The New What Next: Rays Head to Toronto for Three — A Series Preview of Sorts

tumblr_naoa8oEKrK1s37o6ho1_1280
Kevin Kiermaier preserved the shutout with an excellent diving catch in the eighth inning. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Rays closed out their home stand with a 1-0 win against David Price and the Detroit Tigers. For Tampa Bay, the team has now been involved in a major league leading 31 shutouts (16 wins) this season — six of which came by a 1-0 score. For the first time in franchise history, the Rays won a game while amassing only one hit — the first in 1,257 overall games.

If I may, this is exactly what I wanted to see out of the game — a Rays win, and dominant outings by both Alex Cobb and David Price. For Price, he became the first pitcher in the Majors to toss a complete-game one-hitter (or better) with no earned runs and lose since Andy Hawkins pitched a no-hitter in defeat for the Yankees on July 1, 1990. The only other pitcher to do it in the last 40 years is knuckleballer Charlie Hough for Texas on June 16, 1986. Price did so without allowing a walk, becoming the first pitcher to do so in the last 100 years.

Oh yeah, that run saving diving catch mentioned in the caption above? It was a doozy!

Moving forward.

The Rays will start a three game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Friday. Tampa Bay has been disappointing of late, dropping four of its last six games to the Yankees and Tigers (respectively) in two ugly, ugly series losses. Yet things in Toronto haven’t been all that peachy for the Jays either — John Gibbons’ ball club has won only one series in the month of August.

If you subscribe to the idea that the Rays still have a shot at a postseason berth (Fangraphs puts them at a 1.4% chance), this series — as with those before and after — could prove to be critical. Both teams are hungry — Toronto is four games back and the Rays stand seven out — yet both have hit a downward spiral. Despite scoring 22 runs in a three-game home sweep of Tampa Bay in late May, the Blue Jays are dead last in the majors in scoring this month (56).

Rays and Blue Jays series starters (over the last 30 days).
Rays and Blue Jays series starters (over the last 30 days).
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).
Rays and Blue Jays (by the numbers).
Rays and Blue Jays (by the numbers).

Marcus Stroman: Stroman yielded five runs without getting out of the first inning last Friday. However, the 23-year-old rookie has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of 14 starts, and completed at least six innings in 10 starts. He is 5-1 at home with a 2.70 ERA as opposed to the road (2-3, 6.33). Per his scouting report on BaseballAmerica.com, his change up still needs work, though his fastball and slider appear ready for the big time.

Mark Buehrle: Buehrle (11-8, 3.38 ERA) has struggled since soaring to a 10-1 start with a 2.10 ERA through his first 12 starts. In 13 starts since, he has a 4-7 record with a 4.76 ERA. Still, he has been a menace to the Rays this season, posting a 2-0 record while yielding only five runs in 20-1/3 innings of work. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (6-21, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (5-7, 2 2B, BB), Desmond Jennings (8-19, 2B, RBI, 4 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-1), James Loney (6-24, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (10-33, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Jose Molina (13-41, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 6 BB), Sean Rodriguez (7-24, 3 2B, 4 RBI), Ben Zobrist (8-21, 2B, 3 RBI, BB).

Drew Hutchison: Hutchison (8-11, 4.81 ERA) was at his best against the Rays in his first start of the season, back on April first. Since he’s yielded 11 earned runs in 10-1/3 innings of work, for an overall 5.96 ERA against Tampa Bay. Hutchison is coming off a seven inning against the White Sox which he was tagged for eight hits and seven runs. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (2-6, BB), Brandon Guyer (1-3), Desmond Jennings (3-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (2-7, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2, 2B, RBI, BB), James Loney (3-5, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Jose Molina (1-3, RBI).

Noteworthiness

  • Matt Joyce is 11-for-24 with five doubles and seven RBI against Toronto this season.
  • The Rays pitching staff has produced the second best ERA (2.64) in the AL since August 1.
  • Ben Zobrist has played exceptionally well in the second half of the season, posting a .324 batting average and a .412 on-base percentage while scoring 22 runs.
  • Jose Reyes, who is batting .406 his last 14 games.
  • Edwin Encarnacion recorded a homer and three RBI in five games since returning from the DL.
  • Jose Bautista has reached base in 27 straight games — 22 with a hit — and 111 of 120 overall this season.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Blanked, 6-0

Wil Myers heads back to the dugout after striking out against Rick Porcello during the fifth inning, Wednesday. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Wil Myers heads back to the dugout after striking out against Rick Porcello during the fifth inning, Wednesday. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Recently someone reminded me that baseball is a season of work, not a season of segments. And while I agreed with his overall sentiment, I felt the need to contend the point.

