Rays 8/11/15 Starting Lineup, On Odorizzi, Etc

Erasmo Ramirez gets the start tonight against Williams Perez and the Braves.

Rays 8/11/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso DH
Sizemore LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Nava RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Ramirez RHP

…On Tomorrow’s Starter, Jake Odorizzi

Watch any gamecast when Jake Odorizzi is on the mound, and you’ll hear BA say one of two things (if not both); Odorizzi throws the ball to all quadrants of the zone, and he isn’t afraid to use his excellent split-change effectively. In short, Jake has become a pitching juggernaut for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Ryan Romano (Beyond the Box Score) has also taken notice of Jake, writing that Odorizzi may have found the right recipe for success. His strikeouts have declined, as have the walks. Fewer balls have gone for hits, and for home runs, while a spike in ground balls have coincided with a drop in fly balls and pop-ups.

His whiff and caught looking rates haven’t decreased, rather Odorizzi has forced batters to put the ball in play more often. Romano found that the 2014 version of Odorizzi threw a fair amount of strikes, at 63.8%; however, he didn’t allow hitters to put the ball in play, with the third-lowest in play-strike rate (24.9%) in the American League. Consequently, he found himself in a lot of deep counts, leading the league in pitches per plate appearance. As research will tell you, pitchers who don’t pound the strike zone and/or pitch to contact will generally run mediocre walk rates, in addition to higher strikeout rates.

Because of it, the righty has worked more effciently while also lowering his levels of free passes and punchouts. Odorizzi’s strike rate has risen to 64.7%, while his in-play strike rate has come all the way up to 29.0%. Not only has the type of Odorizzi’s batted balls shifted, the volume has increased, thus affecting his strikeouts and walks.

From there, Romano went on to discuss Odorizzi’s repotoire, finding that while his four-seamer still occupies the largest spot in Odorizzi’s arsenal, the splitter has spiked to nearly its level. The cutter, too, has become a primary pitch, as has (to a lesser extent) the sinker, while the slider has nearly disappeared. 

The righty has swapped out a good pitch for an elite one — the split-change, which gave him most of his success in 2014, putting up a 68.2% strike rate, 20.0% whiff rate, and — most importantly, given what we’ve established earlier — a 21.5% in-play rate. 

In Year Two of its existence, the splitter has gone from good to great. Packing on a half a mile-per-hour of velocity (from 84.8 to 85.5) and some extra horizontal movement (from 4.7 inches to 5.0) has helped it generate weaker contact, as it’s sustained its output with strikes, swinging strikes, and balls in play. Its 2015 BABIP of .267 and home run rate of 0.4% have made it worth three runs above average, compared to 2.7 runs below average last season. That’s, if I may, pretty damn good!

I haven’t done Romano justice by just summarizing his excellent piece. Do yourself a favor and head to Beyond the Boxscore to read the article in its entirety (linked above).

Noteworthiness

— Both Casali and Kiermaier are back in the lineup, hitting eighth and ninth respectively. Kiermaier said his injured right thumb is progressing. He put extra padding around it, and will use a thinner handled bat tonight, saying, “It’s pain toleration at this point.”

— Desmond Jennings (knee) will continue his rehab assignment with the Class-A Stone Crabs tonight, playing nine innings in left-field. He is slated for two games with the Stone Crabs, then will be activated from the DL.

— Haven’t read our Rays/Braves series preview? Change that here and now!

The New What Next: Rays vs Braves, Part Deux — A Series Preview

John Jaso hits a sacrifice fly in front of catcher Kevin Plawecki to score Richie Shaffer during the third inning of a game on August 9, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
John Jaso hits a sacrifice fly in front of catcher Kevin Plawecki to score Richie Shaffer during the third inning of a game on August 9, 2015. (Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
After playing well against the NL East leading New York Mets, the Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their Interleague success starting Tuesday, when they open a two-game set against the Atlanta Braves. The Rays rallied from a pair of three-run deficits to win the final two contests of the series against the previously surging Mets. At 56-56 on the season, Tampa Bay has won five of seven to remain in contention in the AL wildcard race.

The Rays are 9-6 against the NL this season, although the team split a pair of earlier meetings with the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves, however, have won 11 of 15 games at Tropicana Field.

At 51-61 on the season, the Braves haven’t been the most successful, or consistent, ball club. Still, they totaled 22 runs in three consecutive victories over the lowly Miami Marlins… But that was before Atlanta was held to just three hits in the series finale on Sunday.

