The ceremonial second half of the season will start for the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, when they kick off a three-game road series in Cobb County, where they’ll face the Atlanta Whatsoevers — name precluded for fairly obvious reasons. With the 2021 All-Star Break in the rearview mirror, there is no time like the present to recap the Rays’ first half of the season.
Record: 53-37, 15-games over .500, .589 WP%
Place in the division: second place, 1.5 games behind the Red Sox
Home record: 28-17, .622 WP%
Away record: 25-20, .566 WP%
Record vs. the division: 24-14, .632 WP%
Longest winning streak: 11 games
Longest losing streak: 7 games
Playoff odds: 94.8% (Baseball-Reference), 79.4% (Baseball Prospectus), 69.2% (FanGraphs)
Of note: PECOTA now projects the Rays to end the season in first place in the American League East with a 92-70 record — one game ahead of the Red Sox, who will have a tougher schedule in the second half.
Number of All-Stars: three; Mike Zunino, Joey Wendle, and Andrew Kittredge
Pitching
Starters: 22-19, 3.73 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.76 xFIP
Ryan Yarbrough (96.1 IP) leads the staff in innings pitched, followed by Rich Hill (91.1 IP), Tyler Glasnow (88.0 IP), Josh Fleming (69.0 IP), Shane McClanahan (60 IP), and Michael Wacha (57.1 IP). With Glasnow sidelined at least until mid-to-late August or September, it’s unlikely he’ll surpass 120 innings. Yarbrough is on a pace for 172 innings while Rich Hill could reach 165 innings if he put together a similar second half. Yarbrough is better equipped to handle the workload given that he threw 145 innings two seasons ago, while Hill amassed +130 innings in 2017 and 2018, although he only has surpassed 150 innings once, back in 2007. Expect Kevin Cash to be less judicious in allowing Hill to pitch deeply into ball games if not to overtax the veteran lefty.
Fleming is on a pace for 132 IP, which is what the team was hoping for at the start of the season. A short stint on the Injured List plus inning’s management has slowed down the left-hander’s workload, yet Fleming hurled 149 innings two seasons ago. McClanahan is on a pace to throw 100 innings, while Wacha is set for roughly 102 innings; both appear able to handle larger workloads pending their effectiveness on the mound.
In addition, Luis Patiño has thrown 43.2 IP between the big leagues and Durham and likely could carry a larger workload in the second half. Chris Archer, who has been sidelined since April 10, should have no innings limit when he is activated from the 60-Day IL. The right-hander made his first rehab start Monday with the Rays’ Florida Complex League affiliate, although he will require multiple rehab starts before he returns to the big league roster. He is expected to shift his rehab to Triple-A Durham this upcoming weekend. Brendan McKay is rehabbing from shoulder surgery and is pitching in games in Port Charlotte. These three should be able to help Tampa Bay in a starting or bulk role, although it is not out of the realm of possibility that Tampa Bay could acquire another arm with the trade deadline looming.
If his numbers across two minor league levels (and his outing during the Future’s Game) are any indications, Shane Baz (51.2 IP across Double-A and Triple-A) likely will contribute to the Rays at some point this season, especially down the stretch. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) pointed out, Joe Ryan (53 IP) and Drew Strotman (53.1 IP) also could help at some point this season.
Relievers: 31-18, 3.26 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.78 xFIP
With 43.0 innings under his belt, All-Star hurler Andrew Kittredge is on a pace for 78 innings of work. That, however, is manageable for the right-hander given that he saw 87 innings of work in 2019 between the minors and majors.
Otherwise, with the exceptions of Ryan Thompson (36 appearances, 34 IP) and Jeffrey Springs (36 appearances, 38.0 IP, all of Tampa Bay’s relievers are on a pace for fewer than 60 appearances. To that end, J.P. Feyereisen (39 appearances, 38.2 IP) also has had a fairly high workload between stints with the Brewers and Rays.