I argued, though a team — say the Rays — will invariably be judged on its overall record, that overall records isn’t enough to give an accurate impression of a team at any place and time. The overall record doesn’t speak to a teams’ peaks and valleys, it doesn’t take into account hot and cold streaks, and it doesn’t take into account consistent and inconsistent play.

Yet regardless of how well a team performs over a segmented span of time, it will not be rewarded with a postseason berth unless that play is wholly consistent. That is, while the Rays played excellent baseball from June 11 to August 15, they dug themselves too deep of a hole at the beginning of the season, and they seem to be doing the same now. Wednesday night’s game was indicative of that.

Rick Porcello held Tampa Bay to only three hits in a 6-0, complete game shutout — the Rays’ 15th shutout of the season. They looked like the team of June 9, not the team of July 4. The at-bats were ugly, the misplays were egregious — a lack of communication between Escobar and Zobrist* on a first inning grounder to short allowed Cabrera to reach first base, Kiermaier then allowed Miggy to go from first to home on a ball he let roll to the wall, Longo couldn’t field a ready made infield grounder on a hop, and the usually sure handed Loney lost a foul popper in the lights — and they’re just not playing with the Joie de vivre they had for the last two months.


Source: FanGraphs

To be honest, it wouldn’t matter if the Rays were beat by a score of 1-0, 6-0, or 10-0, there is no way possible they could have won the game without scoring at least a run. Blame Jake Odorizzi and Kirby Yates all you want for yielding six, two-out runs, however, their offensive impotence shouldn’t be forgotten — mind you, only three Rays reached base. Not to discredit Porcello, he was excellent. However, his strikeouts — especially the caught looking variety — were in hittable locations. To me, that speaks to the funk the Rays have placed themselves in. Simply put, if you get beat on pitches you should have hit, then you’re left with a box score like that of Wednesday night’s game.

Those pitches, hand side and high, should have been swatted at. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Those pitches, hand side and high, should have been swatted at. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

…And so it goes.

The New What Next

Alex Cobb will take on former Ray David Price this afternoon at the Trop. In spite of his okay 1-0 record in three starts with the Tigers, expect Price to pitch with maximum piss and vinegar. You can read about the matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/21/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist RF
Guyer LF
Longoria 3B
Myers DH
Rodriguez 1B
Escobar SS
Casali C
Forsythe 2B
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Gary Shelton of the Times writes, “Then there has been Balfour. And, man, does it feel as if his fingerprints are all over this mess. For a guy who was supposed to turn out the lights on the opposing batting order, Balfour has spent a season in the darkness. Talk about a bad year. He has lost leads, he has lost control, and he has lost ownership of the Rays’ closer position. And, as it so happens, he has lost the crowd.”
  • Quote of the day, “I’m not looking forward to it. Pitching against friends is always the worst.” — David Price, on facing his former team this afternoon.
  • The Ray are the first AL team since 1976 (Angels, Orioles, and Rangers with at least 15 shutouts for their hitters and pitchers in same season.
  • Just one day left until our next watch party. Hope to see all of you tomorrw, at Green Bench Brewing Company!

newwatchpartysmall

*Lest we forget the missed communication between these two, in Sunday’s series finale against the Yankees.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Fall in Extra Innings, 8-6

David Price smiles from the dugout as he notices a tribute video dedicated to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays playing on the video boards during the second inning. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
David Price smiles from the dugout as he notices a tribute video dedicated to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays playing on the video boards during the second inning. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Optimism will make you suffer fools gladly. I’m holding out for you to do the right thing, emphatically.

