Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win 5-3, Tied For First

Best at-bat photo ever. Erasmo Ramirez stepped to the plate with a huge smile on his face in the second inning. (Photo credit: the Tampa Bay Rays)
The Tampa Bay Rays won their second consecutive game, this time by a 5-3 score over the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. The team struck first and eventually scored in four of their first five at-bats, while the pitching staff, with Erasmo Ramirez at the helm, held the Braves to three runs on four hits. Tampa Bay is now 22-18 and tied for first in the AL East.

The Rays scored first, taking a 1-0 lead two batters into the game after Kevin Kiermaier hit a bloop triple into right field — a hit that would have been a single by a mere mortal.

The Outlaw scored on a single to right off the bat of Steven Souza Jr.

Yet on the heels of the lead and an efficient 14-pitch, 1-2-3 first by Erasmo Ramirez, Atlanta took a short lived 3-1 lead in the second. Nick Markakis led off the inning with a walk, then moved to third on Todd Cunningham’s double to right. A.J. Pierzynski followed by dropping his elbow into the the path of an 0-2 pitch, consequently loading the bases. Andrelton Simmons tied the game with an RBI walk, and Cameron Maybin singled to right to put the Braves ahead. Ramirez was able to limit the damage from there, allowing just one more run on a Jace Peterson ground ball out to first.

The righty pitched his way into a big jam, due in part to his struggles with the grip on his fastball:

It was rare for me, but with (catcher Rene Rivera’s) help, I just tried to mix it up and see which pitches I was feeling at that time, Ramirez said. That was the only way we got out of the inning.

Yet Erasmo did something he hadn’t before after relinquishing three or more runs in an inning — Ramirez went into lock-down mode. The righty made the proper in-game adjustments and pitched his way into his second straight win. The adjustments allowed him to retire 12 of his last 13 hitters.

In the end, Ramirez proved he could make another effective start. He also proved that a shaky inning does not an unsteady outing make, telling Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), “you try just to fight back.” He did just that and offered his team a solid five inning start on 80 pitches (52 strikes, 65% K%).

Down by two, Tampa Bay tied the game with single tallies in the third and fourth innings against Mike Foltynewicz. Souza singled and quickly stole second to get into scoring position. Evan Longoria, who has now driven in 14 runs in the month of May, cut the Braves lead to one on a single through the middle in the third inning, and Asdrubal Cabrera crushed a solo shot to deep right to knot the game at three in the fourth.

Tampa Bay took the lead for good in the fifth, and it all started with a two-out walk of James Loney. The Rays first baseman was wild pitched to second just prior to an RBI single to left-field by Logan Forsythe, scoring the lead run. David DeJesus padded the lead on an RBI double to left. That run proved important, as the final 13 Rays were retired in order. The team collected eight hits on the night — including two from Souza who lead the attack.

Xavier Cedeño took over for Ramirez in the sixth and put down the front two batters before allowing a double to Pierzynski of all people. Manager Kevin Cash called upon Brandon Gomes to get the final out of the inning, and he did not disappoint. Gomes needed just two pitches to force a foul-ball out to Longoria from Simmons.

Kevin Jepsen worked the seventh and worked around a lead off walk. While his command appeared to evade Jepsen after he got into three consecutive three-ball counts, the reliever put down the next three batters, stranding the Braves catcher at second.

Cash turned to Jake-and-the-Box for the eighth and ninth innings. Jake McGee put together another strong appearance, striking out two while allowing just a single, and Brad Boxberger pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for his 11th save.

To review: Ramirez had it in the first, lost it in the second, and regained it once more in the third through fifth innings. Meanwhile Cedeño allowed a double and nothing else, Gomes worked around an inherited runner, and Jake-and-the-Box combined to post two scoreless innings.

The New What Next

The Rays and Braves will wrap up the short two-game set tonight. Contrary to what I wrote previously, Jake Odorizzi (not Nathan Karns) will start opposite of Williams Perez. Karns instead will start Saturday against the A’s at the Trop. A Rays win and a Yankee loss will find Tampa Bay in sole possession of first place. You can read about the matchup in our series preview.

Rays 5/20/15 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
DeJesus LF
Cabrera SS
Rivera C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— In a surprising move, LHP Drew Smyly has apparently opted to try to pitch again this season after undergoing a regimen of rest and rehab for the torn labrum in his left shoulder.

In a media session Tuesday, Cash said the team is very “optimistic” and has heard good things, which may imply that Smyly was opting to try and come back this season:

I’ll say this about Smyly, everything is going, we’re optimistic, but we’re going to wait until we get back when Drew is there to where we can kind of sit down with Drew and talk.

