Jose Reyes is thrown out asfirst baseman Logan Forsythe makes the catch during first inning of a baseball game, Wednesday. (Photo courtesy of Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)
Rays 4/16/15 Starting Lineup
DeJesus DH
Souza Jr. RF
Cabrera SS
Longoria 3B
Jennings LF
Dykstra 1B
Forsythe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP
Catcher J.P. Arencibia has agreed to a minor-league deal with the The Tampa Bay Rays. He’ll head to Triple-A Durham and used as depth at catcher and first base. One can’t help but wonder if he may fill one of the holes in the roster left in the wake of John Jaso and James Loney’s placement on the DL. Then again, I can’t see Arencibia in the lineup on a daily basis, or more often than David DeJesus – though he can hit homers, his OBP leaves a lot to be desired.
Arencibia, 29, was released by the Orioles last week despite his home run power — a rarity among catchers. Yet he, like Jaso, is not really good enough to carry much all-around value. It was noted elsewhere, his defense is shaky, he’s a career .207 hitter, and his ghastly 462/84 K/BB ratio has led to a .255 on-base percentage.
Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote a scathing piece on Erasmo Ramirez, saying, “The primary reason the Rays are above .500 has been the tremendous work of their injury-depleted pitching staff. Now if they could just erase Erasmo.” Topkin continued, “The Rays knew it was a gamble starting erratic Erasmo Ramirez on Wednesday, and it failed miserably in a 12-7 loss to the Blue Jays that snapped their four-game win streak. Ramirez was really no better than in his first outing for the Rays on Friday, allowing nine runs (seven earned) on eight hits and three walks over 31/3 innings, though his ERA actually went down, from 31.50 to a not-quite-tidy 23.63.” Not being one to advocate eating ones contract, I’d have to say I’d wholeheartedly agree with dumping Ramirez — quality change-up or not.
On that note:
#Rays Cash said rotation still a mystery past Archer, Karns and Odorizzi.
Manager Kevin Cash Cash said James Loney could return Wednesday when he is eligible to come off the DL. On the other hand, John Jaso still has swelling in his wrist and cannot resume swinging until that goes away. Cash told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) that Jaso is not close to returning.
Nick Franklin isn’t progressing as quickly as previously thought. The Rays hoped he would begin his rehab assignment this week, though that is not the case.
Steven Souza Jr. celebrates with Asdrubal Cabrera after the Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 on Monday, April 13, 2015. (Photo courtesy of Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)
With the first week-and-a-half of play in the rear-view mirror, the 2015 Tampa Bay Rays have proven to be a somewhat confounding team. While the win/loss record might not indicate what we should expect out of the team over the next 152 games, we have learned a little about the Rays in the previous 10 games.
1. The Rays are fragile.
The Rays lead baseball in the number of players injured, with nine active players currently on the disabled list, some of which sustained injuries within the first three games of the season. These nine players account for more than a third of the payroll, per Marc Topkin.
Matt Silverman calls the situation “discouraging,” while clarifying “but we’re not discouraged.”
2. A walk is a hit.
What do Jennings, Longoria, Forsythe and Souza have in common? They’ve been rewarded with a good number of walks (at least four each) thanks to their patience in the batter’s box.
Sure, walks make for boring baseball, unless your thing is confounding pitcher. However, a fair number of their 28 total runs are due in part to the ability to work a quality at-bat. Besides, I cannot recall another team that scored six runs in one week, all via the bases loaded walk. The Rays are currently ranked second in walks, and in the top five in pitches seen per at-bat.
At the time of writing, the team slashed a combined .232 BA/.331 OBP/.397/.728 OPS/.323 wOBA line with 69 hits, 42 walks and three HBP. The current OBP leaders on the team are: David DeJesus, Brandon Guyer, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr., Logan Forsythe and Desmond Jennings.
3. The Rays can pitch…except when they can’t.
Tampa Bay improved from a 4.17 ERA and 3.45 FIP at the time I originally wrote this piece, to 3.48 ERA and 3.41 FIP. Yet they start the day with a 4.26 ERA and a 3.92 FIP, largely due to a pair of very poor starts by Erasmo Ramirez. That’s not to say the whole pitching staff is in peril, after all 65 strikeouts and a 7.28 K/9 are pretty good omens. While the pitching staff gave up five or more runs in four of the first nine games, shutouts by Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer, combined with quality starts by Nathan Karns (among others) illustrate what this pitching staff can do when it is healthy and firing on all cylinders.
…Now to figure out what to do with Ramirez.
4. This team is resilient.
Despite losing games to the Orioles, Marlins and Blue Jays in contests that were initially blowouts, the Rays rallied to make things interesting. Moreover, they’ve shown a tendency to answer a team when it scores by adding to their own run total (see: the Rays performance in the Citrus Series).