Fredi González will throw Williams Perez and Matt Wisler for Atlanta, opposite of Erasmo Ramirez and Jake Odorizzi (respectively). Ramirez (8-4, 3.83 ERA) has a 2.79 ERA in 15 starts since joining the rotation in mid-May but is 0-1 with a 4.50 in four since the All-Star break. Erasmo allowed five runs — all in the first inning — before settling down and retiring 16 of the next 18 batters in a 6-5, 10-inning road loss to the White Sox on Wednesday.

The first inning, it was just about like, how I just missed the spots, Ramirez said Sunday. I was ahead in the count, but I cannot finish … so they make me pay for that. Second inning was about just attack and finishing — both together.

The righty earned a 5-3 win on May 19 behind five innings of three-run, two-hit ball against Atlanta.

Odorizzi (6-6, 2.77 ERA) was on point Friday night, allowing one run on four hits, walking one and striking out six over 6-2/3 innings, but came away with a no-decision in the Rays’ 4-3 loss to the Mets. He has given up just seven earned runs in his past 23-2/3 innings (over a four start span; 2.66 ERA), while walking five and fanning 24.

Rays and Braves series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Braves offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves offensive production over the last 14 days.

Rays and Braves by the numbers.
Rays and Braves by the numbers.
Williams Perez: Perez (4-2, 4.48) has been hit hard in both starts since returning from a five-week stint on the DL after sustaining a foot injury. The rookie RHP has allowed 15 runs and 19 hits over 10-1/3 innings in losses to San Francisco and Philadelphia. He was 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) before the injury. Perez fared well in his previous start against Tampa Bay on May 20, allowing a run in five innings while not getting a decision in a 2-1 Braves win. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Evan Longoria (1-3), Rene Rivera (1-2).

Matt Wisler: Wisler (5-2, 4.85) is 3-0 with a 3.65 ERA in four starts at home, but is only 2-2 with a 5.93 ERA in five road. Much like Perez, he’s struggled in his past two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings against the Phillies and Marlins, including three home runs. The righty relies primarily on a 94 mph fly-ball inducing four-seam fastball, a 93 mph sinker, and an 82 mph sweeping slider. He also mixes in an 87 mph change to keep batters off balance and force weak contact, and rarely throws a 77 mph curveball.

Noteworthiness

— Asdrubal Cabrera is batting .463 in 11 games since returning from the DL July 28.

— Kiermaier said his injured right thumb is progressing. He put extra padding around it, and will use a thinner handled bat throughout the series, saying, “It’s pain toleration at this point.”

— The Rays are deciding on when best to activate OF Desmond Jennings, who completed a seven-game rehab assignment on Sunday(3-for-21, four walks) with the Triple-A Durham Bulls. Jennings has been out since April 25 with a left knee injury that required surgery. If they don’t deem him ready (and/or don’t need him to replace Kiermaier), Jennings could play another game or two for the advanced Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs.

— A.J. Pierzynski is hitting .417 with seven RBIs over his last nine games. Nick Markakis also is swinging well for Atlanta, driving in 10 RBI in his last eight games and batting .386 since July 27.

— A quick reminder, our next Rays watch party at Green Bench Brewing Company​ is on Friday. Hope to see all of you there!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Rally Again, Win Series Finale 4-3

Richie Shaffer celebrates in the dugout with teammates after scoring off of a sacrifice-fly by John Jaso during the third inning of a game on August 9, 2015. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Richie Shaffer celebrates in the dugout with teammates after scoring off of a sacrifice-fly by John Jaso during the third inning of a game on August 9, 2015. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays came from behind 3-0 to win by one run for the second consecutive day. Tampa Bay took 2-of-3 from the first place Mets, as Richie Shaffer (3-3, HR, 3 runs) was the undisputed hero of the game after putting together an impressive day at the plate. At .500 once again (55-55), Tampa Bay won a second straight series for the first time since June 15 – June 21.

Tampa Bay fell behind early, in the second inning, after Chris Archer walked four batters and allowed three two-out runs. After walking and fanning two to begin the inning, Archer walked number nine hitter Kevin Plawecki and Curtis Granderson to force home a run. Daniel Murphy followed with a two-RBI base hit to right for a three-run advantage. Archer threw an incredibly inefficient 44 pitches by the time the frame ended. The lack of control was uncharacteristic for Chris. He came into the game with a just above two BB/9.

