Fare thee well Jon Stewart, thank you for everything over the last 16 plus years.
Rays 8/7/15 Starting Lineup
Jaso DH
Sizemore LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Nava RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Odorizzi RHP
Noteworthiness
― Both Daniel Nava and Asdrubal Cabrera are in tonight’s lineup, in right-field and at short respectively.
― Drew Smyly was at 91-92 mph with his fastball last night for Durham, although he had some trouble putting hitters away. He is expected to make at least one more rehab start.
Brad Boxberger pitching in relief last season. (Photo Credit: Philip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
In 2014, Brad Boxberger emerged as one of the better backend relievers, posting excellent numbers across the board in almost every category, with the exception HR/FB ratio ― a category that can be largely attributed to luck. Boxberger became the de facto closer at the start of the season while Jake McGee mended from elbow surgery, a tacit status he maintained even after the return of the fastball throwing lefty. While the righty has been dependable overall ― collecting saves 27 in 29 opportunities ― Boxberger has been a touch shaky of late.
Over the last few months I’ve attempted to write an analytical piece on Boxberger, yet something has always gotten in the way ― life has a way of doing that. Thankfully Jason Hanselman (The Process Report) stepped up to the plate and knocked it out of the park with his recent piece, titled GettingBrad Boxberger Back on the Beaten Path.
In short, The Process Report is one of my favorite blogs, and I wanted to share with you some of Hanselman’s findings.
Hanselman writes that we can see he (Boxberger) was very good early, then pretty bad, before pitching close to league average and his own expectations over the most recent period. Clearly, he hasn’t been good, but can we attempt to figure out what is going wrong?
Based on his assertion, Hanselman used pitch f/x data courtesy of the excellent Baseball Savant to break down Bxoberger’s performance, both good and bad.
He found a few glaring differences between this year and last,
Boxberger was throwing his (fastball and change-up) combo in the zone a TON more last year. He hadn’t shown the ability to throw it for strikes coming into last year and it looks like he’s back in that similar range of being around 30% pitches in the zone. He’s still getting the chases, especially early this year and most recently, but it would appear that batters are showing a propensity to spit on the pitch. When batters were loathe to swing at the change he started filling up the zone with taken called strikes. I think he needs to make that similar adjustment this year. Get batters swing happy again and I think you will see better results, which can only help the fastball:
Continuing with,
Up until recently batters were showing an eerie ability to swing about as often as he was in the zone. Then he stopped throwing it in the zone. Having a fastball strike percentage of 30 – 35% is, umm, not good. This leads me to believe that he needs to start throwing both of his pitches for strikes more, which I’m sure everyone still reading is nodding along with after last night’s walkoff. This kind of ties together the previous two images plus the breaking balls that aren’t worth exploring:
The chases are nice, but he’s going to have to get back in the zone as he did in 2014 in order to become a dominant force again. Lastly, I wanted to show the Run Value trends for each pitch just to further hammer this point home:
And finally concluding,
His fastball was disgusting last year and it sure would be nice to have that back. Hopefully he can get back to throwing four-seamers up in the zone for strikes instead of two-seamers running off the plate for balls. Get that batters eye-level looking upstairs and then wipe him out with that very good change.
It’s a well thought out piece that’s well worth your time. It’s also linked above, so give it a once over in its entirety! I’ll eventually finish my original piece down the road, in the interim this stands as an excellent jump off as a means to better understand Brad Boxberger.
Evan Longoria celebrates his home run off Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, in the dugout during the fifth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2015, in Chicago. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
The Tampa Bay Rays returned home from a moderately successful six-game road trip having won three against the Red Sox and White Sox. They’ll welcome the New York Mets into the Trop for a rare three-game interleague series.
To be certain, this is a much bigger set than most anticipated upon the release of the MLB schedule. Both teams are in the midst of playoff races — Tampa Bay is hanging onto slim playoff hopes in the AL Wildcard race, and the Mets are trying to hold off the Nationals for their division lead.
It has been no secret throughout the season, both teams have struggled offensively. But, in the last week-and-a-half the Rays offense has shown signs of life. Despite scoring only 404 runs on the season, they have scored at least four runs in eight of their last nine games — something that is attributed to a more aggressive approach in the batter’s box.
Tampa Bay’s hitters are swinging earlier in counts and not being as concerned with grinding out at-bats and running up pitch counts:
We discussed that the last home stand, that we need to be more aggressive, manager Kevin Cash said. Not that it wasn’t working, but we weren’t getting the type of production that we’re capable of maybe being a little less aggressive.
