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Tampa Bay Rays 2016 Winter Meetings recap: Day one

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Marc Topkin gets the sense that Chris Archer will be a Ray next season. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Marc Topkin gets the sense that Chris Archer will be a Ray next season. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

The first day of the 2016 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings is all but in the books, and so far no earth shattering revelations have broken from the Tampa Bay Rays’ camp. Sure, lots of conversations were had, however, no deals have been made.

That doesn’t mean the day was a wash. A bevy of Rays centric bits from the first day of the Winter Meetings hit the Twitterverse this afternoon, and you can read about those nuggets below.

— The Rays still have interest in free-agent catcher Welington Castillo, however, a deal isn’t expected at the moment. Several other teams are interested in Castillo, and he is expected to net a multiyear deal.

The overall financial commitment to the catcher might be a point of contention, as Castillo was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $5.9-million in arbitration —which itself isn’t a bank breaker — although a multiyear deal could push $15-million. Topkin writes the Braves and Orioles are among other teams reportedly interested, and Castillo’s agents plan to spend the next two days sorting through offers.

— The rumors circulating around Chris Archer have quieted significantly, especially since the Rays have put a hefty price on him. According to Topkin, someone with one of the interested teams said Tampa Bay is asking for 5-6 players in return. Still, Jerry Crasnick (ESPN.com) is predicting the Rays will trade Archer this week to the Cubs.

— Tampa Bay also is getting a lot of hits on Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi. One of the teams said to have interest in Odorizzi is Pittsburgh.

Incidentally, the Rays may be seeking Andrew McCutchen in return.

— The Rays have interest in are LHP Dario Alvarez, who pitched last with Texas. The 27 year-old southpaw posted a 5.06 ERA/4.12 FIP/13.84 K9/2.36 BB9 in 26-2/3 innings (26 games) last season.

— Steve Pearce won’t be reuniting with his former teammates, as he agreed to a two-year, $12.5-million deal with the Blue Jays on Monday. The Rays were in on Pearce, however, the combination of money and a second year from Toronto was the difference.

— Speaking of Pearce, Topkin wrote “…if the Rays are willing to wait, maybe until late in the offseason, there is such a glut of outfield/first base/DH-types available that they should be able to land a pretty good bat.”

—  Washington asked Tampa Bay about Kevin Kiermaier, however, the Nationals’ front office “consider the asking price exorbitant.” Good luck trying to acquire the Gold Glove winning centerfielder, who’s put up a 13.1 fWAR over the last three seasons, and is under team control through 2020. Perhaps Steven Souza Jr. is available for a reunion with his former team?

Rays expected to deal from pitching depth at Winter Meetings

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Trade candidate: LHP Drew Smyly. (Photo Credit: the Associated Press)

Trade candidate: LHP Drew Smyly. (Photo Credit: the Associated Press)

Here we are, on the precipice of the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings, and the Tampa Bay Rays front office team of Matt Silverman, Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom, as well as manager Kevin Cash, are tasked with trying to figure out how to improve the ball club.

Before hitting the highways and byways en route to the meetings in Washington DC, the front office team, and Cash, hosted a press conference, where they provided some insight into their offseason priorities. In spite of a very disappointing 94 loss season, it seems doubtful the team is looking for a top to bottom rebuild. In fact, they feel like they don’t need much. Rather they highlighted three priority upgrade areas: catcher, bullpen, and the addition of an impact hitter who could slot into an outfield/DH role.

Unless they open holes with a big trade, expect to see a strong core of familiar names next season, like Evan Longoria, Matt Duffy, Logan Forsythe, and Brad Miller on the infield, and Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson/Mikie Mahtook in the outfield, with Nick Franklin slotting in as the super utility player.

I’m still amazed at how well Nick adapted to playing the outfield, said Cash. He got out there and after a week looked completely comfortable. To know he can do that, go in at second, third even first adds to that versatility we’re always searching for.

However, that doesn’t speak to the team’s needs.

