The New What Next: Rays vs. Yankees — a series preview

The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays to cap a winning homestand. They opened season a franchise-best 5-2. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays departed from the Sunshine State on Sunday, en route to New York where they will start a three-game/four day set against the Yankees Monday afternoon — the second series against the Bronx Bummers in a week and a half.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay capped a massively successful 5-2 homestand with another come-from-behind win against the Blue Jays, a 7-2 contest that included a triplet of homers by Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza Jr., and Jesus Sucre. The 5-2 start marks the Rays’ best seven game start in team history, while they sit three games over .500 for the first time since July 2, 2015.

The Yankees, on the other hand, suffered their second consecutive series loss, this time to the Orioles; although they did salvage a win on Sunday for just their second win of the season. Speaking of losses, New York placed catcher Gary Sanchez on the 10-day disabled list with a right biceps strain that he incurred during an at-bat against Baltimore on Saturday.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Kevin Cash will throw Alex Cobb (1-0, 1.59 ERA), Blake Snell (0-1, 5.40 ERA), and Matt Andriese (0-0, 9.00 ERA) over the next three games. Joe Girardi will counter with Michael Pineda (0-1, 9.82 ERA), Luis Severino (0-0, 7.20 ERA), and Masahiro Tanaka (0-1, 11.74 ERA).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Alex Cobb looked like, well…Alex Cobb on Wednesday, holding the Yankees to one run on four hits and a walk, while striking out four in 5-2/3 innings to earn the win. Yet with a 4.45 FIP and a minuscule .188 BABIP over the balance of his start, one can’t help but wonder how much of the favorable outcome had to do with good luck. In any case, including Wednesday’s win, the right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.82 ERA over his career against the Yankees, and 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium. He’s even better in daytime starts, collecting an 11-8 record with a 2.73 ERA. That he’s facing the Yankees during the day at Yankee Stadium holds a good omen for Cobb; no whammies.

Michael Pineda gets the call for the Yankees’ home opener, after surrendering four runs and eight hits over 3-2/3 innings to the Rays. Pineda is looking to snap a career-long 11-start win drought, with his last victory coming on August 5, 2016. He, however, might have his work set out for him against Tampa Bay, a team that he hasn’t fared well against over his career (2-5, 4.65 ERA against the Rays). To his credit, Pineda has good stuff — a worm killer of a cutter, a whiffy slider, and a hard swing and miss changeup — although he tends lose “it” once or twice a game, as evidenced by his last start against Tampa Bay. It’ll be up to the Rays to take advantage of Pineda when he starts to lose command and control of his pitches. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-14, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-20, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 4 BB), Brad Miller (7-20, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (5-14, HR, 2 RBI, Derek Norris (1-2, 2 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-2), Steven Souza Jr. (10-21, 3 2B, 4 HR, 7 RBI)

Blake Snell allowed five runs in 6-2/3 innings in his first start of the year Thursday. The southpaw, however, was better than his line suggests, as one swing of the bat resulted in a grand slam from Kendrys Morales. His downfall continues to be his walks, and he had five of them against Toronto. Snell went 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA at Yankee Stadium last season.

Luis Severino pitched well throughout most of his season debut, yet a poorly placed fastball resulted in a three-run homer by Manny Machado — similar to Snell, his opponent on Wednesday. Severino boasts a 95 mph four seam fastball, a hard changeup, and a low ’90s slider, and has posted a 3-1 record with a 3.47 ERA in seven games (three starts) against Tampa Bay. However, he is 4-6 with a 4.93 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (2-2, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (3-6, 2B, HR, RBI, BB)

Matt Andriese, who appears to be the weakest link in the Rays starting rotation, lasted just four innings Friday against Toronto, the fifth time since the start of last season he’s been unable to finish five innings (in 20 starts). He went 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA in two 2016 starts at Yankee Stadium, and 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA against the Yankees overall.