Hitting coach Derek Shelton chimed in:
…making sure there is a consistent message throughout the lineup … reinforcing that we’re trying to swing at the right pitch, the pitch that we feel we can handle the best.
Part of the recent success for the offense has been an increase in production by Asdrubal Cabrera and Evan Longoria. Cabrera is riding a nine-game hitting streak, hitting .500 over that stretch and going 17-34 at the plate. Longoria also has a nice streak going, as he has reached base in 13 consecutive games, batting .396 over the length of his streak.
Will the team’s productive ways continue over the weekend?
If the Rays are going to make any headway in the race, this is a series they need to win. It won’t be easy, as they’ll face a pair of extremely bright young arms in two of the next three days: Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard (more on them below). Veteran Bartolo Colon is scheduled to throw in the series finale, on Sunday.
Shelton told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) it’s hard to even think of a comparable duo in the AL based on how hard they throw.
They’re built like back-end bullpen arms. These guys are power, coming at you with fastballs. It’s old school.
Tampa Bay will counter with Jake Odorizzi, Nathan Karns, and Chris Archer. Odorizzi (6-6, 2.86) matched a career high with 113 pitches en route to a quality start against Boston on Sunday. Jake is making his first career appearance against the Mets and is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA in seven starts at the Trop this season. Karns (6-5, 3.37) is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last three starts. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and is 3-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts at Tropicana Field this season. Archer (9-8, 2.54) notched his 15th quality start of the season on Tuesday, allowing just two runs on six scattered hits and a walk en route to his first win since June 23. He is 3-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 13 home starts in 2015.
Rays and Mets series starters over the last 14 days.Rays and Mets offensive production over the last 14 days.Rays and Mets by the numbers.
Jacob deGrom: deGrom (10-6, 2.09 ERA) owns baseball’s second-best ERA and third-best batting average against (.199). His last start proved one of the toughest of his sensational sophomore season, but he battled through six innings in a no-decision. He relies primarily on a whiffy 96 mph four seam fastball, though he also mixes in a 90 mph 12-6 slider that generates a good number of ground balls, a 95 mph sinker, a firm 86 mph change, and an 83 mph worm killer of a curve. I imagine the team will approach deGrom as they had Sale, sit fastball.
Noah Syndergaard: Syndergaard (6-5, 2.66 ERA) beat Washington last time out to become the 22nd pitcher in the past 100 years to record consecutive starts of at least eight innings, nine strikeouts and no walks. He is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his past nine starts. He relies primarily on a blazing 98 mph four seam fastball that coaxes a lot of grounders, a whiffy 81 mph curveball, and a 98 mph sinker. He also mixes in a hard 89 mph change with a lot of arm side fade, and rarely throws an 88 mph Slider.
Bartolo Colon: Colon (10-10, 4.72 ERA) still owns a 5.53 ERA since May 18, but has delivered eight-inning, one-run starts twice in his last three outings — the third being six-run clunker. Colon will try to avoid something similar against a Rays team he has not faced since 2012 when he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings of work. Still, the 42 year-old veteran owns a stingy .208 BA/.307 OBP/.325 SLG/.631 OPS line against Tampa Bay for his career. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (4-11, 2 2B, 3 BB), Daniel Nava (2-8, BB), Rene Rivera (1-3, HR, 2 RBI).
Noteworthiness
— Newest Ray Daniel Nava said goodbye to the Red Sox on Thursday:
Adam Eaton steals second on a throw from Tampa Bay Rays catcher Curt Casali that hit shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera on the head, during the 10th inning on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Despite coming back from a five run deficit, the Tampa Bay Rays couldn’t complete the three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox, falling 6-5 in extra innings. On the bright side, the Rays have now scored at least five runs in eight of the last nine ballgames. For your reading pleasure a few, brief updates on this the first of three off-days over the next eight days.
— One bad inning by Erasmo Ramirez put the Rays into an early five run hole. However, Ramirez only allowed two base runners (hit, walk) for the duration of his start, giving the team an opportunity to chip away at Chicago’s lead.
Erasmo didn’t have much of an explanation for how he could pitch so badly to start the game, yet finish so strongly:
I didn’t execute. That’s what was happening in the first inning. After that inning everything was better. But … it was too late.
— One of the more odd plays in yesterday’s ballgame came in the 10th inning after Asdrubal Cabrera was struck on the side of the head by an errant throw from Curt Casali, which deflected off his glove. Cabrera was happy to report he was okay.
