Surely you’ve heard the news by now, David Price was traded to Detroit as part of a three-team trade with the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers. The internet has been abuzz all day (us included) with every minor detail surrounding this major deal, that left some feeling adulation and others feeling a sense of despair.
Sigh… And so it goes.
The Rays started the day with the odds of finding a post-season berth nestled somewhere between 10-20% — and rising — given the team’s winning ways. Those winning ways were due in large part to Price’s resurgence toward the beginning of June. We were led to believe that Andrew Friedman had to be blown away by what another team may pony up for Price.
Rumors spread that the Dodgers considered two of their top three prospects, while the Cardinals much touted prospect Oscar Taveras was largely regarded as trade fodder as well. Yet Tampa Bay walked away with Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and an eighteen year-old “very highly regarded” shortstop prospect named Willy Adames.
“I wasn’t expecting this to happen,” Alex Cobb said. He went on, ” The Number one message needs to be is the fact there will no quitting in the clubhouse. We’re not throwing in the white towel.”
Cobb and the rest of the team may not be throwing in the towel, but it sure as hell feels like the front may have.
#Rays Silverman: “No it’s not waving a white flag at all; it certainly makes our journey more difficult.”
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 31, 2014
To be fair, Drew Smyly is good (more on him below) and the overall drop off in the rotation will not be severe. However, we’re left with a pair of unproven prospects who essentially offer the Rays nothing in the here and now, while the team tries to stay relevant going into August and September. I can’t help but agree with the sentiment espoused by Daniel Russell of DRaysBay,
The Rays only traded away their best pitcher, and they got a return like he was John Lackey.
Hear, hear!
Russell continued,
Prospects are a risk, but they hold so much promise, so much hope. Think back to the Matt Garza trade. If three of those four prospects are never grievously injured, they are contributing to this Rays roster today at a high level. I believed in those names, even though it never came to fruition. Then there’s the young short stop Adames. I’m sure he has upside, but when you’re dealing with an organization known for it’s scouting ability above all else, why would they give up a piece with enough upside to make this deal worth the cost we’ve heard about for ages?
It’s hard for me to feel anything but ambivalence. The surface perception is that the Rays traded away talent for salary control of a recently demoted infielder, and Detroit’s fifth starter. The question begs: Was this move about the money and Price’s impending $20 MM next year? You can draw your own conclusion, based on the words of the Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg,
I can’t thank (Price) enough for his contributions to the organization these past eight years, and we will clearly miss him. These are difficult decisions we are forced to confront. Our fans have come to understand that, just as our organization has learned to operate with the challenges posed by the economic model, and the growing disparity in our sport.
All things equal, this feels like a weak trade. The Rays got a plus one WAR starter (4.9 overall) — who’s slated to start against Jason Hammel in Oakland, Tuesday — and absolutely no one else to shore up the bullpen or bolster the team in the present. In the short-term, this frankly sucks. The long-term fails to be seen.
It all boils down to this: Tampa Bay was going to deal Price at some point, be it now or in the offseason. Since all indications pointed to Price having a greater value going into the trade deadline, we (arguably) should have seen a deal on par with that of James Shields. However, on paper, this is a far cry from that trade — by a long shot. Perception is everything. For a team that’s “not waiving the white flag,” actions sure speak louder than words.
Enter Drew Smyly:
“Who is the Rays newest pitcher?” you may be asking. The short, Smyly owns a 16-12 career record, a 3.46 ERA, and a .192 avg. vs. left-handed batters.
- He is very try tough on lefties.
- He is prone to giving up home runs (his 1.26 HR/9 speaks to that).
- His +4 FIP is largely predicated on the 14 homers he’s given up.
- Smyly strands a lot of runners on base.
Patrick OKennedy (of Bless You Boys) wrote in March,
Smyly had the lowest WHIP and the lowest ERA in the American League last year among all pitchers, starters included, who threw at least 70 innings. He trailed only Chris Sale and David Price in K/BB ratio among lefties, and led the world in winning percentage, as he had a record of 6-0. Smyly has demonstrated the ability to get hitters out at the major league level. He has struck out a batter per inning in his two major league seasons, with a combined ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.17. He doesn’t walk many, just 2.6 per nine innings… It’s just a matter of being efficient with his innings.
On Nick Franklin:
Here’s a good background piece on the Rays new INF Nick Franklin. Rays Index put together a graph comparing the final two minor league seasons of Ben Zobrist and Nick Franklin. And though this whole trade is a bitter pill to swallow, it does soften the blow a little.
Noteworthiness
When you consider that the surplus value for Adames, Franklin, and Smyly are somewhere in the ballpark of $103 MM, this deal looks good over the long haul. I’m no less grizzled about the present, but at least there’s an upside.
Your tweets of the day:
No fun losing a David Price. Hate it. But we have to do what is best for our group. Continue to move it forward and that’s what we’ve done. — Joe Maddon (@RaysJoeMaddon) July 31, 2014
‘Good things come to those who Believe, Better things come to those who are Patient, and the best Things come to those who Do not Give Up’
— Sarah Maddon (@SarahMaddon) July 31, 2014