Furthermore, this team is entertaining and fun again — something that can’t be said for the 2014 incarnation. Maybe it’s the powerful Steven Souza of defensively sound Kevin Kiermaier. Perhaps it’s the overall cohesive feeling the squad exudes or the slightly faster pace of play. Or maybe it’s all of the above, and then some.
5. A $70 million payroll is untenable (unless it isn’t).
Marc Topkin also reminded us on Sunday what we heard from the owner on the air in the opening series:
Principal owner Stuart Sternberg said the $70 millon-plus payroll is “an area beyond uncomfortable” and “puts us squarely in the red again.
According to Forbes Magazine, the Rays are currently worth $625 million (up 29% from 2014 – also last in MLB), having also accrued an estimated $188 million in revenue (also up from 2014). I’m not here to debate whether the team is or isn’t in the red.
Although with an increase in both team value and revenue, fused with the specter of a greater increase in revenue once a new TV contract is settled, the overall perception seems a bit contradictory.
6. This is no longer Joe Maddon’s team.
Topkin further detailed a few below the radar, yet very interesting, moves made by the Rays’ new regime:
A new team dress code requires collared shirts or a jacket over a T-shirt on travel days and no sneakers. Among other new-regime changes: players on the field for the anthem, and batting practice for day games.
Interestingly enough, manager Kevin Cash left the decision of road-trip attire to a handful of player representatives, including (but not limited to) Evan Longoria and Alex Cobb.
If the players indeed had a part in opting for a more professional approach to things, I can’t help but wonder what their level of appreciation for Joe Maddon’s hijinks may have been.
7. A new trend?
RJ Anderson (of the excellent Process Report blog) proposed an interesting hypothesis on April 9; some relievers appear to have increased their first-pitch fastball tendencies, while others have decreased their usage. I was intrigued by his hypothesis, yet the Rays only played three games at the time of his publishing. I wanted to see how the numbers panned out after gathering a larger sample size. Anderson looked at the first pitch fastball rates for Brad Boxberger, Kevin Jepsen, Ernesto Frieri, Steve Geltz, Jeff Beliveau, Kirby Yates and Grant Balfour (last season and now), and in kind I looked at the same group of hurlers.
Boxberger, Beliveau and Yates increased their usage of the first pitch fastball, while Jepsen, Frieri and Balfour seem to be depending upon their off-speed stuff more often to start an at-bat.
What does this mean? Anderson opines:
…It’s hard to ignore three fastball-first relievers suddenly leaning on their secondaries.
The reason this merits watching is because it wouldn’t be the first time the Rays instructed a pitcher to change his approach. Part of James Shields’ turnaround in 2011 is credited to his willingness to apply data from the front office to his pitching. He started using his curveball as a means to protect his fastball while stealing a strike. There have been other cases where a team-wide philosophy seems to be in play, too—same-handed changeups, elevated fastballs, and so on.
Those examples don’t prove the Rays are up to anything here; they just prove there’s a chance, however slim it may seem, that this is something more than a small-sample mirage.
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Steven Souza Jr. celebrates his solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays with teammates in the dugout during the first inning of a baseball game on Tuesday, April 14, 2015. (Photo courtesy of Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)
Steven Souza Jr. was without a doubt the hero in Tuesday’s contest between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays. Souza got the contest started with a long home run, and then sparked an eighth inning, go-ahead rally with a bunt. The Rays walked out of the Rogers Centre with a 3-2 win; their fourth consecutive W.
Souza opened the scoring in the first with a blast off the facing of the third deck in center-field. ESPN measured the homer at 463 feet — the third longest by a Ray since they began tracking in 2006.
I’ve seen a lot of baseball games here, and that has got to be the furthest ball I’ve ever seen hit, Rays manager Kevin Cash told the media following the game.
The solo shot came on the first pitch Souza saw from rookie Daniel Norris:
It’s fun when it goes like that, Souza said. Have you ever cut butter with a knife? That’s what it feels like.
Souza, who came into the game hitting just .158 on the season (though with a .333 OBP), needed approximately 36 feet to make an impact in the eighth inning. With the score knotted at two, Souza reached on a beautifully bunt single( up the third base line) off reliever Miguel Castro to lead off the frame. One out later, Souza stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by catcher Russell Martin. Castro intentionally walked Evan Longoria to face Jennings, however, that strategy didn’t work out too well for Toronto — Jennings drove a tie-breaking sacrifice fly to center, scoring Souza.
Desmond’s at-bat, to me, was as crucial as they come, Cash said in his post game presser. When you fall behind on that type of stuff, it’s really tough to elevate a pitch.
Otherwise, offensively speaking, Tampa Bay was quiet at the plate. The team wasn’t able to pounce on 13 total base runners, ultimately going 0-8 wRISP. Brandon Guyer added a double in the third though he was left stranded, and Evan Longoria walked three times.