Yet the Rays ace settled down, and didn’t walk another or allow a runner into scoring position from then on. With skipper Kevin Cash acknowledging that the tandem of Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger wouldn’t throw three days in a row, it was important for Archer to get through six innings if at all possible. And while he tossed 90 pitches through the front four, the righty got the job done and finished the day at 116. He gave up a total of four hits while striking out 10.

Meanwhile, in the third inning, the Rays took advantage of a Mets gaffe to get on the board against Bartolo Colon. Shaffer started the frame with a single to right. Then with one out, former Ray Kelly Johnson misplayed Rene Rivera’s liner to right into a double, and John Jaso followed with a well-struck sacrifice-fly to the warning track in center.

Tampa Bay knotted the game at three apiece in the fifth inning after Shaffer singled to left. Brandon Guyer did the same, and Rivera sacrificed the runners into scoring position with a beautifully executed bunt to the left side of the infield. Jaso capped the scoring in the frame by lining a double to the left-center gap.

Xavier Cedeno followed Archer in the seventh by working around an infield hit to put together his 11th straight scoreless appearance. In the bottom of the frame, Shaffer put together his most impressive at-bat of his young career.

Not wanting to be beat for a third time, Richie saw four straight sliders from Colon — two caught the zone, yet Shaffer didn’t bite on the two that were well off the plate.

location.php-pitchSel=112526&game=gid_2015_08_09_nynmlb_tbamlb_1&batterX=54&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1

With the count squared, Colon threw an 87 mph fastball on the inner half of the plate. Shaffer crushed the errant heater, gladly depositing it into the left-field seats.

Shaffer became the first Ray with at least three hits and a homer in his Tropicana Field debut since Akinori Iwamura in 2007.

Steve Geltz worked around a leadoff single in the eighth, and Jake McGee, pitching on a third straight day entered for the ninth. While he hit Juan Lagares with one out in the ninth, McGee struck out Plawecki and forced Granderson into ground ball out to second to end the game. For the lefty, it was his sixth save of the season.

After an off-day Monday, Tampa Bay will begin a two-game Interleague series with the Atlanta Braves at Tropicana Field on Tuesday.

Noteworthiness

— Don’t forget, just four days until our next watch party at Green Bench Brewing Company. First pitch is at 8:05, hope to see you there!

— Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) writes, after coming back from the disabled list, Tampa Bay Rays reliever Kirby Yates has given up home runs at a remarkable rate. Will it continue? Probably not.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Bounce Back With a 5-4 Win

Grady Sizemore hits a two-run home run off of pitcher Noah Syndergaard in the first inning of a game on August 8, 2015 at Tropicana Field. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Grady Sizemore hits a two-run home run off of pitcher Noah Syndergaard in the first inning of a game on August 8, 2015 at Tropicana Field. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

After dropping a 4-3 nail biter on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays tagged Mets’ starter Noah Syndergaard for four runs in the first inning of Saturday’s contest, overcoming an early 3-0 deficit, and going on to defeat New York by a 5-4 margin. Tampa Bay snapped the Mets’ seven-game win streak, as four relievers combined to throw four innings of no hit ball. Blessed by a pair of Angels and Twins losses, the Rays start the day four games out in Wildcard race.

The Mets’ hitters ambushed starter Nathan Karns early, resulting in a three-run, four-hit first inning. The first four batters — Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy, Yoenis Cespedes, and Lucas Duda — provided Syndergaard with a sizable lead after tagging Karns for a solo shot, two doubles and a single in the top of the frame. But the Rays hurler eventually settled down and retired the next three batters in order.

Down but not out, Tampa Bay answered in the bottom half against Syndergaard. John Jaso drilled a ground rule double that bounced over the wall in center field, and Grady Sizemore followed with a long two-run blast to right — his second in as many days — to cut the deficit to one.

Then with one out, James Loney singled, and after Logan Forsythe flew out to center, Asdrubal Cabrera, Daniel Nava and Kevin Kiermaier hit back-to-back-to-back base hits, with the latter scoring two runs for a one run Rays advantage. While Kiermaier was able advance to second on the throw, The Outlaw jammed his right thumb on a slide while doing so. He was down several minutes and required attention from Ron Porterfield, the head athletic trainer. Kiermaier, thankfully, was able to stay in the game, although he was seen applying ice and salves to his thumb in between innings to keep the swelling down.

Following the game, Cash sounded concerned for Kiermaier, saying:

To his credit he kind of gutted it out and stayed in there because it definitely wasn’t feeling good. Hopefully with some ice he’ll bounce back and be okay.

