Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays route World Series champs, 12-0

Kevin Kiermaier hit one of three homers on the night, a sixth inning three-run shot. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
Kevin Kiermaier hit one of three homers on the night, a sixth inning three-run shot. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
The Tampa Bay Rays rolled to their first victory over the Kansas City Royals of the season Wednesday night, crushing the reigning World Series champs, 12-0 — their largest margin of victory of 2016, and the MLB leading fourth shutout, with two hits or fewer, of the season.

Jake Odorizzi has now gone three consecutive starts without allowing a run (20-2/3 scoreless innings overall. Odo gave up just two hits and two walks while striking out six, and didn’t allow a runner to get beyond second base.

After the righty posted a perfect first inning, Logan Forsythe kicked off the offensive avalanche with a double to left-center off Edison Volquez. Kevin Kiermaier, hitting second for the second straight day, followed with a single to left-center to put runners  the corners for Evan Longoria, who hit a line drive sacrifice-fly to right field for an early lead. Brad Miller was next, and he hit a grounder just wide of first, while Volquez was late covering the bag, allowing Miller to reach on an infield RBI hit. Steven Souza Jr. capped the rally with a three-run homer to left — his first since June fourth.

Miller extended the lead in the third inning with a 436 foot homer to center in the third inning — his 18th homer of the season, and the 17th as a shortstop, extending the franchise mark.

Nick Franklin helped add to the lead in the fifth after Miller reached on an error by Volquez to lead off the inning. Miller moved up to second on Corey Dickerson’s groundout before Franklin singled up the middle to make it 6-0.

One run of support — much less six — was more than enough for Odorizzi, who was excellent. Aside from a 20+ pitch sixth inning, the righty was efficient, throwing 14 of 22 first pitch strikes, and 68 strikes out of 108 total pitches (64% K%) over the span of his outing. The first walk he allowed in three starts came with two outs in the fourth inning against Eric Hosmer, while the two hits he allowed were scattered singles in the second and sixth innings respectively. Odo’s split-change was impressive, as it danced all over the the zone to the dismay of the Royals batters, who whiffed at it eight times total and three times for strike three.

Tampa Bay blew the game wide open in the sixth, and it all began with single to left (Curt Casali) and a walk (Forsythe), which signaled the end of Volquez’s night. The Outlaw welcomed reliever Chien-Ming Wang with a three-run homer, that landed near the Dan Johnson seat in right field, giving the Rays a hefty nine-run advantage. They weren’t done though! Tampa Bay put up two more runs on a Wang error, and a Tim Beckham RBI groundout.

Dickerson plated the final run of the contest in the seventh, on a bases-loaded walk. All told, with the exception of Beckham, everyone in the lineup reached base Wednesday night. Credit where it’s due, T-Bex was able to drive in a run.

The tandem of Enny Romero and Ryan Garton followed with three perfect innings to complete the shutout.

Tampa Bay entered the game with an 0-5 record against the World Series champs, and a -16 run differential — having been outscored 28-12. They ended the night with a -4 run differential, with one game left to be played against Kansas City.

The New What

Drew Smyly (2-11, 5.42 ERA) will take the mound against Ian Kennedy (6-9, 4.41 ERA) in the season finale against the Royals. Smyly snapped an 11-start winless streak Saturday against the Yankees, collecting his second straight quality start. He has allowed a career-high 22 homers this season; five of which against lefties. In 14 games vs. the Royals, Smyly is 4-2 with a 4.09 ERA. Kennedy is coming off no-decision against the Rangers in which he allowed just one run over seven innings. He, however, has allowed a Major League co-leading 26 homers. Kennedy is 1-4 with a 5.40 in seven starts against Tampa Bay. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/4/16 Starting Lineup

Noteworthiness

— Three Rays are set to make rehab appearances for the advanced Class-A Stone Crabs Thursday night. Alex Cobb (Tommy John surgery) is slated to throw three innings in his fourth rehab start, Matt Duffy (Achilles strain) will slot in at shortstop, and OF Mikie Mahtook (left hand fracture), who went 1-for-3 Wednesday in right, will be the designated hitter.