Masahiro Tanaka has been rather disappointing thus far, surrendering a career-high seven earned runs in just 2-2/3 innings against the Rays, and three runs over five innings against the Orioles. Tanaka walked four and hit two batters in that start. Tanaka typically boasts a potent four-pitch repertoire: a 91 mph sinker, an 88 mph splitter, a 92 mph four-seam fastball, and an 84 mph slider. He also rarely throws a 79 mph curveball and a 91 mph cutter. That mix has been spotty at best over his last 7-2/3 innings of work. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, 2B), Corey Dickerson (6-16, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (6-12, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (1-2)

Noteworthiness

— All three Rays home runs Sunday came on two-strike counts: Corey Dickerson (1-2), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2), Jesus Sucre (0-2).

— Souza has six RBI in his past three games.

— Dickerson has reached base at least twice in five straight games.

LBWMF: Rays walk it off against the Blue Jays, 3-2

The Tampa Bay Rays celebrate after their first walk-off win Saturday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A day after slugging their way to a 10-8 win over Toronto, the Tampa Bay Rays edged out the Blue Jays in extra innings, 3–2, on a bases-loaded walk-off walk by Brad Miller — clinching their first winning home stand of the season.

Chris Archer started the game by retiring the first 12 batters he faced — six on strikeouts. In the fifth inning, Kendrys Morales singled to right, on an 0–2 pitch, to become the first baserunner for the Jays, however, he was erased on a double play later in the frame.

Knotted at zero in the bottom of the inning, Derek Norris led off the frame with a single to left, before Mallex Smith earned a walk. Tim Beckham followed by slapping a grounder to third, although a good takeout slide by Smith prevented a double play. With runners on the corners and just one out, Corey Dickerson lined an RBI single to center, giving the Rays the lead. Aaron Sanchez, who started frame having thrown just 28 pitches, collected himself and got both Kevin Kiermaier and Evan Longoria to hit soft liners to end the threat.

Aside from a two-out single by Kevin Pillar in the sixth, Archer sailed through the inning before retaking the mound with the lead in the seventh. The Rays’ ace lost the zone, however, and issued back-to-back walks to Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista, bringing Morales to the plate. After slicing a foul ball about a foot off the line, Morales ripped a 95 mph fastball to Brad Miller, who started a 4-6-3 double play that moved Donaldson to third. Just one out away from posting another goose egg, Troy Tulowitzki grounded a ball past the diving Tim Beckham for the Jays’ first run. Archer mowed down Steve Pearce to end the inning, but the damage was done.

Tampa Bay had a chance to take the lead back in the bottom of the seventh after Smith walked with one out, then moved to second on an errant pickoff attempt. Yet Dickerson struck out on Sanchez’s full count fastball to end the inning.

For whatever reason, Rays skipper Kevin Cash allowed Archer to take the mound in the top of the eighth. Archer promptly walked Russell Martin before Justin Smoak singled him to third. The right-hander bounced back with a Pillar pop out in foul territory, and a Devon Travis strikeout on four pitches. Yet Donaldson, who stepped into the box for the fourth time, hit a 1-0 RBI single to center, scoring Martin.

Archer’s day was done after 7-2/3 innings, after relinquishing two runs and striking out eight.

Tommy Hunter took over in relief and struck out Bautista to keep it a one-run affair. Make no mistake, Archer was very good over the course of his start, and this certainly isn’t meant to take anything away from him. But perhaps Hunter should have started the eighth after Archer labored through the seventh.

The Rays were able to answer in the bottom of the frame against Joe Biagini. Longo singled to right-center off with one out, and Miller walked on four pitches, bringing the red-hot Steven Souza Jr. (who was 8-21 this year going into the at-bat) to the plate. Souza ripped a single to center, knotting the game at two. Morrison and Norris flew out on the next two pitches, leaving the game even.

Tampa Bay and Toronto traded scoring chances until the bottom of the eleventh, when Smith got the winning rally started with a double to right off Casey Lawrence. After Beckham bunted Smith to third, John Gibbons inexplicably put the new intentional walk rule into effect no once but twice, waving both Dickerson and Kiermaier over, and bringing Longoria to the plate with the bases juiced. Longoria struck out swinging on three pitches, yet Miller played the role of walk-off hero when he worked a six-pitch walk that allowed Smith to cross the plate.

