— Forget not, the Rays start the day as one of three teams with 40 wins or more. The other two teams are the St. Louis Cardinals with 45, and the Houston Astros with 41.
“Melissa Mayeux, a shortstop on the French U-18 junior national team, became the first known female baseball player to be added to MLB’s international registration list, which means she will be eligible to be signed by a Major League club on July 2.”
— Michael Metcalfe (Manic Ball blog) questions how players generally perform after having Tommy John surgery. Metcale concludes that the success rate is fairly high (around 80-85% return to their prior level of performance), although that can be a bit misleading, because “the medical community is more concerned about is the subjective report from the athlete and the objective success of the surgery in restoring the normal stability of the joint.”
Jake Elmore reacts after striking out against Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Cody Allen. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Tony Dejak)The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their dominance over the Blue Jays when they welcome Joey Bats and company into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Monday. The Rays, who lead the American League with a combined 3.28 ERA, have won six of seven against the major league’s top-scoring team in 2015, holding the Blue Jays to two runs or fewer five times. The team returns home after a solid 4-1 road-trip, having won eight of 10 overall to maintain a one-game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees — three ahead of the Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay will start Matt Andriese, Chris Archer and Nathan Karns over the course of the series. Andriese has won his last two outings — once each as a starter and a reliever — while allowing just two runs over 9-2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox and Washington. The Rays have won in his last six appearances, while the righty which has fanned 16 and walked three. Archer put 10 men on base (eight hits and two walks) and struck out just three in five innings on Thursday, but limited the damage to three runs and came away with the win. Karns allowed one run on six hits while walking one and striking out four over 5-1/3 innings on Friday night.
For Toronto, the Blue Jays will attempt to continue their winning ways of late. The Jays have dropped four of their last seven, showing that the mighty team from the great white north can be stopped. The potentially brief lull came after the Blue Jays won 11 in a row, while scoring (on average) close to seven runs per game over the last 18 games. Toronto’s pitching staff allowed just under four runs (on average) per game in that span. Adding to their reputation of being a powerful team, nine of the last 14 wins have been lopsided.
However, the Blue Jays have made a nasty habit of putting it all together, only to return to mediocrity afterward. In fact, they did so in each of the last two seasons.
2014: Toronto won nine straight, and 15 out of 17, then dropped 10 of 13.
2013: Though they won 11 straight, the Blue Jays followed by dropping a pair to Tampa Bay, then losing 19 of the next 25 games (going into the All-Star Break).
Are they a good team? Absolutely, that goes without saying. But, they just can’t seem to put it together consistently. The Rays can put some distance between themselves and the Jays with a series win this week.
Rays and Blue Jays series starters of the last 14 days.Rays and Blue Jays offensive numbers over the last 14 days.Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers.Drew Hutchison: Hutchison (6-1, 5.33 ERA) has won his last three decisions, allowing one run combined across 21 innings in the trio of wins. However, Hutchison owns a 5.65 ERA in those three starts. He has been inconsistent, permitting five or more runs in five of his 14 starts and two or fewer in seven of them. Hutchison is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA in five career outings against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (1-3, 3B), David DeJesus (1-3, HR, RBI), Brandon Guyer (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2 2B, BB).
RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey will return from the bereavement list Monday and is in line to make his next scheduled start Tuesday, SportsNet’s Shi Davidi reports. The Rays “figured out” Dickey the last time they faced the knuckle-baller on April 24. They chased him from the game after just 4-2/3 innings, tagging Dickey for eight runs on nine hits including two homers. However, you can never be sure of what you’ll get when RA is on the mound. One thing is certain, he’s allowed four or more runs four times since the 24th, and seven times overall. Furthermore, Dickey is showing regression — his O-Swing (27.8%), first-pitch strike (58.1%), and swinging strike (9.0%) rates are down, while his Z-swing (68.3%), Z-contact (83.7%), and overall contact (80.7%) rates are up. Combine his regressed numbers with a decrease in knuckleball velocity, and you’re left with a pitcher who has become a middle of the rotation starter with a -0.2 WAR, not an ace. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (5-13, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (4-14, 2 2B, 3 BB), Evan Longoria (9-35, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Rene Rivera (1-4, HR, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. 1-2, RBI, BB).
Marco Estrada: Per Rotowire, Estrada flirted with a no-hitter, eventually allowing one run on one hit, walking four and striking out six over seven-plus innings of a 5-4 win against the Orioles on Friday night. As Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) pointed out, Estrada has increased his reliance upon his change-up to great effect: “He’s throwing the change more often than ever before, and it’s still getting as many whiffs as ever (23.1% whiff rate). …Estrada has the fourth-best change-up among starters by whiff rate. But if you look at his overall line, you can see he’s doing the same thing as ever — showing a great whiff rate, a decent walk rate, a low BABIP… and a terrible home run rate.” Estrada allowed just two hits and two walks to the Rays in 4-1/3 combined innings of work this season. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-1, RBI).