Cabrera fell to the ground in pain, allowing Adam Eaton to advance to third and eventually score the winning run. Cabrera initially stayed in the game, but was pulled from the game three batters later after he went to a knee in continued discomfort. Cabrera underwent testing at US Cellular Field, and the Rays concluded there was no concussion, only a contusion.
— Brad Boxberger was none too happy with the outcome of the series finale… With the winning run on third and one out, Rays manager Kevin Cash had Boxberger intentionally walk both Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera to load the bases, thus increasing the opportunity to coax a double play. The strategy did not work, as Boxberger walked in the game winning run five pitches later.
The reliever said he didn’t want to do it that way, preferring to put on Abreu then face the lefty-swinging Cabrera with a base open:
I was already struggling to throw strikes, so I don’t really get walking Cabrera. But it’s not my choice. It’s not my call, so I can’t say anything at that point,I’m not going to overstep my boundaries. It’s the manager’s decision, and that’s what he wanted to do.
Boxberger continued:
Walking the lefty to get to another righty, I wouldn’t see it in my game. With the way my changeup plays, I felt like I could get a ground ball (double play) with Melky running. Either that or just weak contact and keep the runner at third and get an out and be able to pitch out of it.
For his part Cash said walking Abreu and Cabrera was definitely the right move, and he would do it again even though he knew it put Boxberger in tough spot.
— Tampa Bay made the acquisition of Daniel Nava official following the game Wednesday, optioning OF Mikie Mahtook back to Triple-A Durham to make roster space for the 32 year-old outfielder. Team officials felt they needed a veteran bat to boost the lineup against right-handed pitching after trading David DeJesus, writes Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), which led to the team’s claim of Nava off waivers yesterday. Part of the reason the Rays chose to act might be the upcoming stretch against primarily right-handed starters.
He does a nice job against right-handed pitching, said manager Kevin Cash. He makes pitchers work a lot.
Cash told the media that Nava has returned to switch-hitting after going exclusively left-handed for a while. His best season came in 2013, when he hit .303 with 12 homers, 66 RBI and an .832 OPS in 134 games.
— Drew Smyly is expected to make at least two more rehab starts before rejoining the club. The first of those outings will come today (five innings/75 pitches), with a second one slated for Tuesday of next week. The team wouldn’t need a fifth starter until August 18, at which point Smyly could rejoin the rotation. His return will undoubtedly be a nice boost to the Rays, as the team is in need of rotation help at the moment after optioning Matt Moore to Triple-A Durham following some post Tommy John surgery struggles.
— Desmond Jennings went was 0-4 as the DH for the Bulls last night, and is 2-16 with two walks in his first five rehab games. That is, he’s picking up right where he left off before being placed on the DL.
Richie Shaffer became the seventh Rays rookie to hit his first major league home run this season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)The marquee matchup between Chris Archer and Chris Sale did not live up to billing on Tuesday night, after the Tampa Bay Rays put together a five run sixth — after previously tagging the left handed hurler for three runs — and belted four homers to back Archer in a 11-3 victory. At 54-54 on the season, Tampa Bay is back to .500, and just two games out in the Wildcard race, after a third straight victory.
The Rays gave Archer to a 2-0 lead in the first inning. Brandon Guyer worked a leadoff walk, and after Sale retired the next two batters, Forsythe pummeled a 2-2 fastball into the left field seats for a two-run lead. It was Forsythe’s 13th homer of the season.
Chicago got back a run in the fourth against Archer, when Tyler Saladino hit a solo shot on a 98 mile per hour fastball into the left field seats — his third homer of the year. Meanwhile Sale was in a good rhythm after retiring 10-of-11. Yet that all changed when Mikie Mahtook stepped to the plate. Mahtook gave Tampa Bay a two-run lead once more when he homered to left-center on a 1-2, center cut fastball from. It was Mahtook’s third homer this year.
The Rays were not done, and in the next inning they exploded, banging out five more runs and never looking back.
Entering the sixth with a two-run lead, the Rays’ rally started with a Forsythe walk. Asdrubal Cabrera singled to right and Richie Shaffer walked to load the bases against Chicago’s All-Star hurler. Mikie Mahtook fanned, but Kevin Kiermaier followed with an RBI single to center. Sale, for some odd reason, did not back up the plate, and a second run scored when Adam Eaton’s throw went through the five hole of Tyler Flowers, and to the backstop. Ventura saw enough of Sale, and called upon the services of Daniel Webb, who inherited two runners.
