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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Season Finale, 7-2

Alex Cobb pitches against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning of their game at Progressive Field. (Photo courtesy of David Maxwell/Getty Images)

Put a fork in it, the Tampa Bay Rays’ most disappointing season since 2007 came to a close in disappointing fashion, with the Rays falling to the Cleveland Indians 7-2. The Rays ended the season with a 77-85 record, and their lowest offensive output since the Devil Rays days (more on that below). Alex Cobb took the mound against Indians starter TJ House and allowed ten hits, including a rare two homer second inning. Meanwhile House, while lasting only 49 pitches, proved to be effective, ultimately limiting the Rays to one run in five innings.

The Rays got on the board first in the second inning, thanks to a Sean Rodriguez home run; his 12th on the year and good enough for second best on the Rays (behind Evan Longoria). The one-run lead was short lived, however. David Murphy and Zach Walters both took Cobb deep in the bottom of the inning to give the Indians a one-run advantage.

Cleveland scored again in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Jose Ramirez plated Tyler Holt on a sac-fly.

The Rays managed to put another run on the board in the top of the sixth after Longoria brought Brandon Guyer home with a sac-fly of his own. Tampa Bay held the deficit to two runs until the seventh when the typically reliable Jeff Beliveau gave up three runs, blowing the game open for the Indians.

Brandon Gomes and CJ Riefenhauser finished the game for the Rays, though the offense would never be able to overcome the five run margin.

And that my friends, is how one of the most disappointing years on record ended on a whimper, not a bang. A few game and season peripherals follow.

Noteworthiness

At 612 runs scored (some 88 runs fewer than the previous season), the Rays scored the fewest runs in the American League this season, and the fewest in team history.
The Rays finished the season with 116 home runs hit (12th in the AL) — a difference of 53 runs from the previous year.
Meanwhile, at 1,437 K’s, Tampa Bay struck out the second most batters in MLB history, falling 13 short of the Indians.
The Rays ended the season with a 41-40 road record, and a 36-45 record at home.
Alex Cobb finished the season with a 2.87 ERA, which is fourth best in team history and sixth in the American League. The other Rays starters who ended their respective seasons (162 IP minimum) with a better ERA to that of Cobb were David Price with a 2.56 ERA in 2012 and a 2.72 ERA in 2010, and James Shields with a 2.82 ERA in 2011.
The Rays finished the 2014 season with 1.44 MM fans through the gate — a worst-in-the-league average of 17,858 fans per game — their poorest showing since 2007.As Noah Pransky of the Shadow of the Stadium blog writes,

The 2014 total represents nearly an 800 fan-per-game drop from 2013, which is about right given the team’s terrible start and season-long struggle to reach .500. The rest of MLB attendance remained about flat from 2013.

Its also worth noting the Rays enjoyed another good year on television and stand to make major financial gains when they renegotiate their TV contract, set to expire after the 2016 season.

The Indians dropped to just 274 fans per game ahead of Tampa Bay with three games to go, but the season-ending series against the Rays boosted that number back up to 570.

However, had the Indians counted their three weekday single-admission doubleheaders toward their attendance totals, their per-game average would look much different. If you added the 40,129 total fans who saw the three doubleheaders, the Indians’ average would be 18,241 — 344 fans ahead of the Rays. If you don’t double-count the fans from the doubleheader (we don’t know if they watched both games), the Indians would be averaging just 17,746 — 122 fans behind the Rays, who sold about 10,000 more tickets this year.
The Rays began their long off-season all too soon, though I can’t wait to see what kinds of moves they make to bolster the roster going into the 2015 season. While we won’t be putting together updates with the frequency that both Spring Training and the regular season schedules dictate, we’ll be keeping up with all the Hot Stove moves. Hell, maybe we’ll even write about the postseason (cough, let’s go Royals).That said, we’d love to add some contributors to the fold. Know how to read statistics, and have some writing chops? Are you a sarcastic old coot who hates the Yankees or Red Sox? Get in touch: Belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Alex Colome Impressive in Rays 2-0 Win

Alex Colome pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians. (Photo courtesy of Jason Miller/Getty Images)

If the last 30 days of play has been an audition of sorts between Alex Colome, Jeremy Hellickson, and Nate Karns, for the fifth starter spot ahead of Spring Training, then Colome saved one of his best performances for last. Suffice it to say, Colome was impressive in his 6-1/3 inning stint, allowing only five hitters to reach base on four hits and a walk, while blanking Cleveland and striking out six. Moreover, he put down all seven of the leadoff batters he faced, and allowed one lonely base runner to reach second throughout the course of his outing.

Colome’s fastball was on point, and he was able to induce eight of his 13 total weak contact outs on that pitch alone. He baffled the Indians with his slider all the while — coaxing 13 uncomfortable swings (five whiffs) from the opposing hitters. Not bad for a pitcher who has a history of command and control issues.

Alex Colome at-bat results (courtesy of Brooks Baseball).

