With just 24-hours left before Opening Day, it’s time to make some bold predictions for the 2016 season, division by division. J.J kicks things off with his predictions, and Anthony will round things out with his in the second part of the series.
The American League
Division winners: Blue Jays, Royals, Astros. Wild Card: Rays, Indians
AL MVP – George Springer (Astros); AL Cy Young – Carlos Carrasco (Indians); AL Rookie of the Year – Blake Snell (Rays)
AL East
First – Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto’s lineup is downright scary. Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion can all flirt with 40 home runs on a yearly basis, and If Tulowitzki can stay healthy, it will be enough to mask their lackluster pitching staff. Strohman is a great building block towards a solid rotation, but they’re not quite there yet. In any case their will be bombs flying at the Rogers Centre this year. Bring your gloves Jays fans.
Second – Tampa Bay Rays: You can go ahead and call me a homer for this pick, However the Rays exceeded most expectations last season going 80-82 last year under 1st year manager Kevin Cash despite going 2-13 in extra inning games and 26-30 in 1 run games in 2015. There still remains questions in the Rays pen, especially with the current injury to Brad Boxberger (8 weeks). The Rays plan on using the two headed monster approach with Alex Colome and Danny Farquar to fill the void of Boxberger. The Rays obvious strength is their starting pitching which as of now stands among the best in MLB, with more dynamic arms on the way. Rookie LHP Blake Snell continued to impress this spring, and veteran RHP Alex Cobb hopefully returning by August, could provide the Rays with a boost post All-Star break. The Rays should improve slightly offensively. Acquisitions of Dickerson, Pierce, Morrison and Conger gives Kevin Cash more flexibility for his lineup card. If Longoria and Souza can show increased power number, this could be a very electric year at the Trop.
Third – Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox seem to be all of the experts pick to win the east, but they’re are huge question marks all over their roster. The additions of Price and Kimbrell will no doubt solidify their pitching, but with Eduardo Rodriguez entering the season on the DL. We have to raise the question; will Porcello, Bucholtz, and the inexperienced Roenas Elias be enough? Along with Bostons under-performing ’15 signee’s Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval both offensively and defensively. There’s not much reason to believe a team that finished last 3 of the last 4 seasons can make that jump to first place, not this year anyway.
Fourth – New York Yankees: The Yankees are old and they know it. Essentially waiting for aging Arod, Texeira, and Beltran to play out their contracts. The Yankees added Aroldis Chapman this offseason making their bullpen quite formidable. Miller and Betances will hold it down until Chapman is done serving his 30 game suspension, but will there be any leads for these three studs to hold, given their shaky pitchng rotation. The Yanks will definitely score runs granted they stay healthy otherwise this could be a dissapointing season in the Bronx.
Fifth – Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore has the power to compete with the likes of Toronto or Boston, however they ranked 12th in the AL in OBP, and the recent additions of Trumbo, Alvarez, and re-signed slugger Chris Davis will actually make them worse in that catergory. So expect a lot of solo homers and strikeouts this year. Chris Tillman is projected to be the Orioles opening day starter, who posted an atrocious 4.99 ERA in 2015, and their starters as a whole posted a pedestrian 4.53 ERA and allowing an opponents batting averaage of .267 and giving up 128 homers (14) over the AL average. Regardless of Baltimore’s poor OBP they can still mash, with all of the sluggers on their rosters they will still a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
AL Central
First- Kansas City Royals: It’s hard to bet against the 2 time defending AL Champions. The Royals have defied many analytic experts over the past 2 seasons and have even more reason to prove their doubters wrong. Kansas City has been predicted to finish last in the AL central according to PECOTA, and Fangraphs predicting only 77 wins this season. The Royals will be playing with a major chip on their shoulders this year. Some may question their starting rotation, but it’s K.C.’s scrappy and versatile lineup that attributes to their success. With Wade Davis, arguably baseball’s best closer, the Royals are still the team to beat in the AL Central.
Second – Cleveland Indians: The Indians were PECOTA’s pick to have the most wins in the AL. With Corey Kluber and my pick to win the Cy Young award Carlos Carrasco anchoring their starting rotation, the Indians have a lot to be excited about. The Tribe is strong up the middle as well with the dynamic tandem of Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis. The question surrounding the Indians is whether or not they’ll be able to score enough runs and compete in a very tough AL Central.
Third-Detroit Tigers: The Tigers may very well win the division. The signing of Justin Upton makes their lineup formidable, however with Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera aging, and lack of established lefties to balance their lineup, the Tigers could also be the most disappointing team in the AL. On Paper their starting pitching seems solid. With budding star Daniel Norris making his debut this season and rotation “Bulldog” Jordan Zimmerman, I expect the Tigers to stay relevant throughout the season into September.
Fourth – Chicago White Sox: After the Drake LaRoche debacle in spring training, the White Sox find themselves a club house divided. We may never know who complained to Ken Williams pertaining to LaRoche’s unconventional parenting method, but the fact of the matter is, this will undoubtedly affect the Sox for the rest of the year. The White Sox do have the best trio of young left handed starters in; Sale, Quintana, and Rodon. The addition of Todd Frazier should provide protection for Abreu. Is it possible the LaRoche incident cold galvanize the Sox in possible achieving a wild card birth? I’m going to have to say no to that scenario.
