The New What Next: Rays vs. Tigers ― A Series Preview

It seems like EVERY Rays game has gone like this of late. Jake Elmore dives for but cannot come up with an RBI-single by JJ Hardy during the first inning on Sunday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
It seems like EVERY Rays game has gone like this of late. Jake Elmore dives for but cannot come up with an RBI-single by JJ Hardy during the first inning on Sunday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
The Tampa Bay Rays capped off a miserable 2-5 week with a hard to watch 5-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. I can scarcely remember all of the good feelings at the end of the first half, when the Rays swept the then first place Houston Astros. They’ll welcome David Price and the Detroit Tigers into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Monday.

If you’re a fan of irony, you’ll love this. Tampa Bay’s former ace finds himself in a déjà vu like scenario ― as with last season, Price will be on hand at the Trop when a decision regarding his future with the Tigers could be made. If he isn’t dealt before Tuesday, he’ll take the mound opposite of Jake Odorizzi in the second game of the set.

Tampa Bay has dropped six of nine since the All-Star Break (and a Major League worst 7-17 since June 28) while averaging just 2.1 runs per game. John Jaso is the only Ray hitting over .244 in that span, while six others are batting below .235.

Sadly Tampa Bay’s 3-1/2 runs per game would be its fewest ever for a season — even the 100-plus loss teams of 2001, ’02 and ’06 all averaged 4.2 or better.

At 48-50, Detroit has lost nine of 13. And like the Rays, the Tigers are another fringe contender who are seemingly hanging on by a thread. Also like Tampa Bay, Detroit has been hobbled of late by the injury bug ― Miguel Cabrera sustained a grade three calf strain on the Fourth of July. However, if you think the Rays pitching staff is in for an easy go of things without Cabrera in the lineup, you’d be wrong. Le Tigre still ranks third in baseball in run scoring per game, scoring 5.45 runs per game since June 21.The rest of the offense has stepped up in his absence.

The Tigers relievers are both good and bad, if that makes any sense. Joakim Soria has racked up 22 saves, yet he’s given up 13 homers in 40 innings of work, and that home run rate is climbing. Bruce Rondon has been intermittently good, although those stretches are peppered with wildness and a lack of command. Similarly, Al Alburquerque sprinkles his quality outings with lapses in command and walks.

As Rob Rogacki (Bless You Boys) put it:

Brad Ausmus has a terrible knack for using his worst relievers in the highest leverage situations possible. Joba Chamberlain, Ian Krol, and Angel Nesbitt all have a higher leverage index than Wilson, who has a 1.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings.

Nathan Karns, Jake Odorizzi, and Chris Archer will take the hill opposite of Anibal Sanchez, David Price, and Justin Verlander. Karns (5-5, 3.47 ERA) has has posted a 2.83 ERA in his last seven starts, yet he’s received six runs of support in 41-1/3 innings. The righty bounced back from an 8-3 loss at Kansas City before the All-Star break by scattering three hits over five scoreless innings and homered in a 1-0 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday. Odorizzi (5-6, 2.85 ERA) allowed just two runs on five hits and a pair of walks while striking out five in five innings Wednesday in Philadelphia. Archer (9-7, 2.67 ERA) allowed one run on five hits, walking two and fanning nine over six innings in the Rays’ 3-1 win over Baltimore on Friday night.

Tampa Bay won last season’s series, 4-3.

Rays and Tigers series starters over the last 30 days.
Rays and Tigers series starters over the last 30 days.
Rays and Tigers offensive production over the last 30 days.
Rays and Tigers offensive production over the last 30 days.
Rays and Tigers by the numbers.
Rays and Tigers by the numbers.
Anibal Sanchez: Sanchez (10-7, 4.59) is 7-0 with a 3.16 ERA in his last eight starts. He also won seven straight decisions in 2013 although he’s never taken eight in a row. The Rays bombarded the righty to the tune of seven runs over 5-2/3 innings of a 7-2 the last time they faced him (July 5, 2014). That defeat moved him to 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA in six career meetings. Key matchups: David DeJesus (2-3, 2B, BB), Logan Forsythe (2-5, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2, 3B, BB), James Loney (4-12, 3B, BB), Evan Longoria (3-11, 3B, BB).

David Price: Detroit is 21-10 when Price (9-3, 2.31 ERA) takes the mound, including a 15-5 record this season. The Tigers offense, however, disappears on days that he starts ― the team has scored two runs in his past two starts. Price is 0-1 with a 0.00 ERA against his former team after he posted an excellent one hit/one run (unearned) outing last season. Key matchups: David DeJesus (4-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Jake Elmore (2-7), Brandon Guyer (1-3, 3B, RBI).

