Looking at the Tampa Bay Rays so far this year, the pitching has not been very Rays-esque. The expected success from mainstays Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, with some pleasing performances from Michael Wacha, have kept the rotation respectable at a seventh-best mark, as it relates to WAR, in the league, yet with an organization like the Rays, dominance on the mound is expected. Besides the leaky bullpen problems, other problems lie in the back end of the rotation which has gotten somewhat messier with some of the prospect callups.
Someone the Rays expect much more from is the time-tested, bulldog pitcher, Rich Hill. After the bounceback success with the A’s and Dodgers late in his career, Hill is now looking like a one-year rental journeyman jumping from team to team that needs the rotation help. Only five starts into his introduction with Tampa Bay, fans have started to smash that panic button after three duds … that actually might not have been that bad. Rays fans, I believe that there is no need to worry about Rich Hill, even with his dreadful 7.05 ERA and 5.06 FIP marks.
Believe it or not, the 45-year-old Hill, whose fastball velocity sits at 89 mph, is a strikeout pitcher. In an age of high schoolers reaching 100 mph on their fastballs and skyrocketing strikeout rates for both hitters and pitchers, Hill has been known to get hitters to whiff badly without having any real gas. His incredible curveball is the main reason for so much success. The biggest part of teams wanting to bet on the once Independent Ball pitcher, who had barely any claim to his name, was the elite spin rate on his curveball. Without a doubt, that is what made the Rays so interested in him much like another recent signee, Collin McHugh, who has a signature slider with some of the most movement in the game. The Rays don’t expect Hill to be getting as many strikeouts in years past, seeing that his strikeout rate dropped by three points last season and it’s been the same thus far. But, they do expect someone who will mix strikeouts with weak contact. In fact, Hill boasts a .195 xBA/.244 SLG/.236 wOBA/20.5 Whiff% slash line on his 73 mph curveball, having allowed just two extra-base hits — both being doubles — which speak to his ability to stay out of instantaneous run-scoring situations.
Then why do his results look dreadful so far?
Well, the only hard contact Hill has allowed has been extremely unlucky. Right now, his 5.06 FIP — which is 1.10 points higher than his 3.96 career mark — is a clear indicator that he’s not getting the support he needs from his defense. But if you dig deeper you’ll find that his ballpark adjusted FIP (xFIP) sits at 4.11. In other words, the hard contact he allows has not been held within the confines of any given ballpark, giving hitters an advantage for greater home-run success (I think you might know of a certain short porch in right that helps a certain team out a lot). His BABIP against also is .022 points higher than his career numbers, speaking to his bout with the bad luck dragons.
A key takeaway is that Hill is pitching around a league-average mark when the luck factor has been taken out of the equation. He is a brilliant pitcher who’s solved how not to let age stop him from making hitters look silly. He’s pitched gems in World Series games and near no-hitters in his days with LA. And when you think about it, he’s not far removed from those days.
We caught a glimpse of what Hill is capable of on Monday when he hurled a gem against Oakland. The left-hander surrendered two runs on two hits and two walks across six innings. Hill struck out 10 on 93 pitches (59 strikes, 63% strike rate), and made only one real mistake which Sean Ryan Murphy drove into the first row of the left-field seats. Hill came through with his first quality start of the season, which allowed him to lower both his ERA and FIP. He now boasts a 3.43 K/BB across 22-1/3 innings this season.
We’ve caught glimpses of a dominant and crafty left-hander this season. Aside from the aforementioned outing above, think back to the Yankee series at the Trop when there was a point toward the start of the game where his curve and four-seamer combo destroyed some of New York’s best hitters. So, let’s give one of the newest members of the pitching staff more of a chance. There are indications that things are trending in the right direction, and I would be very excited for what the rest of the season could hold for the bulldog vet.