The New What Next

The Rays, 4–2 on the season, will try to win a third straight game on Sunday to wrap up the season’s first home stand. Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), the 4–2 start ties the franchise record for the best record after six games. Jake Odorizzi will take the mound opposite of Marco Estrada.

In 11 starts against Toronto, Odorizzi has a 3.26 ERA, and he’s been even better at home, posting a 1.35 ERA. Odorizzi gave up four runs on seven hits, including two homers, and two walks while striking out four over six innings against New York on Tuesday.

Estrada has had similar success against Tampa Bay, collecting a 2.70 ERA over six starts and 10 appearances. Estrada somehow has out pitched his peripherals. His 88 mph fastball and 8.5 K/9 outwardly make no sense, yet the past two seasons have been great for Estrada. When he’s healthy, he can pitch deeply into games, get average to above average strike outs, and control his walks. However, when he loses his command and control he becomes a home run pitcher because of his affinity for pitching up in the zone. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Morrison (3-11, 3B, HR, 4 RBI)

Rays 4/9/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson DH
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Souza Jr RF
Morrison 1B
Robertson SS
Smith LF
Sucre C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Mallex Smith reached base five times last night and stole two bases, the first time that’s happened for a number nine hitter in the major leagues since Billy Hamilton did so in 2013.

— Speaking of Smith, Bradley Neveu (DRaysBay) wrote about how he owned the Jays on Saturday:

  • He legged out a would-be-groundout into a single in the 3rd inning
  • He broke up a high leverage double play in the 5th inning
  • He drew an errant pick off attempt from Aaron Sanchez in the 7th inning
  • He took 3rd base on a wild pitch in the 9th inning.
  • If you are ever asked to define the word “distracted,” show a video of Blue Jays reliever Joe Biagini pitching to Dickerson in the 9th, so preoccupied with Smith at first that he seems almost to forget that there’s a batter at the plate (although Dickerson did still manage to strike out.)

— It didn’t appear that Archer threw any slow sliders last night, focusing mainly on his upper ’80s/low ’90s slider, mid ’90s fastball, and mid ’80s changeup.

LBWMF: Rays hitters bail out pitching staff in 10-8, come from behind win

I call this “The Trop at Civil Twilight.” (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays squandered an early four-run lead Friday night, but rallied to beat Toronto in a wild ball game, 10–8. The game was so wild, in fact, that I’d be doing a huge disservice to everyone by trying to recap it in its entirety. Instead, today’s recap will be made entirely of artifacts — WPA graphs, tweets, video, etc — from the game.


Look at that crazy rollercoaster of a game! (Source: FanGraphs)


(If you spy, with your very little eye, a purple Dinosaur Jr. shirt in section 143, that’s me, your humble blogger)

Daniel Robertson got his first big league hit in the first inning.

And there you have it, your artifact filled recap of Friday night’s come from behind win against the Jays — the first of the season for the Rays.

The New What Next

Chris Archer (1-0, 2.57) will make his second start of the season on Saturday, opposite of right-hander Aaron Sanchez.

Archer posted a strong Opening Day performance on Sunday, holding the Yankees to two runs in seven innings to earn his first win of the season. Archer struck out five and walked one. Last season he went 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts against Toronto.

Sanchez opens as the fifth starter following a slightly delayed start to the spring due to a finger injury. Sanchez was the AL ERA leader last season, and possesses electric stuff — although his strikeout-to-walk ratio and tendency, and a problem with homers to left-handed hitters are his main weaknesses — and could repeat or even improve upon last season’s performance. Key matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-7, 2B), Jesus Sucre (2-3, 2B)

You can read more about the four-game series in our Rays/Jays series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 4/8/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson DH
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Miller 2B
Souza RF
Morrison 1B
Norris C
Smith LF
Beckham SS
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— 538 blog has the Red Sox with a 57% chance of making the playoffs one week into the season. *Cough…remembers when 538 had Hillary at a 60% chance of winning the election on November 8th.*

Rays release Cory Rasmus from contract

(Photo Credit: MLB.com)
Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), RHP Cory Rasmus has been released from the minor league contract he inked with the Tampa Bay Rays in February. Rasmus was hobbled by a groin injury this spring after signing the deal.

