X-Rays Spex

Alright folks, it’s a new year, and along with all of the excitement that a new year brings, so too does it bring the excitement of the promise of a new baseball season. As of today, we’re only a mere 50 days away from the unofficial start of Spring Training: when the pitchers and catchers report. Will Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann be a part of the starting rotation…a part of the Rays? Will the Tampa Bay re-sign Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon? We’ll know soon enough.

Unlike last year, we fans haven’t had to watch our team get disassembled and rebuilt, in a manner of speaking, from scratch. That is to say, with the exception of a few players that didn’t get re-signed or were traded away, we’re basically looking at the same team which is a good thing. And though there are still a few puzzle pieces that need to fall into place, with the flexibility to expand the payroll by approximately $15 MM this season, it looks as though that Rays past reliance on 4A players, like Dan Johnson and Felipe Lopez, will not be in the cards in 2012.

I’d be remiss if I failed to mention that we’re coming into one of the best times of the off-season; a time of year that we here at Raysbaseball.co like to call Friedmanary.

As has been well documented in a number of places, including here on this site, January is typically the month that Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman, is most active. Most of us hardcore Rays fans have sat on pins and needles the last few months waiting for any news or even a sign from above, of who will be Tampa Bays DH, first baseman, and second catcher. Well friends and dear readers, to you I say our wait shall be over soon!

A lot of audible rumblings have been heard lately concerning who’ll be the Rays first baseman in both the short and long-terms. The hottest, loudest rumblings seem to be surrounding the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Angels (respective) ousted first basemen, Anthony Rizzo and Mark Trumbo, as well as former Rays first baseman, and current free agent, Carlos Pena. Ryan Theriot’s name has been thrown around here and there too, though more so as a backup infielder.

In order for the Rays to pick up the likes of an Anthony Rizzo or Mark Trumbo, they’re going to have to deal, or create a package deal including, Wade Davis and/or Jeff Niemann. Lest we forget too, that Reid Brignac’s name has also been mentioned as trade fodder. In my opinion, with the lack of trade equity in both Niemann and Brignac, they’d have to be bundled together. I think Davis could potentially do OK on his own. Roy Oswalt still being on the market is having an effect on things to an extent. The sooner he’s off of the market, the sooner others will be focusing a discerning eye on who the Rays have on the table.

I’d be more apt to think that Tampa Bay would sooner go after a Rizzo or Trumbo than they would Pena. Why? A couple of reasons. They fit the Rays MO. They’re younger, and they wouldn’t come with such a hefty price tag. If they can lock down a Rizzo or Trumbo for a number of years on the cheap, they will. We also don’t know how much Pena is asking for. Last year he made $10 MM, which I think is more than the Rays are willing to pay, even with an expanded payroll. Of the two, I’d have to say Trumbo would be a better fit. Trumbo hit .254 BA/.291 OBP/.477 SLG/.768 OPS with 29 home-runs in 539 at bats, in 2011. Those are very 2011, Carlos Pena like numbers, at (probably) a fraction of the cost.

It would be reasonable to think that the Rays would be interested in re-signing Johnny Damon if they were to get the likes of a first baseman, like Trumbo, with some pop in his bat. Then again, with the flexibility to expand the payroll and no, as of yet, contracts for either Damon or Casey Kotchman, it could be assumed that the Rays are looking for more production out of first base and DH. That then begs the question: would they be interested in signing Pena to a short term (in the least) contract as DH?

Even though Tampa Bay signed Jose Molina in this off-season, catching is another spot that needs to be looked at. Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, summed things up in his January 1st piece in the Times:

A key catch: As much as Rays officials say they are, they really can’t be comfortable going into the season with the catching pairing of veteran Jose Molina (who hasn’t started more than 51 games since the 2008 season) and either Robinson Chirinos or Jose Lobaton. The overall team is too good to leave it in their hands; expect another addition.

In any case, there’s a lot to be excited about. Even ESPNs Buster Olney, in a very un-ESPN like moment of clarity, ranked the Rays as number one in his 2012 power rankings. Soon enough, the off-season rumors and rumblings will come to an end, and our boys will again take the field in preparation for another exciting season. The Rays proved last season that, even when the rest of the AL had their numbers, their resilience and willingness to grind it out (especially when others couldn’t do the same…cough the Red Sox) found them in the post-season. Now it’s up to us fans to get excited for what’s to come. It’s imperative that we keep up that enthusiasm for our Rays over the course of 162 games. They had an axe to grind last season, and they have just as much to prove in 2012. It’s up to us to match that “gotta prove ourselves” affect as fans, and consistently get out there and show the Rays (our Rays) organization that we, indeed, love our small market team.

