X-Rays Spex

The number one and two power ranked teams in baseball took the field in game one of a three game set, today in Detroit. The Tigers took game one on a snowy day at Comerica Field, 5-2.

Both Matt Moore and Rick Porcello pitched well enough to find both teams struggling to knock in runs up until the eighth inning, when the bottom fell out on the Rays bullpen.

Matt Moore went 6-2/3 innings and gave up two runs (both earned) on four hits and five walks, striking out four along the way. He didn’t pitch horribly, yet her certainly wasn’t the two hit, 12 K Matt Moore that we saw in game one of the 2011 ALDS. Nevertheless, it was a decent place to start and was undoubtedly better than James Shields first start of the 2012 season.

Moore had great velocity, especially considering the cold weather conditions. His fastball sat around 93 MPH and topped out at 95 MPH, yet he only had a 55% strike percentage on the day. Is this a reason to be worried? In a word, no. DRaysBay wrote a nice piece on Matt Moore getting off to a slow start in April. You can read that here. In short, I’ll gladly take this start by Matt Moore considering that things will only get better as the season progresses.

Moore was taken out two outs into the seventh inning after a questionable two strike call by home plate umpire Ed Rapuano, that preceded a blast to left-field by Austin Jackson that would tie the game up at two a piece. LHP Jake McGee came in relief of Moore, and got Boesch to line to left-field to end the inning. McGee came back in the eighth to face Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera ultimately doubled off of McGee, after yet another botched call by Rapuano. You can see that pitch number four in the Pitch F/X graph (below) was clearly a strike, yet was called a ball by Rapuano. If it was called a strike, Cabrera would have been dead to rites. Unfortunately though, that pitch preceded a double by Cabrera which would set up a three run eighth. The Rays would never recover. In my opinion, knowing that Fielder has a hard time with lefties and curve balls, Maddon should have brought in JP Howell in to face Fielder. Yet he didn’t, and Fielder hit a single off of Badenhop to drive in Cabrera and the winning run. The Tigers drove in two more runs in the eighth, and then blah blah blah, Valverde, save, yadayadayada…you know the drill.

The Rays had kind of a blah day at the plate. The good: the had eight hits, including hits by Desmond Jennings, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist. That is to say, the bats that should be hitting are. The bad: they were only able to drive in two runs, get one extra base hit, and they stranded six on the base paths.

In the end, tomorrow is another day. Yet, the task at hand will be no easier as 2011 AL MVP, Justin Verlander, takes the hill following his first start of the season against the Red Sox, where he gave up no runs on only two hits in eight innings of work. Look at the bright side: the Rays batters are seeing the ball well, and at least it’ll be warmer out.

Alright kids, it’s almost that time for the Rays 20 game April gauntlet. Over the next few weeks, the Rays will face the Tigers, Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Blue Jays and the Rangers (in no specific order), which will be no easy task. Today marks the beginning of that gauntlet, with a three game set in cold and blustery Detroit, against the Numero Uno power ranked Tigers.  If anything though, the Numero Dos ranked Rays may be able to do something that the Red Sox couldn’t: beat the Tigers. Why? Pitching, and what seems to be a fully capable set of batters. Matt Moore will lead the charge today against RHP Rick Porcello. Tampa Bay also stands to rectify  last season’s paltry 1-6 record against the Tigers. This series promises excitement, especially if the Rays continue to mash the ball as they did against the Yankees.

The Rays, and Ray fans alike, didn’t get the opportunity to see Prince Fielder last season when they took on the Brew-crew during intraleague play. That situation will be vastly different this season, as Tampa Bay will be seeing Fielder this season in spades. He, along with a few other players on the Tigers roster (like Miguel Cabrera), is a major offensive threat that’s capable of able of doing some major damage. Like Cabrera also, Fielder is predominantly a fastball hitter.

To his credit, Moore has an overpowering fastball. Like David Price, Moore will need to make sure that he keeps the velocity up in the 95 MPH+ range, and down in the zone. We all saw how effective Price was on Saturday, and it would be foolish to think that Moore would be any different, going into things with a similar approach. Young Matt, thankfully, has the ability to locate his pitches well. And, with such an overpowering fastball, it’s easy to gloss over the fact that Moore also has a very good curveball and change-up. Those pitches are huge assets when talking about pitching to Cabrera and Fielder. One needs only to take a look at both Fielder and Cabrera’s career splits to see that they’re more apt to do damage on misplaced fastballs than they are on curve balls and change-ups. Moore has another advantage, at least over Fielder: Moore is a left handed pitcher, and Fielder hits righties better than he does lefties. If Moore, like Price, frames up those secondary pitches with well placed fastballs low in the zone, he will be extremely effective pitcher on the bump today.