Justin Verlander: Per Rotowire, Verlander (0-3, 5.57 ERA) allowed just one run on seven hits without walking a batter and striking out three over eight innings of a no-decision against the Red Sox on Friday night. He, however, has been hammered for six plus runs in three of his seven total starts. The Tigers’ righty is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays. He’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 19 hits including four homers over his last 22-1/3 innings of work versus Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (16-63, 5 2B, 7 RBI, 6 BB), David DeJesus (14-49, 4 2B, 6 RBI, 5 BB), James Loney (2-4, RBI), Evan Longoria (7-25, 2B, 3B, HR, 7 RBI, 9 BB).

Noteworthiness

― Asdrubal Cabrera’s first (and maybe only) rehab game with the Charlotte Stone Crabs was rained out Monday. The Rays shortstop worked out at the Trop instead.

His rehabilitation stint is expected to be short, and Cabrera should return to the big league roster during this series (pending and evaluation after his first rehab game…whenever that may be).

Interestingly enough, Tim Beckham got in some work at first base on Monday with bench coach Tom Foley, and third base coach Charlie Montoyo. Rays manager Kevin Cash told the media that Beckham, who was called up when Cabrera went on the DL, was working to increase his versatility. It’s thought that  he may stay when Cabrera returns, while utility man Jake Elmore would be optioned back to Triple-A Durham.

― Drew Smyly’s final line following his first rehab start with Durham Sunday night: 2.1 IP/3 H/4 ER/2 BB/1 HR/3 K/51 pitches (29 strikes). Smyly had a follow up evaluation at the Trop on Monday, and per Cash, the lefty will make another rehab start on Friday. 

And while there is a tear in his left labrum, Smyly noted that the issue may have been a bruised rotator cuff. He told the media that he’s very encouraged by his first rehab start. Smyly’s velocity sat in 90s, and he mentioned that his arm felt great. Now, it’s just a matter of building up innings.

― The Rays announced a multi-year extension to keep airing games on 620 WDAE. Team officials said that ratings are up 27% from 2014 (listeners 18 and older).

― The Rays have gone 13 straight games by scoring four runs or fewer, matching the Mariners for the longest stretch in the majors in 2015. The previous longest stretch came from the Royals in 2013.

The New What Next: Luck Dragonesque, Rays 7/26/15 Starting Lineup, Smyly Rehab Assignment

Kevin Kiermaier dives but can't hang onto a single by Jonathan Schoop during the third inning on Saturday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Kevin Kiermaier dives but can’t hang onto a single by Jonathan Schoop during the third inning on Saturday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

The BABIP luck dragons nipped at the heels of Erasmo Ramirez in the third inning of last night’s game, culminating in a not-so luck dragon Chris Davis grand slam. First JJ Hardy reached on a soft liner up the middle that was hit off the end of his bat, then Kevin Kiermaier couldn’t hang onto a single by Johnathan Schoop — two of the three hits that set up Davis’ slam.

There will not be an in-depth game recap today, rather all I will say is this: had the home plate umpire called Erasmo’s 1-2 belt high fastball a strike instead of a ball, Davis would have struck out looking for the second out of the inning. And since Manny Machado grounded to third three pitches later, the Orioles wouldn’t have put up a four run frame.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.45.16 AM

Brooks Baseball called the fateful pitch just above of the zone, although FoxTrax liked it. Whatever the case, it was a borderline pitch that Davis sat on to the peril of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Moving forward.

The New What Next

Matt Moore (1-1, 7.23 ERA) will take the mound in the series finale against fellow lefty Wei-Yin Chen. In eight career appearances (seven starts) against Baltimore, Moore is 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA. He, however, allowed a career-high 12 hits and nine runs against them in his most recent outing versus the Orioles. Chen has been the ace of Baltimore’s staff and is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA on the season. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 7/26/15 Starting Lineup

Guyer CF
Souza RF
Longoria DH
Forsythe 2B
Butler LF
Loney 1B
Beckham SS
Elmore 3b
Casali C
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness

— Drew Smyly is scheduled to begin his rehabilitation assignment tonight for Triple-A Durham at Norfolk (Orioles). The 26 year-old lefty is scheduled to throw three innings, or about 45 pitches, in his first game since May 5.

It’s not clear when the team will activate Smyly from the disabled list — the Rays aren’t putting a timetable on his return to the roster.

