The MLB non-waiver trade deadline came to pass Monday afternoon, and contrary to the baseball analysts and part-time bloggers who assumed otherwise, the Tampa Bay Rays didn’t go into full fire-sale mode. Rather Matt Silverman put together three trades, with the highest profile deal being that of Matt Moore, who was moved to San Francisco for INF Matt Duffy and a pair of minor league prospects.
Many have asked, “What does Duffy bring to the Rays?” The simple answer: projected Logan Forsythe and Ben Zobrist like offensive numbers, and stellar defense.
Offense
The 25 year-old Duffy is a high-contact hitter who uses all fields. He had breakout 2015 season, posting a .295 BA/.334 OBP/.428 SLG/.764 OPS/.336 BABIP in 612 plate appearances, with 12 homes, 77 runs, and 77 RBI. His 14% strikeout ratio (K%) this season is almost 10 points lower than Tampa Bay’s current combined K%, and while he doesn’t hit a ton of homers, he tends to spray the ball all over the field — something that is valued in this post-shift world — and victimizes both lefties and righties equally (.280 BA vs LHP and .281 BA vs RHP, .316 wOBA vs LHP and .317 wOBA vs RHP).
Source: FanGraphs
Duffy fell upon hard times at the plate this season, which Dave Cameron (FanGraphs) wrote about following the trade deadline:
Duffy’s track record remains quite short, and in 2016, his profile looks something like the regression-to-the-mean you might have expected if you remained skeptical based on his lack of physical skills. After running a 116 wRC+ last year, he’s put up just an 88 wRC+ this year, with his ISO and BABIP both going the wrong way. At that level of offense, Duffy can be seen as Juan Uribe on a diet, or the current version of Chase Headley.
However, it’s reasonable to assume he can bounce back because Duffy doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls, and he uses the entire field. To quote Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay), expect him to improve his 2016 batting line just by getting a bit more lucky.
Kevin Cash took to the airwaves with 620 WDAE Tuesday afternoon and praised the newest Ray. The skipper also indicated that Duffy’s power would increase as he further develops and gets stronger. There’s evidence to support that line of thinking, which otherwise might be considered baseless consternation.
In April, Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) published a piece titled Launch Angle, Matt Duffy, and Potential Power Surges, which posited that while Duffy doesn’t hit a ton of homers, he is one of the players who most often hits the ball at the operative launch angle.
In short, Duffy doesn’t need to undergo a massive transformation because he already posses a good home run swing. Rather he “he needs is to fill out, to get yoked, to add muscle, which is directly related to bat speed. That will give him exit velocity to take better advantage of his good swing plane.”
Sarris opines that “Duffy’s 87.56 mph average on balls in this launch angle sits better in a group with Ian Kinsler (88.3), Nick Markakis (87.83), and even Michael Brantley (89.12). There’s a decent range of outcomes here for Duffy, and if he can even push it to Buster Posey (92.32) level, then there’s another 10 homers in that bat.”
The addition of Matt Duffy gives the Rays something they have needed desperately for some time, a consistent contact hitter that can drive in runs. That’s not all though, Duffy’s also a plus defender.
Defense
Duffy is a Gold Glove caliber defender who, according to Silverman, will become the everyday shortstop once he returns from the DL this month — much to the chagrin of Brad Miller, who will get his at-bats at first base and in the outfield.
Brad Miller is not happy with being moved from SS. He feels he’s done everything to deserve the position. Called it a punch to the gut.
— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) August 2, 2016
Miller was called into the manager’s office before yesterday’s game and was told that Duffy at SS gave the team the best chance to win.
— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) August 2, 2016
Brad Miller: “They make the decisions. But obviously Im pretty disappointed. I feel like I did everything I needed to do to keep the job.”
— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) August 2, 2016
After playing shortstop in college and the minors, Duffy was moved to third base with San Francisco because of a pretty good shortstop named Brandon Crawford. Perhaps you’ve heard of him?
Even though he was placed in a position that might have been uncomfortable, Matt fared incredible well at the hot corner, ranking high in UZR (10.6 runs above average, with 7.7 of those runs attributed to his range) and DRS (+12 runs saved) in 1150-1/3 innings last season. He’s still in the top 12 for DRS despite time missed this season due to injury.
You may be asking, “If he played at third for the better part of two seasons, why take the job away from Miller now?” Good question, the answer is two-fold.
- Evan Longoria is the face of the franchise, and he’s also an above average third baseman. Silverman showed no interest in trading Longoria at the deadline, nor is it likely that he’ll deal Longo in the foreseeable future.
- Miller hasn’t been the most suitable candidate in the six hole.
Malinowski summed up that line of thinking well,
The eye test tells us that he’s lacked range, and the stats stamp an exclamation mark on it, with UZR setting him at 11.5 runs below average (a whopping -30.7 per 150 games!) and DRS giving him an even worse -14.
Matt Silverman was interviewed by Todd Kalas during the ballgame Monday night, allowing that the bat of Brad Miller is incredibly valuable to the team, and the President of Baseball Operations intends to keep him in the lineup moving forward, although at first base or in the outfield.
Noteworthiness
— Unfortunately Matt Duffy’s 30 pound cat, Skeeter, won’t be making the trip to Tampa Bay because “it’s too hot” and “too humid” for the, urm…little guy.
A photo posted by Skeeter Duffy (@duffcat35) on