After dropping two of three north of the border, but salvaging the series finale on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays continue their road trip in Cincinnati, where they start a three-game set against the Reds on Monday. The Reds are coming off a series split with the Phillies.
It was an ugly series for the Rays, exacerbated by poor ball/strike calling by the umpire crew. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay bounced back in epic fashion, defeating Toronto 8-1 with the bottom third of the lineup driving in seven runs. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan allowed just one run (in a shaky first inning) across 6.0 frames, while the bullpen tossed zeroes to preserve the win.
Cincinnati entered Sunday’s contest with a chance to win a four-game series at home, yet that was undone by the time the second inning rolled around. Luis Cessa allowed nine runs to start the game, and 11 total runs in his 3.0 innings pitched, resulting in a 14-3 loss.
The Reds have been pretty good at home this season, boasting a 5-4 record, and I would imagine “flush it” to be the mantra going into Monday’s contest.
Despite the ugly losses Friday and Saturday, the Rays have the best record in baseball, and there really is not much that they haven’t done well thus far. Offensively, they have more runs scored and home runs than any other team in MLB, while the pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs and home runs.
Sunday’s contest brought Cincinnati’s team ERA to 5.21 this season. Only two teams have allowed more hits than the Reds who are also bottom-10 in walks issued. They’re one of the top teams in strikeouts per nine though, which helps them get out of jams. The bullpen was also third in WAR before Sunday’s game. Offensively, Cincinnati is batting a respectable .253 thus far. The team doesn’t hit many homers, which is surprising given that their home park is a hitter’s stadium, although they are still putting up 4.9 runs per game. Their biggest asset has been drawing walks this season.
After going 0-3 in Cincinnati a season ago, while being outscored 17-10, you’d better believe the Rays will be out for blood the next three days.
Pitching Probables
Truth be told, aside from Jalen Beeks (0-0, 3.00 ERA, 4.37 FIP) opening Monday’s contest, Kevin Cash hasn’t said who else will go and when. That’s due, in part, to the Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin injuries which could necessitate some roster shuffling. I will update this piece when things become clear. Nevertheless, Cash could turn to the bullpen (3-1, 2.59 ERA, 4.28 FIP) on Monday, Taj Bradley (1-0, 5.40 ERA, 0.72 FIP) in the second game of the set, and Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 2.62 FIP) to close things out. David Bell will counter with Hunter Greene (0-0, 5.14 ERA, 2.51 FIP), Nick Lodolo (2-0, 2.12 ERA, 2.01 FIP), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale).
Jalen Beeks served as the opener last Monday against the Red Sox and will do so again in the series opener versus the Reds. The left-hander has allowed two earned runs on five hits with a 5.00 K/BB across six frames in four outings this season. Overall, Beeks owns a 3.00 ERA and a 4.37 FIP, with a 1.00 WHIP.
Hunter Greene allowed three runs on seven hits and no walks over six innings against Atlanta on Wednesday. He struck out a season-high 10 batters. Greene went toe-to-toe with Spencer Strider, racking up 21 swinging strikes to Strider’s nine strikeouts and 22 whiffs. Greene was able to go six frames to pick up his first quality start of the season — the 23-year-old’s best start of the campaign thus far. Greene also didn’t issue any free passes — he walked three batters in each of his first two turns. Greene’s 5.14 ERA is belied by a solid 2.51 FIP, while he has performed to a 1.64 WHIP and a 3.83 K/BB across 14 innings. He worked over the Rays in one run, three-hit, four walks outing last season, striking out nine across six innings. Greene relies primarily on a blazing-fast 100 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and a hard 89 mph slider, while also mixing in a 92 mph worm-killer changeup. Key Matchups: Francisco Mejía (1-2, RBI), Harold Ramírez (1-3, 2B)
Taj Bradley‘s big-league debut Wednesday was impressive, especially when you consider that he retired 10 of the first 12 batters he faced. He may have been a little gassed by the time he was pulled — stretching to 78 pitches (52 strikes, 67% strike rate, 12% SwStr%) after throwing no more than 55 in either of his two minor-league starts. Last year, he maintained a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A. Don’t let his current 5.40 ERA deceive you though; that figure is belied by a 0.72 FIP and a .455 BABIP, which speak to bad luck being at the center of the three runs Bradley allowed across six strong innings.
Nick Lodolo allowed two runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings against the Phillies. He struck out six. Lodolo has now allowed just four earned runs in 17 innings this season, good for a 2.12 ERA and a 2.21 FIP. While that figure will likely increase as the season goes on, especially given his 1.41 WHIP, he has lived up to his billing after a solid rookie campaign. In one career start against Tampa Bay, Lodolo is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. Lodolo relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph fourseam fastball that has heavy sinking action and an 80 mph slider that has exceptional depth and sweeps across the zone, while also mixing in a 94 mph sinker that has an obvious tail and a swing-and-miss 88 mph changeup. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-3, 2B, HR, RBI), Yandy Díaz (3-3, 2B, RBI), Josh Lowe (1-3), Isaac Paredes (1-3), Harold Ramírez (1-2, BB), Taylor Walls (1-3)
Drew Rasmussen surrendered five earned runs on eight hits and four walks while striking out four in 4.1 innings Friday in Toronto. After dominating a couple of rebuilding clubs (Oakland and Washington) in his first two turns, Rasmussen faced a much tougher challenge against a strong Blue Jays lineup in a hitter-friendly park and it showed in the box score. Overall, the right-hander owns a 2.60 ERA and a 2.62 FIP, with a 0.87 WHIP, and a 4.75 K/BB. Rasmussen is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA in two outings (one start) against the Reds.
TBA
Noteworthiness
— The Rays made a flurry of roster moves on Monday. RHP Shawn Armstrong (Neck tightness) was transferred from the 15-day Injured List to the 60-day injured list, clearing 40-man roster space for RHP Cooper Criswell, who was recalled from Triple-A Durham. To clear space on the active roster, the Rays optioned RHP Trevor Kelley to Durham.
— Pet Tricia Whitaker (Bally Sports Sun), Zach Eflin threw a bullpen on Monday and felt great. As long as there’s not a setback, it’s fair to expect him back on Sunday.
The Music That Influenced This Preview
Call it dungeon punk if you must, but Poison Ruïn’s new, catchy-as-hell, lo-fi rager, Härvest, just dropped Friday, and boy is it great!