Rays Roster Moves: Introducing Tampa Bay’s new shortstop, Matt Duffy

Matt Duffy, now formerly of the San Francisco Giants. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)
Matt Duffy, now formerly of the San Francisco Giants. (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline came to pass Monday afternoon, and contrary to the baseball analysts and part-time bloggers who assumed otherwise, the Tampa Bay Rays didn’t go into full fire-sale mode. Rather Matt Silverman put together three trades, with the highest profile deal being that of Matt Moore, who was moved to San Francisco for INF Matt Duffy and a pair of minor league prospects.

Many have asked, “What does Duffy bring to the Rays?” The simple answer: projected Logan Forsythe and Ben Zobrist like offensive numbers, and stellar defense.

Offense

The 25 year-old Duffy is a high-contact hitter who uses all fields. He had breakout 2015 season, posting a .295 BA/.334 OBP/.428 SLG/.764 OPS/.336 BABIP in 612 plate appearances, with 12 homes, 77 runs, and 77 RBI. His 14% strikeout ratio (K%) this season is almost 10 points lower than Tampa Bay’s current combined K%, and while he doesn’t hit a ton of homers, he tends to spray the ball all over the field — something that is valued in this post-shift world — and victimizes both lefties and righties equally (.280 BA vs LHP and .281 BA vs RHP, .316 wOBA vs LHP and .317 wOBA vs RHP).


Source: FanGraphs

Duffy fell upon hard times at the plate this season, which Dave Cameron (FanGraphs) wrote about following the trade deadline:

Duffy’s track record remains quite short, and in 2016, his profile looks something like the regression-to-the-mean you might have expected if you remained skeptical based on his lack of physical skills. After running a 116 wRC+ last year, he’s put up just an 88 wRC+ this year, with his ISO and BABIP both going the wrong way. At that level of offense, Duffy can be seen as Juan Uribe on a diet, or the current version of Chase Headley.

However, it’s reasonable to assume he can bounce back because Duffy doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls, and he uses the entire field. To quote Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay), expect him to improve his 2016 batting line just by getting a bit more lucky.

Kevin Cash took to the airwaves with 620 WDAE Tuesday afternoon and praised the newest Ray. The skipper also indicated that Duffy’s power would increase as he further develops and gets stronger. There’s evidence to support that line of thinking, which otherwise might be considered baseless consternation.

In April, Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) published a piece titled Launch Angle, Matt Duffy, and Potential Power Surges, which posited that while Duffy doesn’t hit a ton of homers, he is one of the players who most often hits the ball at the operative launch angle.

In short, Duffy doesn’t need to undergo a massive transformation because he already posses a good home run swing. Rather he “he needs is to fill out, to get yoked, to add muscle, which is directly related to bat speed. That will give him exit velocity to take better advantage of his good swing plane.”

Sarris opines that “Duffy’s 87.56 mph average on balls in this launch angle sits better in a group with Ian Kinsler (88.3), Nick Markakis (87.83), and even Michael Brantley (89.12). There’s a decent range of outcomes here for Duffy, and if he can even push it to Buster Posey (92.32) level, then there’s another 10 homers in that bat.”

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The highlighted names represent players that have either recently broken out, power-wise, or are young enough that you can believe that they may break out in the future. (Screen-shot courtesy of FanGraphs)

The addition of Matt Duffy gives the Rays something they have needed desperately for some time, a consistent contact hitter that can drive in runs. That’s not all though, Duffy’s also a plus defender.

Defense

Duffy is a Gold Glove caliber defender who, according to Silverman, will become the everyday shortstop once he returns from the DL this month — much to the chagrin of Brad Miller, who will get his at-bats at first base and in the outfield.

After playing shortstop in college and the minors, Duffy was moved to third base with San Francisco because of a pretty good shortstop named Brandon Crawford. Perhaps you’ve heard of him?

Even though he was placed in a position that might have been uncomfortable, Matt fared incredible well at the hot corner, ranking high in UZR (10.6 runs above average, with 7.7 of those runs attributed to his range) and DRS (+12 runs saved) in 1150-1/3 innings last season. He’s still in the top 12 for DRS despite time missed this season due to injury.

You may be asking, “If he played at third for the better part of two seasons, why take the job away from Miller now?” Good question, the answer is two-fold.