Forget that Colome is projected to be on the 25-man roster in one capacity or another next season, thanks in part to the fact Colome’s out of options, last night’s start against the Indians was his compelling argument for a spot in the starting rotation, until Matt Moore returns from Tommy John surgery in late May or June.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the three pitchers vying for the fifth starter spot next season (assuming that Jeremy Hellickson isn’t traded in the off-season). In doing so, I looked that Colome, Hellickson, and Karns’ body of work over the last 30 days.

Alex Colome, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Karns over the last 30 days.

While Colome pitched seven fewer innings than Hellickson, he has averaged a greater number of innings per outing. That is, he’s pitched much more efficiently which has allowed him to go deeper into games. If this trend continues, I’d feel much more comfortable with Colome saving the bullpen, in a manner of speaking, every five days.

The New What Next

The final game, sound the death knell. Alex Cobb will get the start opposite of TJ House. This should be an interesting pitching matchup — after all, both Cobb and House have similar strikeout, walk, and ground ball numbers. On the subject of House, FanGraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman writes,

• The left-hander throws from a low ¾ release point (almost side arm) and lefties should have a problem hitting him. This season his FIP vs LHH is 2.82 and 3.92 vs RHH. Right-handed hitter won’t exactly tee off on him, it is just lefties will struggle mightily.
• His pitches all operated in a horizontal direction starting with his 87-93 mph fastball. Because of his low release point, it comes across the plate sideways.
• Additionally, he threw a change and slider. It is tough to differentiate these pitches from each other. They both come in at 81-84 mph, but the slider breaks more across the plate.
• He threw a 74 curve a couple of times. It looked like a decent pitch.
• He is getting a huge number of groundballs (61%, good for 2nd in the league, min 80 IP). His mechanics and pitches don’t seem to lead to such a high GB%.
• His fastball is the source of the high groundball rate since it sits at 65% for the season. All of his other pitches all have at least a 50% GB%.

Rays 9/28/14 Starting Lineup

Guyer LF
Myers RF
Longoria 3B
Forsythe 2B
Rodriguez 1B
Loney SH
Franklin SS
Molina C
Kiermaier CF
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

With his eighth inning stolen base, Ben Zobrist joined Andrew McCutchen and Hanley Ramirez as the only players to hit at least 10 homers and swipe at least 10 bags in each of the last six years.
Wil Myers snapped the Rays 19 inning scoreless streak with a broken bat single in the fourth. James Loney snapped the ensuing four inning scoreless streak with an RBI single in the eighth.
Marc Topkin writes, “In the unlikely event they (the Rays) can’t work something out, Maddon could manage out the last year of his contract then have the option to see what offers he could get as a free agent. And if the Rays didn’t sense they could strike a deal, they conceivably could let him go, or even trade him, this offseason.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Fall Despite Strong Effort By Archer

Chris Archer pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians. (Photo courtesy of Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Going into Friday night’s game, Rays starter Chris Archer set one goal for himself in this, his final start of the season: pitch strongly. And over the course of 7-2/3 innings of baseball, Archer put together his strongest outing of the season — holding the Indians to one run on three hits, while striking out six. Unfortunately for him,Jose Ramirez took advantage of a first inning mistake pitch for the only run of the game, and the Rays had to butt heads with the 2014 Cy Young Award contender, Corey Kluber.

The opinion of many, Archer needs to master one more pitch — say, a change-up — before he can meet his potential. Ian Malinowski touched on that in his latest piece for DRaysBay. However, Archer used his change to great effect last night, tossing it for strikes 71% of the time (1 Whiff, 2 balls in play with an out, 7 strikes not in play) and throwing off the timing of the opposing hitters along the way. Archer avoided the big inning and only allowed one base runner to get past first base after Ramirez’s first inning solo shot. In the end, the right handed version of DP pitched very well, giving up only three hits while walking two.

Sadly Archer walked away with the tough luck loss, thanks to Kluber. The sweeping movement he got on both his sinker and his curve was pretty remarkable, and he had the ability to work those pitches to the edges of the zone. Kluber set up the Rays hitters with his backdoor breaking pitches, and sinkers at the bottom of the zone, then put them away with an outside power curve to righties, and sinkers on the outside corner to lefties. Sequencing, sequencing, sequencing… Kulber masterfully hit his spots, and put down Tampa Bay’s two scoring opportunities — the first following a triple by Kevin Kiermaier in the fifth inning, and the other following a Kiermaier walk in the seventh inning, which put two on with two outs. In the case of the seventh, Ryan Hanigan struck out looking to end the threat and the inning.

Archer ended his first full year in the bigs with three consecutive solid outings, a 3.42 ERA and a very respectable 3.36 FIP.

The New What Next

Alex Colome will make his final start of the 2014 season against Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco (5-2, 1.32 ERA) has been very good in his nine starts since rejoining the Indians rotation. While Carrasco is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Rays in his previous 11 innings of work, the 27 year-old RHP held the Rays hit-less in 1-2/3 innings of work out of the pen in the aforementioned May series at The Trop. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 9/27/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist CF
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Franklin SS
Joyce LF
Hanigan C
Forsythe 2B
Colome RHP

Noteworthiness

Sour grapes, Archer was one out short of a potential complete game on his 26th birthday. I still don’t know why Maddon didn’t leave him in. Had Joe left Archer in, he would have become the second AL pitcher in 20 years to throw a complete game on his birthday (Sabathia did so against TB on 7/21/11).

