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Rays trade Drew Smyly to Seattle for three minor leaguers; acquire OF from ChiSox

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(Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

(Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

On Wednesday, Erik Neander finally made the pitching deal long expected of the Tampa Bay Rays, trading lefty Drew Smyly to Seattle for center fielder Mallex Smith — who was just acquired by the Mariners in a trade with Atlanta — along with minor  league lefty Ryan Yarbrough, and minor league infielder Carlos Vargas.

Smyly has been a solid, back-end southpaw since his acquisition by Tampa Bay at the 2014 trade deadline, although was sidelined for much of the 2015 season by a torn labrum. He followed with a career-worst 4.88 ERA over 30 starts in 2016. He, however, posted career highs in starts (30) and innings (175-1/3), and managed an 8.6/2.5 K/BB rate. And while he lowered his groundball rate to a career low 31.3%, he allowed a career high 1.64 home runs per nine innings — for a grand total of 32 homers. To his credit, Smyly has consistently thrown strikes and limited walks throughout his career.

The former Ray joins fellow recent acquisition Yovani Gallardo, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton in the rotation. Seattle has control of Smyly for two years, and he is projected to earn $6.9MM via arbitration for the coming season.

Tampa Bay received three minor leaguers in return, one of which — Mallux Smith — has 72-games of big league experience under his belt.

When the Mariners traded for Smith earlier today, in a trade that cost the team a pair of prospects, they did so with the intent to flip him to Tampa Bay. According to Jeff Todd (MLB Trade Rumors), Smith was targeted by the Rays, despite the continued presence of Kevin Kiermaier in center and the recent signing of Colby Rasmus.

The 23 year-old Smith was Atlanta’s number eight prospect entering the 2016 season, and is valued for his defense and base running. As Scott Grauer (DRaysBay) wrote, Smith’s minor league career stolen-base percentage is 79.3 percent (230-for-290). In 1,795 career plate appearances in the minors, he owns a 10.8 percent walk rate and 17.0 percent strikeout rate. He is a career .296 hitter across parts of five minor league seasons, including a .287 mark across 72 games at the Triple-A level with Gwinnett last season.

Smith appeared in 72-games with the Braves last year when Ender Inciarte hit the disabled list. He wasn’t productive early on, slashing a lackluster .238 BA/.316 OBP/.365 SLG/.681 OPS in 215 plate appearances overall, although he rebounded to hit .272 BA/.338 OBP/.440 SLG/.778 OPS in 43 games from late April to mid-June when he suffered a fractured thumb. Smith boasts an 80-grade speed, while his defensive prowess finds him projected as a potential future Gold Glove winner.

Yarbrough, a fourth round pick by Seattle in 2014, was rated as the Mariners’ number 11 prospect by MLB.com. His fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range — topping out in the mid 90’s — and he also features a devastating changeup. The lefty profiles as a ground-ball inducing (51% more groundouts than pop-outs over his career) long man, or a spot starter pending the development of his slider. Even if it doesn’t come along, he has a future as a lefty reliever who can coax ground balls in double-play situations. He will likely start the 2017 season at Triple-A Durham.

According to Todd, Vargas ranked as one of the top international prospects on the market two years ago:

Vargas is still just 17 years of age — he’ll turn 18 in March — and ranked as one of the top available international prospects on the market a couple of years ago. Cooper tweetsthat he was set to rank 26th on Seattle’s forthcoming top 30 prospect list, and there’s reason to believe he could carry even more upside than that most ranking would suggest. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, for instance, tweets that there’s “sneaky” value in Vargas, whom he tabs as eventual third baseman with “big pull power projection” and a good approach.

In writing about Vargas last spring, BA’s Ben Badler noted that he has too many moving parts in his swing but has displayed a strong baseball IQ and an impressive ability to make adjustments at the behest of the Mariners’ staff. Badler also credited Vargas with above-average raw power, an ability to hit the ball the opposite way, and an above-average arm with a quick release. In 62 games/256 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League last year, Vargas batted .242/.344/.391 with seven homers, 11 doubles and nearly as many walks (32) as strikeouts (35).

Tampa Bay also claimed outfielder Jason Coats from the Chicago White Sox, designating Dylan Floro for assignment to clear roster space.