According to Topkin, under a rest and rehab program, it would seem the best case for Smyly to return — if all goes well — would be sometime in August. If he had the surgery, he would be out for the rest of this season and possibily part of 2016.

Team officials should know more after they return from Atlanta, either Thursday or Friday.

— The Rays have the sixth best ERA in baseball (3.43, second best in the AL), and the fifth most strikeouts in the bigs (340).

Rays 5/19/15 Starting Lineup, Etc

(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports)
(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports)

Rays 5/19/15 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
DeJesus LF
Cabrera SS
Rivera C
Ramirez RHP

Noteworthiness

— Wait, someone from ESPN actually complimented the Rays? Is the sky falling? Pssh…what’s next? A non-hyperbolic article on attendance throughout Major League Baseball?

— Would you look at that, Maury Brown’s (Forbes) wrote a short, but interesting article on how more and more fan are choosing to watch the games on TV. As Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium) asserted,

Maybe the most amazing discovery in the article is that a higher percentage of Tampa Bay households were watching sports last Wednesday than households in Boston…and the Rays game drew a higher rating than the Red Sox (and many other MLB teams in their home markets).

— Deep Thoughts on tonight’s starter, Erasmo Ramirez. The righty was shelled by the Braves last season, allowing five runs and eight hits in three innings. However, this bears mentioning:

— You can read about tonight’s pitching matchup in our series preview. If you’ve already read the piece, make it a two’fer!

The New What Next: Rays vs. Braves — A Series Preview

James Loney hits an RBI-double off J.R. Graham in the ninth inning on Sunday. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)
James Loney hits an RBI-double off J.R. Graham in the ninth inning on Sunday. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)

The Tampa Bay Rays avoided a sweep by Minnesota on Sunday by amassing 19 hits in an 11-3 win. Their next stop is Atlanta, where they’ll take on the Braves, who are coming off a three-game sweep of the Marlins.

For the Rays, Nathan Karns was initially projected to take the hill on Tuesday. However, manager Kevin Cash indicated that Erasmo Ramirez would get the ball instead, giving Karns — who is now slated to pitch on Wednesday — an extra day of rest.

Ramirez allowed four hits and two runs over a nine inning span from April 28-May 11, and followed by surrendering just one hit in five scoreless innings against the New York Yankees on Thursday. Cash told MLB.com,

He’s done a nice job. This was obviously his best start that he’s had, but he’s had some really strong outings where he’s come in against some good lineups and thrown strikes.

Ramirez told Marc Tokin (Tampa Bay Times) that his job is to continue doing what he’s done over the last 19 innings of work:

This is another opportunity to continue what I’ve been doing. Try to keep the ball down. They’re aggressive swingers, kind of like a young team. But I have to pitch by my strengths.

Karns also pitched well in his last start. The righty picked up a win Wednesday against the visiting Yankees, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks while fanning six in five innings of work.

Mike Foltynewicz will take the bump for the Braves on Tuesday. While the righty has been decent in three starts since arriving from Triple-A Gwinnett, he has been far from dominant. In his most recent outing, Foltynewicz limited the Cincinnati Reds to three runs (two earned) and six hits while striking out seven in 6-2/3 innings — this after going a combined 10-1/3 in his first two appearances.

As Topkin wrote of Foltynewicz,

Was a 2010 first-round pick by Astros, acquired in Evan Gattis trade. Debuted in August 2014. Lost twice but pitched well against Rays’ Triple-A Durham team before May 1 promotion.

Rookie RHP Williams Perez, who will take Eric Stults’ spot in the starting rotation after the lefty was moved to the bullpen, will start opposite of Karns. Perez previously made two appearances out of the ‘pen since being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett on May 6.

Tampa Bay (21-18) is 6-4 over a 10-game stretch, and 9-7 away from the Trop. Atlanta (18-19) is 5-5 over a 10-game stretch, and 8-8 at home.

Rays and Braves series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves offensive production over the last 14 days.
Rays and Braves by the numbers.
Rays and Braves by the numbers.

Mike Foltynewicz: Any questions about Foltynewicz don’t have much to do with whether he has swing and miss stuff (he does; 9.3 K/9 over 119-1/3 innings at Triple-A), or if he can coax grounders (he can; a 44.9% mark since 2011). Rather the question begs, can avoid the walk — something he’s struggled with recently:

2013 – 4.59 BB/9
2014 – 4.56 BB/9

According to Pitch f/x data, his fastball routinely sits in the upper-90’s, though he reached 101 mph in the big leagues last season. However, he’s had to work on fastball command and improving the consistency of his off speed pitches, including a power slider which he’s started to incorporate into his arsenal.