Noteworthiness
— Steve Geltz has retired 25 consecutive batters, one shy of Kyle Farnsworth’s franchise record in 2011.
— The Rays are 19-2 when Evan Longoria knocks in a run this season. Longoria has 86 RBIs in 121 career games against the Blue Jays.
— Matt Moore made his fourth (of five or six) rehab start on Sunday with Triple-A Durham and, and threw 92 pitches over 5-1/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits (two home runs) while striking out seven and walking one. The lefty reportedly felt good after after the start, clocking in the 92-93 mph range with his fastball. He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session at the Trop on Tuesday, then be reevaluated for the next step. The lefty return to the rotation in 10-15 days, putting his return around July 1.
— Jake Odorizzi threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Monday afternoon at Tropicana Field. He told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) that the plan right now is for him to rejoin the rotation in two weeks. Between then and now Odorizzi will throw another bullpen session (on Wednesday), throw live batting practice on Saturday, and begin a rehabilitation assignment thereafter.
— Other Rays injury updates: James Loney fielded ground balls at the Trop Monday afternoon; he is scheduled to take dry swings later this week. John Jaso hit in the batting cage to face more velocity than he would in batting practice. Finally, Drew Smyly threw long toss from 105 feet.
— Erasmo Ramirez told Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times) that he’s feeling better, and will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, which will determine whether he’ll start this Friday against the Red Sox.
— Jose Bautista is 5-11 with eight RBI in his last four games and has reached base in 29 of the last 30 contests.
Erasmo Ramirez, right, talks with catcher Rene Rivera before leaving a game in the fourth inning. (Photo Credit: the Associated Press)Right handed hurler Erasmo Ramirez became the latest victim of the injury bug that has plagued the Tampa Bay Rays clubhouse. Yet the team got six strong innings from its ‘pen after he departed, resulting in a 4-1 win over the Cleveland Indians. Brad Boxberger, working in his third consecutive game, got into a jam in the ninth inning — loading the bases with two out — though he fanned Giovanny Urshela (looking) to end the game, giving Boxberger his 18th save. At 40-30 on the season (a mile marker 10 games over .500), Tampa Bay made it a 4-0 start to the five-game road trip, as they look to win their fifth straight in the series finale on Sunday. The Rays still lead the Yankees by a game in the AL East.
Ramirez left the game one batter into the fourth inning with what the Rays called a “right groin strain.” The righty sailed along through the front three innings, using only 33 pitches to put down Jason Kipnis and the Indians. Yet there was a noticeable difference in the fourth inning, and after a 1-2 pitch to Francisco Lindor, Ramirez winced on the follow-through and grabbed his groin before being lifted. Erasmo also followed through gingerly on the previous pitch.
Ramirez told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) and others that he felt a cramp while throwing the second pitch to Lindor during the at-bat. And while tried to stretch his groin before his next pitch, the cramp felt worse while stretching his legs on the delivery. It is thought that the initial injury could have occurred when Erasmo covered first on a Michael Brantly groundout in the first inning. Ramirez slipped as he stretched his right leg to find the bag on the play.
After a two disastrous appearances to start the season, Ramirez has developed into a valuable starter for the Rays — posting a 2.36 ERA and 3.50 FIP, while fanning 20% of the batters he’s faced and coaxing grounders 45% of the time. He joins a laundry list of eight other injured pitchers (among other injured position players):
Alex Cobb (Tommy John surgery)
Drew Smyly (attempting to rehab a torn labrum)
Matt Moore (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery)
Jake Odorizzi (oblique strain)
Andrew Bellatti (shoulder tendonitis)
Burch Smith (Tommy John surgery)
Jeff Beliveau (torn labrum)
Jose Dominguez (minor-league DL)
However, it isn’t all doom and gloom. The initial post-game examination was encouraging, but the Rays won’t know for a few days if Ramirez will miss time, or become the fifth starting pitcher on the DL.
Don’t quite know the severity of it. So far we’re hearing good things, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. Maybe we caught it early enough, so we’ll see over the next couple of days how he responds to treatment.
Always the eager one, Ramirez said he expects to make his next start, but he and the team will know more Tuesday when he is scheduled to throw a bullpen session.
I don’t feel it’s that bad, for real, Ramirez said.
Working in the Rays’ favor, the team will have a well deserved off-day on Thursday, and they could skip Ramirez’s next turn in the rotation — buying the team nine days of rest before Erasmo’s next start. That could be enough time for his groin to heal, dependent upon the severity, and the ultimate diagnosis, of the injury.
If Ramirez is placed on the DL, the expected return of LHP Matt Moore and righties Jake Odorizzi and Andrew Bellatti could mitigate the impact on the rotation. Moore is slated to make two more rehabilitation starts with Triple-A Durham (on Sunday and Friday), putting his return around July 1st. Bellatti and Odorizzi “both reported feeling really, really good” after throwing off the mound for the first time Saturday at Tropicana Field, Cash said. They are scheduled to throw full bullpen sessions on Monday, and if all goes as planned, Odorizzi would likely need to make two rehab starts before returning.