The 26-year-old Coats hit 27 home runs over 200 Triple-A games between 2015 and 2016, however, he batted just .200 with a .298 OBP and .340 SLG in his first 58 major league plate appearances. Baseball America notes that he can cover all three outfield spots.

Floro made his big league debut with Tampa Bay in 2016, posting a 4.20 ERA over 15 relief innings.

Hot-Stove: Rays ink one-year, $5-million deal with Colby Rasmus

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The Tampa Bay Rays inked a one-year, $5-million deal with 30 year-old OF Colby Rasmus on Monday. (Photo Credit: Unknown)

The Tampa Bay Rays inked a one-year, $5-million deal with 30 year-old OF Colby Rasmus on Monday. (Photo Credit: Unknown)

The Tampa Bay Rays have agreed to a one-year, $5-million deal with 30 year-old free agent outfielder Colby Rasmus, reports Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times). The deal comes with incentives that could boost its value to around $7-million.

Rasmus slashed just .206 BA/.286 OBP/.355 SLG/.641 OPS/.257 BABIP/.282 wOBA last season for Houston, following a 2015 campaign in which he batted .238 with a .475 SLG with 25 home runs and 61 RBI and a 117 wRC+ in 137 games. He is coming off of surgeries for a cyst in his ear as well as hip and core muscle maladies — which tends to explain his offensive fall-off.

Rasmus presents another left-handed bat to the outfield along with Kevin Kiermaier and Corey Dickerson. For the Rays, Rasmus will likely slot in at DH and left-field, while serving as a capable backup for Kiermaier in center, where he has spent a good amount of his career. According to Topkin, Dickerson could find himself serving more as a DH next season.

While Erik Neander and the rest of the Rays’ front office hopes for a bounce-back season, in the batter’s box, from Rasmus, the outfielder has drawn strong defensive reviews, especially last year when he posted a +20 DRS, and is known as a good base runner even though he doesn’t often attempt to steal.

It isn’t yet known whether or not the team will continue to pursue a first baseman to platoon with Brad Miller. MLB Trade Rumor’s Jeff Todd spoke to that Monday, saying:

The Rays have also been connected, at least loosely, to a variety of right-handed hitters, including veteran slugger Jose Bautista. It isn’t known at this point whether adding Rasmus will preclude the club from pursuing one of the various first base/DH types still floating around on the market, but it’s certainly possible to imagine multiple acquisitions if the price is right. Tampa Bay is also still reportedly engaged with other organizations about their surplus of capable rotation arms.

Once the deal is made official by the team, the Rays will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Rasmus — be that by trade or otherwise.

Hot Stove: Tampa Bay Rays Offseason Update

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(Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

(Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Introducing our newest writer, Adam Hayes. Adam also heads up “USS Sports Machine,” a blog that covers sports in general. We’re excited to add him in the fold, and here’s to many more pieces like the one below.

Competing in the American League East Division is tough no matter what city you’re from. This statement pales in comparison to the 2016 Tampa Bay Rays’ season. The Rays finished dead last in the division with a 68-94 record. Although a record 3 teams reached the postseason from this division, the Rays finished their season 16 games behind the Yankees, a team that wasn’t included in this post-season grouping. The team doesn’t want to jump to the assumptions that they will now face a rebuild after a third-straight losing season. The team is focusing on retooling and adding depth to the positions that already feature talented arms, prospects or positional standouts.

Steadying the rotation

One area that the team can lean on is their rotation. There are some many arms in their system and on their big-league roster that hold individual potential and intrigue. The model for consistency has been something that was lacking last season and the team doesn’t want to face that again this season. The 5 guys that look like the favorites to lead the rotation at this point are: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly. Looking down at the farm system one will find talents like Matt Andriese, Taylor Guerrieri and Brent Honeywell. The team is very consistent when it comes to developing their talents before calling them up, especially their pool of arms. Snell is the youngest in the rotation at age 24 and Cobb is the oldest at 29.