Now that the excitement surrounding the Winter Meetings has faded away, we Rays fans find ourselves in a very familiar, yet rather irritating, place. That place? The annoying one between the Winter Meetings, and when Andrew Friedman seems to come alive, prior to the reporting of pitchers and catchers.

We’ve seen it before, and we know that Friedman is most active in January.  The Rays are still in need of a DH and 1B, regardless if they choose to re-sign Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman, or if they choose to err on the side of non or former Ray players. It’s all but certain that “the process” will work itself out, and that we need to, as we’ve heard on multiple occasions, “trust the process”, regardless of how frustrating it may seem be to do so. We know that by the time Spring Training rolls around, our uncertainty about whether those open slots will be filled, will have melted away. Until then, sigh…

Today, MLBtraderumors posted a list of the 12 remaining free agent power hitters. It’s an interesting list (to say the least), filled with a who’s who of former Rays players. Carlos Pena and Johnny Damon have been under the magnifying glass of interest, as potential candidates to plug the DH and 1B holes. Some of the listed players are obviously out of the question for Tampa Bay. That is to say I highly doubt that we’ll see the likes of a Cody Ross or Prince Fielder and time soon. I’m also certain, and thankful, that we’re not going to see the return of Pat Burrell or Johnny Gomes.

1. Prince Fielder – .267 ISO
2. Andruw Jones – .247
3. Carlos Pena – .237
4. Jason Varitek – .203
5. Jonny Gomes – .180
6. Derrek Lee – .179
7. Pat Burrell – .175
8. Raul Ibanez – .174
9. Wilson Betemit – .169
10. Cody Ross – .165
11. Jorge Posada – .163
12. Johnny Damon – .156

None of the players listed represent any long-term DH or 1B solutions for the Rays, nor does the list offer any long-term (or short-term) solutions to the Rays catching conundrum. It does, in a sense, narrow the list of potential short-term DH candidates down to two: Pena and Damon, especially if Tampa Bay is serious in their talks with Kotchman. Keep in mind, too, that there are other 1B options out there. One option: San Diego Padres first base prospect Anthony Rizzo.

With the Padres recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the possibility of a Wade Davis/Anthony Rizzo trade is out there. Though Rizzo hit .141, with only one home run and 46 strikeouts in 128 at-bats in 2011, Rizzo has been ranked as the Padres top prospect by Baseball America for his patience and power potential. Rizzo also represents a younger player at first, something that the Rays are looking for. A Davis, or Jeff Niemann, trade also opens up a slot for Matt Moore in the starting rotation.

I know that I may be jumping the gun by a year, but I’m just not that excited for the prospect (post Molina) of either Robinson Chirinos or Jose Lobaton leading the way as the Rays primary catcher. The acquisition of Molina may buy the Rays a little time, however it’s incumbent that the Rays sort things out, the sooner the better.

Finally, on December 25, the St. Petersburg Times posted the surprising results of a Times/Bay News 9 poll, about the future of the Rays in the Tampa Bay area. Of the 508 Tampa Bay area citizens (cough, not just Pinellas County citizens) polled, about 55 percent said that they’d prefer Major League Baseball to remain at Tropicana Field or at a mid-Pinellas location in the Gateway area, about 30 percent said that they’d prefer a Hillsborough site. 49 percent of the Hillsborough County respondents would prefer a new stadium in their county, but 33 percent want to keep baseball in Pinellas, where Pinellas County citizens taxes would pay for the stadium. According to the Times, what really stands out is that, “About 27 percent favor the fairgrounds at Interstate 4 and U.S. Highway 301, compared with 17 percent who like downtown and 5 percent who prefer the West Shore area.”

Not that I subscribe to the idea that the free market should determine the destiny of any given thing, in this instance the fans have spoken and it’d be wise to follow that wisdom. Though it’s been drilled in our heads, from a myriad of sources, that the Rays only option to remain viable in this market is a move to Hillsborough County, the results of this poll show, if anything, that the fans would prefer the Rays to stay on the west side of the bay. To be fair, the poll has also shown that Hillsborough County residents are warming up to the idea of having the Rays on that side of the bay. I’d think it would be fair to assume that Mayor Foster’s handling of things may be driving that warming to some extent.

So the question begs: where do we go from here? I’d have to think Mayor Foster, the city council, and the Rays organization should use these results to help drive things in a manner of speaking. These results need to be used as a means to compel the mayor to do more than he has, and it’s now more imperative than ever for the St. Petersburg city council to light the match and hold the flame to the feet of those that seem to be doing nothing.