How will they meet those needs? By way of in-house promotions — expect Ryne Stanek and Jaime Schultz to join Alex Colome, Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno and, if not traded, Erasmo Ramirez in the bullpen — free agent signings, or by trade. And while Silverman and his team will listen to offers on any player, the probability of a roster blow-up is low, especially if they want to be competitive in 2017.

We’re always open for conversation, Silverman said. We don’t turn away conversations. … Our goal is to put a playoff-caliber club on the field and to do that we have to be creative, we have to be willing to make big deals and willing to take … calculated risks in terms of the trades that we make.

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, the best way for the Rays to add the dynamic pieces they need to get back to contention is to take advantage of a barren market and give up one (or more) of the arms from a stash of starters that runs eight deep.

It should be assumed that Chris Archer (and his team-friendly five year, $38.5-million contract) Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Cobb will hear their names pop up frequently over the next five days.

Archer already has garnered a lot of interest from the Braves and now the Astros, but despite the fact Atlanta and Houston has young talent available — infield prospect Ozzie Albies from Atlanta, and Alex Bregman and Francis Martes from Houston — it’s doubtful that Tampa Bay would deal its ace. Besides, the Rays undoubtedly will ask for a king’s ransom in return for Archer.

It is reasonable to assume the front office is more inclined to ship out Smyly, Ramirez or Odorizzi, despite getting less in return.

It’s going to be hard to guess who will be a starter, or who may slot into the bullpen, until the dust settles from this week’s Winter Meetings. Be that as it may, Silverman and company have an opportunity to improve the ball club, and it would be foolish for them to not act.

Trade Candidates

The Rays’ business starts with trading a starter, and here’s one way to rank who should be going (courtesy of Marc Topkin).

1. LHP Drew Smyly

Age: 27. Career stats: 31-27, 3.74, 9.6 WAR
Contract control: Through 2018; third-year arbitration eligible, $7M projection
Quick pitch: Best to part with money-wise but sliding scale if return is worth it

2. RHP Jake Odorizzi

Age: 26. Careers stats: 30-30, 3.75, 8.1 WAR
Contract control: Through 2019, first-year arbitration eligible, $3-4M projection.
Quick pitch: Immense value in being cost effective, healthy and good

3. RHP Erasmo Ramirez

Age: 26. Career stats: 25-29, 4.14, 145 G, 3.3 WAR
Contract control: Through 2019; second-year arbitration eligible $3-4M projection
Quick pitch: Won’t bring as much back but maybe more than you’d think

4. RHP Chris Archer

Age: 28. Career stats: 48-51, 3.51, 128 G, 10.8 WAR
Contract control: Through 2021 for $38.5 million; salaries starting at $4.75M in 2017, then $6.25M, $7.5M, $9M option, $11M option
Quick pitch: Hard to say you’re “hellbent” on competing and trade your top starter

5. RHP Alex Cobb

Age: 29. Career stats: 36-25, 3.44, 86 G, 8.5 WAR
Contract control: Through 2017, third-year arbitration eligible, $4-5M projection
Quick pitch: Wiser after late ’16 return to let him build value with strong first half and deal in July

Rays expected to pursue Welington Castillo; tender 11 arbitration eligible players

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After being non-tendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Rays are expected to pursue catcher Wellington Castillo. (Photo credit: Matt Kartozian/USA Today Sports)

After being non-tendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Rays are expected to pursue catcher Welington Castillo. (Photo credit: Matt Kartozian/USA Today Sports)

The non-tender deadline passed Friday night without much fanfare on the part of the Tampa Bay Rays — the team tendered contracts to all of their 11 arbitration-eligible players. Unexpectedly, however, the Arizona Diamondbacks chose not to tender the contract of catcher Welington Castillo, putting the Rays in a position to acquire the backstop and fill one of their main offseason needs.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays have definite interest and are expected to aggressively pursue Castillo, who slashed .264 BA/.322 OBP/.423 SLG/.745 OPS/.319 wOBA with 14 homers and 68 RBI in 113 games last season. Castillo, considered a passable defender (7.4 zBall%/-24 oStr%/-0.23 PerGame calls/-3.2 RAA in 2016), is an above average hitting catcher who was projected to make $5.9-million entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.