Longoria has collected a .382 OBP thus far, due in large part to his ability to work a good at-bat, and take a walk. Because this is still a very young season, any criticism of Jennings might be undue. And to be perfectly honest, this is more of a critique of his placement in the order. In any case, with only two runs batted on the season, I’m not certain if DesJen is the best player to have hitting behind Longo. We’ve seen how devastating he can be on the base paths (accruing four stolen bases in the last two games), and I just wonder if he isn’t better suited for third in the lineup, just before Evan?
On the other end of the spectrum, Matt Andriese made his first big league start and allowed two runs on five hits in 3-2/3 innings. Mind you, all of this came after only working a pair of single innings the Saturday before the season and last Friday, while also not establishing a firm routine between starts. He also didn’t crack the 80 pitch barrier in Spring Training. All of this is to say that a long start wasn’t expected out of Andriese, who isn’t fully stretched out.
Andriese worked through a two on, two-out jam in the second inning thanks to our good friend sequencing. He got ahead of Russell Martin by spotting two well located fastballs at the bottom of the zone (one on the outside corner, and the other on the inside corner). He came back a high fastball, and Martin took the bait; the Jays’ catcher whiffed mightily to end the inning. Andriese was pulled in the fourth after allowing three consecutive base hits, one culminating in a run.
Erik Hahmann (DRaysBay) touched on Andriese’s start:
He certainly has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues, his battle will be harnessing his control. The command is there. The pitches have the necessary life to them. Whether he ends up in a rotation some day, or, more likely, in a bullpen, he should have a decent career ahead of him if he can add a touch more control.
With the exception of an RBI double allowed by Kirby Yates*, the bullpen pitched very well once again. Yates, Steve Geltz, Grant Balfour, and Kevin Jepsen combined to throw 5-1/3 innings of shutout ball, allowing only three hits while striking out two.
Credit should be given to the guys in the field — it seemed like all of the outfielders made excellent warning track snares at some point in the game. Kevin Kiermaier made a spectacular grab to retire Devon Travis for the second out of the ninth, leaping against the scoreboard in right-center.
I feel like if it’s in the air, I’m going to catch it, Kiermaier said following the game. The only way I’m not going to catch it is if it goes out.
Kudos to Kiermaier for hushing his critics after the play, or at least attempting to:
You tell ’em, Outlaw!
*The run was credited to Matt Andriese
The New What Next
Erasmo Ramirez is slated to get the start Wednesday, opposite of Blue Jays LHP Mark Buehrle. Buehrle, the ultimate thorn in ones side, went 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in six starts against the Rays last season. The addition will add a fresh arm to the bullpen for the next 10 days. You can read about the match-up in our series preview.
Rays 4/15/16 Starting Lineup
Guyer LF
Souza RF
Cabrera SS
Longoria 3B
Jennings DH
Forsythe 1B
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Beckham 2B
Ramirez RHP
Noteworthiness
I really like this perspective of Souza’s blast to center:
(Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
The Rays are 0-13 wRISP through the first two games of this series, yet they have won twice.
Hahmann also brought up a good point in his game recap, why does MLB have replay if calls like the one against Desmond Jennings in the sixth inning. He attempted to steal second but was thrown out even though replays appeared to show his hands touching second well before a tag was placed.
Per Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune), the Rays have recalled RHP Jose Dominguez; the corresponding move as Tampa Bay optioned Kirby Yates to Triple-A Durham following Tuesday night’s game. Dominguez will wear number 52, while the addition gives the Rays a fresh arm in the pen.
The team also assigned RHP Ronald Belisario, who was slowed in spring by left shoulder fracture, to Triple-A Durham.
By the way Toronto, how do you go from 50,000 fans the first night to 17,000 the next (a 66% reduction)? What is, the Trop? Pfft!
Desmond Jennings steals third base during the second inning. (Photo courtesy of Peter Power/The Canadian Press via AP)
Jake Odorizzi as impressive once again, going eight strong innings while the Tampa Bay Rays scored on two bases-loaded walks by R.A. Dickey to beat the Blue Jays 2-1 Monday night. The Rays improved to 4-3 on the season, sending a sellout crowd of 48,414 home unhappy.
The righty found himself in two sticky situations, yet Odorizzi willing and able to limit the damage to only one run. The first came in the first inning when Odorizzi issued a pair of two-out walks to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Though both runners were able to advance on a wild pitch, Josh Donaldson struck out looking to end the threat. Odorizzi followed by putting down 12 consecutive batters until the fourth inning.
Hitless two outs into the fifth, Kevin Pillar doubled on a shallow fly-ball that bounced past a diving Steven Souza, in right. Devon Travis followed with an RBI single. It could be argued, had Souza played the ball on a hop, we’d be talking about a base hit and a shutout.
