Hot-Stove: Let the Winter Meetings Commence (Updated)

Update: Per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, if David Price was traded to Seattle, he wouldn’t sign a long-term contract with the Mariners. Adams writes,

Yesterday it was reported that the Mariners have a real opportunity to acquire David Price. Seattle would prefer to keep Taijuan Walker but could be willing to move Mike Zunino, according to those reports. Here’s the latest on Price’s trade market…

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke with Price’s agent, Bo McKinnis, this morning at the Winter Meetings and was told that Price would not sign a long-term deal if he were traded to the Mariners. McKinnis told Rosenthal that Price would consider signing an extension with other clubs, but wouldn’t disclose which clubs in which Price would have interest. Rosenthal stresses that this doesn’t preclude the Mariners from acquiring Price anyway (All Twitter links).

Let the madness begin! For the better part of the next week, representatives from all 30 Major League Baseball organizations, and more than 160 minor league baseball teams, have descended upon Lake Buena Vista, Florida to make moves in what has been called the culmination of the Hot-Stove period of the off-season. As one writer put it, “A lot of things are going to be talked about this week—some of them will bear fruit and change the landscape of MLB in 2014, others will be a lot of hot air from agents trying to drive up prices or teams trying to pressure a player into taking their deal.”

The Rays enter the Winter Meetings with three key power positions still up in the air; left-field, first base, and DH. And though they recently picked up a couple of relievers, in their attempt to rebuild a somewhat depleted bullpen, I would imagine Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon would be more than happy to add a few more arms to the pen. Then there’s the question of David Price — will the Rays trade the Cy Young Award winning LHP, or will they hold on to Price going into the 2013 season? This should be an exciting week, ladies and gentlemen.

Easily the biggest need for Tampa Bay will be to fill the hole at first base left in James Loney’s wake. Sure, Loney hasn’t been locked up by another team yet. However, his projected asking price of $27MM ($9MM per year over three years) may be well out of Tampa Bays’ comfort zone. Unless the Rays could piece together a decent package for Mark Trumbo, sans David Price (Note: With the acquisition of Peter Borjous by the Cardinals, I doubt the Rays would be willing to trade Price to Anaheim for Trumbo and Garrett Richards, a surplus value of ~$17.5M), pickins are slim in the quality first baseman department. Listed below are a few of the first basemen left on the free agent market.

Player	Pos	Age	Status	2013 Team	New Team	Years	Rank	Dollars
Corey Hart	1B	31	FA	Brewers	—		48	—
James Loney	1B	29	FA	Rays	—		33	—
Lyle Overbay	1B	36	FA	Yankees	—		NR	—
Carlos Pena	1B	35	FA	Rpyals	—		NR	—
Brock Peterson	1B	30	FA	Cardinals	—		NR	—
Mark Reynolds	1B	30	FA	Yankees	—		NR	—
Brandon Snyder	1B	27	FA	Red Sox	—		NR	—
Chad Tracy	1B	33	FA	Nationals	—		NR	—

Of the players listed in the table, Mark Reynolds and Corey Hart are the most intriguing — though Corey Hart’s name is listed with a caveat: The odd’s are good that he’ll end up with the Brewers once again. Despite a power outage last season, Mark Reynolds is worth consideration. It could be assumed that he will rebound offensively next season, even if his 2014 projections don’t support that idea. Reynolds’ cost is low, and the dividends could pay off big time. There are a few other players worth mentioning on the free agent market, or available via the trade. Let’s take a look at them.

With potential trade interest in Sean Rodriguez by the Miami Marlins, Logan Morrison represents a potential solution to the Rays’ first base conundrum. Daniel Russell of DRaysBay writes, “The biggest roadblock for the Rays should be that Morrison, like Hart, is recovering from right knee surgery; however, Morrison is not expected to begin running or baseball activities until March, while Hart has already been cleared by doctors. A trade built around Sean Rodriguez seems to have legs at the moment. Morrison has batted doubles at a rate of 5.6% in his career, better than league average for first baseman by 0.7%. He is entering his first year of arbitration, with three years of control remaining.”

Recovering from left wrist surgery, Mike Morse has been connected with four teams, none of which being the Rays. Even when hampered by a lingering wrist injury over the last three seasons, Morse still averaged 21 homers and a meaty .861 OPS. If his wrist is truly improved, Morse could be another undervalued player with a huge upside. “Looking over his performance at first base for 83 games in 2011,” notes Daniel Russell, “Morse had 23 scoops and started six double plays, which isn’t far off from James Loney’s pace last season. Arbitrary measures, but worth mentioning.

Projected to put together a .323 wOBA/103 wRC+/22 home runs 2014 season, Justin Smoak is a top prospect who never panned out. Smoak is a player under consideration in a prospective trade between Seattle and Tampa Bay for David Price. With the possible presence of both Kendrys Morales and/or Jesus Montero, there is the off chance that Tampa Bay will have an opportunity to acquire him in a lesser deal.

I’ll continue to update the progress over the next few days, keep checking back.

Noteworthiness

• “Even though the consensus seems to be that David Price would be pitching somewhere else by the time the 2014 season started,” writes Adam Wells of Bleacher Report, “the Rays don’t appear to be listening to that chatter.” Still, a couple of teams have been connected with the Rays lefty, one of which being the Los Angeles Dodgers. Rumors are swirling of a trade package that could include Matt Kemp, or prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias. With somewhere in the ballpark of $100MM still owed to Kemp, The Dodgers would have to eat a large portion of Kemp’s contract to make this trade feasible.
• Luke Adams of MLB Trade Rumors reports, “Jamey Wright’s free agent choice will come down to his most recent two teams, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who tweets that the right-hander is choosing between the Rays and the Dodgers.” Wright ultimately represents a low-cost, low-risk, bullpen arm considering he has signed for a base salary worth less than $1MM for each of the last several years.
• Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes, “So Price is both pretty expensive and massively underpaid at the same time. Any team acquiring Price is going to be giving up a good chunk of their financial resources, but they’re also going to be getting a guy who is earning half of what he should be making, relative to market prices for elite players. And that — along with either the chance to try and sign him to a long term deal before he reaches free agency — is why Price has a ton of trade value at the moment. He absolutely should command a huge return for the Rays. But just as Price is a hugely valuable commodity, so are Major League ready young players with 6+ years of team control. Even if they’re unproven, untested prospects, the forecast value of a prospect who could be reasonably expected to contribute at the big league level in 2014 is even higher than Price’s value.”
• “One GM theorized to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter links) that the Dodgers are in a favorable position to land Rays ace David Price. He believes that the Mariners won’t give up Taijuan Walker and the D’Backs will say no to including Archie Bradley in a deal. L.A. can’t offer a prospect as good as those two, but they can offer some combination of Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and pitching. Based on yesterday’s comments, Rangers GM Jon Daniels doesn’t sound as though he’s going to make a big play for Price.” — Zach Links, MLB Trade Rumors
• Finally, Regardless of where a new stadium/facility is located, mass transit (facilitated by light-rail) will be key in moving fans from either side of the bay. As many have asserted, the location of a stadium will become irrelevant, if Bay Area citizens vote to move forward with light-rail. Pinellas County citizens will be the next to vote in November 2014. If you live in the area and love the Rays, it’s my opinion that you should do some research on all the benefits of an improved mass transportation system, and start talking it up!