It should be assumed that Smyly will make multiple rehab starts, potentially four. Manager Kevin Cash told Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times) that the team will have to balance his ability to contribute with the health of the bullpen, which will have to account for a starter who’s still regaining his strength:

To have a guy come back that’s not totally stretched out can make it a little difficult.

— Speaking of injuries, might this be a good omen?

— We discussed the Rays at the trade deadline on Friday. Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) expanded on the subject in his most recent Rays Tales column.

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Come From Behind to Win, 3-1

Chris Archer reacts after turning a double play against J.J. Hardy and Travis Snider during the fourth inning on Friday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Chris Archer reacts after turning a double play against J.J. Hardy and Travis Snider during the fourth inning on Friday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
Tampa Bay Rays’ manager Kevin Cash told the media that it was time for a “gut check” after Wednesday’s ugly loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. If ever there was such a thing as a “gut check” win, Friday night’s 3-1 come-from-behind victory against the Baltimore Orioles was it. Tampa Bay ended the night with a 49-49 record, and — thanks to losses by the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays — tied for second place in the AL East.

Chris Archer took the mound and proved he was the heir apparent to King David’s throne. Although it took him 30 pitches to get through the first inning (and 60 through three), he was able to work around a single and a walk, and ultimately struck out the side. King Chris fanned five through the front two innings, and nine by the time he departed after six innings and 110 pitches (72 strikes).

It would be safe to say that Archer was amped up for his start. He routinely hit 99 mph on the in-house radar gun, and his energy level after making a big play (like the inning ending play against Ryan Flaherty in the third) went a long way to pump up the rest of the squad, who looked listless by comparison.

Archer kept the game scoreless until the fourth when the Orioles finally struck pay-dirt. Manny Machado led off the inning with a single up the middle. Chris Davis responded by slapping a rocket to the right of James Loney, who was playing the line in a defensive shift. The RBI double scored Machado all the way from first. The Rays’ ace eventually got Travis Snider to ground into a 1-6-3 double play, ending the frame and stranding a runner on third.

Archer, who logged his 12th start allowing 1 ER fewer (tying Hector Santiago of the Angels for most in the AL), spoke about his outing after the game:

Xavier Cedeno followed Archer and posted a hitless seventh, although it could have ended badly. Caleb Joseph hit a one-out chopper to third. Longoria lined up to make the play, yet the ball passed him by just wide of his glove. Cedeno masterfully navigated around Joseph and out of trouble. Longoria has now made two egregious defensive miscues in the last two games.

Alex Colome, who was credited with the victory, worked around a hit by pitch of Machado to put up a zero in the eighth. Machado attempted a take out slide of short-stop Jake Elmore on a fielder’s choice off the bat of Adam Jones — an obvious attempt at retaliation for the HBP that could have resulted in an injury. Machado has shown intent to cause harm to another player on a few other occasions, this is nothing new. It is no less despicable though — the Orioles’ young star needs to grow up, and soon.

While the pitching staff did its damnedest to keep the Rays in the game, Chris Tillman looked like an All-Star against Tampa Bay’s impotent offense. Tillman held the Rays to just two hits — one of which being a Kevin Kiermaier bunt single — and two walks over the previous seven innings. That changed when Kiermaier worked a leadoff walk in the eighth which spelled doom for Tillman.

Darren O’Day entered the game in relief. O’Day, who hadn’t allowed a run to Tampa Bay since June 23, 2014, got pinch-hitter Joey Butler to line out to Adam Jones in right-center for the first out of the inning. Kiermaier then swiped second, but Steven Souza Jr. struck out looking on a 3-2 pitch that appeared to be inside.

The stolen base paid dividends. John Jaso followed with a two-out liner to center, knotting the game at one apiece. Longo decided to joint in of the fun, and none too soon. After seeing eight pitches, Longoria muscled a broken-bat blooper into no-man’s land, moving Jaso to third. Loney was next, and worked a 3-0 count before being intentionally walked, loading the bases for Beckham.

Beckham fell behind 0-2 (as he’s wont to do) before he shortened his swing, and shot a grounder off the mound and into center field, plating Jaso and Longoria before Loney was thrown out at third — giving the Rays a two run advantage heading into the ninth.

Jake McGee got the call in the top of the inning to slam the door on Baltimore. And though he allowed a leadoff single to JJ Hardy, McGee forced a pair of ground-outs before punching Jonathan Schoop out to put a tally for his team in the win column, and earn the save. Previous to last night, the Rays were just 1-37 when trailing after seven innings, while the Orioles were 39-0 when leading after seven.