Rene Rivera greeted Web with an RBI single for a five-run lead. Pinch-hitter Grady Sizemore drove in another run with an RBI fielder’s choice to second. The RBI was the 500th of Sizemore’s career. James Loney and Evan Longoria followed with back-to-back singles, with the latter scoring the final run of the frame. Tampa Bay sent 10 players to the plate in the inning.
The team tacked on two more runs in the seventh, when Cabrera and Shaffer hit back-to-back homers off Webb for a 10-1 advantage. For Shaffer, it was his first hit at the MLB level.
Webb left a thigh-high mid 90’s fastball over the outer third of the plate, and Shaffer responded with an opposite field backspin homer.
Pitch number six became a moment for Shaffer.Shaffer became the eighth Ray to make his first Major League hit a home run — the third this year — joining Nathan Karns (7/21/15, vs. the Phillies) and Mikie Mahtook (4/15/15, vs. the Blue Jays). The others: Brandon Guyer (5/6/11, vs. the Orioles), Elijah Dukes (4/2/07, vs. the Yankees), Delmon Young (8/29/06, vs. the White Sox), Brent Abernathy (6/25/01, vs. the Red Sox) and Esteban Yan (6/4/00, vs. the Mets).
Once Shaffer reached the dugout, he received the silent treatment. Instead, Shaffer moved down the length of the dugout giving high-fives and hugs to his imaginary friends until he reached the spot where his teammates huddled in a circle.
It was awesome, Shaffer said after the game. I knew they were going to do something. So I go in there and no one’s looking at me or talking to me, so I gave some fake high-fives and handshakes to everyone. And they had their little ring going and I made my way down there and everyone was going nuts. It was an awesome experience. Everyone was having fun.
The Rays scored their final run in the ninth on a Kiermaier base hit. Kiermaier and Rivera each had three hits apiece.
The run support was more than enough for Archer, who posted seven innings of two run ball. The ace relied mostly on his plus fastball, working without his best slider but making effective use of it, scattering six hits while fanning seven and throwing 107 pitches. Alex Colome pitched a perfect eighth and Kirby Yates allowed a two-out homer to Avisail Garcia in the ninth.
The New What Next
Erasmo Ramirez (8-4, 3.61 ERA) will make his 17th start of the season, opposite of Carlos Rodon (4-4, 4.84 ERA). Ramirez earned a no-decision in a 7-5 loss against Boston on Friday. Three of the runs on his line were unearned due to a pair of first-inning errors. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Rodon aims to rebound after allowing a career-high eight runs his last time on the mound, surrendering 19 combined runs in the month of July. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Rays 8/5/15 Starting Lineup
Guyer RF
Butler LF
Longoria 3B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Loney 1B
Shaffer DH
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Ramirez RHP
Noteworthiness
— Drew Smyly will make at least two more rehab starts, Thursday for Triple-A Durham then, likely, Tuesday. That lines him up for a return to the big league roster after August 16. Under the team’s current four-starter plan they need a fifth by August 18. Desmond Jennings went 1-for-3 and played the outfield for the Bulls in his fourth rehab game.
— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) the Rays have acquired OF Daniel Nava. Mikie Mahtook has been optioned to Durham to make room on the roster for Nava.
Nava, 32, is a switch hitter who plays mostly corner outfield and some first base. He was designated for assignment the Red Sox on July 30 after slashing .152 BA/.200 OBP/.182 SLG/.382 OPS in 78 plate appearances, while also dealing with njuries. He, however, is the owner of a career .267 BA/.357 OBP/.367 SLG/.724 OPS/.333 wOBA line, and defensive metrics thought he had improved significantly in his outfield defense.
Tampa Bay would be placing a good amount of trust in a turn-around from Nava, as the team will owe him the remaining balance of his contract, around $617K. He can also be controlled for two more years via arbitration, and probably wouldn’ be in line for a significant raise.
Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) put the acquisition of Nava into perspective:
However, the player currently on the team to which Nava is most similar is left-handed outfielder and pinch hitter Grady Sizemore, who is also 32 years old. While Nava is a switch hitter in theory, he’s had dramatically better results from the left-hand side of the plate, facing right-handed pitching:
vs. LHP 348 PA, 59 wRC
vs. RHP 1179 PA, 120 wRC
He’s been 40% below average against lefties, and 20% above average against righties. That qualifies him for a very specific role.
Nava’s speed is likely declining as he ages, but according to UZR he’s been about an average corner outfielder defensively, and he’s also gotten some time at first base where he’s graded as above average.