In other news, Jeff Keppinger will be filling in at DH today for Luke Scott who left Sunday’s game with leg tightness. Scott received a cortisone shot on Monday, and will probably sit on the bench for this series. We can, probably, expect him to be ready for action in the Red Sox series. Today’s starting lineup is below. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

Rays starting lineup 4/10/12:

Jennings CF

Pena 1B

Longoria 3B

Joyce LF

Zobrist RF

Keppinger DH

Rodriguez 2B

Molina C

Brignac SS

Moore P

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. I’d have to agree with that assessment. Below are three sets of graphs comparing games 1,2, and 3 of the 2011 season, to games 1,2, and 3 of the current season. I’m hesitant to assume that the Rays are all but locked in as the 2012 AL East champions, on their way to Tampa Bays first World Series title. That’s especially true after only three games. However, it’s pretty telling when you compare where they are now, to where they were then, with regard to runs scored. Tampa Bay had under five runs scored three games into the 2011 season, and now they already have 18 runs under their collective belts.

Tampa Bay will start a series in Detroit Tuesday, thusly entering the gauntlet that is the month of April. In that time, they’ll be facing five upper echelon teams over the course of 16 games, which will be no easy task. Hypothetically speaking though, if they go .500 in the month of April, they’ll waltz into May with a 13-10 record. That’s not too shabby. Any-who, check out the graphs (courtesy of Fangraphs) below. Oh, and happy birthday Helly. What a way to ring your 25th year!

I know, it’s a RedSux jpg, but the point is still relevant. The Rays have now won seven games in a row against the Yankees, and have swept them twice in a row. The Rays start the season 3-0. More to come.

Tampa Bay is looking to sweep the Yankees for the second time in a row going back to last seasons sweep that found them in the playoffs. Coming off of another big win, thanks to contributions by the bigger bats on the team, the Rays have already taken their first series win of the season, and look primed to charge into Detroit on a big wave of momentum.

There was a lot to be excited about last night: David Price had a great night, going 6-1/3 innings with a slash line of 5H/2R (both earned)/4 BB/5K. More impressive was his ability to command both sides of the plate, establishing his 94-97 MPH fastball early, while throwing the Yankees off with impressive spiked curveballs and change-ups. I’m more than content with he only striking out five. He was ultimately able to induce grounders and pop-ups which were gobbled by the Rays stellar defense. Though Reid Brignac did didly squat at the plate, he played the field extremely well and was able to show how versatile of a middle infielder he is.

On his end, Keppinger did a knock-up job at second, all the while showing why he’s better on the right side of the infield as opposed to the left. Kep ranged to the right on a few different occasions, and he was also able to save a less than stellar feed from Brignac on a force out, which could have been disastrous otherwise.

It was also extremely encouraging to see the Rays bats come alive for the second night in a row. It took the Rays 63 innings for the to score a total of 16 runs last season, a feat that they’ve been able to meet just 18 innings into 2012. Matt Joyce, Luke Scott, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, Jose Lobaton and Carlos Pena all came up big at the plate last night. They were able to effectively score runs throughout the game. They were also able to drive in runners in scoring position, only leaving six men on the base paths. I was very apprehensive with the off-season signing of Luke Scott. Yet, going 3-4 with three RBI’s has really started to quell my fears. A friend of mine said it best, “if he keeps his mouth shut, I will too.” Scott’s doing a good job of letting his bat speak for him.

Josh Lueke was the biggest concern last night. Coming on in relief of Burt Badenhop, Lueke went 1-1/3 innings, and gave up three runs (all earned) on three hits and two walks. Lueke entered the game with a six run lead, yet allowed that lead to be whittled down to only two by the time Peralta cleaned up his mess. In an ideal world, Lueke is still trying to find his rhythm and get acclimated. And to be fair, he did chose a good time to blow things, in a manner of speaking. I’d rather see him give up x-number of runs with a big lead, then when it is a much closer game. Only time will tell if Lueke settles down before the return of Kyle Farnsworth. Oh and Fernando Rodney? Rad! A win the night before, and a save last night.

The Rays look to start the season 3-0 for only the second time in franchise history. A few words of caution though: The last time the Rays went 3-0 to start the season was in 2002 when they went on to lose 103 games. Also, the last time the Yankees started the season 0-3 was in 1998; a year when they went on to win 114 games and go on to win the World Series.

2011 AL rookie of the year Jeremy Hellickson will take the mound against Phil Hughes. Luke Scott is 8-15 lifetime against Hughes, with a .533 BA. Conversely, Ben Zobrist 0-10 lifetime against Hughes, not to mention that Pena has been retired by him eight out of the last nine times he’s faced Hughes. The Yankees blog over at ESPN.com noted something interesting. According to them, the thing that will be interesting to watch will be if Hughes takes advantage of the big dimensions at Tropicana Field. He’s only allowed 16 home runs in 215 2/3 road innings for his career, but has given up four in 23 innings in Tampa.

So Rays fans, here we go! Lord knows that the first two games have been exciting, and I’ve got to believe that today’s 1:40 game will be as well. The starting lineup is below. As always, Go Rays!!!

Rays 4/8/12 Starting lineup:

Jennings CF
Pena 1B
Longoria 3B
Joyce LF
Zobrist RF
Scott DH
Keppinger 2B
Molina C
Rodriguez SS
Hellickson P