Rasmus followed his brother, Colby, to the Rays with the hope that the pair might appear on the same big league roster for the first time. Yet the groin gods struck after Cory appeared in his only spring game.

After a brief MLB debut (and stint) with the Atlanta Braves in 2013, Rasmus spent the majority of the past four seasons with the Angels organization, where he found success in both 2013 and 2014. However, he struggled the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 5.56 ERA in 45-1/3 innings. Between 2013 and 2016, Rasmus amassed a 4.17 ERA/4.49 FIP in 84 games (eight starts) across 123 innings.

LBWMF: Blake Snell, Rays fall to the Blue Jays, 5-2; Rasmus rehab update

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell goes into his windup against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning. (AP/The Associated Press)

Blake Snell walked a pair of runners in front of a Kendrys Morales’ third inning grand slam, as the Tampa Bay Rays fell to the Blue Jays, 5-2.

With two outs and one on, the southpaw walked Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista on five pitches each. Morales, who stepped into the box next, fell behind 0-1 in the count before crushing a 95-mph four-seam fastball (on the inner third of the plate) 444 feet into the left-field stands.

Per Statcast, the grand slam ball had an exit velocity of 108.8 mph with a 26 degree launch angle. Morales became the ninth player in team history to hit a grand slam for his first home run in a Jays uniform.

Snell was able to settle down and throw 3-1/3 scoreless innings, however, the damage was done. He gave up one last run in the seventh after Russell Martin walked, and moved to third on Justin Smoak’s single to right-center. Two batters later, Darwin Barney laid down a safety squeeze bunt single toward first, extending the lead.

Snell gave up five runs and four hits in 6-2/3 innings. The lefty struck out five and walked five. He told Alex Cordry (Fox Sports Sun) that he has to do a better job of commanding every individual pitch:

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was unable to figure out Marcus Stroman, this in spite of a 3-4 record, and 4.84 ERA. The diminutive right-hander struck out five of his first seven batters. Stroman also kept the ball on the ground, coxing three double plays over his 6-1/3 innings of work.

The Rays were finally able to break through in the seventh inning, after Evan Longoria, Brad Miller and Logan Morrison singled to plate a run and chase Stroman. Yet, Joe Biagini kept Tampa Bay from scoring any further by getting Tim Beckham to ground into the Rays’ fourth double play on the night.

The Rays rallied against Joe Smith in the ninth when Brad Miller walked with one out, and moved to third on a double to left-field by Steven Souza Jr. — his third hit of the night. And even though closer Jason Grilli entered the game and uncorked a wild pitch, scoring the second Rays run, both Logan Morrison and pitch-hitter Rickie Weeks Jr. struck out swinging to end the threat and the game.

If there is a bright side, Tommy Hunter and Danny Farquhar followed 2-1/3 scoreless innings. The bullpen has now given up just one run in 10-2/3 innings over the last four games.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese will make his first start of the season Friday night, opposite of left-hander Francisco Liriano.

Andriese begins the season as the number five starter, after shuffling between the starting rotation and the bullpen last season. Andriese, who didn’t have the strongest of springs, went 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2016, and is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against Toronto.

Liriano is coming off a dominant spring that saw a lot of whiffs and fewer walks than previous years. Yet the southpaw must continue to work on command if he is to be successful as he enters the final season of his contract. Liriano had an ERA of 2.92/3.98 FIP in 8 starts (10 total games) with Toronto last season. He has been the model of inconsistency, and that inconsistency could bode well for the Rays on Friday. Key matchups: Peter Bourjos (9-31, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (6-19, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI).

You can read more about the series in our Rays/Jays series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 4/7/17 Starting Lineup

Souza Jr. RF
Kiermaier CF
Longoria 3B
Weeks Jr. 1B
Norris C
Miller 2B
Beckham SS
Robertson DH
Bourjos LF
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

— Outfielder Colby Rasmus made his first rehab start in Port Charlotte on Thursday.

Rasmus went 0-3 with an RBI and three productive outs. He also collided with center fielder Ryan Boldt in the top of the first inning, but both appear to be okay.

He told Bryan Levine (Charlotte Sun) he felt good in spite the collision.