Curtis Granderson tied the game at four in the second with a two-out homer off Karns — the second of the game for Granderson, and his 19th of the year. Yet Karn pitched scoreless baseball the next three innings, working around base runners in each. Karns got a little bit of defensive help from Longoria and Cabrera in the third, as they kept Michael Conforto’s two-out infield single from getting to the outfield with Lucas Duda at second.

The score remained even until the fourth when John Jaso worked a one out walk. He swiped second before being wild pitched to third. With two outs, Longoria beat out an infield single which plated the run, giving Tampa Bay a one run lead it would never relinquish.

Xavier Cedeno entered in relief of Karns and worked a clean frame, fanning three batters with one (former Ray Kelly Johnson) reaching on a wild pitch. Cedeno’s pitch was a filthy, sweeping breaking pitch in the dirt that Rivera just couldn’t hold on to.

Steve Geltz pitched the first 1-2-3 inning of the night in the seventh, and Jake McGee followed in eighth by striking out the side in the eighth.

Brad Boxberger bounced back from his tough outing on Friday by putting together a perfect 11 pitch ninth for his 28th save in 31 chances.

…About That Strike Zone

Home plate umpire Tim Welke left a lot of people guessing with his strike zone last night. He called a good number of well executed borderline pitches as balls, only to call a fare share of pitches well outside the zone as strikes.

Looking at his strike zone plots (below), I’m still confused! Here’s how to decipher the plots: green dots are balls, while red dots are strikes. Though it’s hard to delineate whiffs from caught looking strikes, take a look at the number of green dots in the middle (or on the border) of the zone. At least Welke was consistently inconsistent with his terrible calls!


The New What Next

All-Star Chris Archer (10-8, 2.54) will get take the mound on Sunday, opposite of Bartolo Colon (10-10, 4.72 ERA). Archer is 3-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 13 home starts this season. Colon (10-10, 4.72 ERA) will be facing the Rays for the first time since 2012. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/9/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso LF
Sizemore RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Shaffer DH
Guyer CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Neither Kiermaier nor Casali are in today’s lineup following their respective injuries from the night before. Perhaps they are getting a couple of days to get better with the off-day tomorrow.

— According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays locked up pitching coach Jim Hickey for another year of service. Topkin wrote,

Pitching coach Jim Hickey — who would be a hot commodity as a free agent — is signed for next season, as is most of the staff except for 1B coach Rocco Baldelli, who opted for a one-year deal in his first stint.

— Topkin also wrote that more than a few players, not just Chris Archer, were disappointed by the front office’s trade deadline decisions:

More than a few players were disappointed with their bosses’ actions at the trade deadline, both for not adding and for trading away veteran RHP Kevin Jepsen (to the Twins) and OF David DeJesus (to the Angels) for prospects, and especially to teams the Rays might be battling for a playoff spot. Relievers Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee made their point by getting a blowup doll that they dressed in Jepsen’s No. 40 uniform, added an image of his face and kept it in the clubhouse in Chicago. Several Rays posed for pictures with the doll and sent them to Jepsen.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Blown Save, Rays Fall 4-3

Chris Archer #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays gestures as he speaks with teammates in the dugout during the fifth inning of a game against the New York Mets on August 7, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Chris Archer gestures as he speaks with teammates in the dugout during the fifth inning of a game on August 7, 2015. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
In a terrific pitching duel on Friday between Tampa Bay Rays’ hurler Jake Odorizzi and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom, the bullpens ultimately decided the fate. Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger squandered one run leads in the eighth and ninth innings, and despite late homers from Evan Longoria and James Loney, the Rays fell 4-3 to New York.  The Mets have won seven straight, while the Rays have dropped the last two in their final at-bat.

Tampa Bay looked to break the 0-0 tie in the third after Kevin Kiermaier singled to start the inning, and then it appeared Curt Casali was hit by a pitch. Yet it was determined that he swung, and Casali flew out two pitches later. John Jaso grounded hard into an inning ending 4-6-3 double play.

After three innings of two hit ball, Grady Sizemore put the Rays on the board in the fourth when he pulled an 0-1 change up into the right field seats — his fourth homer for the Rays, and the second this week.

Sizemore kept the Rays in front to start the sixth after Wilmer Flores lifted a ball near the short wall in left field. Grady went over the wall in the 162 landing to rob what should have been a solo shot from Flores, keeping the Rays in front.