The New What Next
Alex Colome (3-3, 5.14 ERA) will start for the Rays, opposite of RHP Cody Anderson and Cleveland. El Coballo will try to rebound from a disastrous two-inning outing in his last start, one in which he threw 43 pitches in the second inning alone. He said he has addressed a few mechanical issues between starts and should be good to go on Sunday. Anderson has been recalled from Triple-A Columbus, and it will mark the Major League debut for the 24-year-old Anderson, who posted a 1.89 ERA in 71-1/3 innings between Double-A Akron and Triple-A this season. You can read about the series finale in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.
Rays 6/21/15 Starting Lineup
Kiermaier CF
Butler LF
Longoria 3B
DeJesus DH
Forsythe 2B
Souza RF
Cabrera SS
Elmore 1B
Casali C
Colome RHP
Noteworthiness
— Speaking just moments before Ramirez left Saturday’s game with a groin strain, longtime MLB pitcher Dennis Martinez (Ramirez’s hero) heaped praise on his fellow Nicaraguan,
Erasmo is a great kid, said Martinez. He comes from a family that lives in a little town, where he has done everything possible he can out of nowhere. Nobody believed in him because of his size and everything else. But that kid is so strong and so good and so humble. Everything you see on him is a smile. And it’s a pure smile.
— Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), Ramirez said his strained groin feels “way better” today (Sunday), but the key test will be his bullpen session on Tuesday.
— Only one team in Major League Baseball has more wins than Tampa Bay — the St. Louis Cardinals have 45.
Carlos Carrasco waits as Joey “he can hit” Butler rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the first inning at Progressive Field on Friday. (Photo Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images)The Tampa Bay Rays homered three times on Friday in a 4-1 win over Cleveland. At 39-30 (and an MLB best 20-11 on the road), Tampa Bay is a season-best nine games over .500 after their third straight victory.
Joey “he can hit” Butler put the Rays on the board early after homering to right for the second straight game, and giving Tampa Bay an early one run advantage. Butler’s no doubter came on a thigh-high hanging breaking pitch that Carlos Carrasco left over the plate, and the mistake was absolutely tattooed.
But Cleveland struck back early against Nathan Karns, who allowed hits to the first two batters (double to Jason Kipnis, bunt single toFrancisco Lindor) in the bottom of the first. Karns was able to get Michael Brantley to lined out to first, but the Indians tied the game on a wild pitch — the first of two by the Rays starter. Yet Karns limited the damage, and Asdrubal Cabrera homered in the second to give Tampa Bay the lead once more. It was Cabrera’s first at-bat in Cleveland, in his homecoming at Progressive Field after spending eight seasons with the Indians.
Karns settled down and became stingy from there, posting 5-1/3 innings of one run ball, and holding Cleveland to 1-6 wRISP. Nathan was pulled one out into the sixth after allowing a pair to reach on back-to-back singles by Michael Brantley and Lindor. He was able to put down Carlos Santana (swinging) before he got pulled, and Karns’ sequence of pitches to the Indians’ catcher was a thing of beauty.
…That strike-three change-up.The righty was able to get Carrasco to chase a 2-2 change-up as it tailed off the plate.
Xavier Cedeno helped him finish the sixth, striking out pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn and Brandon Moss to end the two-on threat.
Jake Elmore helped the team add to the lead in the seventh when he hit a sac-fly to left, scoring Steven Souza Jr. from third. Elmore, who has been productive in his time with Tampa Bay, now has 13 RBI — as many as he had prior to this season in the majors.
Steve Geltz, who has been stellar of late, worked a perfect seventh, enabling him to continue his streak of 22 at-bats without allowing a batter to reach base. And while Jake McGee gave up a leadoff single to Jason Kipnis (3-for-4), he was erased on a diving catch by Souza on a bloop to right that was turned into a 9-3 double play.
Brad Boxberger worked the ninth for his 17th save, although he got a little help from The Outlaw, who made a leaping catch in center field for the second out. Boxberger caught Michael Bourn looking with two-on to end the game.
The New What Next
The Rays and Indians continue their weekend set on Saturday. The chronically happy Erasmo Ramirez (6-2, 4.45 ERA) will take the mound for Tampa Bay opposite of 2014 Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (3-8, 3.54 ERA). You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Rays 6/20/15 Starting Lineup
Kiermaier CF
Butler DH
Longoria 3B
DeJesus LF
Forsythe 2B
Souza RF
Cabrera SS
Franklin 1B
Rivera C
Ramirez RHP
Noteworthiness
— The Rays are now 27-5 when scoring first.
— If I may, I don’t know how the Rays could even consider sending Joey Butler back to Triple-A once John Jaso or Desmond Jennings returns:
Over the past 23 games, Souza and Joey Butler have either scored or driven in 43 of the Rays 87 runs (49%).