Snell and Archer mark two names that would be hard to pry away from the Rays, but nothing is out of the question. The way the Red Sox are moving the entirety of their farm system for big arms marks a potential trade situation that would benefit both parties. The Rays don’t have a problem moving their arms either, as long as they receive enough in return. None of these guys really are hurting the team’s cap space and none are too demanding either. Smyly looks like an attractive option to other teams and it could pave the way for the acquisition of an everyday guy and give a younger guy their shot in the bigs.

Position problems

Moving away from pitching leaves the team in a bind at positional play. There is one big problem the team faces with their positional players: they like all their starters. Evan Longoria at third, Matt Duffy at short, Logan Forsythe playing second, Brad Miller at first and one Nick Franklin to fill-in as a backup; this fits the team’s vision. The outfield remains rather consistent in the names that are featured including: Kevin Kiermaier, Steve Souza, Mikie Mahtook and Corey Dickerson. If you take the combined average of these positional players, you are left will a relatively young group. In fact, the Rays roster, as a whole, ranks near the top as one of the league’s youngest on average. This is where the team needs to capitalize. They need to search through the free agent pool and find guys that have been featured members on their teams for many years.

Two names that are brought to the discussion table are Ryan Howard and Pedro Alvarez. Howard had a dismal in Philadelphia last year and that team wants nothing to do with him now. How about swinging in and picking up a former home run leader for a low price? Seems like a good move for a squad that lacks veteran leadership. Alvarez is another attractive option based off his model of consistent play and leadership capabilities. Wilson Ramos was brought in as a serviceable catcher with a mind for the game most of these player’s lack. Look for the team to go older when it comes to free agent signings and if they are to part with their arms, look for additional developmental talents in return or plug-and- play positional players.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays announced eighteen invites to Spring Training for players not currently on the 40-man roster:

LHPs Dana Eveland and Justin Marks; RHPs Diego Moreno, Neil Wagner, Jeff Ames, and Andrew Kittredge; catchers Michael McKenry, Nick Ciuffo, and Jonah Heim; infielders Casey Gillaspie, Dalton Kelly, Jake Bauers, Ryan Brett, Jake Hager, Patrick Leonard; and outfielders Shane Peterson, Johnny Field, and Dayron Varona

Only 52 days and counting until pitchers and catchers report to camp.

— JT Morgan gave a few more specifics about the aforementioned 18 players over at DRaysBay.

— The Houston Astros announced that Root Sports SW has hired Todd Kalas to be their head play-by-play announcer.

Kalas had been with Tampa Bay for 18 seasons serving as a pre and post game host, while also hosting in-game interviews, taking over in the booth when needed, perusing the confines of any given stadium, and partying with pretty much everyone.

Kalas was born in Houston and practically grew up in the booth while his father, Harry Kalas, called games for the Astros.

We too wish Kalas nothing but the best of luck!

Rays 2017 ZiPS projections; bullpen and position player notes

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rays-depth

Tampa Bay Rays projected depth chart and fWAR for 2017. (Credit: FanGraphs)

The 2017 ZiPS projections for the Tampa Bay Rays have been released, and they show some promise for a bounce back year. Still, FanGraphs projects an 82-80 season is in the cards for Tampa Bay. Be that as it may, there is still a lot of off-season left to go, and things should change as deals are made, and players are acquired. Whatever the case, this is how the projections look for the Rays’ depth chart and fWAR (above).

Let’s first start with a disclaimer from FanGraphs, where the Rays 2017 ZiPS projections can be seen in full:

ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. 

For the moment, we’ll be looking at the overall projections, and later we’ll look more deeply into things.

It too would be a good idea to define the statistics mentioned in the charts (below).

  • BA (Batting Average): Rate of hits per at bat, calculated as H/AB.
  • OBP (On Base Percentage): Rate at which the batter reaches base, calculated as (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).
  • SLG (Slugging Percentage): Average number of total bases per at bat, calculated as Total Bases/AB.
  • OPS (On Base Plus Slugging): Combination of OBP and SLG, calculated as OBP+SLG.
  • wOBA (Weighted On Base Average): Combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
  • ERA- and FIP-: ERA Minus, FIP Minus, and xFIP Minus are the pitching version of OPS+ and wRC+ and are a simple way to tell how well a player performed in relation to league average. All of these statistics have a similar scale, where 100 is league average and each point above or below 100 represents a percent above or below league average. However, as lower is better for (almost) all pitching stats, a lower ERA- or FIP- is better.
zips-hitting