Jake Odorizzi had just one other tough inning during the front six. He gave up a pair of one-out singles in the third to former Ray Kelly Johnson and Flores. Curtis Granderson sacrificed both runners into scoring position on a deep fly-ball to left, but Daniel Murphy flew out to center to end the inning. That started a string of 10 consecutive batters retired for Odorizzi, who scattered three hits and fanned six over the first six innings.

However, Juan Uribe put the Mets on the board one out into the seventh after crushing a 2-1 slider onto to the tarp in left. Odorizzi was pulled in favor of Steve Geltz after he allowed a two-out walk to Travis d’Arnaud. Geltz got the final out of the inning, setting the stage for some late-inning dramatics.

In the bottom of the frame, Loney followed Uribe’s monster shot with a solo blast of his own off deGrom for a 2-1 advantage. It was Loney’s fourth of the year (is first since July 7th).

With a 2-1 lead in the top of the eighth, Jake McGee entered the ballgame and got the first two outs on a Flores popper to center, and a Granderson grounder to second. But Daniel Murphy turned on a 97 mph fastball, sending it into the right field seats to tie the game.

Longoria answered in the next half inning against reliever Tyler Clippard, sending a backspin solo-shot into deep right-center that just cleared the top of the wall (his 13th of the season).

Brad Boxberger’s less than quality pitching of late has been well documented, both here and in other places. Just a couple of days earlier, the reliever allowed a one out, bases loaded, walk-off walk against the Chicago White Sox. As he took the mound in the ninth, my neighbor in section 143 (at Tropicana Field) looked over to me and said, “I have a bad feeling about this,” as did every Rays’ fan in attendance.

Boxberger quickly committed a throwing error on a routine slow bouncer off the bat of Lucas Duda. The righty followed by uncorking a wild pitch which moved Duda to second, before getting Uribe to pop out. Michael Conforto looped a run-scoring double to left-center, tying the game at three. Logan Forsythe saved a run when he made a diving stop on Travis d’Arnaud’s infield hit to his left, putting runners on the corners. Boxberger coaxed a liner to short out of Johnson, but Flores looped a single to right in front of a diving Brandon Guyer for the go-ahead run.

Now down by one, Kevin Cash pulled Boxberger in favor of Alex Colome, who fanned Granderson swinging on three pitches. But the damage was done.

And though the Rays got a leadoff single from Asdrubal Cabrera (now 18-for-last-36) to put the tying run on the base paths, they couldn’t get anything more against closer Jeurys Familia. Guyer followed Cabby by grounding into an around the horn double play…except he didn’t. After huddling up, the home plate umpire called it a foul ball, which it clearly was. Lightning struck twice when Guyer hit another false ground out on the very next pitch. Yet Cabrera was eventually forced at second on a grounder to third. The Outlaw followed by grounding into what should have been a game ending double play. Flores, however, bobbled the ball couldn’t get the lead runner at second and just barely threw out Kiermaier at first. With two outs and the tying run in scoring position, Casali went down swinging to end the game.

Game over, Rays fall 4-3.

Noteworthiness

Nathan Karns (6-5, 3.37 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, opposite of Noah Syndergaard (6-5, 2.66 ERA). Karns is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two Interleague starts this season — April 12 at Miami and July 21 at Philadelphia — the fifth-lowest Interleague ERA in the Majors. Syndergaard, who recorded the biggest win of his young career on Sunday against the Nationals, has compiled a 6-3 record and 1.80 ERA in his last nine starts, fanning 66 while walking 14 in 60 innings of work. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/8/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso DH
Sizemore LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Nava RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Karns RHP

Noteworthiness

— Boxberger lamented the blown save after the game. On the subject of the throwing error, he said:

I just rushed it, probably had more time, but just rushed it. (It got me off track) a little bit, but with the guys they had coming up I thought I could get a ground ball and get a double play out of it. But it didn’t work out.

Boxberger went on to say:

I didn’t feel like I had everything, but I definitely had enough to try to get through it. Just didn’t work out tonight. …They did a good job of hitting. A couple of those pitches were well-located and they were just able to get the barrel on the ball.

In any case, Cash said there is no plan to change his bullpen usage even though Boxberger has struggled is his last couple of outings.

— Sizemore became one of four players to hit a HR and rob a HR in the same game this season. The list also includes J.D. Martinez, Seth Smith, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout.

— Matt Moore was solid in his first start with the Durham Bulls after being optioned to Triple-A. Moore was perfect through the front four innings, finishing by allowing just one run on two hits and a walk in six innings with seven strikeouts.