I want you to think back to a little more than a year ago, back to June 11-23. In that 11-game/12-day stretch, the 28-36 Toronto Blue Jays became the hottest team in baseball, winning 11 consecutive games to get above .500 for the first — and only — time of the 2013 season. But then they faced the Rays for a season altering three-game set, in which Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore paired up to hold the Blue Jays to just two runs in the front two games. Tampa Bay snapped the Jays’ hot streak a mere week prior to the start of a record setting, 21-6 month of July. The Rays were able to use that series — and the subsequent month of July — as a catalyst to propel them toward their fourth postseason berth.
And here we are, in the here and now.
When you look at the big picture the Rays are in a good place… That is, relative to their position; 10 games under .500 and nine and a half games out of first place in the AL East. The Yankees start the day (July 11) just one game over .500, and in dire straits after their All-Star ace Mashiro Tanaka was placed on the day DL with a torn UCL.
Enter the Blue Jays.
The same injury bug that hampered the Rays earlier in the season, has taken an extensive bite out of the Blue Jays. On the DL (officially, or otherwise) sit Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, Macier Izturis, Brett Lawrie, and Brandon Morrow. Because of it, Toronto has scuffled of late, going 3-7 in their last 10 games, and 5-10 over their last 15.
To put things in perspective, if Tampa Bay can sweep Toronto, (I know, it’s a tall task, but bear with me) they will finish the home stand with a 4-2 record — the same as taking two of three from both the Royals and Blue Jays. (as it relates to the W/L record, and WP) Tampa Bay is in a prime position to make up three games in the AL East this weekend. Too, there’s an opportunity to exact some revenge on the Blue Jays, following the Rays 2-5 start to the season against Toronto. Call it cautious optimism.
Mark Buehrle: After a long stretch of wins, with only one loss to speak of, the bubble burst on Buehrle at the beginning of June. Since, the Blue Jays have gone 2-5 when the soft tossing lefty has taken the mound. If anything, it’s an implication of their offense who’s been strapped for runs, and the Jays’ bullpen since Burhrle has given up three or more runs, just three times since June 1. Unlike April 2 when Buehrle held the Rays to four hits in 8-2/3 innings of work, Tampa Bay was able to tag him for four runs (three earned) in a May 27, 9-6 loss. The Rays pitching staff has improved since that loss, and the odds are much better for Toronto’s scuffling offense to be held in check Friday night. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (6-19, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (3-5, 2B, BB), Ryan Hanigan (2-8, BB), Desmond Jennings (7-18, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), James Loney (6-21, 3 2B), Evan Longoria (10-31, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Jose Molina (12-39, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Sean Rodriguez (7-24, 3 2B, 4 RBI), Ben Zobrist (6-18, 2B, 2 RBI, BB).
Drew Hutchison: Tampa Bay hit the 23 year-old mid-90′s fastball/changeup/mid-80′s slider throwing LHP hard, to the tune of five runs on seven hits — including three home runs — back in May. It’s either feast or famine against Hutchison; he either holds opposing hitters to two runs or fewer (nine times), or give up runs in clusters (three or more runs, nine times). Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (1-4), Cole Figueroa (1-3), Desmond Jennings (4-3, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (2-5, 2B, 3 BB), James Loney (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB).
JA Happ: The Rays have yet to face Happ this season. The 31 year-old lefty has had an up and down 2014, after transitioning to the starting rotation to take over for Brandon Morrow. He was excellent in May, posting a 4-1 record with a 3.20 ERA and 8.2 K/9. But he fell off. When Happ is on, he’s very good. However, the opposite is also true. And that he’s only averaging 4-3/4 innings per start should not be overlooked. Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (3-6, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI), James Loney (6-12, 2 2B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (4-10, 2 2B, RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-8, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Ben Zobrist (5-9, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 3 BB).
Noteworthiness
- Shortstop Yunel Escobar has been activated off the disabled list ahead of the series opener, Friday. In kind, Jake McGee, who welcomed his daughter into the works Thursday, will start a two-day paternity leave Friday, which would allow the team to activate Escobar from the DL without sending anyone down until Sunday. But the question begs, might this roster move be a mixed blessing for the Rays?
- Per Marc Topkin, “Injuries have torn asunder their lineup with Adam Lind joining Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Lawrie on the DL. Ex-Ray Dan Johnson is a possible replacement call-up. The injuries may change their trade deadline focus from adding starting pitching to seeking more offense, though they still have Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista. The pitching overall has been good. The more immediate concern is a 1-6 West Coast road trip and a 10-21 record since June 7 that saw them go from six games ahead in the AL East to 21/2 behind.”
- The Blue Jays lead the season series 5-2, while the Rays lead 149-134 overall, and 85-56 at Tropicana Field.