Williams Perez: Prior to this season, Perez was considered to be a soft-tossing command and control pitcher, however, he added some velocity to his sinker, pushing it into the low-90s. The 23 year-old RHP combines that with a good change up in a pitch-to-contact approach that keeps batters off balance. And while that approach tends to limit the free passes, Perez has walked four hitters in his accrued 2-1/3 innings of work with the Braves.

Noteworthiness

— Tampa Bay has a 15-2 record when scoring first, but the team is 6-16 when not.

— Ramirez was shelled by the Braves last season, allowing five runs and eight hits in three innings. Nevertheless, this bears mentioning:

— As you’re likely aware of by now, LHP Jake McGee pitched one scoreless inning in his return to action on Sunday. The lefty told the media it was comforting to know he hit 97 mph several times:

It was good to get out there and feel good and throws strikes and get ahead of guys.

Per Brooks Baseball pitch f/x data, it doesn’t seem like McGee’s offseason surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow has done anything to negatively impact his fastball. In essence, when you compare his most recent outing with his pre-surgery numbers, his fastball is essentially the same pitch.

Jake McGee velocity chart. McGee's most recent appearance is represented by the dots furthest to the right.
Jake McGee velocity chart. McGee’s most recent appearance is represented by the dots furthest to the right.

His fastball velocity averaged .65 of a mph under his average from last season. I’d call that a negligible difference. Besides, a marginal dip in velocity is expected out of a pitcher at the beginning of the season. How about the rise and run on his fastball? Let’s take a look.

Jake McGee horizontal movement.
Jake McGee horizontal movement chart.
Jake McGee vertical movement chart.
Jake McGee vertical movement chart.

There doesn’t seem to be any noticeable difference in the rise and run of his most dominant pitch. And while 14 pitches is an incredibly small sample size, all early indications are positive — his fastball hasn’t changed.

Rays manager Kevin Cash maintains that he’ll use Brad Boxberger and McGee in save situations, depending on matchups.

— Pitching and defense. Through 39 games, the Rays 139 runs allowed are the third fewest
in club history, and their 156 runs scored are the fewest since 2004 (145). Moreover, Tampa Bay leads the majors with a 2.84 ERA in 26 games since April 21. They’ve lowered the team ERA from 4.64 to 3.45.

— Despite going 3-14 against the Marlins, Freddie Freeman is hitting .388 in his last 20 games.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Resilient Rays Sit A Game Out of First

Evan Longoria is greeted in the dugout after scoring on a hit by David DeJesus in the sixth inning on Sunday. Both Longoria and James Loney drove in the runs. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Evan Longoria is greeted in the dugout after scoring on a hit by David DeJesus in the sixth inning on Sunday. Both Longoria and James Loney drove in the runs. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)

The Tampa Bay Rays avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of the Twins on Sunday, demolishing Minnesota to the tune of an 11-3 score. The team collected a season high 19 hits although, interestingly enough, only four went for extra-bases — all doubles. Nary a home run was hit, and the meat of the production came on 14 singles and three walks.

It was particularly nice to see Evan Longoria and James Loney drive in six total runs (three apiece) on six combined base-hits. Neither attempted to over swing or do too much, rather they were given scoring opportunities and did what was expected of them. See ball, hit ball as it were. Consider Sunday’s game the yin to last Monday’s yang. After all, the Rays did to the Twins what the Yankees did to Tampa Bay almost a week ago — put up 11 runs.

The team now owns a 21-18 record with a run differential of 17, seated just one game out of first place in the AL East. Juxtapose that with the 2014 Rays, who posted a 16-23 record after 39 games, along with a gaudy -17 run differential. All this in spite of the fact they’re missing starters Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore (who is expected back before July), DH John Jaso and outfielder Desmond Jennings.

The team has been resilient, and has not allowed its shortcomings to get in the way. Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the team’s resiliency,

…The reasons they have been able to overcome is longer, from the rotation-leading efforts by Archer and Jake Odorizzi, a dominating bullpen, usually tidy defense, and contributions from some unexpected places such as Logan Forsythe sharing the team lead in RBIs, David DeJesus their top hitter, Steve Geltz a key part of the pen.

Next stop Atlanta, where the Rays are set to start a two-game, intraleague series against the Braves on Tuesday. They’ll follow with a four-game set against the West Coast Rays…urm, Oakland A’s on Thursday. Since Tampa Bay won’t be playing the Yankees or Red Sox, I fully anticipate crowds greater than 14,000.

I digress.

As of now, the Rays have anywhere from a 21.3% – 48.7% chance of a postseason berth (per FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, respectively). While one fourth of the way through a marathon-like season does not a playoff contender make, the prospect of being a contender past September is much better than chronically scratching at the eight-ball. …And it didn’t even take some trite motivational stunt to get them there  — no offense, Joe.

FYI: This post was modified from the one I wrote previously for DRaysBay.