The Rays created room on the 40-man roster — should they pick up Castillo, or acquire another player — by non-tendering former top prospect INF Ryan Brett, who missed 2016 due to injury.

All told, the 11 arbitration eligibles are projected to make around $35-million. Topkin also wrote that includes three who qualified under the Super 2 provision based on service time: Gold Glove winning centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier, reliever Danny Farquhar and infielder Tim Beckham.

Kiermaier, whose two years and 131 days service was believed to be right at the cutoff, will make an additional $2 million, with a projected salary of $2.5 million to $3 million rather than the $540,000 or so he was in line for.

Also, Kiermaier, Faquahar and Beckham get to be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three.

The full list, including projected salaries (Credit: Tim Dierkes/MLB Trade Rumors):

Alex Cobb – $4.0MM
Drew Smyly – $6.9MM
Erasmo Ramirez – $3.5MM
Brad Boxberger – $1.5MM
Corey Dickerson – $3.4MM
Brad Miller – $3.8MM
Xavier Cedeno – $1.2MM
Jake Odorizzi – $4.6MM
Danny Farquhar – $1.1MM
Kevin Kiermaier – $2.1MM
Beckham – $1.15MM

Noteworthiness

— Former Rays infielder Cole Figueroa will join the Rays front office as a baseball development assistant. His assorted duties and responsibilities will include bridging the analytical/onfield information gap, among others.

Figueroa told the Tampa Bay Times he is excited by the prospect of his new job:

It’s something I’ve always been interested in and I got the opportunity to do that so I jumped at it. I think I’ll end up touching a lot of different areas initially.

— The Rays front office isn’t too happy with the collective bargaining agreement struck by the MLBPA and Major League Baseball this week.

Disappointed in what we’ve seen so far, Rays baseball operations president Matt Silverman said in a press conference. I’m not optimistic about the CBA in terms of helping us as a lower-revenue club.

Silverman continued,

Lower revenue clubs face a lot of obstacles, especially when it comes to talent acquisition. We can’t go out and spend like other clubs, so we need to find other avenues to be able to acquire that talent. We’ve looked for additional access on the amateur side, on the international side, and there haven’t been any major changes in the last 10 years. And, in fact, the revenue disparity between clubs has grown by an immense amount.

Then again, they could spend more money, and/or do a better job with the picks they have had.

At the same time, as Topkin wrote Thursday, the Rays are looking at spending around $70 million, so even if they were to “go for it,” they might push $90 million or $100 million for a year, still around half their top foes. That’s not going to solve the problem.

— It appears the Atlanta Braves are still interested in Rays ace Chris Archer.

Trade rumors swirl around Chris Archer, who will pitch for team USA in the WBC

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Tampa Bay Rays hurler Chris Archer seemed to be everywhere at the end of the week. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Tampa Bay Rays hurler Chris Archer was everywhere by week’s end. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Tampa Bay Rays right-handed hurler Chris Archer was everywhere by week’s end.

Archer to pitch for team USA in the World Baseball Classic

On Friday, Archer announced (via his Instagram account) that he had been invited to represent team USA in the World Baseball Classic. The upcoming World Baseball Classic will take place during Spring Training.

“We’ve got to spend more money”

Following his announcement, Archer took to the airwaves on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio, and vocalized what many a frustrated Rays fan has felt for some time — “we’ve got to spend more money” in order to win. The irony, his words come at a time when trade rumors have started swirling around him, and other starters on the starting rotation (more on that below).

Archer later told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he is confident he won’t be dealt, and wants to rouse the ownership and management to make some necessary improvements:

I have very, very good insight and feeling that I’m going to be a Ray for 2017. In order to have the most fun and for it to be most desirable for everybody, these are some of the things that we should do.