— American Steel

When you go into things with lowered expectations, anything above and beyond that low water mark feels like a godsend. Case in point, the Rays against the Tigers reigning Cy Young Award winner, Max Scherzer. Tampa Bay took an unexpected four run lead against the uncharacteristically jittery Scherzer before he could settle in. And though he would go on to retire 16 of the last 19 hitters, Chris Archer was given ample an ample four run lead to play with.

With the task of preserving the early lead, Archer looked great in the front four innings. He racked up the majority of his strikeouts in the front four, and effectively worked through a pair of RISP situations. Things were rolling, the Rays tagged a pitcher who’s posted a 1.98 ERA over the last 30 days with four runs, and this weird feeling crept upon me… I believe it’s called optimism.

…Then the fifth and sixth innings happened.

Archer yielded four runs (three earned) on three hits, an error, and two walks which allowed the Tigers to get back into the game. Two innings later, Joel Peralta gave up the go-ahead run to JD Martinez, who promptly deposited a center cut breaking pitch over the center field wall. The Rays were able to knot the game at five runs apiece in the eighth, yet Grant Balfour did what he’s wont to do in the 11th — allow hitters to reach via the free pass, and give up the winning runs.

With the Rays down by three, it was up to the top of the order (Kevin Kiermaier included) to tag Joe Nathan with at least three runs in the bottom of the inning. They were able to scratch out a run with two outs, however Sean Rodriguez went down swinging to end the game — stranding the tying runs on first and second.

In the end, no one expected the Rays to get anything off Scherzer. In kind, I’d imagine a similar expectation was placed upon Archer. That they were able to get four runs off the Tigers ace only makes this bitter pill that much harder to swallow. They had the victory within reach, yet the pitching failed.

I live blogged the game in its entirety over at our Tumblr page. Want to agonize over this disheartening loss in all of its blow-by-blow glory? Click the link where you’ll be regaled with this heartbreaking tale of woe.

Click the screenshot to be redirected to our Tumblr page.
Click the screenshot to be redirected to our Tumblr page.

The New What Next

As I alluded to in our series preview, neither team should expect a smooth ride against the other over the course of the series. And it’s not going to get any easier tonight when Jake Odorizzi takes the mound against Rick Porcello and the Tigers. Tampa Bay beat up Porcello (13-8. 3.28 ERA) to the tune of seven earned runs in 5-2/3 innings during their 7-3 win against the Tigers back at the beginning of July. He, however, has pitched well since, giving up three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. His start against the Rays, as well as his six run (five earned), 10 hit outing Friday stand as the exception to his season, not the rule. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/20/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers DH
Escobar SS
Casali C
Kiermaier RF
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Of Chris Archer’s five walks, four came against the 7-8-9 hitters in the Tigers lineup. What BA mentioned in the broadcast is true, his numbers increase across the board against the bottom of the order. The only other troublesome spot in the order for Archer is the number three hitter. Though Archer was able to keep Cabrera at bay for the most part, he certainly set up the top of the order for success — four of the seven Tigers’ runs batted in came from the first four hitters.
  • Thank you for everything, David Price:

  • The Tampa Bay Rays activated Wil Myers from the DL, corresponding by optioning Belnome to Durham, and moving Jerry Sands to the 60-day DL. By moving Sands to the DL, the Rays are able to keep Kevin Kiermaier on the 25-man roster. Myers is expected to see time both in left and right field (and DH), and play pretty much every day.
  • Friend of the blog, DRaysBay’s Daniel Russell wrote an interesting piece on how to improve the Rays roster. His suggestions included hitting Evan Longoria third (I’ve been saying that all season), platooning James Loney when there’s a tough lefty on the mound, ending the Grant Balfour experiment, and keeping Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup. You can read his piece via the link above.
  • There have been five bases-loaded walks in extra innings this season in the majors — three of them have beenby the Rays (Ramos, Balfour and Reifenhauser).
  • Everybody’s workin’ for the weekend… Only two more days until our next watch party. See you at Green Bench!

newwatchpartysmall

Rays 8/19/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

10616203_10152388626368429_6484916893700474102_n

Rays 8/19/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Belnome DH
Casali C
Kiermaier RF
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Per Roger Mooney, Ryan Hanigan said his oblique has been pain free for a couple of days, and he expects to start minor league rehab Wednesday or Thursday.
  • Additionally, David DeJesus said his hand felt fine today, and he expects to play tomorrow with Stone Crabs. He thinks he can return some time next week.
  • The Rays will show a short video tribute to David Price in second inning tonight.
  • Don’t forget to check out our series preview if you haven’t already. If you have, do so again.