Fifth-Minnesota Twins: The Twinkies were last years cinderella story exceeding everyone’s expectations by going 83-79 last year and sniffing the wild card late in the season. This likely won’t be the case this year, but there’s a lot to be excited about for years to come in Minneapolis. The Twins got it right by hiring manager Paul Molitor, and have a plethora of young talent including Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Korean Import Byung Ho-Park. I just don’t see the Twins having enough starting pitching to stay competitive for the whole season.
AL West
First – Houston Astros: Get used to this everyone. The Astros are the real deal, and will continue to be front runners in the AL West for years to come. With returning AL Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel, along with Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers. The Astros may have arguably the best staff in baseball, and with a lineup that features Altuve, Gomez, Correa, and my personal pick for M.V.P. George Springer. The Astros will be a menace in the AL this year, even without “El Oso Blanco” (Evan Gattis) due to return in mid-April. The Astros are my clear cut favorites to represent the AL in the World Series.
Second – Seattle Mariners: On paper the Mariners look like they have what it takes to compete with the “Big Boys” of the AL West. A pitching rotation of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, Wade Miley and Nathan Karns is about as good as it gets for this young team. The additions of Nori Aoki and Leonys Martin should provide more base runners for Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager to drive in. It’s do or die for the Mariners this year, they should hold up for most of the year, granted everyone stays healthy and rookie Ketel Marte lives up to his potential. The Mariners in my opinion are the proverbial “Dark Horse” in the AL this year.
Third – Texas Rangers: The Rangers were the most improved team last year, and I expect them to continue that momentum into this year. Rougned Odor will continue to improve and ageless wonder Adrian Beltre will continue to dominate his position both offensively and defensively. Cole Hammels solidifies their starting rotation and should keep Texas in it until Yu Darvish returns. If the aforementioned Mariners don’t play to their potential, look for Texas to challenge Houston for the West. Although Houston’s starting pitching will eventually overcome any division foe.
Fourth – Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have the best player in baseball in Mike Trout. Aside from Trout there’s not a whole lot to be excited about. Many wonder how many 30 homerun seasons are left for Albert Pujols and the addition of Andrelton Simmons sures up their infield defensively, but that’s about it. The return of Garrett Richards will provide stability in their rotation but there’s a huge question as to where run production will come from this year. If the Angels struggle look for the Athletics to leap frog them sometime in mid-season.
Fifth – Oakland Athletics: Billy Beane went “All In” in 2014 and it seems they haven’t been able to recover since their defeat to the Royals in the Wild Card game. Billy Burns and Stephen Vogt were pleasant surprises last year but there’s not a whole lot of star power on the A’s which is exactly the way Beane wants it. Sonny Gray is a dynamic pitcher but will he be around at the end of the year with Beane’s constant tinkering of their 25 man roster. The Athletics will be competitive again, just not this year.
AL Recap: Wild Card; Rays over Rangers. Divisional Round; Blue Jays over Royals, Astros over Rays. ALCS; Astros over Blue Jays
American League Champions: Houston Astros.
The National League
Division winners: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers. Wild Card; Giants, Cardinals
NL MVP – Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks). Cy Young – Jacob DeGromm (Mets) NY Rookie of the Year – Miakel Franco (Phillies)
NL East
First – New York Mets: The Met’s will win the East with their starting pitching alone. DeGromm (my pick for Cy Young) Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Matz are unrivaled as the NL’s best pitching staff. The resigning of Cespedes along with youngster Michael Conforto make the Mets the team to beat in the N.L. east. Along with breakout performances from Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud it will be hard for any team (including the Nationals) to dethrone the N.L. East Champs.
Second – Washington Nationals: The Nationals are perennial favorites, but if pitching does indeed win pennants, Washington may not have enough to overtake the reigning A.L. East champs. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are dominant, but there are huge questions at the back of their rotation. Lucas Giolito may provide some stability in that area once he’s ready. Bryce Harper will make a run at another M.V.P. and look for Michael Taylor to take a step closer towards becoming one of baseball’s elite young players. Washington will make it close but expect another late season nose dive from the Nats to allow the Mets to win the East.
Third – Miami Marlins: The Marlins are better than most people realize. Dee Gordon is a dynamic player and will prove last years .333 average and 205 hits was no fluke. The Marlins are also hoping Justin Bour can repeat his breakout performance in 2015 and provide Giancarlo Stanton with some much needed protection. The signing of LHP Wei Yin Chen will prove to be a steal by seasons end. Expect the Marlins to be somewhere around .500 for the season.
Fourth – Atlanta Braves: You can flip a coin between the Braves and Phillies to be bottom dwellers in this division. Atlanta is rebuilding with the hopes they can put a competitive team in 2017 when they move into their new stadium in Cobb county. In the meantime poor Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran will have to suffer along with their fan base. Young Ender Enciarte and Hector Olivera will prove to be cornerstones for the Braves brighter future.