That gives the team the opportunity to reduce Thompson, Springs, and Feyereisen’s workloads should they choose. In doing so, they could rely on the other relievers to balance things out. Pete Fairbanks has appeared in 28 games accounting for 26.1 innings of work, while Diego Castillo has appeared in 33 games for a total of 32.1 innings of work. Breaking ballers Matt Wisler and Collin McHugh have appeared in 29 appearances (27.2 innings between Rays and Giants) and 21 games ( 37.2 IP) respectively, and theoretically could handle a bit more work … although given how valuable McHugh has proven to be, it’s reasonable to assume that Kevin Cash will roll him out strategically.
As Solondz noted, “That also doesn’t account for Drew Rasmussen (29 appearances, 37 innings), and Tampa Bay could get Oliver Drake or Nick Anderson back from injury. Either or all of those three could lessen the load for the others. In addition, Tampa Bay has several arms with options that can assist, like Louis Head (30.2 innings between Durham and the Rays), Brent Honeywell Jr (27.2 IP), Chris Mazza (32.0 IP), and Ryan Sherriff (19.1 innings). In addition, Sean Poppen is on the 40-man roster, and Dietrich Enns (48.0 IP) and David Hess (36.0 innings) are non-roster options that have performed well in Durham in multi-inning roles.” There also is the potential for the Rays to seek arms at the trade deadline.
Offense
Combined first half slash line: .230 BA/.315 OBP/.396 SLG/.711 OPS/.311 wOBA/.166 ISO/101 wRC+
After getting off to a slow start, Tampa Bay began to turn things around in May when they rattled off 11 consecutive wins which lifted them into first place in the division. The Rays have since mostly occupied second place behind Boston, which is where they find themselves heading into the back half of the season.
The youth movement — let the kids play — has helped to elevate the team. Taylor Walls, Wander Franco, and Vidal Bruján arrived in St. Petersburg between May and now.
All-Star catcher Mike Zunino also has been a big reason why the team is again on solid footing.
Not only has Zunino continued to handle the pitching staff well, but his power surge — .529 SLG, .332 ISO, and 19 homers — has been noteworthy. And while Zunino has launched at least 20 homers three times in his career (all with Seattle), he is on the doorstep of 20 at the break.
Meanwhile, the Rays’ most valuable player thus far is All-Star infielder Joey Wendle, who has performed to a 2.5 WAR thanks to a .275 BA/.336 OBP/.450 SLG/.786 OPS/.336 wOBA line and five defensive runs saved. He is followed by Randy Arozarena with a 2.2 WAR, and Glasnow with a 2.1 WAR. Then there’s Austin Meadows who’s slashed .240 BA/.334 OBP/.474 SLG/.808 OPS/.346 wOBA with 16 homers and 58 RBI, and Brandon Lowe who has really turned it on of late.
Superlatives aside, while the team is built to play close games, it has not done very well in them, going 11-14 in one-run games and a league-worst 3-9 in extra-inning contests with a -12 run differential. On top of that, of the first 37 games the Rays have lost, they led in 18. Tampa Bay also has eight walk-off losses under its belt.
The Rays haven’t fared well against left-handed pitching, slashing a combined .225 BA/.304 OBP/.373 SLG/.677 OPS with a .148 ISO and a 91 wRC+. Wilmer Flores — who boasts a 111 wRC+ overall, and a 116 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching — could be an intriguing trade target at the deadline.
Conclusion
Keeping their see-saw season in mind, there are reasons to like the Rays’ chances of reaching the postseason for the third consecutive year. First off, they enter the second half maintaining the top Wildcard spot with 72 games left to play. Also, if they can continue to perform at their current pace (.589 WP%) they are on a course to win 95 games. Consider, too, that 44 of the final 72 games (61%) come against teams currently performing to a .500 WP% or below, including 13 games against the Orioles — against whom the Rays are 6-0 — and seven games each against the Tigers and Twins. In other words, Tampa Bay has a very favorable second-half schedule giving them the opportunity to rattle off a good number of wins.