The New What Next: Enter Le Tigre — A Rays/Tigers Series Preview of Sorts

Yunel Escobar #11 of the Tampa Bay Rays collides into teammate Ben Zobrist #18 of the Tampa Bay Rays and drops the ball during the eight inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field on August 17, 2014 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Scott Iskowitz/Getty Images)
Yunel Escobar collides into Ben Zobrist and drops the ball during the eighth inning Sunday. (Photo courtesy of Scott Iskowitz/Getty Images)

Note: I fully realize this series preview is a bit bare bones. I’ll continually update things as the day progresses.

Following their lackluster 4-2 loss Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays will open a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers, Tuesday. The Rays’ two run, five hit offensive showing in the series finale may have been one of the most uninspiring exhibitions at the plate in some time, though it certainly didn’t come as a surprise — offensive production has been on the slide over the last three weeks or so. Are you confused how a team could drop a series after yielding a total of seven runs? Their .205 series batting average should clear up any residual befuddlement.

On the other hand, the Tigers are coming off a less-than stellar 3-2 home stand which included an 8-1 mauling by the Seattle Mariners, Sunday. For Detroit, former Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and David Price — along with Rick Porcello — will battle against Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Cobb. If a series loss seems like a foregone conclusion, three things could play in the Rays favor:

  1. Archer, Odorizzi, and Cobb are three excellent starters.
  2. The Tigers are 6-9 in their last 15 contests.
  3. The Tigers have averaged just 3.33 runs per game in that span.

Neither team should expect a smooth ride against the other. Both teams feature excellent pitching, and some pretty poor offensive numbers of late. The only certainty is that runs will be at a premium this week.

Rays and Tigers series starters (over the last 30 days).
Rays and Tigers series starters (over the last 30 days).
Rays and Tigers offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).
Rays and Tigers offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).
Rays and Tigers (by the numbers).
Rays and Tigers (by the numbers).

Max Scherzer: What is there to say about Scherzer (15-4, 2.98) that hasn’t already been said? As if his overall ERA wasn’t good enough, he’s posted a 1.90 ERA (and 2.34 FIP) over the last 30 days. Scherzer actually summed his stuff up well following his 14 strikeout outing against the Pirates, “When I’m getting that many strikeouts early, it means I’ve throwing all four of my pitches, I’m getting hitters into the kill-zone counts and I’m putting them away. When that’s happening, I know I’m probably going to have a good day.” In his lone start against Tampa Bay (this season), Scherzer held the Rays to one run on two hits and one walk over eight superb innings. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (11-33, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), James Loney (6-23, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB). 

Rick Porcello: Tampa Bay beat up Porcello (13-8. 3.28 ERA) to the tune of seven earned runs in 5-2/3 innings during their 7-3 win against the Tigers back at the beginning of July. He, however, has pitched well since, giving up three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. His start against the Rays, as well as his six run (five earned), 10 hit outing Friday stand as the exception to his season, not the rule. Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (5-14, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), James Loney (4-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Jose Molina (2-8, 2B), Sean Rodriguez (3-9), Ben Zobrist (3-11, RBI).

David Price: In spite of an okay 1-0 record three starts with the Tigers, expect the Rays former ace to pitch with maximum piss and vinegar in the series finale, Thursday.

Noteworthiness

  • Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times writes, “The Tigers are 8-9 since obtaining Rays ace David Price at the July 31 trading deadline. Price picked up his first win as a Tiger on Saturday night, allowing one run over eight strong innings against the Mariners. Detroit has a loaded pitching staff, but don’t ignore its hitters. Miguel Cabrera’s double Saturday night was his league-leading 40th of the year. Victor Martinez is hitting .365 with 15 RBIs in 17 games this month. He’s third in the league with a .326 batting average this season. Key stat: The Tigers lead the AL in batting (.273), hits (1,150), doubles (251) and slugging (.426). They’re 33-27 on the road and 4-6 in extra-inning games.”
  • The Tigers lead 61-59 overall, while the Rays lead 30-29 at home.