Fifth – Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are in full rebuild mode along with a few other teams in the NL. It’s tough to say whether they’ll be the worst of the lot, but they’ll give Atlanta, Cincinatti and Milwaukee a run for their money. One bright spot will be third baseman Maikel Franco, who I’m betting on to win Rookie of the Year and the heir apparent to Adrian Beltre as M.L.B.’s top third baseman.
NL Central
First – Chicago Cubs: I’m drinking the Cubs Kool-Aid this year. I may be setting myself up for a big disappointment, but looking at their roster top to bottom, there’s no reason to believe they won’t at least win the Central. Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber are literally freaks of nature, and the trio could hit 100 homers combined. Jake Arrieta came on strong in the second half of the season and earned N.L. Cy Young honors. He probably won’t repeat as Cy Young but he has certainly proven himself as an ace. Lester and Lackey aren’t the pichers they used to be but are still solid 2 and 3 starters. They don’t need to be perfect, they just need to keep the Cubs in the game. The offense should take care of the rest.
Second – St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals keep pumping out players from their deep farm system and Cards fans should be excited to see what kind of numbers Randal Grichuck and Stephen Piscotty put up in a full season. With arguably baseball’s best leadoff hitter in Matt Carpenter, The Cards should find a way to score more runs which they struggled at times with last year. Perhaps Their biggest question is what they can expect from Adam Wainwright after recovering from a torn Achilles tendon suffered while running the bases last year. Lance Lynn’s absence (Tommy John surgery) will be greatly missed as well the Cardinals are hoping Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha can pick up the slack.
Third – Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates have arguably one of the best outfields in baseball and ther’s no reason not to think they won’t be in the mix again in ’16. However after three consecutive wild-card losses one can only speculate what that has done for team morale. Despite those heart-wrenching defeats, the Pirates may have one of the most balanced lineups in the NL. Gerrit Cole is a solid ace but do they have enough depth to compete with Chicago and St. Louis in that department. Jung Ho Kang starting the year on the DL doesn’t help matters either. Time will tell whether or not the Pirates can take the next step and finally win the NL Central.
Fourth – Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew don’t stand much of a chance in winning the Central this year. Look for the Brewers to shop Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun as they look to rebuild for the future.
Fifth – Cincinnati Reds: The Reds won’t fare well this year either. They do have “assets” to trade in Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips as they too look to rebuild. Votto will have another solid year granted Bruce and Phillips stick around to protect him. This will be a long season in Cincinnati and Milwaukee.
NL West
First – L.A. Dodgers: The perennial chokester’s will once again boast M.L.B.’s best record this year. The loss of Greinke will hurt, but the Dodgers feel the addition of Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda should negate Greinke’s absence. There’s a lot to love about this team in terms of depth. Rookie of the Year favorite Corey Seager along with Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner make for a very talented and versatile infield, and it looks like Carl Crawford will get his chance to crack the starting lineup again due to Andre Ethier’s injury. The Dodgers will definetly make the playoffs, but will they run into their playoff nemesis’s again in either St. Louis or San Francisco? I would bet yes, and the result will be the same. Sorry Dodgers fans.
Second – San Francisco Giants: It’s an even year, and we all know what that means. Another playoff run for the Giants. Especially with the additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, the Giants will have the best Rotation in the West, granted they stay healthy. You gotta love Posey, Belt and Pence in the middle of that lineup. The Giants are scrappy and they know how to win. It’s a stone cold lock that one of the wild-card spots will belong to them.
Third – Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks turned a lot of heads with the Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller acquisitions, and although many experts have them potentially winning a wild-card spot, I believe they’re a year away. Arizona has arguably the best player in baseball in Paul Goldschmidt and he’ll prove it this year when he wins the M.V.P. They’re young and talented but they’re gonna have to wait another year before emerging on the playoff scene. That being said The D’backs will be playing meaningful games in September.
Fourth – San Diego Padres: 2015 much like Oakland in ’14. San Diego put all their chips on the table in ’15, and we soon learned that they were not ready to play with the “Big Boys” yet. However it doesn’t mean all is lost. Tyson Ross is a stud in the making. The Padres are also hoping that Corey Spangenberg will have an impact this year. Cashner and Norris with their veteran presenceshould keep them competitive for a bit, but San Diego is a few years away from being relevant in this division.
Fifth – Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are in an identity crisis. Unlike Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, The Rockies seem to be in denial of their current status. No doubt they’ll shop Cargo this season, but many feel they should have moved him earlier on during the off-season to start their rebuilding process. They have a great player in Nolan Arenado who will lose to Goldschmidt in the M.V.P. race due to playing for a poor club. No doubt Arenado is a great bulding block for the future, but this franchise won’t go anywhere with out better pitching. Look for Jake McGee to be dealt near the deadline. A exciting player to keep an eye on is Trevor Story, who will be replacing Jose Reyes at shortstop as he serves his suspension.
NL Recap: Wild Card; Giants over Cardinals, Divisional; Giants over Dodgers, Cubs over Mets. NLCS Cubs over Giants
NL Champions: Chicago Cubs
World Series: Cubs over Astros.
There you have it, my fearless predictions for the 2016 season. Stay tuned for Anthony’s take on what he thinks will happen this year.