2017 ZiPS hitting projections.

zips-pitching

2017 ZiPS pitching projections.

A few bulleted takeaways:

  • No shocker here, ZiPS paints Evan Longoria as the best hitter on the roster when speaking about wOBA (.334). He is expected to regress from last season, although ZiPS sees Longoria posting another 30+ home run season.
  • Sticking with wOBA, Longoria is followed by five hitters who each are projected to post a +.320 wOBA: Logan Forsythe (.329); Steven Souza Jr., Brad Miller, and Kevin Kiermaier (.328); and Corey Dickerson (.322).
  • Logan Forsythe appears to be due for a regression from his 2016 .264 BA/.333 OBP/.444 SLG/.777 OPS/.336 wOBA slash line.
  • Chris Archer is projected to sit atop the starting rotation once again, with Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, and Drew Smyly falling in behind Tampa Bay’s ace.

Noteworthiness

— With the win/loss projection in mind, the Rays appear primed to consider both outside and internal help for their bullpen and lineup.

One internal bullpen option is RHP Ryne Stanek. Rays skipper Kevin Cash told Bill Chastain (MLB.com) Stanek could slot nicely into the Rays’ bullpen.

Really happy about Ryne Stanek. He made some big jumps. Moved him from a starter to the bullpen. He excelled. He got all the way to Triple-A. There was consideration for him to come up (in September). It didn’t work out that way. …But to come into Spring Training knowing that we’ve got a guy, a power arm, I think we’re looking to add some power arms into our bullpen.

Right-hander Jamie Schultz is another option. Schultz’s possesses power stuff that misses bats consistently, and he finished second in the Minors in 2015 with an 11.2 K/9. He boasts a fastball that can reach 98-99 mph with considerable arm-side run, pairing that with a power breaking ball with depth and bite.

However, Schultz’s ability to pound the zone consistently remains a question. He was able to cut down his walks last season with Triple-A Durham, but his control problems have some within the organization believing he’s destined to become a reliever, where he could see an uptick in velocity.

I think you could look at him that way (reliever), Cash said. I don’t think we’re ready to commit one way or the other on him in Spring Training. I don’t think that would be fair to him. It would basically be come into Spring Training, let’s build you up. Let’s compete and see where the cards fall from there.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) while a complete overhaul could still be in order, the Rays feel they have a winning core of players going into 2017. The Rays’ General Manager told Topkin the team believes in the players they have.

I think we’re at a position where we feel like we need to at least play it forward and take a crack at it, Erik Neander said Friday. If the interest and market dictates that we go a different direction, we have to consider it and trust our evaluations. But we believe in a lot of the players we have.

They are still looking for an adept defensive outfielder and a first base/designated hitter type of player to add to its collection of position players. Tampa Bay has discussed left-handed hitters like Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Howard, Brandon Moss and Luis Valbuena, and righties like Billy Butler and the 2016 National League home run co-champion Chris Carter.

Topkin also suggested a reunion with Logan Morrison could be in order, noting the team’s interest in Jose Bautista as well:

…While he seems like a longshot pickup for the low-payroll Rays, they could be in position to pounce on the Tampa Bay-area resident if his market doesn’t develop as hoped this offseason. Plus, because the Rays finished in the bottom 10 of the standings last season, they wouldn’t have to give up a first-round selection to sign Bautista, who rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer. The Rays would instead surrender their competitive balance pick (currently No. 31 overall) in next year’s draft to ink the longtime AL East rival.

— The Rays have discussed RHP Nathan Eovaldi, who was nontendered by the Yankees after Tommy John surgery that will keep him out all, or at least most, of 2017.

— The team has yet to decide on allowing LHP Xavier Cedeno to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Cedeno missed September with neck issues

— LHP Justin Marks inked a minor-league deal with Tampa Bay, with an invitation to Spring Training. The same can be said for former Yankees RHP Diego Moreno.

— According to Peter Gammons, the Rays told the Mets an Alex Colome deal would have to start with young OF Michael Conforto or top SS prospect Amed Rosario.