Jake wasn’t nearly as dependent on his curveball or Cobber this time around, instead he relied on his upper 80’s cutter to coax a good number of weak nubbers and of infield squibbers — 13 to be exact. In the end, Odorizzi allowed just one run on two hits and three walks, while fanning three on an efficient 103 pitches (avg. 12.85 pitches per inning). His pitch breakout:
On the offensive end of things, the team had trouble making solid contact early, however, they were able to get men on with a couple of walks, an HBP in the second inning, and a hustling play by Souza to beat out a throw for an infield single in the third. The base runners — especially Desmond Jennings — were effective in rattling RA Dickey, who was unusually ineffective at controlling the running game. Case in point: they were able to coax a third inning balk on a pick-off throw to hold Souza at second, just by the mere threat of a steal. Jennings ended the night with two stolen bases off a pitcher who gave up just three steals in all of 2014.
Jennings and Allan Dykstra singled to begin the fourth, yet Dickey recuperated and retired the next two batters. Rattled again by the speedy Jennings, Dickey walked three consecutive batters to load the bases and drive in the all the runs the Rays would. The knuckleballer hadn’t walked five since an April 17 of 2014. He walked five or more twice in 34 starts last season.
Per the associated press, those were the fifth and sixth bases loaded walks for the Rays this season. Entering play Monday, the 29 other major league teams had combined for eight.
The other story line of the night was Rene Rivera, who was on fire behind the plate. In his first great play, Rivera served warning to the would-be Toronto base-runners by snapping a throw to first that appeared to beat Jose Bautista back to the bag. The subsequent replays showed Dykstra tagging Bautista’s wrist, although Cash did not challenge the call.
In the eighth inning, Devon Travis laid down a bunt that Rivera cleanly fielded. He quickly fired a bullet to first, consequently beating Travis to the bag.
Finally in the ninth, With Brad Boxberger on the mound, Bautista tested Rivera’s arm after he walked to begin the inning. Boxberger struck out Edwin Encarnacion on a nasty 3-2 high fastball, and Rivera followed by gunning down Bautista a few steps in front of second; completing a strike-em-out-throw-em-out double play.
The New What Next
Matt Andriese will make his first career start on Tuesday when the Rays face the Blue Jays in the second game of their current four game set. Andriese is the 25th different pitcher to start for the Rays since 2008, the fewest in baseball over that span. The Blue Jays counter with rookie Daniel Norris (1-0, 4.76). You can read about the pitching match-up in our series preview.
Rays 4/14/15 Starting Lineup
Guyer LF
Souza RF
Cabrera DH
Longoria 3B
Jennings CF
Forsythe 2B
Rivera 1B
Beckham SS
Wilson C
Andriese P
Yes you read that correctly, Rivera is getting thr start at first with Beckham at short, Cabrera at DH for an all right handed hitting lineup. Rivera told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he played 15-20 games at first base in winter ball and two games for the Padres in 2014: “I feel pretty good there.”
Noteworthiness
— Introducing Daniel Norris, the Blue Jays’ starting pitcher in tonight’s game. I actually REALLY admire Norris and his simple philosophy; there’s a lot to like.
— Drew Smyly threw in his second rehab start at Class-A Charlotte Tuesday morning (more on that below). Jake McGee threw 30 pitches of live batting practice at extended spring training Monday.
LHP Drew Smyly threw three scoreless innings in the Stone Crabs win over Daytona. (Photo courtesy of Josh Vitale)
Smyly tossed three scoreless innings Tuesday morning in his second rehab start, giving up one hit and striking four. He threw 40 pitches (28 strikes) then followed by throwing an additional 12 pitches in the bullpen. Smyly is expected to make two more rehab starts before returning to the fold in late April.
It felt good, Smyly told Josh Vitale (SunCoast Sports). Another step forward. I’m just trying to build up my pitch count, work on my pitches. All in all, it was a good day.
Smyly, who has allowed one hit over five scoreless innings in his two rehab outings, talked about his start and the next steps on his road to recovery:
— Allan Dykstra got a black eye on the second pitch of batting practice, after he popped a bunt back into his face. He told the media there was never a doubt he’d play, even going as far as putting ice and cold spoons on his eye during game: “If that’s what it takes, I’ll go ahead and get another one.”
— Per the Rays PR department, Jake Odorizzi is just the third AL pitcher in the last 100 years to begin the season with two starts of six-plus innings, while allowing two hits or less and one run or fewer. He joins Alexi Ogando (Rangers 2011) and Hernandez (Royals 2003). Moreover, the Rays starters have posted three consecutive games with seven or more innings with two hits or fewer — the second such streak in AL history. The other team? The 1992 Oakland Athletics.