The New What Next

Erasmo Ramirez (8-3, 3.54 ERA) will take on Miguel Gonzalez (8-6, 4.21 ERA) in the second game of the series on Saturday. Ramirez accrued all of his wins since joining the rotation on May 14. Gonzalez will face Tampa Bay for the fourth time this season. He’s allowed one run in 15-2/3 innings over the past two starts against the Rays. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 7/25/15 Starting Lineup

Souza RF
Jaso DH
Longoria 3b
Loney 1b
Forsythe 2b
DeJesus LF
Beckham SS
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Ramirez RHP

Noteworthiness

— Ramirez sees the skipper’s policy of pulling the starter the third time through the order as a challenge: Retire as many batters as efficiently as you can in the first two times through the order, before Cash turns to their bullpen.

That’s kind of the challenge they give you. If you win the challenge, you earn the sixth (inning), and you earn the seventh.

— Speaking of Erasmo…

— The team announced that LHP Drew Smyly will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Sunday Triple-A Durham at Norfolk. Smyly has been on the 60-day DL since he suffered a partially torn left labrum in May, in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway.

— According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rays snapped the Orioles’ streak of 87 wins when holding a lead during or after the eighth inning.

— Tim Beckham has a .250 average with nine RBI when batting with two strikes. The league average with two strikes is .177. Moreover, the infielder has 18 RBI this season — 13 have come in the seventh inning or later.

Rays 7/24/15 Starting Lineup, Etc

1909 Baltimore Orioles team photo. (Photo Credit: Ghosts of Baltimore)
1909 Baltimore Orioles team photo. (Photo Credit: Ghosts of Baltimore)

Rays 7/24/15 Starting Lineup

Souza RF
Jaso DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Beckham 2B
DeJesus LF
Elmore 2B
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Rays skipper Kevin Cash has Steven Souza Jr. hitting leadoff this evening. Logan Forsythe will get the night off, with Jake Elmore taking over at second, and Tim Beckham at short.

— Both Desmond Jennings, who is working his back from left knee surgery, and Asdrubal Cabrera took early batting practice and ran the bases this afternoon. Cabrera told Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times) said he ran at 80% and feels fine. He hopes to be back “soon,” and is elligible to return this month.

— Looks like the Rays are working on one of their weaker suits:

— Read about tonight’s Archer/Tillman pitching matchup in our series preview.

The Rays: Sellers at the Trade Deadline?

Reliever Brad Boxberger is likely be the most sought-after Rays player at the trade deadline, although Kevin Jepsen could be the most likely to go. (Photo Credit: Getty Images)
Reliever Brad Boxberger is likely be the most sought-after Rays player at the trade deadline, although Kevin Jepsen could be the most likely to go. (Photo Credit: Getty Images)
I wrote yesterday about the Tampa Bay Rays’ offensive struggles at the midpoint of the season, and the unfortunate carryover in the second half. However, subpar offensive production is only part of the equation — the pitching staff has been shaky of late. Nothing good can come out of a squad that’s struggled to score, on average, just three runs per game, while the pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs (on average, extending back to June 21).

A fair amount of the team’s shakiness rests on the shoulders of the relievers, who have slashed a combined 4.56 ERA/4.59 FIP/4.29 xFIP/68.5% LOB/-0.6 WAR over the last 30 days. In short, when the team takes a lead, the relief staff hasn’t been able to hold it. One things is certain, something has to be done soon, like now — be that designating a player like Brandon Gomes, or trading at the deadline — if Tampa Bay has any hope of playing relevant baseball in September.

Principal owner Stu Sternberg went as far as to squash any trade rumors, saying:

People say, ‘Buyer? Seller?’ It will be no different than we’ve done in years past. I think we’re in almost precisely the same spot we’ve been in every year since ’08. Which is, we’re close, we feel we have a really good team. We’d like to see our team on the field all at once. And we’ll try to be opportunistic.

However, Chris Cotillo (SB Nation) mirrored the comments of Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) for the potential of a trade, writing:

If the Rays are willing to sell, the veterans who are the most likely to be moved are David DeJesus, John Jaso and Kevin Jepsen, according to a source. Multiple teams have reached out with interest in the team’s controllable starters (Nathan Karns, Erasmo Ramirez and Alex Colome) and relievers (Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee), though the Rays would have to be overwhelmed to part with any of those arms.

A roster move here, and a trade there, could go a long way in shoring up the roster. Let’s look take a look at those potential moves.