  1. Evan Longoria is the face of the franchise, and he’s also an above average third baseman. Silverman showed no interest in trading Longoria at the deadline, nor is it likely that he’ll deal Longo in the foreseeable future.
  2. Miller hasn’t been the most suitable candidate in the six hole.

Malinowski summed up that line of thinking well,

The eye test tells us that he’s lacked range, and the stats stamp an exclamation mark on it, with UZR setting him at 11.5 runs below average (a whopping -30.7 per 150 games!) and DRS giving him an even worse -14.

Matt Silverman was interviewed by Todd Kalas during the ballgame Monday night, allowing that the bat of Brad Miller is incredibly valuable to the team, and the President of Baseball Operations intends to keep him in the lineup moving forward, although at first base or in the outfield.

Noteworthiness

— Unfortunately Matt Duffy’s 30 pound cat, Skeeter, won’t be making the trip to Tampa Bay because “it’s too hot” and “too humid” for the, urm…little guy.

The New What Next: Rays vs Royals — a series preview

Corey Dickerson now has 36 extra base hits on the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
After hitting a double off the wall in center field on Sunday, Corey Dickerson has collected 36 extra base hits on the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to open a four-game series against the Kansas City Royals in the midst of trade rumors that threaten to tear the band apart (to an extent). In any case, the Royals enter the Trop having lost their last four games, while the Rays have won four straight.

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Kansas City is coming off a failed weekend series against the Rangers. The Royals dropped the first three games, collecting just combined seven runs, before dropping the finale to the Rangers 5-3. As for the Rays, they effectively made the Yankees sellers at the trade deadline by outscoring, and sweeping, the Evil Empire 16-7.

There is a larger issue with the Royals. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kansas City currently owns the lowest win percentage in a calendar month of at least 15 games for a defending World Series champions. The culprit? Inconsistent pitching.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay’s pitching has looked really good since the All-Star Break.

We’re starting to see a trend: When you pitch well and play good defense, you give yourself a chance to win consecutive ballgames, said Rays manager Kevin Cash.

Consider this, prior to Blake Snell’s pretty good 5-1/3 inning affair outing in the series finale on Sunday, Rays starters found themselves on a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts — totaling a 2.10 ERA and 2.86 FIP during that stretch. Juxtapose that with Kansas City, who posted a 4.78 ERA and 5.18 FIP over the same span.

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Kevin Cash will Start Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42 ERA), Matt Moore (7-7, 4.08 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (5-5, 3.88 ERA), and Drew Smyly (3-11, 5.29 ERA) over the next four days. Ned Yost will counter with Duffy (6-1, 3.22 ERA), Yordano Ventura (6-9, 4.88 ERA), Edinson Volquez (8-9, 4.70 ERA), and Ian Kennedy (6-9, 4.23 ERA).

There’s a possibility that either Archer, Moore, Odorizzi, or to a lesser extent Smyly, could be dealt before Monday’s 4:00 PM MLB trade deadline. Both Archer and Moore have been mentioned as possibilities for the Los Angeles Dodgers, though the price would be expensive to pry an All-Star pitcher from Tampa Bay. That is to say the situation is fluid, and the pitching probables are subject to change.

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Rays Series Starters

Archer allowed three runs (one earned) on four hits over seven innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, striking out eight and walking none. The righty has demonstrated good control of late, walking two or fewer batters in each of his last four starts after doing so just four times in his previous 11 outings.

Moore allowed one unearned run on four hits and four walks over 6-2/3 innings against the Dodgers on Wednesday, striking out five. The southpaw got back to his early season form in the month of July, going 3-2 with a 2.44 ERA — his best ERA of any month this season.

Odorizzi fired 6-2/3 scoreless innings in Friday’s 5-1 victory against the Yankees, scattering six hits while striking out five. The righty threw 71 of his 104 pitches for strikes (68% strike ratio) while inducing 13 whiffs. Odorizzi hasn’t given up a run in the last two starts (a span of 14-2/3 innings), while only surrendering two earned runs over the 20-2/3 innings. It’s easily Odorizzi’s best stretch of pitching this season.

