After ending the most recent homestand with a 4-1 record, including a three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays make their way to the south side of Chicago, where they will start a three-game series against the American League Central-leading White Sox. Chicago is coming off a three-game sweep of the Tigers.
The Rays enter play 42-24 on the season — 18-games over .500, three games over the Boston Red Sox in the American League East, and with the best winning percentage in baseball.
The Rays enter the south side of Chicago hot, however, they will be facing one of the best all-around teams in baseball. Not only can Chicago shut teams down defensively, but they also have an offense that can break games wide open.
The Rays’ offense has been up and down, although the numbers are again trending upward. What’s more, they have also fared better on the road where they maintain a .238 BA/.324 OBP/.414 SLG/.738 OPS/.322 wOBA/106 wRC+ slash line and average 5.97 runs per game. Even so, the White Sox have held opponents to a .222 BA/.289 OBP/.358 SLG/.648 OPS slash line, so Tampa Bay will need to battle, scratch across a few early runs, and let the pitching staff do what it does best — shut down run production. The Rays now boast an AL-best 3.05, including a 1.59 mark in the last 17 games.
As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, “The biggest difference between the two teams is on the defensive end, where the Rays have the fewest errors (25) and the most defensive runs saved in the game. The White Sox are sixth in MLB with 44 errors committed and are more in the middle of the pack when it comes to other defensive metrics. Tampa Bay also is an MLB best 26–16 against clubs with winning records, while Chicago is 11–16.”
Let’s call this series what it is: a preview of the 2021 postseason. Expect three nailbiter games before the Rays head out west.
Due to the pandemic, the Rays did not face Chicago last season. However, in 2019, the Rays went 4-2 against the White Sox and 3-0 on the south side of the Windy City.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 2.57 ERA), Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.54 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (4-3, 3.63 ERA) in some capacity the next three days. Tony La Russa will counter with Lance Lynn (7-1, 1.23 ERA), Dallas Keuchel (5-1, 4.14 ERA), and Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.81 ERA).
Tyler Glasnow got the start against Washington on Tuesday and worked at least seven innings for the fourth time in five starts, striking out 11 and walking just one on 114 pitches (77 strikes, 68% K%). The right-hander reached double digits in punchouts for the seventh time this season and collected 27 swings and misses (35% SwStr%), which tied the most by a Tampa Bay pitcher in the pitch-tracking era. The only damage Glasnow allowed came in the third inning after Starlin Castro singled against the shift to right-center to open the frame. Then with one out, Kyle Schwarber walked before Trea Turner singled to right-center, scoring Castro to tie the game at one apiece. Still, Glasnow got Juan Soto to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, limiting damage and ending the inning. This season, Glasnow has performed to a 2.57 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 4.5 K/BB across 84 innings.
Lance Lynn allowed only one run on four hits and no walks over seven innings against Toronto on Wednesday. He struck out nine. The right-hander surrendered a second-inning solo home run to Randal Grichuk but otherwise kept Toronto off the board during his start. Lynn has now allowed one run or fewer in eight of his 11 turns this season, helping him post a minuscule 1.23 overall ERA that ranks second in baseball behind Jacob deGrom. He has also boasts a 4.24 K/BB across 65-2/3 innings along with a 0.88 WHIP. The right-hander relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action and an 89 mph cutter with heavy sink, while also mixing in a 93 mph sinker with some natural sinking action. Lynn is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA in six career outings (five starts) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-3, BB), Manuel Margot (4-6), Joey Wendle (3-9, RBI)
Shane McClanahan struggled in his outing Wednesday against Washington, surrendering three runs on five hits and three walks over three innings. He struck out four. McClanahan was wildly inefficient in the start, needing 77 pitches (45 strikes, 58% strike rate) to retire nine batters. He was stung by a pair of homers and could have had an even worse outcome if not for the Nationals, who stranded five runners during his outing. This was the second consecutive poor outing for McClanahan, who has allowed seven total runs and 10 hits over his past 6-1/3 innings of work.
Dallas Keuchel gave up two runs on six hits and two walks across six innings Thursday against Toronto. He struck out eight. Over his last seven starts, Keuchel is 4-0 with four quality starts and a 2.5 K/BB. The veteran southpaw has also given up two runs or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, and he has improved his ERA to a respectable 4.14 as a result. He relies primarily on an 88 mph sinker with heavy sinking action, an 80 mph worm-killer changeup that dives down out of the zone, and an 86 mph cutter with natural sink and strong cutting action, while also mixing in a 77 mph slider that sweeps across the zone and has exceptional depth. Keuchel is 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays. Key Matchup: Mike Zunino (7-27, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)
Ryan Yarbrough got the start against Baltimore on Friday and allowed two unearned runs on three hits across six solid innings. He struck out six Orioles and walked none on 79 pitches (56 for strikes, 71% strike rate). The only runs to score on Yarbrough came on a third-inning two-run shot off the bat of Trey Mancini, although they weren’t marked as earned runs since they followed a fielding error by the left-hander. Yarbrough lowered his season ERA to 3.63 and moved above .500 for the first time this season. He hasn’t taken a loss since April 30 and now owns a 4.92 K/BB.
Lucas Giolito allowed two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out nine over six innings on Friday against Detroit. It was the fourth quality start over the last five appearances of Giolito, who maintains a 2.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP during that stretch. The right-hander relies primarily on a 94 mph four-seam fastball that has some added backspin and a whiffy 82 mph changeup, while also mixing in an 86 mph slider with 12-6 movement. He is 1-0 with a 1.30 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Austin Meadows (2-3), Mike Zunino (1-3)
Noteworthiness
— 1B/DH Ji-Man Choi (left groin tightness) has been activated from the Injured List. To create room on the 26-man roster for Choi, INF Mike Brousseau has been optioned to Triple-A Durham.