Rays officially sign Wilson Ramos; DFA Justin O’Conner

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Meet the Rays newest catcher, Wilson Ramos. (Photo Credit: Geoff Burke/USA Today Sports)

Meet the Rays newest catcher, Wilson Ramos. (Photo Credit: Geoff Burke/USA Today Sports)

The Tampa Bay Rays officially announced the signing of free-agent catcher Wilson Ramos on Monday. As we reported December 7, Ramos inked a two-year deal, $12.5-million with another $5.75-million in incentives. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Rays designated Justin O’Conner for assignment.

Ramos is recovering from right knee surgery to repair his ACL and two meniscus tears, and initially was not expected to return to action until June or July at the latest. However, Ramos took part in a conference call Monday morning, and said he expects to return by early May, at least as a designated hitter, and then work in behind the plate — putting him about a month ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation.

Ramos also said he was looking to sign with an American League team for that opportunity, since he would be available as a DH  before he was ready to catch.

In spite of the injury he incurred on September 26, Ramos put together a stellar season with the Nationals, hitting .307 with 22 home runs, 80 RBI and .850 OPS. He was the top free-agent catcher available on the free-agent market entering the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings.

Rays senior VP Chaim Bloom said, “A healthy Wilson Ramos is one of the best all-around catchers in baseball,” in a team press release that you can read below in its entirety.

…Few players at the position can impact all facets of the game like he can. We’re excited for what Wilson will contribute to both our offense and our pitching staff, and we look forward to getting him back on the field soon.

Ramos, 29, made the National League All-Star Team in 2016, batting .307/.354/.496 (148-for-482) with 22 home runs and 80 RBI in 131 games (122 starts) with the Washington Nationals. Among NL catchers, he ranked first in slugging pct., tied for first in RBI, second in batting avg., second in home runs to Yasmani Grandal (Dodgers) and tied for second in extra-base hits (47). His .307 avg. ranked ninth among all NL qualifiers. He also led the majors with a 3.45 catcher’s ERA and threw out 33.3 pct. (16-of-48) of attempted base stealers, third in the NL. Following the season, he won the NL’s Silver Slugger Award among catchers and received two eighth-place votes for NL Most Valuable Player, tying for 17th in the overall balloting.

Ramos was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent in 2004. He made his major league debut with the Twins in 2010 but was traded to the Nationals at the trade deadline that season. Over parts of seven major league seasons, he has hit .269/.313/.430 (574-for-2,136) with 83 home runs and 321 RBI.

According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the incentives in Ramos’ deal include some protection for the Rays, with a $2 million increase in his 2018 base salary (from $8.5 million to $10.5 million) based on starting 55 games at catcher and not going back on the DL due to the knee. There are other incentives for games caught and plate appearances.

To make room on the 40-man roster, the Rays designated longtime, and often-injured, catching prospect Justin O’Conner for assignment. O’Conner was a first-round draft pick for Tampa Bay in 2010, having been considered the top catching prospect in the Rays’ farm system, yet injuries have been an issue. He was limited to 20 minor-league games last season due to a back strain suffered while driving to Spring Training. The team also revealed that O’Conner underwent back surgery twice this off-season, in October and November.

Still O’Conner — who the Rays would be open to re-signing (to a minor-league deal) should he clear waivers — projects as a power hitting back up catcher with an 80-grade throwing arm.

It’s been a battle for him, Bloom said. Obviously it’s not out of the question certainly that he’s going to be able to be active in 2017, but we’re a ways away from that right now.

Noteworthiness

— Per Topkin, by way of the Rays VP of Baseball Operations, Tampa Bay remains “very active” in trade discussions since the winter meetings, though with “no timetable” for any deals. In addition to their starters, the Rays may now get more interest in closer Alex Colome — who would come at a high price — with Kenley Jansen re-signing with the Dodgers.

If the Rays were to deal Colome, Brad Boxberger would likely slot into the closer’s role.

— It would appear that the Seattle Mariners are interested in one of the Rays starting pitchers.

The most likely hurlers to be traded are Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, or Erasmo Ramirez, as Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi would cost any interested ball club a rather large sum.

— Adam Sanford (DRaysBay) profiled Wilson Ramos. The long, in depth piece is worth the read.