Smyly allowed two earned runs on four hits and a walk over six innings in a 6-3 win over the Yankees on Saturday, striking out six. The southpaw now has collected two straight quality starts and may finally be figuring things out in 2016, this after struggling through the worst season of his career. Smyly has given up just three earned runs over 12 frames spanning his last two trips to the mound. The win Saturday was his first since May 16 against Toronto.

Royals Series Starters

Duffy allowed three runs in six innings of a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday. He struck out five and allowed seven hits and two walks. Duffy’s quietly piled up the quality starts lately, notching five in his last six games. Be that as it may, not all of his starts have been impressive; Duffy can thank his team for keeping him without a loss since June 6th. In Kansas City’s last 25 games, the Royals are 5-0 when Danny Duffy (who takes the mound in the series opener) starts and 2-18 when he doesn’t. The righty allowed three runs on seven hits (including a homer) against the Rays back on the first of June. Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-2, HR, RBI), Logan Forsythe (2-3), Brandon Guyer (3-5, HR, RBI), Evan Longoria (3-7, 2B, RBI, BB), Brad Miller (3-10, 3B, 2 RBI), Steve Pearce (1-4)

Ventura threw an eight-inning complete game against Texas on Thursday, surrendering three runs on four hits and a walk, while striking out six. The righty gave up three solo shots and just one other hit, but that was just enough to lose with Cole Hamels on the mound for the Rangers. It was the first complete game of Ventura’s MLB career, and it came after he failed to finish six innings in three of the five starts prior to Thursday’s start. Ventura’s already set a career worst 17 homers allowed this year, which could bode well for the home run hitting Rays. Key matchups: Brandon Guyer (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (2-7)

Volquez pitched six innings of six run (five earned) baseball, allowing nine hits and two walks while striking out five. The right hander has allowed four or more runs for the ninth time 22 starts this season. Volquez has cobbled together consecutive wins just once since April 21, and his 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP isn’t what one would call sparking. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-8, 2 2B, RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (1-4, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8), Evan Longoria (5-15, 2B, 3 RBI)

Kennedy surrendered one run over seven innings versus the Rangers on Saturday. He walked none and struck out six. Despite a few solid outings this month, Kennedy will finish July with an 0-3 record. Saturday marked just the fourth time this season (21 starts) in which the righty completed seven innings, and it was his first walk-free outing since 2015. In his start against Tampa Bay on May 30th, Kennedy allowed just one run on three hits and five walks over six innings. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (4-12), Brad Miller (3-4, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)

Rays Roster Moves: Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Open Thread

Steve Pearce (pictured) is one of the Rays who's drawn trade interest and speculation leading up to the August 1 trade deadline. (Photo Credit: )
Steve Pearce (pictured) is one of the Rays who’s drawn trade interest and speculation leading up to the August 1 trade deadline. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Steve Nesius)
Monday, August 1st marks the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. Currently the Tampa Bay Rays have a bevy of players ― Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez, and Steve Pearce ― for whom trade rumors have circulated the last few weeks. While it’s an automatic assumption that a player like Pearce will be wearing another team’s jersey after the 4:00 PM deadline, other’s, like the aforementioned hurlers, may still call Tampa Bay home at least until the offseason, when Matt Silverman will be tasked with assembling a competitive ball club for the 2017 season.

A question begs, what moves might Silverman make? With that question in mind, consider this an open thread to document any rumors and moves leading up to the four-o-clock hour. Note: this thread will be updated when/if any roster moves are made, or as news breaks. Refresh your browser and keep checking back!

July 31, 2016

2:00 Update:

3:22 Update:

5:00 Update:

6:30 Update:

7:00 Update:

Orioles likely out on Erasmo Ramirez

8:00 Update:

8:45 Update:

10:30 Update:

11:00 Update:

11:10 Update:

August 1, 2016

3:00 AM Update:

6:58 Update:

Who might the Rays deal and target at the deadline? We wrote about both; Twitter links follow.

7:30 Update:

9:00 Update: 

Seven hours to go…

9:10 Update:

10:00 Update:

11:05 Update:

11:45 Update:

(I’m guessing Sam Blum meant wouldn’t be shocking, not would)

12:00 Update:

Four hours to go…

12:30 Update:

(In reference to the Dodgers’ acquisition of Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from Oakland.)

1:15 Update:

2:00 Update:

Giants, Pirates, and Astros still looking at Rays pitching; less than two hours remain.