Archer suggested the ownership should spend wisely to fill their current needs (bullpen, catcher, leftfield/DH) with proven, established players on the free-agent market, as opposed to Matt Silverman’s initial plan to improve the team by way of trades:

I’m not saying we have to sign somebody for $30 mil; I’m saying let’s find the piece that fits and spend the money on it. We’re searching for these things, but a lot of them are right there in front of us. We have to be willing to stretch beyond what we’ve done here recently.

Archer rattled off two other things his bosses could/should do during the Hot-Stove period ahead of Spring Training.

One, they should stop talking about the “competitive disadvantage” they face, especially when they have advantages both in scouting and metrics based thinking.

I get it. We might not be capable of spending with the Yankees and Red Sox. But if we keep harping on it, then it permeates the minds of the players. And we don’t want the players to think that we’re at any competitive disadvantage.

Two, they should act as though they are committed to winning yearly, rather than gutting the team of key players at the trade deadline or the end of the season; comments that mirror those of the fanbase.

With all those moves, you’re unsure, like, are we trying to do this, are we rebuilding, are we in between? We’re looking at it just like the fans are. … Sometimes I think it’s in question.

It will be interesting to see how the front office responds to Archer’s comments.

The Hot-Stove is heating up

The Rays appear likely to trade at least one of its starting pitchers this off-season, reported Joel Sherman (New York Post) at the conclusion of the General Manager meetings.

Sherman tweeted that the likeliest candidates are Archer, Jake Odorizzi, or Drew Smyly, who is projected to make close to $7-million in arbitration this offseason.

Jon Morosi (FOX Sports) added that the Rays already have fielded calls on Archer from Atlanta, however, the Braves recently announced the signings of Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey. It remains unseen whether the Braves front office simply was kicking the tires on Tampa Bay’s de facto ace, or if something indeed is in the works.

Morosi also reported that Tampa Bay will listen to offers on Evan Longoria this winter, however, don’t expect any traction. While Longoria may never have higher trade value after coming off a revived season — in which he slashed .273 BA/.318 OBP/.521 SLG/.839 OPS/.350 wOBA/123 wRC+ with 41 doubles, 36 homers, and 98 RBI, over 160 games — indications are the team remains uninterested in dealing the face of the franchise, writes Topkin.

Rays host pre-camp media session; ink one-year deal with Ryan Webb

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No visa problems this year. Alex Colome throws during a workout Thursday at Charlotte Sports Park. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

No visa problems this year. Alex Colome throws during a workout Thursday at Charlotte Sports Park. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

As of Thursday, nearly 50 Tampa Bay Rays players are already working out, with the first official session for pitchers and catchers set for Sunday morning.

In a pre-camp media session, President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman said the pieces are in place to contend for a playoff spot, with manager Kevin Cash agreeing whole-heartedly:

How can you not be excited? If you think we’re healthier, which we are right now, and we’ve added to our lineup. We thought  we made some really good adjustments at the end of the year, the last two months, and all they’ve done this offseason is brought some guys in that have a track record of hitting. So, yes.

“I think it’s a great computer,” Cash said when asked about Baseball Prospectus’ 91-win PECOTA projection.

In a piece for the Tampa Bay Times, Marc Topkin listed some highlights from the media session:

― New addition RHP Ryan Webb will add a needed ground ball pitcher to the bullpen, giving the Rays a weapon when they need a double play grounder. (More on Webb below)

― Cash said one  way to manage the Jake McGee-less bullpen is to have relievers able to go one-plus innings, which they will experiment with in spring training. He also said that while Brad Boxberger will be the closer there may not be a set set-up guy.

― Silverman said LH Matt Moore and LH Drew Smyly, who both returned last season from injuries, will come into camp “full go.” Silverman said there will be discussions with the medical staff on managing their workload.

― Team VP Rick Vaughn said there was still no official word on the proposed March trip to Cuba. There are reports President Obama will make a visit in the same March 21-22 window. No word if he will pitch an inning.

― Silverman said C Justin O’Conner is having back issues, and will be behind at start of camp. They will have an update in a few days.

― Cash said Smyly went and stayed with a physical therapist to work on shoulder during off-season and team has gotten “rave reviews.”