Designate Brandon Gomes For Assignment

Brandon Gomes is on the roster for one reason, he is out of options and the Rays don’t want to risk losing him on the waiver wire. Gomes has been up and down with the team over the past few seasons, showing glimpses of being a lockdown reliever. Yet those glimpses of mastery have been overshadowed by some gaudy numbers of late — Gomes has allowed 13 runs, including four homers, in 16 innings since May 25.

Andrew Bellatti would likely take the spot on the roster, although Matt Andriese, Enny Romero or Kirby Yates would also be suitable replacements. Bellatti’s plus slider should have been back with the major league club yesterday, although the same could be said for a healthy Yates, Romero or Andriese. And while Bellatti has posted an excellent 2-0 record and a 1.50 ERA/4.33 FIP/22.0 K%/12 IP line with the big league squad this season, at Durham he sits while Gomes continues to waste major league opportunities.

Boxberger, McGee, and Jepsen

First and foremost, the likelihood of a Nathan Karns or Erasmo Ramirez trade is slim. Both have proven to be integral to the rotation, and both are cheap and team controlled. Alex Colome is also cheap and team controlled, however, moving him in some capacity would open a spot for Ramirez in the bullpen upon the return of Drew Smyly in August.

Brad Boxberger has 24 saves thus far, and is likely to be the most sought after. Because of it, he would likely have the highest price tag. Boxberger will get a slight raise from his $521,400 salary next season before arbitration eligibility in 2017.

As Topkin asserted, “Jake McGee also will be a popular subject of conversation, given his overpowering fastball and impressive work since returning from elbow surgery, including 20 straight scoreless outings and a 1.19 ERA.” McGee is in line for a raise from $3.55 million to in excess of $5 million next season — pricey by Rays standards. The lefty is under team control until 2018.

According to DRaysBay, Boxberger and McGee would command a huge return, with research showing the Rays could expect a return of a prospect ranked in the 11-50 range on industry lists. That’s a great return! It makes sense you would listen for those offers to come through. However, neither Jake nor the Box are likely to go anywhere. The same cannot be said for Jepsen.

Acquired for Matt Joyce from the Angels in December, Jepsen has posted a solid 2.88 ERA (4.12 FIP) and five saves in high leverage duty. On the contrary, he has walked over four batters per nine innings. Jepsen is expected to earn more than $5MM in arbitration next season after making $3,025,000, and is eligible for free agency in 2017.

Dealing Jepsen at the deadline would allow the team to command a higher return than in the off-season, and would also open a spot in the ‘pen for Yates, Romero, Andriese, Bellatti or Riefenhauser.

DeJesus and Jaso

DeJesus, who has been trade fodder in the past, is the most obvious candidate. Despite cooling off with the progression of the season, DDJ can still provide a good boost to a contending team as a fourth outfielder/part time DH. His current contract runs out at the season, although there is a $5MM club option that Tampa Bay would likely decline.

Tampa Bay traded for Jaso last offseason, and he’s going to be a free agent at the end of this season. Still if there is a hope of the dreaded one giving the team a hometown discount next season, I’d imagine the Rays would be inclined to re-sign him to a short-term contract in the very least. ZiPS projects Jaso to outperform DeJesus over the duration of the season — .263 BA/.355 OBP/.409 SLG/.764 OPS vs. .245 BA/.323 OBP/.372/.695 OPS — therefore if Tampa Bay trading Jaso might not be the wisest of choices for Matt Silverman, especially if it hopes to contend. Then again, he’s been on fire since his return from the DL, so selling high seems like a good idea if the Rays don’t see themselves as contenders.

Unless the team is able to acquire a power bat in return (pipe down those of you who think Yoenis Cespedes would fit in Tampa Bay), the Rays could promote a player or two within the organization, and the most logical candidates would be INF Richie Shaffer and 1B/C JP Arencebia.

Shaffer has hit 23 home runs in the minors, though since his experience is limited to first and third, he’d likely be a DH candidate in the least, or a right-handed platoon candidate with James Loney at most. Unless the brain-trust is willing to part ways with either Loney or John Jaso, I have my doubts this idea would gain traction

Arencebia also has 20 homers, which compliment his 42 runs and 47 RBI nicely. However, his overall .223 BA/.254 OBP/.464 SLG/.323 OPS line doesn’t look too appealing.

Noteworthiness

— According to Topkin, four teams — Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers — match-up with the Rays, and have engaged and/or scouted the players on the trade bubble mentioned above.