he’s still only 25.
    • Drew Smyly is a fly ball pitcher.
    • Drew Smyly probably has an average skill to suppress home runs.
    • Drew Smyly probably has an average ball-in-play skill.
    • Drew Smyly, like most major league pitchers, should be expected to produce an ERA of a similar caliber to his peripherals.

    Now let’s look at what Smyly actually throws.

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    via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com

    Fastball – 54% – 91.7 mph Brooks Baseball numbers)

    Drew Smyly leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, and what it lacks in velocity, it makes up for with vertical rise (much like Jake Odorizzi). In fact, it has the fourth most vertical rise of any pitcher in baseball to total 200 innings since 2012. Clayton Kershawis first (if Jake Odorizzi had made the innings cut, he would place third on this list).

    It’s a good thing Smyly has all that rise, because he has very little run on the pitch. Here, for comparison, is the movement of the four-seam fastballs for each of the current Rays starters and Price.

    Starters4-seam
    (Data and classifications courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

    Smyly’s fastball is really a lot like Odorizzi’s, only with a touch more velocity and a touch more rise, from the other side of the mound. The Rays have been able to turn Odor’s version into a swing-and-miss pitch, so I imagine Smyly’s will do just fine in Tampa Bay.

    Curve – 23% – 79.8 mph

    Paired with the vertically rising fastball are a whole slew of vertically falling secondary offerings. The most commonly used one is his curve ball, which he goes to as his strikeout pitch against both right-handed and left-handed batters. Righties have whiffed at it in 32% of their swings, while lefties have missed a full 29% of the time.

    There’s something bizarre about Smyly’s curve, though, that I didn’t realize it until I started plotting it with everyone else’s. In these graphs, all starters curves are plotted as if they were left-handed. That means that the right handed pitchers have their horizontal movement flipped. One of these things is not like the others:

    StartersCurves_medium

    Yes, that is a left-handed starter who’s curve moves to the right. Glove-side movement on a breaking ball.

    That’s weird. I’d be lying if I said that I knew what it meant in terms of translating the movement into results.

    Also, notice that his curve doesn’t have a ton of vertical drop. I would have said it was a slider, if not for the fact that its velocity is below 80 mph. Frankly, if I just saw this pitch on a spreadsheet, I’d call it a very good splitter. Bizarre.

    Slider/Cutter – 23% – 86.4 mph

    Okay, so this one is also weird. Brooks Baseball calls it a cutter, but it’s not the usual kind.

    Generally, a pitcher’s cutter is a touch slower than his fastball, and has either slightly less horizontal movement, or some horizontal movement in the other direction. Very good cutters will occasionally have a touch of downward movement as well, but it’s still basically a variation on the fastball.

    Drew Smyly’s “cutter” breaks vertically completely from his fastball. In this graph, I’m comparing it to the other Rays’ starters sliders and cutters.

    StartersSlidersCurves_medium

    Yes, that’s cutter movement in relation to other sliders and cutters, but it’s slider movement in relation to Smyly’s fastball. Once more, I don’t really know what to think of the pitch, but I do know that it works. He throws it to batters of both handedness, and he it produces a whiff 27% of the time it’s offered at. Moreover, when it’s put in play, it becomes a ground ball 58% of the time, making it a pretty extreme groundball pitch hiding in the repertoire of a flyball pitcher.

    Changeup – 6% – 85 mph

    This is Smyly’s worst pitch by a long shot, and it’s not all that impressive.

    ChangeupsSplitters_medium

    It has less movement than any of the other Rays changeups or splitters. Furthermore, it’s movement is not very distinct from his cutter, a problem that no other pitchers I’ve examined have. I doubt this becomes a big part of Smyly’s arsenal, at least without major work.

    Conclusion

    On the whole, Smyly is a pretty unique pitcher. I wouldn’t be confident looking at his repertoire and making a prediction, but luckily for the both y’all and the Rays, you don’t need me to. He already has over a full season’s worth of major league innings, and he was pretty successful. That success surely is due in part to his unusual stuff, and in part to the very good command he’s reported to have.

    Smyly is left handed, but he is not David Price. It’s not an exact replica of the arsenal, but a slightly more effective Jake Odorizzi is a close comparison. Smyly could be a very good pitcher for the next four years of his remaining service time with the Rays.

    Can we all make an attempt not to hold the details of his acquisition against him?