― Cash said RHP Jake Odorizzi “put on a little bit more muscle, more weight” and will benefit from more experience

― Cash said OF Desmond Jennings, who missed most of last season with left knee and dental issues, is in a good spot. He took off some weight to “lighten” load on his legs (ie, troublesome left knee) playing OF and to recover quicker.

Silverman also joined the Hot Stove to discuss the PECOTA projections, advanced metrics and more:

…On RHP Ryan Webb

On Thursday, the Rays officially announced the signing of 30 year-old RHP reliever Ryan Webb to a one-year, $1-million Major League deal with incentives, tallying up to $500,000 more based on appearances.

In order to make room for Webb on the 40-man roster, Chase Whitley was added to the 60-day DL. Whiteley is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is expected to be activated in late July.

The question begs, what does Webb offer to the team?

First and foremost, Webb offers veteran experience. The righty has collected 357 games (376 innings pitched) in his 10 professional years, including the finishing of 98 games. He spent most of last season with Cleveland, collecting a 1-0 record and a 3.20 ERA (3.77 FIP) in 40 games. He pitched previously with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles, with a career 17-18 record and a 3.35 ERA (3.43 ERA) in 357 big-league games. He, however, has nary a save under his belt.

According to Brooks Baseball, in 2015 he relied primarily on his 93 mph sinker and 84 mph slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph change-up. He also boasts a 92 mph four-seam fastball which he rarely throws.

Ryan Webb pitch velocity chart. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

Ryan Webb pitch velocity chart. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

The difference in velocity between his sinker and secondary pitches (slider and change-up) is something to take note of. That 10 mph differential should keep batters off balance.

Pitch usage by type. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

Pitch usage by type. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

As Mat Germain (DRaysBay) pointed out, the kiss-off of his four-seam fastball is rather intriguing:

The most curious thing to note here is the complete dismissal of his four seam fastball. I’ll be interested to see if the Rays bring it back some, not much, and if it helps make him more effective overall. What I do like most, however, is the increased confidence in his change up, something that can really help him tie up hitters.

In all likelihood, Webb will end up in a middle relief spot. After all, over the last two seasons, both Cleveland and Baltimore used him sparingly in medium-to-high leverage situations. His projected 55 innings of work in 2016 speaks to that.

Ryan Webb's 2016 Steamer projection.

Ryan Webb’s 2016 Steamer projection.

Germain also touched on Webb’s performance in low, medium, and high leverage situations:

The good result would include his performance each season in low leverage situations, where he held opponents to a .212/.250/.323 line in 2014, but this changed in 2015 when he allowed a worrisome .268/.316/.423 line against and .317 wOBA. On the flip side, he only allowed 2 hits and 1 walk while facing 29 batters in medium and high leverage situations in 2015, which likely indicates he was used in ideal situations.

What most Rays fans likely want to know as well is how well he fared with runners on base and with runners in scoring position. Here are his performances over the last 2 seasons (courtesy Fangraphs):

  • Men on Base: 2014 – .299/.333/.395 over 21.2 IP with a .315 wOBA (only 1 HR allowed)
  • Men on Based: 2015 – .258/.309/.448 over 25 IP with a .318 wOBA (3 HR allowed)
  • Men in Scoring Position: 2014 – .196/.241/.216 over 13.2 IP with a .192 wOBA (no HR allowed)
  • Men is Scoring Position: 2015 – .273/.339/.509 over 14.2 IP with a .351 wOBA (3 HR allowed)

What is enticing about Webb is his ability to coax ground balls. He posted a 59.2% rate in 2015 to go along with a rather paltry 19.7% fly ball rate over his career. That bodes well for Tampa Bay on two fronts.

  1. Who better to have on the mound when playing in the home run friendly ball parks of the AL East? In an ideal world, Webb would be able to limit the damage.
  2. 81 games are played in the confines of the Trop, a historically pitcher friendly park. I’d have to say that speaks for itself.

In the end, the right handed reliever is an above-average pitcher ― as it relates to coaxing ground balls ― which should give the Rays plus infield a good chance to make plays and get out of jams unscathed.