“The Angels’ desire for young, controllable pitching is no secret, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that they’ve indicated to other teams a willingness to trade center fielder Peter Bourjos or first baseman Mark Trumbo to acquire such talent (Twitter link),” wrote MLB Trade Rumors‘ Steve Adams Tuesday afternoon. And as the Hot-Stove portion of the season plods along for 93% of Major League Baseball, a hypothetical question arises: Should the Rays trade their ace, David Price, to the Angels for Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo? If anything, it’s a question that deserves further examination.
First, a few peripherals. It’s common knowledge that David Price is projected to make somewhere in the ballpark of $13.1MM in 2014. To that end, Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar will likely to have their options picked up, bringing the Rays’ payroll to a guaranteed $23.5MM for those two, Matt Moore, Joel Peralta and Evan Longoria. On top of that, Tampa Bay will have to pay roughly $25.7MM to eight arbitration-eligible players (and maybe more if Niemann and/or Sam Fuld are tendered contracts), bringing the total to $49.2MM for 13 players. That’s a lot of money for a team that has hinted at reducing the payroll because of attendance. That projected total also doesn’t include the money needed to sign (or in the case of James Loney, re-sign) a first-baseman and a ctacher. The most reasonable (and/or cutthroat) solution seems to be to deal David Price, and hope you get a sweetheart of a deal in return. I’d argue a sweetheart deal might be staring Friedman and Co. in the face.
I’d imagine a deal with the Angels may come down to a few mitigating factors: Whether the Rays can (and will) re-sign Loney, whether they’ll pickup David DeJesus’ $6.5MM option, and whether they place a higher priority on signing a catcher. Furthermore, would they be willing to pick up Trumbo’s contract, which is projected to jump significantly?
Loney was acquired for $2MM last season and excelled with the Rays — so much so, his market value could reach what he fetched in 2012, some $6MM. That’s well out of the Rays wheelhouse, leaving many to assume that Friendman’s best option would be to pick up someone like Mark Reynolds. However, a move to acquire Trumbo could offer the Rays a slugging first-baseman that’s locked up until 2017. Trumbo has appeared in (at least) 144 games in each of the past three seasons, posting a respectable .251 BA/.300 OBP/.473 SLG/.773 OPS slash line, while averaging 31 homers and 94 RBI per season. If his career norms speak to anything, it’s that his OBP is unlikely to be one of his strong points. But, he’s able to compensate for that with his power, while his 8.5 UZR (some 2.4 higher than Loney) speaks to his ability as a solid defender at first base. When comparing Trumbo’s RAR and WAR (22.8/2.5) with those of James Loney (25.0/2.7), it’s easy to see that he’d be a desirable replacement for Loney — assuming he doesn’t re-sign with the Rays. The caveat: His salary is projected to jump to a manageable $4.77MM (in arbitration) in 2014, and will subsequently increase until he hits free-agency in 2017.
The Rays are interested in bringing back OF David DeJesus. Per Roger Mooney of the Trib, the Rays could put in place a strategy similar to that of Luke Scott when they re-signed him prior to the 2013 season, noting, “They could pay him a $1.5 million buyout and try to resign him for less than $6.5 million.” There is also the possibility they could pick up DeJesus’ option outright, then put together some sort of trade package which would include Matt Joyce. Whatever the case, with a projected salary of $1.1MM, picking up Peter Bourjos could offer Tampa Bay some outfield depth (assuming they won’t be re-signing Kelly Johnson), while bolstering their speed on the base paths — that is, if he stays healthy. Bourjos has posted a decent .262 BA/.321 OBP/.401 SLG/.721 OPS (104 OPS+) over the last three seasons. Adams goes on to note, “Since his promotion to the Majors, he’s tied with Michael Bourn for second among center fielders in defensive value added, according to Fangraphs, trailing only Carlos Gomez for the league lead.”
With all of this in mind, Andrew Friendman may be presented with an intriguing proposition, one that could bolster the Rays production and speed, with no net loss in defense. The only pitfall in my mind, is how much Trumbo’s salary could increase from 2015 to 2017 — is this a risk the Rays are willing to incur?