2:10 Update:

2:15 Update:

2:35 Update:

2:40 Update:

2:45 Update:

2:50 Update:

Rays deal Brandon Guyer to Cleveland for a pair of prospects, minor league OF Nathan Lukes and minor league RHP Jhonleider Salinas.

3:11 Update:

3:20 Update:

The good folks at the Process Report want to remind you that the Rays traded Guyer because they have a player within the organization with a similar skill set, Mikie Mahtook.

3:30 Update:

3:35 Update:

3:40 Update:

3:45 Update:

FYI, Rays were looking at Joey Gallo or Jurickson Profar for a hurler. If neither is available, don’t expect a deal between Rangers and Rays.

3:51 Update:

Nine minutes left…

3:58 Update:

4:00 Update:

The trade deadline is officially over, although a move can be announced later.

…But

4:10 Update:

4:15 Update:

4:15 FINAL update:

…And we’re done! To review, the Tampa Bay Rays traded Brandon Guyer to Cleveland for prospects RHP Jhonleider Salinas and OF Nathan Lukes, Steve Pearce to the Orioles for minor league catcher Jonah Heim, and Matt Moore to San Francisco for SS Lucius Fox, INF Matt Duffy, and RHP Michael Santos. More on the moves to come.

The New What Next: Rays look for series sweep of Yankees; Tampa Bay trade rumors

With catches like this gem from last night, it makes you wonder where the Rays would be hadn't Kevin Kiermaier missed two months of the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
With catches like this gem from last night, it makes you wonder where the Rays would be hadn’t Kevin Kiermaier missed two months of the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After taking the series from the New York Yankees on Saturday, the Tampa Bay Rays will try to do something they have yet to accomplish this season — sweep a series at home. A win today also would be a season-high tying, fourth straight victory for the Rays.

The New What Next

Tampa Bay enters the series finale with 10 straight quality starts after Drew Smyly allowed just two runs over six innings Saturday in the 6-3 win over the Yankees — tying the second longest run in franchise history.  The Rays’ longest quality start streak occurred in 2013 (June 30-through-July 14, 2013; 15 games).

LHP Blake Snell (2-4, 3.05 ERA) will take the mound this afternoon opposite of Michael Pineda (5-9, 5.00 ERA).

Snell posted a pair of quality starts on the last road trip. The challenge for Snell will be to put together another solid start against the Yankees — the first team that will twice at the Major League level. Pineda has been good over last two starts, allowing only one run total over 13 innings. However, in two 2016 starts against the Tampa Bay, Pineda has given up 13 runs and five homers in 8-2/3 innings. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview

Rays 7/31/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe DH
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson LF
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Beckham 2B
Franklin 1B
Maile C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have hit five homers in the last two games, giving them 133 through 102 games — the most they have ever had at this point of the season. Brad Miller now has an extra-base hit in four consecutive games, the first time he’s accomplished that.

— Injury notes. Chase Whitley (Tommy John surgery) made his first rehab start at the Double-A level Saturday, throwing three hitless innings with the Montgomery Biscuits, while walking one and punching out five; all on just 34 pitches. OF Desmond Jennings went 2-for-5 with a homer yesterday afternoon with the Charlotte Stone Crabs, playing the entire game in left field.

— Trade rumors. Rumor has it that the Tigers have become increasingly involved in the starting pitching market, and they are looking mostly at number three and four type starters. Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wonders if they may target Drew Smyly for a reunion?

It is the opinion of Jayson Stark (ESPN) and Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports) that Houston and Pittsburgh may try to cobble together a deal for one of the Rays’ starting pitchers. Austin Meadows and Josh Bell, both of the Pirates, are on Matt Silverman’s radar.

Silverman was photographed last night, possibly wheeling and dealing, unbeknownst to the Rays fans below.

Interestingly enough, Steve Pearce is not in the lineup today. Might something be in play? Or might Kevin Cash be trying to get another left-handed bat the the lineup (Nick Franklin; switch hitter) against the right-handed Pineda?

Chris Cotillo (SB Nation) tweeted that both the Orioles and Dodgers have interest in RHP Erasmo Ramirez. As I mentioned Friday, Silverman has Dodgers’ catcher Austin Barnes in his sights.

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