Rays 9/26/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

Rays 9/26/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Franklin SS
Joyce RF
Guyer LF
Kiermaier CF
Hanigan C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

“The Rays are facing an uphill battle to keep their franchise relevant in a market that may not truly be a big-league market,” writes Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors. He went on, “Those who don’t sign extensions, after all, will see their price tags soar in arbitration at an ever-increasing rate, and offense is only getting more expensive. As such, the Rays’ lack of revenue — the team drew just 1.446MM fans this season — is a significant concern.”
Evan Longoria has played in 239 straight games, the second longest active streak behind Hunter Pence (380).
After going a team record 94 games without allowing double-digit runs, the Rays have done so three times in last four games.
Don’t forget to check out our Rays vs. Indians series preview. If you already have, make it a two’fer.

The New What Next: Rays vs. Indians — the Final Series

The funeral procession that is the Rays’ season will conclude this weekend in Cleveland, where Tampa Bay is slated to take on the Indians in a three-game set. Any hopes of a positive outcome to the season came to pass days ago, and we’re left with an overwhelming desire to just nail the coffin shut. Thursday night’s 11-1 loss to the Red Sox certainly didn’t help.

In a bout of déjà vu, the Indians still have a mathematical chance of making the playoffs for the second consecutive season. You’d better believe that Francona and company will be fired up when they take the field Friday night. If I may, it’s sad when you consider that both teams battled one another in the AL Wildcard game a little more than a year ago — a fact that isn’t lost on the Rays or Joe Maddon.

Tampa Bay dropped two of three back in May, and if anything, there’s a hope to end the season series with a win. In that series, David DeJesus and Evan Longoria went a combined 11-for-24 (.458). However, Longoria is a .175 hitter in 17 career games at Progressive Field, his lowest average at an American League ballpark. Cleveland’s pitchers have accumulated 1,419 strikeouts this season — nine shy of the Major League record set by Detroit last year. Yan Gomes is batting .316 with 10 home runs, 13 doubles and 41 RBI in his last 54 games — he has 20 RBI in 21 September games, while Carlos Santana’s 112 walks are the most by a switch hitter since Lance Berkman’s 127 for the Astros in 2004.

Chris Archer, Alex Colome, and Alex Cobb are the scheduled starters for Tampa Bay. Cobb is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against the Indians (that doesn’t include his 6-2/3 shutout innings in last year’s AL Wild Card Game). He has a 1.49 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break. Colome (2-1, 1.59 ERA as a starter) will take the hill Saturday in his third start of the season and sixth of his career.

Rays and Indians series starters (over the last 30 days). Correction:

Rays and Indians offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).

Corey Kluber: Kluber (17-9, 2.53 ERA) will get the start Friday night, not House. The presumptive Cy Young Award Winner is among the league’s leaders in wins, strikeouts, ERA and virtually all other metrics used by those who look much deeper than win-loss record. Per the Associated Press, Kluber has recorded 14 strikeouts in back-to-back starts, becoming the first pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2004 to do so. The right-hander has a 1.39 ERA while winning his last four starts, and his 258 strikeouts are the most for a Cleveland pitcher since “Sudden” Sam McDowell’s 304 in 1970.” He struck out nine while allowing two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win over Tampa Bay on May 9. Key matchups: David DeJesus (3-5, 2 2B, RBI), Logan Forsythe (1-3), Ryan Hanigan (1-3), Matt Joyce (1-4), James Loney (1-3, RBI), Evan Longoria (2-4).

Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco (5-2, 1.32 ERA) has been very good in his nine starts since rejoining the Indians rotation. While Carrasco is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA against the Rays in his previous 11 innings of work, the 27 year-old RHP held the Rays hit-less in 1-2/3 innings of work out of the pen in the aforementioned May series at The Trop. Key matchups: David DeJesus (1-4, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-6, HR, RBI), Sean Rodriguez (1-3, RBI), Ben Zobrist (1-4, RBI, BB).

Danny Salazar: Salazar has struck out 24 and walked five in his last three starts, covering 17 2/3 innings. He is 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA in his last 12 starts. This will be the first appearance by the 24 year-old RHP. Per his scouting report Salazar is said to have, “plenty of arm strength, clocked as high as 100 MPH and working regularly in the mid-90s. He’s always had good velocity, but he came back stronger after surgery. He has a very good changeup, but the real key has been improvement of his breaking ball. This was poor early in his career (reflected in his weak strikeout rates in A-ball), but he’s made great strides with it over the last year. It is variously described as a slider or power curve, but it is effective when he’s on, and he’s usually been on in ’13.”

Noteworthiness

Indians reliever Bryan Shaw has made 79 appearances this season, tying the club record set by Bobby Howry in 2005.
Per Marc Topkin, “With no other catchers on the 40-man roster, the Rays will stick with just veterans Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina over the final days of the season even though neither is at 100 percent. INF Sean Rodriguez is the third catcher, though likely would be used only in an emergency.”