Noteworthiness

— And here I thought Chris Archer got the flu started in the clubhouse with his gutsy performance back on April 26th.

— The newly reactivated Jake McGee breezed through his seventh inning appearance on Sunday, ringing up a pair of batters and coaxing a foul-out. Among his efficient 14 pitches (nine for strikes), McGee mixed in two curveballs. The lefty told the media it was comforting to know he hit 97 mph several times:

It was good to get out there and feel good and throws strikes and get ahead of guys.

— Matt Moore’s return is imminent! Moore will throw a simulated game in Port Charlotte on Monday, which should be his last batting practice outing before an extended spring game then a rehab assignment.

— According to Beyond the Boxscore, the Rays rank third in baseball by FIP-. Additionally Jake Odorizzi is the fifth best pitcher in baseball by, you guessed it, FIP-.

— The best tweet of the week comes courtesy of Empty Seats Galore:

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Of Luck Dragons and Losses

Tim Beckham and Kevin Kiermaier doing their best Bash Brothers impression. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Tim Beckham and Kevin Kiermaier doing their best Bash Brothers impression. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Jim Mone)
If the second consecutive loss by the Tampa Bay Rays could be summed up in one brief sentence, the recap would likely read: The BABIP luck dragons nipped at the heels of the Rays in a sloppy 6-4 loss to the Minnesota Twins.

Don’t get me wrong, neither Alex Colome or the Rays offense were sharp Saturday. Rays manager Kevin Cash didn’t show much tolerance for Colome’s contact laden outing, pulling the righty in the fourth inning after tossing just 60 pitches.

I don’t know why in the fourth inning somebody was up in the bullpen, but they know what they do, Colome said following the game. I don’t know where I stand now. I don’t know what my pitch count is or anything. I take whatever they do.

To that end, Tampa Bay went 2-8 wRISP despite a handful of key opportunities…cough, a leadoff triple by Asdrubal Cabrera in the third, runners on first and second in the fourth, a runner on second in the fifth, so on and so forth. Still, I’d argue the loss had more to do with luck and misplays.

For the uninitiated, BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits, excluding home runs. By my estimation, there were at least five unlucky hits that — when combined with the team’s overall sloppiness — led to the loss.

Take for example a first inning pop-up in shallow right that fell in between Tim Beckham and Steven Souza. While Souza had a better angle on the play, the ball was never caught and instead fell into play. To his credit, Souza was able to gun down Brian Dozier at second on the play.

The luck dragons continued to nip in the second inning, when Cabrera was a step shy on a couple of ground balls that were consequently converted into a pair of runs. He was also a step shy on one or two others as the game progressed.

Then there was the third inning liner, off the bat of Torii Hunter, that popped out of James Loney’s glove.

Unfortunately for the Rays, the Twins pounced on a lapse in judgment and a throwing error.

Kevin Kiermaier threw the ball home on Eddie Rosario’s single to center in the second inning, costing the Rays a run when Rosario moved up to seconde and eventually scored.

The most egregious play came in the seventh with the score knotted at three. With runners at first and second and just one out, Trevor Plouffe chopped a comebacker in front of the mound. Kevin Jepsen fielded the ball cleanly, but let loose with a rushed and errant throw that pulled Tim Beckham off the bag. The error loaded the bases for Kurt Suzuki, who hit a sacrifice fly, and Eduardo Escobar, who hit an RBI single that allowed the Twins to take a two-run lead.

Jepsen talked about his gaffe after the game,

Comebacker, I thought I had more time. By the time I turned around and looked, he was a lot closer than I expected. So, instead of just eating it and throwing to first, I tried to rush it and threw the ball up the line.

Rays manager Kevin Cash likened the gaffes to those made in Spring Training,

We work on it quite a bit in spring training. It’s just a typical play, he knows, we know, we need to make those plays. We’ve played very well defensively. (Saturday) you just saw a couple plays that showed up and impacted the game a little bit.

The Rays are now 0-2 in the regular season version of the Knutson Classic.

The New What Next

Rain is in the forecast for the series finale. If the game is played, Chris Archer will toe the rubber opposite of Kyle Gibson. Archer is second in the American League with 58 strikeouts, while Gibson has allowed just three runs in his last 28 innings. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 5/17/15 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Forsythe DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer RF
DeJesus LF
Cabrera SS
Franklin 2B
Wilson C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Andrew Bellatti was sent to Triple-A Durham and INF Nick Franklin (left oblique strain) was activated from the DL. Bellatti didn’t allow a run in two appearances since the Rays called him up a week ago. The move gives the Rays 13 position players and 12 pitchers again.

— A huge thank you to all who showed up for our first watch party of the year! Keep your ear to the ground for the announcement of the next one to follow.